2023-24 NFL Season Thread

[MexSoxFan#1]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

While true, Moore is usually his first read, and he often only throws when open, and moore is good at catching. But it's missing the "why isn't justin throwing it" throws. His lower rating to others are indeed bad receivers, but also him throwing later in the progressions on more difficult reads.

I would also add that if we're being honest, the Bears have never had a good OC with Fields, I mean they've been terrible, and the play calling under Nagy and Getsy was under par, to say the least. I'm just saying let's get him a competent OC that can scheme to JF's strengths instead of forcing him to be someone he's not. He has the skillset and given the weapons next season he still can't develope into a top 10 QB, then let's use the draft capital next year to find our QB.

[WhiteSox2023]

14 hours ago, pcq said:

I see Fields emerging as Josh Allen Jr. so go for broke around your QB. Josh leads the world in scoring and turnovers. Gives the game away in the first half and takes it back in the second. Small market team seems to always have 5-6 games of national interest because their brand of football is exciting. Grow some balls and go for it Bears. 

Fields’ ability to read his receivers and react doesn’t come close to Josh Allen’s.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Fields’ ability to read his receivers and react doesn’t come close to Josh Allen’s.

Perhaps the most important part of this - it doesn't come close to where Josh Allen was after year 3. 

[Kyyle23]

30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Perhaps the most important part of this - it doesn't come close to where Josh Allen was after year 3. 

No, they are pretty similar to Allen’s second year.  

[Balta1701]

20 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

No, they are pretty similar to Allen’s second year.  

yeah he struggled through his first year, was mostly a runner his 2nd year, but then took a big jump in y3. That was what I was kinda hoping for from Fields this year and why his first few games going backwards was so disappointing.

[Kyyle23]

43 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

yeah he struggled through his first year, was mostly a runner his 2nd year, but then took a big jump in y3. That was what I was kinda hoping for from Fields this year and why his first few games going backwards was so disappointing.

Well if they stick with him, maybe we can see that jump and we can chalk up the first year to a redshirt season under Nagy.  Staying healthy would be paramount for that jump though

[bmags]

Klint Kubiak now interviewing.

Almost want him just because DBB used to call him a nepo hire and if bears hire him he’ll start singing his praises.

[Chisoxfn]

18 minutes ago, bmags said:

Klint Kubiak now interviewing.

Almost want him just because DBB used to call him a nepo hire and if bears hire him he’ll start singing his praises.

I at least like the 2 names I've heard so far.  

[bmags]

2 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I at least like the 2 names I've heard so far.  

I’ll be honest, making that list made me feel better. The amount of retirements/moves have shaken up a lot of worthy jobs. Some will be head coaches, some won’t. Bears oppo definitely stands out as a stepping stone.

[chw42]

On 1/9/2024 at 4:41 PM, Harry Chappas said:

Thanks.  It's a useless stat. 

I found out that PFF actually does measure TTT for scrambles and pocket throws. Including sacks. Somebody on Reddit was nice enough to chart all his advanced stats. Fields was still the worst in terms of TTT on throws that were not scrambles. As I suspected Fields was real good at buying time on scrambles as he took 6 seconds to throw on those on average, which really skewed his overall TTT even more. I'd be interested to see what the splits look like for Williams.

[chw42]

10 hours ago, MexSoxFan#1 said:

I would also add that if we're being honest, the Bears have never had a good OC with Fields, I mean they've been terrible, and the play calling under Nagy and Getsy was under par, to say the least. I'm just saying let's get him a competent OC that can scheme to JF's strengths instead of forcing him to be someone he's not. He has the skillset and given the weapons next season he still can't develope into a top 10 QB, then let's use the draft capital next year to find our QB.

You should take a look at the chart I posted right above this.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, chw42 said:

I found out that PFF actually does measure TTT for scrambles and pocket throws. Including sacks. Somebody on Reddit was nice enough to chart all his advanced stats. Fields was still the worst in terms of TTT on throws that were not scrambles. As I suspected Fields was real good at buying time on scrambles as he took 6 seconds to throw on those on average, which really skewed his overall TTT even more. I'd be interested to see what the splits look like for Williams.

What is the Top Ten this year?

Stroud there?  Tua?  Mahomes?  Jackson?  Allen?  Purdy?

[chw42]

7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

What is the Top Ten this year?

Stroud there?  Tua?  Mahomes?  Jackson?  Allen?  Purdy?

In overall PFF rating or with regards to TTT? I know Tua is probably first in TTT. I don't have PFF premium so I don't really know the rest. 

Edited January 12 by chw42

[Chisoxfn]

11 hours ago, chw42 said:

I found out that PFF actually does measure TTT for scrambles and pocket throws. Including sacks. Somebody on Reddit was nice enough to chart all his advanced stats. Fields was still the worst in terms of TTT on throws that were not scrambles. As I suspected Fields was real good at buying time on scrambles as he took 6 seconds to throw on those on average, which really skewed his overall TTT even more. I'd be interested to see what the splits look like for Williams.

Did I read those stats accordingly. 

Starting on Right Side: 

Basically - both our QB and Oline are pretty-bad.  So Non-QB pressure we rate poorly, but he is also really poor and creates his own "pressure".  Basically 7th worse in the league (is where Fields is) where as the oline is 9th worse.  yet the % that is OL responsibility is very favorable (how does that add up with being really bad at Non QB pressures).  The bright side is our LG (Jenkins) and RT (Wright) are good...the LT and RG are mediocre and center is bad (passes my eye test).  The % other responsibility is pretty massive - does that mean our RB's are terrible blockers or is that like not being set-up appropriately?  

Looking at the Left: 

Fields is good at maximizing time on the scramble - the next question is how effective is he actually making plays on the scramble (relative to expectation).  Clearly in side the pocket he is bad and this also highlights he does not throw into tight coverage.  On one hand - that should be good - fewer picks, downfall is, to win in this league you got to throw guys open and have conviction making tight window throws. Fields clearly doesn't have it.  And from an expected completion percentage - he flat out executes poorly.  Ranking 45th of QB's which is clearly AWFUL.  

[Chisoxfn]

Jayden Daniels is growing on me if they opted down 1-2 spots and punted on Williams.  He has a TON of experience and clearly has improved as a passer each season. He has size and is clearly an athlete.  Development wise he is on the older side (23) - but you can see clear progression from his time at ASU to LSU and as a passer his accuracy, etc improved.  

I think of it the opposite of Fields - he really showed minimal improvements in college - got to the NFL - and he has basically been the same guy in the NFL as well.  Daniels is different - presuming the physical tools are there - you see a much more upward trajectory in college, including playing in the SEC at a high level (not sure what to think of Kelly's scheme and how that translates to the NFL though). 

Drake Maye - does he end up being like Herbert. Physically dude has all the tools - at college it's been a mixed bag, but when you surround him with more NFL caliber talent - do you see him make like an immediate next step as a pro.  It really is a strong crop of prospects.  

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Jayden Daniels is growing on me if they opted down 1-2 spots and punted on Williams.  He has a TON of experience and clearly has improved as a passer each season. He has size and is clearly an athlete.  Development wise he is on the older side (23) - but you can see clear progression from his time at ASU to LSU and as a passer his accuracy, etc improved.  

I think of it the opposite of Fields - he really showed minimal improvements in college - got to the NFL - and he has basically been the same guy in the NFL as well.  Daniels is different - presuming the physical tools are there - you see a much more upward trajectory in college, including playing in the SEC at a high level (not sure what to think of Kelly's scheme and how that translates to the NFL though). 

Drake Maye - does he end up being like Herbert. Physically dude has all the tools - at college it's been a mixed bag, but when you surround him with more NFL caliber talent - do you see him make like an immediate next step as a pro.  It really is a strong crop of prospects.  

If they drop down 1-2 spots, there is literally only 1 player they should consider and he's a WR.

If they have a shot at Daniels with the 9th pick, even jumping that up a few slots with the haul gotten for pick #1, I could buy that, but boy, if they move down to the Patriots or Commanders pick, take MHJ and don't overthink it. You are getting the clear best prospect in the draft.

If you're insistent on a QB, then take a QB at number 1. If you drop down to #3, take MHJ. If you deal with the Raiders or something like that, then talk about Daniels if he's dropping, or otherwise take the best fits.

[Chisoxfn]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

If they drop down 1-2 spots, there is literally only 1 player they should consider and he's a WR.

If they have a shot at Daniels with the 9th pick, even jumping that up a few slots with the haul gotten for pick #1, I could buy that, but boy, if they move down to the Patriots or Commanders pick, take MHJ and don't overthink it. You are getting the clear best prospect in the draft.

If you're insistent on a QB, then take a QB at number 1. If you drop down to #3, take MHJ. If you deal with the Raiders or something like that, then talk about Daniels if he's dropping, or otherwise take the best fits.

I am presuming QB goes 1-2-3, so if you have a list and you grade 3 similarly, the furthest you can drop is 3 spots.  You also have Falcons at 8, who I presume are taking a QB if one of those 3 was there (so Bears would have to move up).  I guess the question is - if you move back 1-2 spots, do you have enough draft capital to than move back up and get a wideout, whether Harrison or others (without mortgaging the farm).

So moving back assures you get Top 2 QB & Top 2 wideout.  I have to imagine Chargers & Cardinals, currently sitting at 4/5 are taking a wideout.  Giants sitting at 6 are interesting - I could see them going oline (although they also have a clear need at wideout - so could see Harrison, Washington Receiver & Naybors (LSU) all being off the board by 6.  

Reality is - for Bears to get one of the top wideouts at 9 (and I think there are 3 legit Top 10 wideouts in this draft) - they need 3 QB's to go off the board before them (a 4th going would be even better - but I don't see 4 going in Top 10 - unless Atlanta falls in love with JJ McCarthy or Penix).  They need the 2 LT's to be drafted, 2 WR's I see for sure being gone, and you need at least one defensive player selected (Verse or Dallas Turner or a surprise).  

I think worse case scenario for the Bears is - you take your QB at the top, all 3 WR's are of the board, & both LT's are off the board - leaving you looking at taking the best edge player at 9.  I say that in the sense that this doesn't seem like a year where you have a no brainer edge player, not that the Bears don't have a need at this spot.  But if this works out - this could be where the Bears actually slide back down a few slides - move into the mid teens. 

But my early Mock Draft is - Bears aren't cute: 

Draft Caleb @ 1 

Draft Odunze @ 9 

 

[chw42]

29 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Did I read those stats accordingly. 

Starting on Right Side: 

Basically - both our QB and Oline are pretty-bad.  So Non-QB pressure we rate poorly, but he is also really poor and creates his own "pressure".  Basically 7th worse in the league (is where Fields is) where as the oline is 9th worse.  yet the % that is OL responsibility is very favorable (how does that add up with being really bad at Non QB pressures).  The bright side is our LG (Jenkins) and RT (Wright) are good...the LT and RG are mediocre and center is bad (passes my eye test).  The % other responsibility is pretty massive - does that mean our RB's are terrible blockers or is that like not being set-up appropriately?  

Looking at the Left: 

Fields is good at maximizing time on the scramble - the next question is how effective is he actually making plays on the scramble (relative to expectation).  Clearly in side the pocket he is bad and this also highlights he does not throw into tight coverage.  On one hand - that should be good - fewer picks, downfall is, to win in this league you got to throw guys open and have conviction making tight window throws. Fields clearly doesn't have it.  And from an expected completion percentage - he flat out executes poorly.  Ranking 45th of QB's which is clearly AWFUL.  

You did. The line being 31st in pressures being squarely their fault was very surprising. No surprise that Patrick is the worst lineman, but I was expecting him to be much lower than 15th.

These numbers may not match up to the eyetest 100%, but I think they take away a lot of the bias that's thrown out there by fans and the media.

There's another chart I did not post that charted TTT under 2.5 seconds and over 2.5 seconds. The Bears had the 3rd least amount of drop backs where the TTT was under 2.5 seconds. And were first in drop back % with a TTT of over 2.5 seconds. On those drop backs, his TTT was the third worst in the league at 4.09 seconds. The line gave him time to throw on those.

Here's the whole thread in case anyone is interested. There's a lot of good stuff in here: https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/s/k05If73bUk

Edited January 12 by chw42

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I am presuming QB goes 1-2-3, so if you have a list and you grade 3 similarly, the furthest you can drop is 3 spots.  You also have Falcons at 8, who I presume are taking a QB if one of those 3 was there (so Bears would have to move up).  I guess the question is - if you move back 1-2 spots, do you have enough draft capital to than move back up and get a wideout, whether Harrison or others (without mortgaging the farm).

So moving back assures you get Top 2 QB & Top 2 wideout.  I have to imagine Chargers & Cardinals, currently sitting at 4/5 are taking a wideout.  Giants sitting at 6 are interesting - I could see them going oline (although they also have a clear need at wideout - so could see Harrison, Washington Receiver & Naybors (LSU) all being off the board by 6.  

Reality is - for Bears to get one of the top wideouts at 9 (and I think there are 3 legit Top 10 wideouts in this draft) - they need 3 QB's to go off the board before them (a 4th going would be even better - but I don't see 4 going in Top 10 - unless Atlanta falls in love with JJ McCarthy or Penix).  They need the 2 LT's to be drafted, 2 WR's I see for sure being gone, and you need at least one defensive player selected (Verse or Dallas Turner or a surprise).  

I think worse case scenario for the Bears is - you take your QB at the top, all 3 WR's are of the board, & both LT's are off the board - leaving you looking at taking the best edge player at 9.  I say that in the sense that this doesn't seem like a year where you have a no brainer edge player, not that the Bears don't have a need at this spot.  But if this works out - this could be where the Bears actually slide back down a few slides - move into the mid teens. 

But my early Mock Draft is - Bears aren't cute: 

Draft Caleb @ 1 

Draft Odunze @ 9 

 

My point is - MHJ is, as a prospect, seemingly head and shoulders above the other wideouts. Based on everything we've read, he's set up to be like Calvin Johnson compared to the rest of the league. If you're dropping back 1 or 2 spots, don't overthink it, just take Harrison.

If you drop back to pick, let's say 13, the Bears have pick 9 and pick 13. Consider a QB if one is there, but otherwise take the best talent available and recognize that you're going to have a boatload more picks available in the next couple years after the gigantic move you just made. In that case, yeah you take a WR and an Edge rusher or whatever the best setup is, and you add two first round talents, but the reason why you've passed on a generational QB and generational WR is that you got such an overwhelming package for the pick you gave up.

[whitesoxfan99]

6 minutes ago, chw42 said:

You did. The line being 31st in pressures being squarely their fault was very surprising. No surprise that Patrick is the worst lineman, but I was expecting him to be much lower than 15th.

These numbers may not match up to the eyetest 100%, but I think they take away a lot of the bias that's thrown out there by fans and the media.

There's another chart I did not post that charted TTT under 2.5 seconds and over 2.5 seconds. The Bears had the 3rd least amount of drop backs where the TTT was under 2.5 seconds. And were first in drop back % with a TTT of over 2.5 seconds. On those drop backs, his TTT was the third worst in the league at 4.09 seconds. The line gave him time to throw on those.

Here's the whole thread in case anyone is interested. There's a lot of good stuff in here: https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/s/k05If73bUk

That matches my eye test that a huge amount of the pressures and sacks are on Fields.  There is a reason the sack rate drops dramatically when he has been hurt and a backup has played.  And the phenomenon was the same when he was at OSU.  Before his years as the starter OSU was among the best in the country at preventing sacks and it was the same after when Stroud was there.  Yet when Fields was the QB they allowed a ton of sacks.  OSU didn't suddenly have much worse offensive lines during that period either (their starting OL from 2020 included a 2nd round pick, 2 3rd round picks, and then their other tackle was also drafted into the NFL and 2019 you had 3 of those same starters plus a 3rd round pick).

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

That matches my eye test that a huge amount of the pressures and sacks are on Fields.  There is a reason the sack rate drops dramatically when he has been hurt and a backup has played.  And the phenomenon was the same when he was at OSU.  Before his years as the starter OSU was among the best in the country at preventing sacks and it was the same after when Stroud was there.  Yet when Fields was the QB they allowed a ton of sacks.  OSU didn't suddenly have much worse offensive lines during that period either (their starting OL from 2020 included a 2nd round pick, 2 3rd round picks, and then their other tackle was also drafted into the NFL and 2019 you had 3 of those same starters plus a 3rd round pick).

No doubt Fields ups the sack total, but what if the new OC worked on calling plays that fit his strengths, not trying to fit him in his system? It seemed Getsy , the first drive of the game, usually rolled him out, called some QB runs, etc, and they seemed the move the ball pretty well. I get you can't do it 100% of the time, but you do it more than Getsy wanted, maybe it slows the pass rush . I think Fields thinks his natural gifts will allow him to get out of sacks, and while it has, it hasn't been enough to offset the ones he shouldn't have taken. I think with DJ Moore and Harrison, the wait for someone to be open is also going to be a lot shorter. Trade the pick. It should be worth even more than last year. Draft Harrison, get an edge rusher at 9. Pick a QB if you want to after that. Get a OL in round 2.  If it doesn't work out, you should have mulitple firsts in 2025. Trade up for a QB then.

[chw42]

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

No doubt Fields ups the sack total, but what if the new OC worked on calling plays that fit his strengths, not trying to fit him in his system? It seemed Getsy , the first drive of the game, usually rolled him out, called some QB runs, etc, and they seemed the move the ball pretty well. I get you can't do it 100% of the time, but you do it more than Getsy wanted, maybe it slows the pass rush . I think Fields thinks his natural gifts will allow him to get out of sacks, and while it has, it hasn't been enough to offset the ones he shouldn't have taken. I think with DJ Moore and Harrison, the wait for someone to be open is also going to be a lot shorter. Trade the pick. It should be worth even more than last year. Draft Harrison, get an edge rusher at 9. Pick a QB if you want to after that. Get a OL in round 2.  If it doesn't work out, you should have mulitple firsts in 2025. Trade up for a QB then.

The problem with this plan is the opportunity cost of skipping on this draft's huge haul of QBs. Next year's class is much worse at QB.

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, chw42 said:

The problem with this plan is the opportunity cost of skipping on this draft's huge haul of QBs. Next year's class is much worse at QB.

Who really knows? 9 teams passed on Mahomes . 

[Flash Tizzle]

2 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Jayden Daniels is growing on me if they opted down 1-2 spots and punted on Williams.  He has a TON of experience and clearly has improved as a passer each season. He has size and is clearly an athlete.  Development wise he is on the older side (23) - but you can see clear progression from his time at ASU to LSU and as a passer his accuracy, etc improved.  

I think of it the opposite of Fields - he really showed minimal improvements in college - got to the NFL - and he has basically been the same guy in the NFL as well.  Daniels is different - presuming the physical tools are there - you see a much more upward trajectory in college, including playing in the SEC at a high level (not sure what to think of Kelly's scheme and how that translates to the NFL though). 

Drake Maye - does he end up being like Herbert. Physically dude has all the tools - at college it's been a mixed bag, but when you surround him with more NFL caliber talent - do you see him make like an immediate next step as a pro.  It really is a strong crop of prospects.  

There was a youtube video I came across a few days ago where someone analyzed the various QB’s, and Jayden Daniels came out ahead in nearly every advanced metric. Granted, there are countless variables involved; but I hope the Bears are exploring every possibility. If they believe JD is the #1, draft him there. If they trade down even past #4, there’s a good chance, JD, Maye, Williams and MHJ are all off the board. You may very well have a haul of future draft picks, but cmon - you want to be in this position to draft generational talent. We cannot pass it up

Edited January 12 by Flash Tizzle

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

There was a youtube video I came across a few days ago where someone analyzed the various QB’s, and Jayden Daniels came out ahead in nearly every advanced metric. Granted, there are countless variables involved; but I hope the Bears are exploring every possibility. If they believe JD is the #1, draft him there. If they trade down even past #4, there’s a good chance, JD, Maye, Williams and MHJ are all off the board. You may very well have a haul of future draft picks, but cmon - you want to be in this position to draft generational talent. We cannot pass it up

I do agree, if they trade the pick, they can't go lower than 4.