Cease To Padres per Passan

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

@Sports Guy / @Frobby - Can you guys explain Povich to me?  OH basically considers him an untouchable but his results in the upper minors have been pretty bad with incredibly high BB rates.  Your guy Tony only has him as a 45 FV prospect as well and outside of your top 10 (BA also has him outside the top 10).  I guess I don’t get why this dude would hold up a Cease trade outside of you guys needing general pitching depth.  What am I missing here?

When the Os traded Lopez to the Twins, Povich was the true target. They liked him out of college.

He had some impressive peripheral stats this year. IIRC, he had one of the best FIPs in the minors this year. He has really good stuff, high K rates and misses bats.

The problem is, he hasn’t put together good back to back starts in his career unless I’m forgetting him doing it towards the end of last year.

His command and control are issues.

That said, the Os don’t have a lot of upper minors pitching prospects, he is left handed (our FO has an unhealthy obsessions with lefties because of the new wall in Camden Yards) and has a high ceiling.

I don’t want to trade him but personally I think it’s foolish for him to hold anything up and the fans on our site that act like he’s some can’t miss, untouchable guys are just being foolish imo.

[Rey21]

Watched some of Cowsers highlights from last season, looked like Joey Gallo without as much power. Get Kjerstad his bat is ready now 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Rey21

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

Watched some of Cowsers highlights from last season, looked like Joey Gallo without as much power. Get Kjerstad his bat is ready now 

The whole “we are down on Cowser because of his ML time” narrative is overplayed.

First of all, he hit into some bad luck and while his numbers would have still been bad, they should have  been better and perhaps it would have allowed him more opportunity. The Os stupidly gave his at bats to Aaron Hicks, who did have some stretches of being very good but was never going to be a guy that you trust.

Secondly, in his pro career, as he has moved up to a higher level, he normally starts off struggling only to get going after that.

I can see preferring Kjerstad because you have more confidence in his hit tool. I go back and forth on them. Cowser is the better all around talent. Kjerstad has real defensive concerns and where he ends up. 
 

What’s funny is that Beavers could end up being the best prospect out of the 3. He isn’t right now but if we fast forward 10 years from now and find out that he was the best out of the 3, I wouldn’t be surprised. 

[Rey21]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The whole “we are down on Cowser because of his ML time” narrative is overplayed.

First of all, he hit into some bad luck and while his numbers would have still been bad, they should have  been better and perhaps it would have allowed him more opportunity. The Os stupidly gave his at bats to Aaron Hicks, who did have some stretches of being very good but was never going to be a guy that you trust.

Secondly, in his pro career, as he has moved up to a higher level, he normally starts off struggling only to get going after that.

I can see preferring Kjerstad because you have more confidence in his hit tool. I go back and forth on them. Cowser is the better all around talent. Kjerstad has real defensive concerns and where he ends up. 
 

What’s funny is that Beavers could end up being the best prospect out of the 3. He isn’t right now but if we fast forward 10 years from now and find out that he was the best out of the 3, I wouldn’t be surprised. 

Yeah I still want Kjerstad, hope Cowser figures it out and Beavers becomes what you guys think he could be but Kjerstad’s left handed power is too promising to pass on if it’s a pick between Cowser and Kjerstad for the Sox, they need to strike gold with trading Cease, can’t bank on Cowser simply figuring it out. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Rey21

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When the Os traded Lopez to the Twins, Povich was the true target. They liked him out of college.

He had some impressive peripheral stats this year. IIRC, he had one of the best FIPs in the minors this year. He has really good stuff, high K rates and misses bats.

The problem is, he hasn’t put together good back to back starts in his career unless I’m forgetting him doing it towards the end of last year.

His command and control are issues.

That said, the Os don’t have a lot of upper minors pitching prospects, he is left handed (our FO has an unhealthy obsessions with lefties because of the new wall in Camden Yards) and has a high ceiling.

I don’t want to trade him but personally I think it’s foolish for him to hold anything up and the fans on our site that act like he’s some can’t miss, untouchable guys are just being foolish imo.

You must be thinking of someone else because he had a 3.80 FIP in AA and a 4.94 FIP in AAA.  He put up great K rates but offset by pretty terrible BB rates.

I guess I’m struggling here as Cease was ridiculed by a portion of your board because of his high walk rate while this same set of posters (not you or Frobby obviously) has more or less said they’d pass on Cease altogether if they had to include a pitching prospect with the exact same same issues.

[Quin]

This thread 

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You must be thinking of someone else because he had a 3.80 FIP in AA and a 4.94 FIP in AAA.  He put up great K rates but offset by pretty terrible BB rates.

I guess I’m struggling here as Cease was ridiculed by a portion of your board because of his high walk rate while this same set of posters (not you or Frobby obviously) has more or less said they’d pass on Cease altogether if they had to include a pitching prospect with the exact same same issues.

Our board is exactly littered with grounded posters that use consistency between our players and other teams.

Here are some tweets on Povich. Some of the numbers I was thinking of didn’t last all year.

https://x.com/nathansruiz/status/1684583788767064064?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

https://x.com/themilbnerd/status/1656685217539661830?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

https://x.com/prospect_tilt/status/1656746731772473349?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

https://x.com/thevergepod/status/1684391372948656129?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

[SoCalChiSox]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The whole “we are down on Cowser because of his ML time” narrative is overplayed.

First of all, he hit into some bad luck and while his numbers would have still been bad, they should have  been better and perhaps it would have allowed him more opportunity. The Os stupidly gave his at bats to Aaron Hicks, who did have some stretches of being very good but was never going to be a guy that you trust.

Secondly, in his pro career, as he has moved up to a higher level, he normally starts off struggling only to get going after that.

I can see preferring Kjerstad because you have more confidence in his hit tool. I go back and forth on them. Cowser is the better all around talent. Kjerstad has real defensive concerns and where he ends up. 
 

What’s funny is that Beavers could end up being the best prospect out of the 3. He isn’t right now but if we fast forward 10 years from now and find out that he was the best out of the 3, I wouldn’t be surprised. 

According to Jimmy, we asked for Beavers in the package at the deadline.

I know @CaliSoxFanViaSWside is also super high on him. Since you said there's no way Elias will trade 2 of Hjerstad/Cowser/Beavers, if Chicago is still very high on Beavers, I wonder if Getz will opt for a quantity package and basically take Beavers instead of those other guys so long as BAL really sweetens the pot elsewhere. 

You said Hall isn't going anywhere, but IMO if BAL really wants to hold onto their Top 5 it should come at a painful cost.

I would take Ortiz as the headliner and put him at SS, Montgomery to 3B and plan on Ramos at 2B. Since Getz likes Norby you can try that bat in the OF for now and ofcourse take Beavers, Povich and Bradfield too (as insurance for a Robert trade in the future) plus maybe another arm somewhere in their system.

It would need to be at least a 6 man package. 

 

[poppysox]

40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But how does Nick Madrigal represent quality?  He’s like a 15% to 20% below major league average bat.

I remember Carlos Lee for Scotty Pods got this same reaction.  Lots of different types can make a really good team.  Unless your team can buy the best player available at every position...compromises need to be made.  Madrigal will end up being a very useful player one of these days IMO.

[Chicago White Sox]

I used the trade simulator and came up with a Cease deal that the tool says is fair for both us and the Orioles.  I’ll fax this over to Elias & Getz and hopefully we can put an end to this stalemate.  Always great to find a deal that equally benefits both sides!

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

According to Jimmy, we asked for Beavers in the package at the deadline.

I know @CaliSoxFanViaSWside is also super high on him. Since you said there's no way Elias will trade 2 of Hjerstad/Cowser/Beavers, if Chicago is still very high on Beavers, I wonder if Getz will opt for a quantity package and basically take Beavers instead of those other guys so long as BAL really sweetens the pot elsewhere. 

You said Hall isn't going anywhere, but IMO if BAL really wants to hold onto their Top 5 it should come at a painful cost.

I would take Ortiz as the headliner and put him at SS, Montgomery to 3B and plan on Ramos at 2B. Since Getz likes Norby you can try that bat in the OF for now and ofcourse take Beavers, Povich and Bradfield too (as insurance for a Robert trade in the future) plus maybe another arm somewhere in their system.

It would need to be at least a 6 man package. 

 

One thing I think being overlooked here is that the Orioles have other guys that could play in the OF.  Personally, I’d try Mayo in RF before settling with him as a 1B.  He can essentially replace Santander after the 2024 season.  I’d also move Horvath to the OF and have him potentially be the fallback option there come 2026.  That leaves Cowser for LF and Bradfield for CF once Hayes & Mullins are gone.  Fabian profiles as a solid 4th OF potentially.  They also have a few other younger OF prospects behind those guys in the event someone were to bust, but honestly I’d feel petty good about that group resulting in a strong OF unit.

That theoretical OF arrangement allows them to use two potential savages in Kjerstad & Beavers in a Cease trade, which addresses two major areas of need for us.  Obviously we would need another good piece, but I like that potential construct better focusing on their good not great pitching or infield prospects.

[SoCalChiSox]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

One thing I think being overlooked here is that the Orioles have other guys that could play in the OF.  Personally, I’d try Mayo in RF before settling with him as a 1B.  He can essentially replace Santander after the 2024 season.  I’d also move Horvath to the OF and have him potentially be the fallback option there come 2026.  That leaves Cowser for LF and Bradfield for CF once Hayes & Mullins are gone.  Fabian profiles as a solid 4th OF potentially.  They also have a few other younger OF prospects behind those guys in the event someone were to bust, but honestly I’d feel petty good about that group resulting in a strong OF unit.

That theoretical OF arrangement allows them to use two potential savages in Kjerstad & Beavers in a Cease trade, which addresses two major areas of need for us.  Obviously we would need another good piece, but I like that potential construct better focusing on their good not great pitching or infield prospects.

I would be very happy with getting Kjerstad and Beavers in the same package.

That way even if Kjerstad ends up at 1B, we'd still have a real OF in the package and ofcourse we could take advantage of Kjerstad's left handed savagery at GRF.

Unfortunately, Getz apparently considers it a deadly sin  to get any likely bat only player regardless of the other dynamics at play in the transaction and Elias is a stingy, stubborn POS. 

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

According to Jimmy, we asked for Beavers in the package at the deadline.

I know @CaliSoxFanViaSWside is also super high on him. Since you said there's no way Elias will trade 2 of Hjerstad/Cowser/Beavers, if Chicago is still very high on Beavers, I wonder if Getz will opt for a quantity package and basically take Beavers instead of those other guys so long as BAL really sweetens the pot elsewhere. 

You said Hall isn't going anywhere, but IMO if BAL really wants to hold onto their Top 5 it should come at a painful cost.

I would take Ortiz as the headliner and put him at SS, Montgomery to 3B and plan on Ramos at 2B. Since Getz likes Norby you can try that bat in the OF for now and ofcourse take Beavers, Povich and Bradfield too (as insurance for a Robert trade in the future) plus maybe another arm somewhere in their system.

It would need to be at least a 6 man package. 

 

6 players?  This isn’t even grounded in reality unless 2 or 3 of the players are org filler that have little to no upside.

If you don’t get a top 5 guy, a package of Ortiz or Norby, Beavers, Povich and another prospect likely in the 20-30 range seems right.

That would be 4 players in your top 10 and likely a few in your top 5, maybe even 3 of them in your top 5.

The feeling I get on here is that Cease is worth a lot more than he likely is and that the Os system is created equal with everyone else.

The reality is that if you take out the Os top 5 prospects, that it’s still an upper half of the majors system.  
 

They have several guys that either have been in top 100s (like Povich was in the 60s for Kiley iirc) or will be by the end of the year, provided that they stay healthy.

Just because they aren’t top 100 guys today doesn’t mean much at all. That is an extremely overrated thing by all fan bases imo.

I can remember when the Os traded Machado, I wanted 2 guys that were ranked in the top 100 for him.  Instead they got Yusniel Diaz, who was top 40 at the time.

The 2 guys I wanted were Lux and May…2 guys who were far away and had done nothing in the upper minors.

Sometimes those are the better guys to get.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

One thing I think being overlooked here is that the Orioles have other guys that could play in the OF.  Personally, I’d try Mayo in RF before settling with him as a 1B.  He can essentially replace Santander after the 2024 season.  I’d also move Horvath to the OF and have him potentially be the fallback option there come 2026.  That leaves Cowser for LF and Bradfield for CF once Hayes & Mullins are gone.  Fabian profiles as a solid 4th OF potentially.  They also have a few other younger OF prospects behind those guys in the event someone were to bust, but honestly I’d feel petty good about that group resulting in a strong OF unit.

That theoretical OF arrangement allows them to use two potential savages in Kjerstad & Beavers in a Cease trade, which addresses two major areas of need for us.  Obviously we would need another good piece, but I like that potential construct better focusing on their good not great pitching or infield prospects.

Fabian is a guy that I could see going to you guys.  I love his potential. He’s already an elite defensive CFer with a big arm and he has a lot of power.

But he has a lot of swing and miss in his swing, so that’s an issue obviously.

The Os love this guy but Bradfield makes him more likely to be moved than this time last year.

 

[pmb0928]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Pass on Norby.  Just not a profile that makes sense for us.

Definitely not a guy that fits us.  Has improved every year as he went higher up in the minors. Has power and hits for average. Don't want that messing up our reputation

[Sports Guy]

58 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I used the trade simulator and came up with a Cease deal that the tool says is fair for both us and the Orioles.  I’ll fax this over to Elias & Getz and hopefully we can put an end to this stalemate.  Always great to find a deal that equally benefits both sides!

That might be the worst sports site on the internet.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Sports Guy

[WhiteSox2023]

5 minutes ago, pmb0928 said:

Definitely not a guy that fits us.  Has improved every year as he went higher up in the minors. Has power and hits for average. Don't want that messing up our reputation

Questionable defense so I doubt Getz will want him.

[Chicago White Sox]

31 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I would be very happy with getting Kjerstad and Beavers in the same package.

That way even if Kjerstad ends up at 1B, we'd still have a real OF in the package and ofcourse we could take advantage of Kjerstad's left handed savagery at GRF.

Unfortunately, Getz apparently considers it a deadly sin  to get any likely bat only player regardless of the other dynamics at play in the transaction and Elias is a stingy, stubborn POS. 

I hear Kjerstad is great in the clubhouse and grew up a Royals fan, so maybe he checks enough boxes despite being a bat-oriented prospect?

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That might be the worst sports site on the internet.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

6 players?  This isn’t even grounded in reality unless 2 or 3 of the players are org filler that have little to no upside.

If you don’t get a top 5 guy, a package of Ortiz or Norby, Beavers, Povich and another prospect likely in the 20-30 range seems right.

That would be 4 players in your top 10 and likely a few in your top 5, maybe even 3 of them in your top 5.

The feeling I get on here is that Cease is worth a lot more than he likely is and that the Os system is created equal with everyone else.

The reality is that if you take out the Os top 5 prospects, that it’s still an upper half of the majors system.  
 

They have several guys that either have been in top 100s (like Povich was in the 60s for Kiley iirc) or will be by the end of the year, provided that they stay healthy.

Just because they aren’t top 100 guys today doesn’t mean much at all. That is an extremely overrated thing by all fan bases imo.

I can remember when the Os traded Machado, I wanted 2 guys that were ranked in the top 100 for him.  Instead they got Yusniel Diaz, who was top 40 at the time.

The 2 guys I wanted were Lux and May…2 guys who were far away and had done nothing in the upper minors.

Sometimes those are the better guys to get.

Norby ain’t that dude.  Povich is a good not great pitching prospect and we have a lot of those.  Ortiz will be 26 years old next year.  Those are players that can be beat.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Norby ain’t that dude.  Povich is a good not great pitching prospect and we have a lot of those.  Ortiz will be 26 years old next year.  Those are players that can be beat.

I’m only reacting to the post about trading 6 guys and a quantity type deal. I’m not saying any of those guys can/should/would lead a deal..but that is what the post was about and Cease just isnt worth 6 good prospects.  It’s just an absurd ask.

[SoCalChiSox]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Fabian is a guy that I could see going to you guys.  I love his potential. He’s already an elite defensive CFer with a big arm and he has a lot of power.

 

 

These traits, while nice, do not overcome his significant disability. 

[Timmy U]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Fabian is a guy that I could see going to you guys.  I love his potential. He’s already an elite defensive CFer with a big arm and he has a lot of power.

But he has a lot of swing and miss in his swing, so that’s an issue obviously.

The Os love this guy but Bradfield makes him more likely to be moved than this time last year.

 

Hard pass on Fabian. First year at a low level was a mirage. His swing and miss is a fatal flaw. I doubt he ever gets 100 AB’s in the majors.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

These traits, while nice, do not overcome his significant disability. 

No question but if there are 3 or 4 players in the deal, Fabian being a 3rd or 4th guy is a great get in that deal for you guys. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Timmy U said:

Hard pass on Fabian. First year at a low level was a mirage. His swing and miss is a fatal flaw. I doubt he ever gets 100 AB’s in the majors.

Completely disagree. In fact, I think he’s more likely to have a multi year career.

His defense is elite at a premium position. The power is there. He has good speed.

He is a 4th/5th OF type guy almost for sure. He will carve out a role imo.  

He is unlikely to be a starter for sure but carving out some kind of a role as a MLer is very possible.

As an example, Ryan McKenna has almost 500 PA the last 3 years. He isn’t a good offensive player but he has speed abd plays good defense.

MLb is littered with guys like that, even ones with big swing and miss