Abreu trade "unlikely"

[witesoxfan]

I'm pretty sure I saw where Rick Hahn himself said that he didn't think the team would be super competitive in 2019. It doesn't mean they won't be active in free agency come 2018-19, but that he feels 2020 is when everything will really come together.

[35thstreetswarm]

2019 was always a best case scenario, and I think fans are ready to accept that 2018 and 2019 are rebuilding years...with the focus being on 2020 onwards.

 

It would not be impossible to be a significantly improved team by 2019 if our young talent steps up though.

 

 

I agree it would not be impossible, and in fact am finding it harder and harder to understand why it's obvious that 2019 will be a true rebuilding year. Help me out with the timetable here--because I want to believe 2020 is the year to circle on my calendar if for no other reason than to protect my psyche from disappointment. The cornerstones of our rebuild are the top assets acquired in the Sale/Eaton/Q trades plus Robert (and maybe Hansen), right? (I know there are other quality prospects, but that's the top tier.) Well, three of those guys are already up. Two (Kopech and Jimenez) seem likely to be up by next year, no matter what the brass says about Eloy. Hell, even Hansen could find his way up next year. That could leave Robert as the only high-profile prospect who won't be up in 2018, let alone 2019. Why exactly is the 2019 team supposed to struggle, especially if Abreu and Garcia stick around and produce? Is the assumption that team will struggle for multiple big league seasons while the full contingent of youngsters suffer through growing pains? I guess that's possible, though it's not really how I've seen it work with other recent rebuilds. The Cubs, for example, were off and running once Bryant and Russell arrived.

Edited November 29, 2017 by 35thstreetswarm

[steveno89]

I agree it would not be impossible, and in fact am finding it harder and harder to understand why it's obvious that 2019 will be a true rebuilding year. Help me out with the timetable here--because I want to believe 2020 is the year to circle on my calendar if for no other reason than to protect my psyche from disappointment. The cornerstones of our rebuild are the top assets acquired in the Sale/Eaton/Q trades plus Robert (and maybe Hansen), right? (I know there are other quality prospects, but that's the top tier.) Well, three of those guys are already up. Two (Kopech and Jimenez) seem likely to be up by next year, no matter what the brass says about Eloy. Hell, even Hansen could find his way up next year. That could leave only Robert as a high-profile prospect who won't be up in 2018, let alone 2019. Why exactly is the 2019 team supposed to struggle, especially if Abreu and Garcia stick around and produce? Is the assumption that team will struggle with these newcomers for multiple big league seasons why the youngsters go through growing pains? I guess that's possible, though it's not really how I've seen it work with other recent rebuilds. The Cubs, for example, were off and running once Bryant and Russell arrived.

 

It's more likely that 2019 is a rebuilding year than for us to be competitive right now. Our young prospects would have to come up and be terrific.

 

Our bullpen is currently in shambles, and it could take two seasons to fix that.

 

Nothing is certain in our rotation right now, as Rodon cannot stay healthy and Giolito/Lopez still have questions to answer.

 

 

[shipps]

Fangraphs warns Sawks to not trade JBJ for Abreu.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-trade-...for-jose-abreu/

 

Over the last three years, Bradley and Abreu have produced roughly equivalent WAR totals despite Bradley getting 600 fewer plate appearances. Abreu’s clearly a better hitter, but there’s a huge gap in baserunning value, so the offensive difference has only been about worth 10 runs per 600 PAs, and Bradley’s outstanding defense in center field is clearly worth more than Abreu’s mediocre defense at first base. Bradley’s WAR isn’t inflated by some huge UZR numbers either; in fact, the public perception is that Bradley is more valuable defensively than our fielding numbers suggest.

[ron883]

Can't argue with what Hahn is doing here. Jose has value right now. Jose is historically a slow starter. You don't wait until the deadline when his value is low due to the predictable crap ass start to the season. Jose's value is higher now than it will ever be again IMO. Ship him out of here and see what type of return you can get.

[Jose Abreu]

Can't argue with what Hahn is doing here. Jose has value right now. Jose is historically a slow starter. You don't wait until the deadline when his value is low due to the predictable crap ass start to the season. Jose's value is higher now than it will ever be again IMO. Ship him out of here and see what type of return you can get.

At the 2017 trade deadline, Abreu was hitting .295/.351/.521/.871 with 19 home runs.

 

But go on, keep embarrassing yourself.

[Jose Abreu]

Fangraphs warns Sawks to not trade JBJ for Abreu.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-trade-...for-jose-abreu/

 

Over the last three years, Bradley and Abreu have produced roughly equivalent WAR totals despite Bradley getting 600 fewer plate appearances. Abreu’s clearly a better hitter, but there’s a huge gap in baserunning value, so the offensive difference has only been about worth 10 runs per 600 PAs, and Bradley’s outstanding defense in center field is clearly worth more than Abreu’s mediocre defense at first base. Bradley’s WAR isn’t inflated by some huge UZR numbers either; in fact, the public perception is that Bradley is more valuable defensively than our fielding numbers suggest.

Wow, I really disagree with the weighting of those statistics. Sure, Bradley is the superior baserunner, but I don't think it's so extreme to the point where Abreu is only barely the more valuable hitter.

[Balta1701]

It is interesting to see people coming around on the idea that the window really isn't going to be there for 2019, but more like 2020 or even 2021 in this case.

I think 2019 is our "2015 Cubs" year. They spent some money that year on Lester, basically everyone was called up or arriving, and they wound up being a wild card team because Bryant did a lot of damage and Arrieta broke out as a cy young. 2019 we're not all the way there yet, but the core is up and we should be thinking about putting ourselves in a position where the 2020 offseason we fill the last holes.

[steveno89]

Fangraphs warns Sawks to not trade JBJ for Abreu.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-trade-...for-jose-abreu/

 

Over the last three years, Bradley and Abreu have produced roughly equivalent WAR totals despite Bradley getting 600 fewer plate appearances. Abreu’s clearly a better hitter, but there’s a huge gap in baserunning value, so the offensive difference has only been about worth 10 runs per 600 PAs, and Bradley’s outstanding defense in center field is clearly worth more than Abreu’s mediocre defense at first base. Bradley’s WAR isn’t inflated by some huge UZR numbers either; in fact, the public perception is that Bradley is more valuable defensively than our fielding numbers suggest.

 

I get what Cameron is saying, but the argument could be made that the Red Sox deal JBJ for Abreu and sign a player like Austin Jackson to play CF for a reasonable amount. That would greatly lessen the blow of losing JBJ, and provide a huge upgrade for the middle of the order.

 

I think other clubs like the Rockies or even Cardinals might match up better on an Abreu deal though

 

 

[35thstreetswarm]

I think 2019 is our "2015 Cubs" year. They spent some money that year on Lester, basically everyone was called up or arriving, and they wound up being a wild card team because Bryant did a lot of damage and Arrieta broke out as a cy young. 2019 we're not all the way there yet, but the core is up and we should be thinking about putting ourselves in a position where the 2020 offseason we fill the last holes.

 

...or our 2015 Astros year -- another playoff team. Again, please feel free to stop me from elevating my expectations.

[Dam8610]

I get what Cameron is saying, but the argument could be made that the Red Sox deal JBJ for Abreu and sign a player like Austin Jackson to play CF for a reasonable amount. That would greatly lessen the blow of losing JBJ, and provide a huge upgrade for the middle of the order.

 

I think other clubs like the Rockies or even Cardinals might match up better on an Abreu deal though

 

If they trade JBJ (and Groome) for Abreu, the corresponding move they make is likely to go buy JD Martinez and move Benintendi to CF.

[Bob Sacamano]

If they trade JBJ (and Groome) for Abreu, the corresponding move they make is likely to go buy JD Martinez and move Benintendi to CF.

 

Dor a team that didn't want to go over the luxury tax threshold a year ago, they're suddenly going to add about $45 mill next year to two players?

[Real]

It is interesting to see people coming around on the idea that the window really isn't going to be there for 2019, but more like 2020 or even 2021 in this case.

 

Depends on when the Sox start buying big on impact free agents like Machado

[SoxAce]

Love Groome, but not sure if there's enough there after him.

[witesoxfan]

Can't argue with what Hahn is doing here. Jose has value right now. Jose is historically a slow starter. You don't wait until the deadline when his value is low due to the predictable crap ass start to the season. Jose's value is higher now than it will ever be again IMO. Ship him out of here and see what type of return you can get.

 

Everyone has a price. He should be listening to teams on Moncada and Kopech and Eloy too.

[Rowand44]

...or our 2015 Astros year -- another playoff team. Again, please feel free to stop me from elevating my expectations.

You're not wrong...you're not right either. I've said this numerous times here but I think too many people have a hard timeline on when this thing takes off and that's of course if it ever does. The 2019 team is going to be ridiculously talented and it's also going to be ridiculously young. IMO they could be the 2015 Cubs/Astros, they could also be god freakin awful. This whole rebuild is still a giant question mark despite it looking pretty darn good so far. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if they slip into the playoffs and win a World Series in 2019 and I wouldn't be surprised if this great core we think we put together never makes the playoffs. Nobody knows where this thing is going yet.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Rowand44

[Whisox05]

http://mlb.mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20171129&...os&c_id=bos

 

From Boston red Sox MLB site

[steveno89]

Everyone has a price. He should be listening to teams on Moncada and Kopech and Eloy too.

 

Would have to imagine that Jimenez and Kopech's values would be sky high right now after their fantastic finishes to 2017. We caught the Cubs at the right time in the middle of their window when they really needed Quintana.

 

I'm not saying it was not a good deal for the Cubs, but Jimenez has all the looks of a guy who can develop into a franchise player.

[Balta1701]

...or our 2015 Astros year -- another playoff team. Again, please feel free to stop me from elevating my expectations.

Could be our "2016 Astros Year" too - everyone was up but enough things went wrong that they missed the WC. But on paper, the 2019 White Sox should be as talented as any team in baseball.

[steveno89]

http://mlb.mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20171129&...os&c_id=bos

 

From Boston red Sox MLB site

 

Any Boston fan that thinks Travis has trade value at this point is crazy. A 24 year old, weak hitting 1B/DH prospect is not valuable.

 

 

[greg775]

I put in a thoughtful post with Jose's stats the last 4 seasons and still get blasted. Hard to go against the group and not get roasted.

 

I wish you guys would be like most team's fans and rip the front office more. What have they done since 2005 to earn patience from our fan base? I am not of the opinion our young guys have to suck a year or two before we are competitive. Folks, baseball is full of mediocre to bad teams. Why not us sooner rather than later to ... win? Put some heat on the front office to develop a bullpen.

[Rowand44]

I put in a thoughtful post with Jose's stats the last 4 seasons and still get blasted. Hard to go against the group and not get roasted.

 

I wish you guys would be like most team's fans and rip the front office more. What have they done since 2005 to earn patience from our fan base? I am not of the opinion our young guys have to suck a year or two before we are competitive. Folks, baseball is full of mediocre to bad teams. Why not us sooner rather than later to ... win? Put some heat on the front office to develop a bullpen.

Dude...just...I don't know anymore.

[Balta1701]

What have they done since 2005 to earn patience from our fan base? I am not of the opinion our young guys have to suck a year or two before we are competitive.

So why are you so insistent on the strategy of "Compete and win as much as you can" that we used from 2006-2016?

[steveno89]

I put in a thoughtful post with Jose's stats the last 4 seasons and still get blasted. Hard to go against the group and not get roasted.

 

I wish you guys would be like most team's fans and rip the front office more. What have they done since 2005 to earn patience from our fan base? I am not of the opinion our young guys have to suck a year or two before we are competitive. Folks, baseball is full of mediocre to bad teams. Why not us sooner rather than later to ... win? Put some heat on the front office to develop a bullpen.

 

Nobody is saying Joise hasn't been a quality player for us, he absolutely has. With only two more seasons of control remaining, it might be prudent to shop him for younger talent though is what many fans on soxtalk are suggesting.

 

Nobody is running Jose out of town, but sometimes tough decisions must be made to have a successful rebuild. We want this team primed and ready to compete in the future.

 

With regards to your bullpen comment, how the heck can we just go out and create a quality mlb bullpen? We need to develop young players from within and supplement with a few outside acquisitions over time.

 

We will emerge as free agent players after 2018 with plenty of money to spend, especially if Abreu/Avi are off the books

Edited November 29, 2017 by steveno89

[hi8is]

What have they done since 2005 to earn patience from our fan base?

Pretty much every year since then they've done basically what you advocate... and it hasn't worked... at all. So their failure has earned my patience in trying something new... sometimes hung new which has seen success for other teams.