The front office is too apathetic and stupid (don't give me Rick the Dick has a lot of meaningless degrees) to pull off anything meaningful

I really don't know what they're going to do. It's a weird case where it feels necessary, but at the same time, just about all of them would be a 'sell low' situation, where you likely end up losing the trade badly. I would feel more confident in this process if Hahn was let go and a new GM had the reigns over moving core guys. Hahn almost never wins trades of major leaguers for major leaguers.

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

His expected batting average is .224 and his actual batting average is .218. The only sense that there is more to his struggles is that his walk rate also plummeted, his numbers are exactly what you’d expect for a hitter making this weak of contact.

I don't think xBA is a good stat. Aaron Judge is having a historically good season and his xBA is only .309. If you have to have a historic season to have an xBA over .300, then it's obviously underestimating a lot of hitters ability to hit for average. 

For example, Jose Ramirez is beating his xBA by 20 pts. 

I think you're misusing xBA. It's not to be taken literally, but is rather a tool to measure quality of contact 

Edited October 1, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

4 hours ago, kgrittenburg said:

WHERES Colas?

I went off the 40 man roster. I would have had Colas up in late July / early August.

Unfortunately, I don't expect Colas to start the season with the White Sox, perhaps they will keep him down until May/June 2024, because Jerry is worried about his 2029 money more so than winning ballgames.

This group of guys get hurt by a hangnail, it will continue 

36 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think xBA is a good stat. Aaron Judge is having a historically good season and his xBA is only .309. If you have to have a historic season to have an xBA over .300, then it's obviously underestimating a lot of hitters ability to hit for average. 

For example, Jose Ramirez is beating his xBA by 20 pts. 

I think you're misusing xBA. It's not to be taken literally, but is rather a tool to measure quality of contact 

So your argument against xBA involved Aaron Judge, who has an xBA of .309 and an actual BA of .314? Seems pretty spot on to me.

42 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So your argument against xBA involved Aaron Judge, who has an xBA of .309 and an actual BA of .314? Seems pretty spot on to me.

Machado .295/.268

Ramirez .274/.255

Altuve .295/.268

xBA underestimates BA. 

It only matches up for 90th percentile EV hitters. 

 

 

 

Edited October 1, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Machado .295/.268

Ramirez .274/.255

Altuve .295/.268

xBA underestimates BA. 

It only matches up for 90th percentile EV hitters. 

 

 

 

Manny Machado has a career batting average of .281 and a career xBA of .281. Jose Ramirez has a career xBA of .273 and a career BA of .278. You are looking at small samples of guys who are quite consistent over long careers.

Altuve of course is a different type of hitter, while he certainly has power he also gets hits on the ground and I would say he is a guy who gets hits using bat control - placing balls where the defense isn’t. Thus, over his whole career he outperforms the expected average.

the idea that those numbers somehow don’t line up across most of the league makes no sense.

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Manny Machado has a career batting average of .281 and a career xBA of .281. Jose Ramirez has a career xBA of .273 and a career BA of .278. You are looking at small samples of guys who are quite consistent over long careers.

Altuve of course is a different type of hitter, while he certainly has power he also gets hits on the ground and I would say he is a guy who gets hits using bat control - placing balls where the defense isn’t. Thus, over his whole career he outperforms the expected average.

the idea that those numbers somehow don’t line up across most of the league makes no sense.

They don't. Go look up random players that you know and the deviations are wild. 

Juan Soto has an xBA 20 pts higher than his BA. 

Jose Abreu has an xBA 9 pts lower than his actual average. 

Bryan Reynolds has an xBA 14 pts lower than his actual average. 

Andrew Vaughn has an xBA 18 pts lower than his average. 

Josh Donaldson has an xBA 9 pts lower than his average

Elvis Andrus has an xBA 13 pts higher than his average. 

Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna have an xBA 8 higher than their average. 

Giancarlo Stanton has an xBA 28 pts higher than his average

Kyle Schwarber has an xBA 21 pts higher than his average. 

Guys that I looked up that matched(greater than or equal to 5 pts) 

Harper, Ohtani, Rutschman,  Torres. 

Judge was 6 pts different. 

 

Large enough sample for you? 

 

xBA is ok for QoC and on individual batted balls, but does not hold over a full season. 

Edited October 1, 20223 yr by Jack Parkman

I don't think core players will or should be traded. 

The core is still good but depth is bad and only a little help underway from the minors (colas should be ready) so really what you have to hope for that you get more than 80-100 games (and a performance bounce back for some too) from the core hitters Robert, anderson, eloy, grandal, moncada. 

The rotation is still good, you just need enough production from the core hitters. 

Chicago White Sox: How can we improve our depth?

The top-of-the-roster talent on the South Side remains excellent. That's true even though the production and availability of a lot of the players we count among those impact talents fell short in 2022. At this point, Chicago has little choice but to bank on rebound seasons from Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal, Lucas Giolito, et al. Some of them need to play better. Some of them need to be more durable. Some need to do both. If that doesn't happen collectively, then the depth question will hardly matter. Even if the bounce-backs happen, the White Sox will need to figure out how to create better depth in support of that top tier of talent, especially as the minor league system does not seem poised to solve this problem internally.

espn.com

On 9/29/2022 at 12:23 PM, fathom said:

Yes, Vaughn will be traded IMO.

Hard to think of a player more screwed over than Vaughn. What this org had him do is criminal

I don't understand this idea where the Sox have core players on expensive contracts who are not good, but are simultaneously desirable as trade targets for other teams. Vaughn is a realistic trade option, but probably has less trade value than everyone thinks.

 

Moncada, contrary to popular belief, has never been this bad before, so you could maybe convince a team that this was just an aberration, and that he'll at least get back to his 2021 self. But with his money owed, you'd just be dumping him for no return, at the pretty likely risk of him being a better 3B option than whatever you'd run out there anyway

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't understand this idea where the Sox have core players on expensive contracts who are not good, but are simultaneously desirable as trade targets for other teams. Vaughn is a realistic trade option, but probably has less trade value than everyone thinks.

 

Moncada, contrary to popular belief, has never been this bad before, so you could maybe convince a team that this was just an aberration, and that he'll at least get back to his 2021 self. But with his money owed, you'd just be dumping him for no return, at the pretty likely risk of him being a better 3B option than whatever you'd run out there anyway

Which is why the Sox don’t have a lot of flexibility or options this offseason.

This is the core. The entire rebuild, like any rebuild, only works if you bet on the right players. Every rebuild has a core it’s built around. In any rebuild, certain pieces will always fail that you pegged for greatness, having a 100% hit rate is nearly impossible. But Moncada-Eloy-Robert-Anderson-Abreu-Giolito-Cease was always going to be the “core” that determined if this works or not. They went all-in on their younger players with extensions and right now it looks like they made more bad bets than good ones. They’ve still got a seat at the table, but the chip stack is getting low. 
 

The point is, if they want to “compete” the next two years it’s going to happen because the guys listed above produce at the level they expected them to to when they signed their long-term deals. You’re pot committed to these guys. And because of some really bad money in a lot of different areas, it would take WAY more money than Jerry is willing to spend to truly fix this thing for 2023 and beyond. Knowing this, they have to a very strategic off-season and hit on 2-3 important moves, and mostly rely on Moncada-Anderson-Eloy-Robert-Giolito playing at their career bests. 
 

I’m not holding my breath 

I agree with you.  Before we start dismantling the "core", let's see what a good manager and coaching staff can do.  

One guy I would think about trading is Hendriks. He's been great. Love him as a person and player but................the Sox would have won the divison without him in 2021 and would have been bad, like they were, without him in 2022. He's clearly in pain pitching now. The pitch clock next year may really bother him, as he will have less recovery time. And he should be worth something. 

This "core" is way too volatile to win. You need consistent players to win and this team has way too many inconsistent players in performance and health.  Everything needs to go right and we've seen time and time again with this group that's simply not going to happen. Then factor in they're likely to lose the only consistent player they have because he doesn't "fit" a poorly constructed roster.  They have to move a couple of the "core" guys no matter what it takes because they're not winning s%*# with this group. 

On 9/30/2022 at 9:28 PM, fathom said:

You can’t say get quicker and better defensively and mention Vaughn. He plays like he’s 38.

Yes you can, you can get quicker on the rest of the infield and outfield. First base is not a speed position. Jose has been one of the best and he is not fast. Go find me in both leagues a first baseman who is fast. 

Again I am not opposed to trading Vaughn but if Abreu is moving on, which from his recent remarks looks like he may be exploring free agency, then your option to replace Vaughn is Sheets and that is probably  a step backwards. 

On 10/4/2022 at 8:47 AM, Harold's Leg Lift said:

This "core" is way too volatile to win. You need consistent players to win and this team has way too many inconsistent players in performance and health.  Everything needs to go right and we've seen time and time again with this group that's simply not going to happen. Then factor in they're likely to lose the only consistent player they have because he doesn't "fit" a poorly constructed roster.  They have to move a couple of the "core" guys no matter what it takes because they're not winning s%*# with this group. 

I agree it sucks that our best players seemingly are ALL injury prone (Anderson, Robert, Eloy, Moncada).  Do other successful teams have that many "core" players that are good for a few DL stints a year?  I'd wager, no.

One main Sox priority will be to acquire a good LH OF. That is my expectation. Plus DFA Grandal and Harrison.

29 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I agree it sucks that our best players seemingly are ALL injury prone (Anderson, Robert, Eloy, Moncada).  Do other successful teams have that many "core" players that are good for a few DL stints a year?  I'd wager, no.

Just pick a team. Some of them are a little healthier than the White Sox (Cleveland is in this category) but this super healthy roster people are expecting does not exist.

Here's Atlanta. Atlanta regulars who hit the IL:
Max Fried (Concussion)
Huascar Ynoa (Made 17 starts for them in 2021, Tommy John Surgery)
Ozzie Albies (All star and silver slugger in 2021, missed 60% of the season, unlikely in first playoff round)
Spencer Strider (Made 20 starts for them this year, ERA of 2.67, currently out with an oblique injury, would be their #2 or #3 starter right now)
Adam Duvall - missed half the season with a wrist injury
Kenley Jansen - missed 3 weeks
Acuna - Missed 2 weeks with a knee issue, never fully recovered from injury last year.
Luke Jackson - one of those relievers from the 2021 team - Tommy John Surgery
Eddie Rosario - missed 3 months with an eye injury
Orlando Arcia - Utility guy - missed a month with a hamstring injury
Darren O'Day - signed to a minor league contract, came up and had an ERA of 4 out of the bullpen, missed whole second half with a calf injury.

They have a couple guys who stayed fully healthy and they're important guys. Morton came back healthy. Kyle Wright is healthy. Fried was only out a short time. Swanson and Riley stayed healthy. But that's the case for the White Sox too - Cease was healthy, Abreu was healthy. Cueto threw more innings than he has since 2016. Their key setup men - Lopez and Graveman - healthy the whole year. 

The Braves lost more minor league guys than the White Sox, so they also lost a bunch of depth. They had more time used on the IL than the White Sox. They probably had 1 more key guy stay healthy than the White Sox - Swanson vs Anderson might be a comparison there, but that's it. What they did have was sufficient depth and sufficient talent to overcome those injuries when they happened. They even overcame a bad season from Ian Anderson, who was demoted to AAA. This is a comparable injury report to the White Sox. 

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Just pick a team. Some of them are a little healthier than the White Sox (Cleveland is in this category) but this super healthy roster people are expecting does not exist.

Here's Atlanta. Atlanta regulars who hit the IL:
Max Fried (Concussion)
Huascar Ynoa (Made 17 starts for them in 2021, Tommy John Surgery)
Ozzie Albies (All star and silver slugger in 2021, missed 60% of the season, unlikely in first playoff round)
Spencer Strider (Made 20 starts for them this year, ERA of 2.67, currently out with an oblique injury, would be their #2 or #3 starter right now)
Adam Duvall - missed half the season with a wrist injury
Kenley Jansen - missed 3 weeks
Acuna - Missed 2 weeks with a knee issue, never fully recovered from injury last year.
Luke Jackson - one of those relievers from the 2021 team - Tommy John Surgery
Eddie Rosario - missed 3 months with an eye injury
Orlando Arcia - Utility guy - missed a month with a hamstring injury
Darren O'Day - signed to a minor league contract, came up and had an ERA of 4 out of the bullpen, missed whole second half with a calf injury.

They have a couple guys who stayed fully healthy and they're important guys. Morton came back healthy. Kyle Wright is healthy. Fried was only out a short time. Swanson and Riley stayed healthy. But that's the case for the White Sox too - Cease was healthy, Abreu was healthy. Cueto threw more innings than he has since 2016. Their key setup men - Lopez and Graveman - healthy the whole year. 

The Braves lost more minor league guys than the White Sox, so they also lost a bunch of depth. They had more time used on the IL than the White Sox. They probably had 1 more key guy stay healthy than the White Sox - Swanson vs Anderson might be a comparison there, but that's it. What they did have was sufficient depth and sufficient talent to overcome those injuries when they happened. They even overcame a bad season from Ian Anderson, who was demoted to AAA. This is a comparable injury report to the White Sox. 

I guess I am not talking about short stints.  Moncada 104 games, Anderson 79, robert 98, Eloy 84 for their games played.  Albies missed a ton of the year and Acuna missed a lot.  Strider wasn't expected to be a part of 2022, and his injury  happened at the end of the year. Fried had 30 starts. The rest of the players you mentioned either had short few week stints or and just meh players to start with.  I don't think there's a comparison between these two teams injuries personally

11 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I guess I am not talking about short stints.  Moncada 104 games, Anderson 79, robert 98, Eloy 84 for their games played.  Albies missed a ton of the year and Acuna missed a lot.  Strider wasn't expected to be a part of 2022, and his injury  happened at the end of the year. Fried had 30 starts. The rest of the players you mentioned either had short few week stints or and just meh players to start with.  I don't think there's a comparison between these two teams injuries personally

Duvall - starting LF, out for half the year.  Rosario, $9 million a year OF, missed half the year and was a -1 WAR OF when he got back. You just basically made the Acuna/Robert or Acuna/Moncada comparison yourself. Like I said, you have "1 fewer injured key guy", more injuries to their depth. Strider wasn't supposed to be part of their 2022 rotation, Cueto wasn't supposed to be part of the White Sox's 2022 rotation. Fried had 30 starts? Giolito had 30 starts. Oh, and yeah they had guys like Ozuna and Anderson who were just plain bad, sounds familiar there too. 

The White Sox's top 5 starters made 132 starts this season. The Braves' top 5 starters made 132 starts this season.

On 9/29/2022 at 12:20 PM, greg775 said:

So many guys had bad seasons it'll be tough to deal them. Please get rid of Grandal and Moncada and Pollock and start from there. Maybe try to build up a team strength in one area. That area should be pitching. Cease is a legitimate star to top a rotation. Build a strong starting rotation, make sure you have two reliable relievers on the team to go with a closer.

I'd say improve all facets of the team but that'll be impossible to do in one offseason. Hitting, defense and pitching are all laughable. But Sox allegedly have a few good pitchers for a pitching coach to work with: Cease, Giolito, Kopech, Liam and I guess Lopez. Rehire Coop to work with those five pitchers and find next year's Cueto and some other guys. Put all the FO efforts on pitching to try to get back to respectability. Too many holes to work on everything.

Building a lights out rotation and bullpen would give the fans SOMETHING to get enthused about again. Going into ST with the same guys pretty much assures a rotten April unless the new manager is a miracle worker.

p.s. I can understand people wanting to let Abreu go. It just seems like a failed argument when he was one of the only reasons to go to a game this year. Kind of a "fan" thing to want to get rid of the team's most reliable player, though I understand it's nothing personal. Just seems weird to clamor to get rid of the one guy who wanted to win more than others and actually hit .300 in the year of the decrepit batting averages.

if they dont improve this team defensively building around a rotation is silly

10 hours ago, pcq said:

One main Sox priority will be to acquire a good LH OF. That is my expectation. Plus DFA Grandal and Harrison.

Harrison is a free agent. Do you mean Garcia instead?