Bullpen management

[Claudellsleptheretoo]

Last night’s game crushed me.  I looked it up and Lopez and Kelly have 11 losses and 11 blown holds / saves added together.  That means (surely some overlap) that there’s been at least 10-15 games that they’ve entered with us leading or tied and they put the other team ahead.  It matches what I’ve seen in games.  I get anxious every time one of them pitches, no matter what our lead is.  Would we not be around .500 without them?  Aren’t the Twinkies around .500 and leading the division?  Does the new manager deserve a pass on this?  I remember he said he wasn’t into stats or cyber metrics but relies on his “gut.”  Isn’t that like saying I’d rather ride a horse on the Dan Ryan than drive a car?  What good is technology and progress if ignored?  Anyone else in on this?  How long do we let the guy do his cowboy routine and deny the 21st century?

[The Mighty Mite]

2 minutes ago, Claudellsleptheretoo said:

Last night’s game crushed me.  I looked it up and Lopez and Kelly have 11 losses and 11 blown holds / saves added together.  That means (surely some overlap) that there’s been at least 10-15 games that they’ve entered with us leading or tied and they put the other team ahead.  It matches what I’ve seen in games.  I get anxious every time one of them pitches, no matter what our lead is.  Would we not be around .500 without them?  Aren’t the Twinkies around .500 and leading the division?  Does the new manager deserve a pass on this?  I remember he said he wasn’t into stats or cyber metrics but relies on his “gut.”  Isn’t that like saying I’d rather ride a horse on the Dan Ryan than drive a car?  What good is technology and progress if ignored?  Anyone else in on this?  How long do we let the guy do his cowboy routine and deny the 21st century?

No argument from me, Grifol was a terrible hire but that’s the White Sox and Hahn for you. 

[Claudellsleptheretoo]

Want to add that I like Lopez and Kelly personally.  Liked their acquisition and I’m sure they are good guys.  But they bring back memories of Jamie Shields pitching batting practice in real games and the team keep accepting his assertion that “I’m a bulldog.”  All of us Sox fans would have preferred we roll out a weasel or a ferret out to the mound after the first two games he pitched.  I think we gave the Pads a guy named Tatis Jr for him.  Any chance we get him back for Kelly/Lopez/ lifetime supply of Gino’s Deep Dish?

[Lip Man 1]

12 minutes ago, Claudellsleptheretoo said:

Last night’s game crushed me.  I looked it up and Lopez and Kelly have 11 losses and 11 blown holds / saves added together.  That means (surely some overlap) that there’s been at least 10-15 games that they’ve entered with us leading or tied and they put the other team ahead.  It matches what I’ve seen in games.  I get anxious every time one of them pitches, no matter what our lead is.  Would we not be around .500 without them?  Aren’t the Twinkies around .500 and leading the division?  Does the new manager deserve a pass on this?  I remember he said he wasn’t into stats or cyber metrics but relies on his “gut.”  Isn’t that like saying I’d rather ride a horse on the Dan Ryan than drive a car?  What good is technology and progress if ignored?  Anyone else in on this?  How long do we let the guy do his cowboy routine and deny the 21st century?

The Sox have actually had a lead going into the 7th inning or later 11 times now...and wound up losing the game:

March 31 (7th) Graveman/Diekman

April 14 (7th) Diekman/Lopez

April 21 (9th) Lopez

April 29 (7th) Lynn

May 4 (8th) Lopez

May 27 (7th) Kelly

May 28 (9th) Kelly

June 10 (9th) Kelly

June 11 (9th) Graveman

July 1 (8th) Kelly

July 4 (8th) Kelly

The most expensive bullpen in Major League baseball... 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

  

[The Mighty Mite]

47 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The Sox have actually had a lead going into the 7th inning or later 11 times now...and wound up losing the game:

March 31 (7th) Graveman/Diekman

April 14 (7th) Diekman/Lopez

April 21 (9th) Lopez

April 29 (7th) Lynn

May 4 (8th) Lopez

May 27 (7th) Kelly

May 28 (9th) Kelly

June 10 (9th) Kelly

June 11 (9th) Graveman

July 1 (8th) Kelly

July 4 (8th) Kelly

The most expensive bullpen in Major League baseball... 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

  

And wouldn’t you know it, Diekman has been lights out since becoming a Ray, opposing hitters are batting .050 off him in his time with TB. Could it be the Rays have a pitching coach that knows what he’s doing.

Edited July 6, 2023 by The Mighty Mite

[FloydBannister1983]

Part of this is on the starters.

It seems only Giolito and Lynn are capable of going six or seven innings.

I just checked baseball reference and it’s been a month since Kopech pitched more than five innings.

Hey Michael - why don’t you flip off the bullpen every time you take the ball.

Hes gone seven innings in three of 15 starts.

Cease has not gone past six innings (6.1 once, there’s that) and has only done that in seven of 16 starts.

Eventually the bullpen will get worn down.

(Admittedly I don’t know if every team has starters pitching like this or if the Sox are an outlier.)

 

[tray]

There is no way that Sox relievers should be walking lead-off hitter when the Sox are up one or two runs in late innings, especially when  a home run hitter like Vladdy is in the batter's circle. There is also no way they should throw a fast ball to a home run hitter like Vlad who represents the tying or winning run after walking Belt.  Bummer has done this a number of time this season as well.

Recall that moment from the 1986 Game 6 of the 1986 National League Championship Series in Houston, bottom of the 16th inning, Mets up by a run and trying to clinch the pennant.

Jesse Orosco is pitching to Kevin Bass with the tying and winning runs on base, and he is gassed. He has nothing on his heater, but is still throwing it.

Keith Hernandez walks to the mound.

“If you throw another fastball,” Hernandez said (he confirmed the exact words on Tuesday), “We’re gonna fight.”

I think he actually said he would kick his ass.   Grifol lacks the courage to do anything like that.

https://sny.tv/articles/iconic-1986-mets-moment-modern-analytics

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by tray

[Lip Man 1]

4 hours ago, The Mighty Mite said:

And wouldn’t you know it, Diekman has been lights out since becoming a Ray, opposing hitters are batting .050 off him in his time with TB. Could it be the Rays have a pitching coach that knows what he’s doing.

It's not just the pitching coach that doesn't know what they are doing with the Sox staff. 

And if you go back to the thread where he was released you'll see where I stated it would be just like the White Sox that Tampa turns him around he becomes effective. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Lip Man 1

[T R U]

8 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

It's not just the pitching coach that doesn't know what they are doing with the Sox staff. 

And if you go back to the thread where he was released you'll see where I stated it would be just like the White Sox that Tampa turns him around he becomes effective. 

You continually see players come here and crater. Its not a one off, it happens all the time. Diekman threw 30 innings for the White Sox across two seasons and had an ERA over 7!

Its an organizational issue, its happened too many times to chalk it up to dumb luck.

Edited July 6, 2023 by T R U
Typo

[Snopek]

9 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

It's not just the pitching coach that doesn't know what they are doing with the Sox staff. 

And if you go back to the thread where he was released you'll see where I stated it would be just like the White Sox that Tampa turns him around he becomes effective. 

As much as I hate to give the Sox a pass here, I think the Diekman things says a lot more about Tampa Bay than it does the Sox. I feel that most teams wouldn’t have been able to do much with Diekman. The Rays pitching lab is that good.

[T R U]

20 minutes ago, Snopek said:

As much as I hate to give the Sox a pass here, I think the Diekman things says a lot more about Tampa Bay than it does the Sox. I feel that most teams wouldn’t have been able to do much with Diekman. The Rays pitching lab is that good.

Except most teams WERE able to do something with him, the exception of course was with the White Sox.

2019: 4.75 ERA (Royals)

2019: 4.43 ERA (A's)

2020: 0.42 ERA (A's)

2021: 3.86 ERA (A's)

2022: 4.23 ERA (Red Sox)

2022: 6.52 ERA (WHITE SOX)

2023: 7.94 ERA (WHITE SOX)

2023: 2.08 ERA (Rays)

Edited July 6, 2023 by T R U

[Snopek]

42 minutes ago, T R U said:

Except most teams WERE able to do something with him, the exception of course was with the White Sox.

2019: 4.75 ERA (Royals)

2019: 4.43 ERA (A's)

2020: 0.42 ERA (A's)

2021: 3.86 ERA (A's)

2022: 4.23 ERA (Red Sox)

2022: 6.52 ERA (WHITE SOX)

2023: 7.94 ERA (WHITE SOX)

2023: 2.08 ERA (Rays)

I see a guy who’s gotten worse each year since 2020 and then the Rays fixed him.

Again, this is not a defense of the Sox. They clearly have developmental/coaching/organizational issues. I just think the Rays have a longer track record of turning pitchers around than the Sox do ruining them. 

[T R U]

14 minutes ago, Snopek said:

I see a guy who’s gotten worse each year since 2020 and then the Rays fixed him.

Again, this is not a defense of the Sox. They clearly have developmental/coaching/organizational issues. I just think the Rays have a longer track record of turning pitchers around than the Sox do ruining them. 

Yes, on the Rays he has been an elite bullpen arm. On everyone else, he was a useful bullpen arm. On the White Sox, he was completely useless and apparently forgot how to pitch.

[ChiSox59]

The bullpen management has been terrible. 

[South Side Hit Men]

Last I checked Liam announced publicly January 9th that he had cancer. Apparently the money has been spent to attempt to find an adequate fill in, even for 7th/8th to promote Graveman to 9th. 

Sox 2022-2023 Major League Roster Relief Pitcher acquisitions:

Before the announcement: Santos and Middleton.

After the announcement: Colome, Shaw, Toussaint.

[Colome's Hat]

16 hours ago, Claudellsleptheretoo said:

Last night’s game crushed me.  I looked it up and Lopez and Kelly have 11 losses and 11 blown holds / saves added together.  That means (surely some overlap) that there’s been at least 10-15 games that they’ve entered with us leading or tied and they put the other team ahead.  It matches what I’ve seen in games.  I get anxious every time one of them pitches, no matter what our lead is.  Would we not be around .500 without them?  Aren’t the Twinkies around .500 and leading the division?  Does the new manager deserve a pass on this?  I remember he said he wasn’t into stats or cyber metrics but relies on his “gut.”  Isn’t that like saying I’d rather ride a horse on the Dan Ryan than drive a car?  What good is technology and progress if ignored?  Anyone else in on this?  How long do we let the guy do his cowboy routine and deny the 21st century?

Wasn't the whole reason they brought Grifol in because he was a "new age" manager who was heavily into metrics?

[Balta1701]

18 minutes ago, T R U said:

Yes, on the Rays he has been an elite bullpen arm. On everyone else, he was a useful bullpen arm. On the White Sox, he was completely useless and apparently forgot how to pitch.

He's been an "elite" bullpen arm with the rays in part because of a .172 BABIP and a 84% LOB rate. These numbers are unlikely to continue. 

However, his K-rate with the Rays shot back up to where it was in 2022. His walk rate dropped back to where it was in 2021, and his fastball has picked up 0.8 mph since he left the White Sox, so some fraction of this is sustainable as him being a good and useful reliever.

[Colome's Hat]

To be honest, I'm very hesitant to judge Grifol on this just because it's clear he has been handed a bag of s%*#.  This is a team that was essentially built to win this division and nothing else.  And the fact that they might be able to get away with that because this division is such a s%*#-show, tells you just about everything you need to know about this team.  As an Arsenal supporter, I remember the whole Arteta out thing.  Granted, he had more immediate success when he won the FA Cup but his first full season was brutal.  Once Arsenal committed to the project he wanted, we saw results.  Granted, the results that he got hinged on the Arsenal board's willingness to spend big money to get him the players he wanted.  We need a clearing out of this front office.  But I'm hesitant to throw Grifol out with the bathwater just yet.

[T R U]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He's been an "elite" bullpen arm with the rays in part because of a .172 BABIP and a 84% LOB rate. These numbers are unlikely to continue. 

However, his K-rate with the Rays shot back up to where it was in 2022. His walk rate dropped back to where it was in 2021, and his fastball has picked up 0.8 mph since he left the White Sox, so some fraction of this is sustainable as him being a good and useful reliever.

Even if they are unlikely to continue, the point remains that for several years now Jake Diekman has been a serviceable bullpen arm everywhere he has been, except for Chicago where he was unplayable.

[T R U]

1 minute ago, Colome's Hat said:

To be honest, I'm very hesitant to judge Grifol on this just because it's clear he has been handed a bag of s%*#.  This is a team that was essentially built to win this division and nothing else.  And the fact that they might be able to get away with that because this division is such a s%*#-show, tells you just about everything you need to know about this team.  As an Arsenal supporter, I remember the whole Arteta out thing.  Granted, he had more immediate success when he won the FA Cup but his first full season was brutal.  Once Arsenal committed to the project he wanted, we saw results.  Granted, the results that he got hinged on the Arsenal board's willingness to spend big money to get him the players he wanted.  We need a clearing out of this front office.  But I'm hesitant to throw Grifol out with the bathwater just yet.

The problem is, if we clean out the front office and make a hire that good organizations should be making you wont get that type of guy by telling him hes stuck with the lame duck manager already in place.

I would imagine that a new front office will get to hire their own manager. I would not think Grifol survives that purge.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, T R U said:

The problem is, if we clean out the front office and make a hire that good organizations should be making you wont get that type of guy by telling him hes stuck with the lame duck manager already in place.

I would imagine that a new front office will get to hire their own manager. I would not think Grifol survives that purge.

A new GM will get to choose their own manager eventually. If I took the job right now, there's a good chance I'll keep Grifol around at least for next year because I'll want to get started on fixing other things before I worry about a search for a new manager. 

[Snopek]

25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A new GM will get to choose their own manager eventually. If I took the job right now, there's a good chance I'll keep Grifol around at least for next year because I'll want to get started on fixing other things before I worry about a search for a new manager. 

Please just take the job

[The Kids Can Play]

16 hours ago, Claudellsleptheretoo said:

Last night’s game crushed me.  I looked it up and Lopez and Kelly have 11 losses and 11 blown holds / saves added together.  That means (surely some overlap) that there’s been at least 10-15 games that they’ve entered with us leading or tied and they put the other team ahead.  It matches what I’ve seen in games.  I get anxious every time one of them pitches, no matter what our lead is.  Would we not be around .500 without them?  Aren’t the Twinkies around .500 and leading the division?  Does the new manager deserve a pass on this?  I remember he said he wasn’t into stats or cyber metrics but relies on his “gut.”  Isn’t that like saying I’d rather ride a horse on the Dan Ryan than drive a car?  What good is technology and progress if ignored?  Anyone else in on this?  How long do we let the guy do his cowboy routine and deny the 21st century?

You're absolutely correct Grifol sucks at bullpen management and it's because his bullpen is bad and inconsistent. He either picks the wrong reliever or leaves them in too long, when they are clearly struggling and can't find the plate. 

Again we can thank our genius Rick Hahn for this, as he put this bullpen together. Under Hahn for years now, his FO has struggled horribly in developing their own pitching prospects in the minors and when they do go out for free agents or trades for a reliever, Hahn always screwed it up.

Per FanGraphs, the Sox are #1 with the most blown saves at 18.

The Sox are tied for 25th for fewest holds with 36. 

Don't forget Hahn spent the most money in baseball for this underachieving and inconsistent bullpen. Hence this time around, the old adage of "you get what you pay for" clearly didn't work out for Hahn.

I

[Timmy U]

One reason the Sox have blown so many leads is that they score so few runs. The margin of error is zilch. Basically, any time they give up any runs you give up the lead. It’s why they have to blow the whole thing up, not just fix one aspect.

[JoeC]

I wonder how many of the Sox's wins (and losses) had, at one point or another, a save opportunity....