Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week

[Con te Giolito]

TOR starters dont have an ERA of 4. And for those who are FIP adherents Archer's FIP wasn't much better. He struck a lot of guys out and pitched 200 innings, which is good, but he wasn't very effective last year. Definitely wouldn't go into 2017 expecting him to be anything more than a 3, and a good one at that.

 

He could certainly bounce back and pitch like a 2 (he's never really been a 1, and neither has Quintana) but I wouldn't count on it.

[Dick Allen]

Archer has been worth about 1 WAR a year less than Q the last 3 years. His career ERA is 0.10 higher, his career FIP is similarly lower. He averages about .7 more walks per 9 and a little over 2 more strikeouts over 9. He is signed for about the same money, but for an extra year. He is pretty freaking valuable and could very well be more attractive to some teams than Q. But I don't think he is realistically available right now. Fangraphs claimed he had more surplus value than Chris Sale.

 

If Chris Archer is your # 3 your rotation is pretty stacked at the top.

Edited January 20, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Chicago White Sox]

TOR starters dont have an ERA of 4. And for those who are FIP adherents Archer's FIP wasn't much better. He struck a lot of guys out and pitched 200 innings, which is good, but he wasn't very effective last year. Definitely wouldn't go into 2017 expecting him to be anything more than a 3, and a good one at that.

 

He could certainly bounce back and pitch like a 2 (he's never really been a 1, and neither has Quintana) but I wouldn't count on it.

I really think you're underrating him, his HR/FB rate looks like a clear outlier to me. With any semblance of a bounce back, he's at least a legit #2 starter.

[TheFutureIsNear]

TOR starters dont have an ERA of 4. And for those who are FIP adherents Archer's FIP wasn't much better. He struck a lot of guys out and pitched 200 innings, which is good, but he wasn't very effective last year. Definitely wouldn't go into 2017 expecting him to be anything more than a 3, and a good one at that.

 

He could certainly bounce back and pitch like a 2 (he's never really been a 1, and neither has Quintana) but I wouldn't count on it.

 

So because it fits your agenda you're going to choose last years #'s alone and ignore the other 500+ innings of sub 3.35 ERA in his career? Like no other pitcher has ever had a down year before? Makes total sense...

 

I'm not saying Archer should have more value than Q, but thy are certainly very comparable talents despite different pitching styles. Don't think it would shock anyone if Archer was slightly better than Q in 2017.

[Con te Giolito]

So because it fits your agenda you're going to choose last years #'s alone and ignore the other 500+ innings of sub 3.35 ERA in his career? Like no other pitcher has ever had a down year before? Makes total sense...

 

I'm not saying Archer should have more value than Q, but thy are certainly very comparable talents despite different pitching styles. Don't think it would shock anyone if Archer was slightly better than Q in 2017.

Yup I'm using recent results to make a judgment on a player because it "fits my agenda". Wanna know an example of a pitch who's never had a down year? Jose Quintana.

[Con te Giolito]

I couldn't guess how something like that figures into Hahn's analysis when dealing but this is 100%. Quintana is beloved by everybody. Teammates, coaches, executives, media, etc. Dude is a class act.

 

Since joining the Sox, Q has been working his off to learn English and make it so he doesn't have to struggle through media when they interview him. Guys like Melky Cabrera or Alexei Ramirez were in the states for several years and definitely knew English, but it wasn't great and they weren't trying to interview in English. I am not dissing them for not wanting to go through that daunting task or saying everyone should do what Q does, but it just speaks to Q's approach and professionalism.

This indicates to me that the Sox would let non-baseball things have an affect on what should be a strictly baseball decision. If Eaton and Sale went so too should Quintana. Either rebuild or dont.

[Dick Allen]

Yup I'm using recent results to make a judgment on a player because it "fits my agenda". Wanna know an example of a pitch who's never had a down year? Jose Quintana.

If you want recent results, look at Archers second half. Pretty nice.

[Con te Giolito]

If you want recent results, look at Archers second half. Pretty nice.

Quintana had just as good a second half from an ERA standpoint.

 

Nobody is really making any sort of convincing argument that Archer should be worth more than Quintana. The $2m AAV is pretty much meaningless and the 5th extra year of control could just as easily be a blessing or a curse. Quintana is the better pitcher and he's a lefty. He's the guy the Astros should and probably would rather have. The original argument was the Astros could "easily" view Archer and Quintana as equals, I think that idea is far fetched to say the least.

[Soxbadger]

This indicates to me that the Sox would let non-baseball things have an affect on what should be a strictly baseball decision. If Eaton and Sale went so too should Quintana. Either rebuild or dont.

 

Actually these are baseball things. Q being a harder worker, good teammate, etc., has baseball value. Lets use the following hypothetical:

 

The Sox believe that Sale would not perform very well in a rebuild. They think his "problems" may be exacerbated if the team is terrible. They believe that if he has further "problems" on/off the field, his value may decline. Furthermore they are concerned that Sale's "attitude" may rub off on young players and create a bad atmosphere.

 

Conversely, Q has been a model teammate and worker. He never complains. They believe Q will perform just the same during a rebuild. They also believe that Q's "attitude" may rub off on other young players and create a positive atmosphere.

 

In this hypothetical, holding out for the "best" trade for Q whereas settling for slightly less than the "best" trade for Sale, is a defensible baseball decision. With Sale, the Sox worry that he could do something to crater his value or potentially negatively impact their future assets. With Q the Sox do not have that worry, and as a bonus believe he may have a positive value on their future assets.

Edited January 21, 2017 by Soxbadger

[ChiSox59]

Quintana had just as good a second half from an ERA standpoint.

 

Nobody is really making any sort of convincing argument that Archer should be worth more than Quintana. The $2m AAV is pretty much meaningless and the 5th extra year of control could just as easily be a blessing or a curse. Quintana is the better pitcher and he's a lefty. He's the guy the Astros should and probably would rather have. The original argument was the Astros could "easily" view Archer and Quintana as equals, I think that idea is far fetched to say the least.

 

His last two years, just like Quintana, are team options. So there certainly won't be any curses.

[Con te Giolito]

Actually these are baseball things. Q being a harder worker, good teammate, etc., has baseball value. Lets use the following hypothetical:

 

The Sox believe that Sale would not perform very well in a rebuild. They think his "problems" may be exasperated if the team is terrible. They believe that if he has further "problems" on/off the field, his value may decline. Furthermore they are concerned that Sale's "attitude" may rub off on young players and create a bad atmosphere.

 

Conversely, Q has been a model teammate and worker. He never complains. They believe Q will perform just the same during a rebuild. They also believe that Q's "attitude" may rub off on other young players and create a positive atmosphere.

 

In this hypothetical, holding out for the "best" trade for Q whereas settling for slightly less than the "best" trade for Sale, is a defensible baseball decision. With Sale, the Sox worry that he could do something to crater his value or potentially negatively impact their future assets. With Q the Sox do not have that worry, and as a bonus believe he may have a positive value on their future assets.

I like Jose Quintana, I like watching him pitch and I like having him around.

 

But, his positive attitude and professionalism will be of less usefulness for the next two years of bad White Sox baseball than what he can fetch in a trade right now. Sox need ballplayers, they need them of the young, talented and controllable variety and they need them in great quantity. This is not the "keep guys because you like them" kind of offseason, this is burn down the forest and start over fresh. By the time the Sox are contending again, at the earliest 2019, Quintana will only have two years left on his contract. Wasting his age 28 and 29 seasons on a ballclub that is almost certain to finish last in the AL Central when that value could've been cashed in for prospects is totally inexcusable.

 

Its a not a decision anyone wants to make, I know it'll be a bittersweet moment for me if he's dealt, but it has to be done. After trading away Sale and Eaton and making only one 2017 acquisition (which was Derek f'in Holland) there is no reasonable hope of contention this year and probably none the year after. He's gotta go, and the Sox personal feelings about him need to be set aside in this kind of business decision. The positive influence he'll have on younger players is literally dwarved by the prospect of adding 4 or 5 names to the org top 30 and, chances are, at least one to the top 5.

[Con te Giolito]

His last two years, just like Quintana, are team options. So there certainly won't be any curses.

Alright, so I guess there's slightly less risk there. I still think teams care 20 times more about the player than the contract.

[Soxbadger]

I like Jose Quintana, I like watching him pitch and I like having him around.

 

But, his positive attitude and professionalism will be of less usefulness for the next two years of bad White Sox baseball than what he can fetch in a trade right now. Sox need ballplayers, they need them of the young, talented and controllable variety and they need them in great quantity. This is not the "keep guys because you like them" kind of offseason, this is burn down the forest and start over fresh. By the time the Sox are contending again, at the earliest 2019, Quintana will only have two years left on his contract. Wasting his age 28 and 29 seasons on a ballclub that is almost certain to finish last in the AL Central when that value could've been cashed in for prospects is totally inexcusable.

 

Its a not a decision anyone wants to make, I know it'll be a bittersweet moment for me if he's dealt, but it has to be done. After trading away Sale and Eaton and making only one 2017 acquisition (which was Derek f'in Holland) there is no reasonable hope of contention this year and probably none the year after. He's gotta go, and the Sox personal feelings about him need to be set aside in this kind of business decision. The positive influence he'll have on younger players is literally dwarved by the prospect of adding 4 or 5 names to the org top 30 and, chances are, at least one to the top 5.

 

The post is based on the idea of why the Sox may hold onto Quintana for the "best" deal. If you believe the rumors, teams have "upped" their offer and the Sox still arent saying "yes". To me that indicates that the previous offers must not have been close.

 

Again a hypothetical:

 

I believe an item is worth $100. You offer $25, I say no. You offer $50, I say no. Should I sell my item at 50% value just because you upped the offer?

 

Now conversely if the original offer was $90 and then they upped it to $95, maybe you say yes because youre only losing 5%.

 

I dont have any inside information, so I have no clue what the offers are, or how close they are. But if I was to read between the lines, I believe that original offers were not close to what the Sox wanted.

[Con te Giolito]

The post is based on the idea of why the Sox may hold onto Quintana for the "best" deal. If you believe the rumors, teams have "upped" their offer and the Sox still arent saying "yes". To me that indicates that the previous offers must not have been close.

 

Again a hypothetical:

 

I believe an item is worth $100. You offer $25, I say no. You offer $50, I say no. Should I sell my item at 50% value just because you upped the offer?

 

Now conversely if the original offer was $90 and then they upped it to $95, maybe you say yes because youre only losing 5%.

 

I dont have any inside information, so I have no clue what the offers are, or how close they are. But if I was to read between the lines, I believe that original offers were not close to what the Sox wanted.

Well it depends what you're selling and who you're selling it to. Quintana, like all athletes after a certain age, is a depreciating asset.

 

Your car right now KBB's at $10k but after another year of use would be only worth $7500. You have an offer on the table for $8k. Maybe you hold out and sell it for more waiting for the right buyer, but while you do that the car is continues to add mileage and years and depreciates because of that. Not only that, you run the risk of suffering a major breakdown, which would mean shelling out for repairs or selling the car for (basically) scrap. Also, you dont need this car anymore because you can walk to work...so your having it is an expensive convenience and poor allocation of resources.

Edited January 21, 2017 by Con te Giolito

[Soxbadger]

Well it depends what you're selling and who you're selling it to. Quintana, like all athletes after a certain age, is a depreciating asset.

 

Your car right now KBB's at $10k but after another year of use would be only worth $7500. You have an offer on the table for $8k. Maybe you hold out and sell it for more waiting for the right buyer, but while you do that the car is continues to add mileage and years and depreciates because of that. Not only that, you run the risk of suffering a major breakdown, which would mean shelling out for repairs or selling the car for (basically) scrap. Also, you dont need this car anymore because you can walk to work...so your having it is an expensive convenience and poor allocation of resources.

 

I understand the downside, you just never appreciate (haha no pun intended) that there is an upside. Q is on the right side of 30 and, unlike a car, a baseball player does not automatically depreciate. Q could get better next year and be more valuable.

 

Without knowing the offers its impossible to tell, but given the fact that the Sox have done well in their previous 2 trades, Im willing to trust that if they arent trading Q its because the right offer hasnt been made.

[Con te Giolito]

I understand the downside, you just never appreciate (haha no pun intended) that there is an upside. Q is on the right side of 30 and, unlike a car, a baseball player does not automatically depreciate. Q could get better next year and be more valuable.

 

Without knowing the offers its impossible to tell, but given the fact that the Sox have done well in their previous 2 trades, Im willing to trust that if they arent trading Q its because the right offer hasnt been made.

Any upside Quintana has is wasted on the Sox. It actually does them a disservice to have him around as he'll hurt draft position. He'll have to get a lot better to up his value also, teams are more reticent to buy-in on outlier seasons now and, as has been said a million times, Quintana will not be the only option.

[Soxbadger]

Any upside Quintana has is wasted on the Sox. It actually does them a disservice to have him around as he'll hurt draft position. He'll have to get a lot better to up his value also, teams are more reticent to buy-in on outlier seasons now and, as has been said a million times, Quintana will not be the only option.

 

Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

 

And if you arent even willing to consider the idea that the offers the Sox have received arent good enough to trade Q now, there is really no point in discussing because neither of us know the offers. The hardest thing for people to understand, who do not negotiate deals regularly, is why patience is so important.

Edited January 21, 2017 by Soxbadger

[caulfield12]

Actually these are baseball things. Q being a harder worker, good teammate, etc., has baseball value. Lets use the following hypothetical:

 

The Sox believe that Sale would not perform very well in a rebuild. They think his "problems" may be exasperated if the team is terrible. They believe that if he has further "problems" on/off the field, his value may decline. Furthermore they are concerned that Sale's "attitude" may rub off on young players and create a bad atmosphere.

 

Conversely, Q has been a model teammate and worker. He never complains. They believe Q will perform just the same during a rebuild. They also believe that Q's "attitude" may rub off on other young players and create a positive atmosphere.

 

In this hypothetical, holding out for the "best" trade for Q whereas settling for slightly less than the "best" trade for Sale, is a defensible baseball decision. With Sale, the Sox worry that he could do something to crater his value or potentially negatively impact their future assets. With Q the Sox do not have that worry, and as a bonus believe he may have a positive value on their future assets.

 

Exacerbated?

 

[Soxbadger]

Exacerbated?

 

Ha yeah :/, going to change it now cause im ashamed.

[Jerksticks]

Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

 

And if you arent even willing to consider the idea that the offers the Sox have received arent good enough to trade Q now, there is really no point in discussing because neither of us know the offers. The hardest thing for people to understand, who do not negotiate deals regularly, is why patience is so important.

Yes. That last sentence is key. Appearing eager or desperate would cost me money in the real world every day. Every damn day. The problem for Hahn is that he's shown he doesn't plan on competing in 2017 by trading Sale & Eaton. So other GMs smell blood in the water right now, January 20th.

 

But that all changes the minute a team feels the pressure to need a TOR starter on a cheap contract. They will have to cave. It's not an IF but a WHEN. Patience Sox fans. This is how all deals in all industries are done. If you have the rare, coveted supply the demand will find you, always.

[Baron]

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow: "I think the roster we have is probably the roster that we’re going to have to start the season.”

https://twitter.com/jakemkaplan

 

Posturing to the max.

Edited January 21, 2017 by Baron

[reiks12]

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow: "I think the roster we have is probably the roster that we’re going to have to start the season.”

https://twitter.com/jakemkaplan

 

Posturing to the max.

 

"Probably"

[reiks12]

I would get so much satisfaction from the Astros rotation completely blowing it next season.

[Con te Giolito]

It definitely could be posturing but I do wonder. Beane probably doesn't want to deal with him and the Sox/Rays are asking for players he wont trade. His loss. That team likely isnt going to a win division with that rotation.

 

I know I'm not going to find many who agree, but I think Luhnow would give up Bregman for Quintana 1-for-1. That way he can move Gurriel to the 3rd and find some way to make 1b work with Marwin Gonzalez and/or AJ Reed. It actually hurts their 2017 chances more to move Musgrove, they are probably going to need him if (when) McCullers needs time off. Or if Keuchels shoulder problems just rob him completely of his abilities.

Edited January 21, 2017 by Con te Giolito

[steveno89]

I would get so much satisfaction from the Astros rotation completely blowing it next season.

 

They are under a ton of pressure to win with all the moves they have made. They could enter the season without adding pitching, but it doesn't set them up to contend.