15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The big thing is Cease doesn't miss appearances.   He's there every five days.  Three straight years of 30 plus starts in his 1st three seasons.  Even his seemingly league average season last year was largely drive by a terrible defense which stuck him with almost an extra run per game over expected.

Agreed, although I worry about ceases long term durability given his frame. 

Cease isn't bad and 30+ starts three years in a row is awesome. I just always wanted to move cease. You can't be a #1 in this game if you can't get out of the sixth inning and he'll warrant #1 money for a lot of other reasons.

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Agreed, although I worry about ceases long term durability given his frame. 

Cease isn't bad and 30+ starts three years in a row is awesome. I just always wanted to move cease. You can't be a #1 in this game if you can't get out of the sixth inning and he'll warrant #1 money for a lot of other reasons.

In this day and age, it isn't as big of a deal as it once was, then again neither is only pitching half seasons.

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

In this day and age, it isn't as big of a deal as it once was, then again neither is only pitching half seasons.

Yeah, this is true for some. The reason I wanted Wheeler so badly is because he was a true ace unicorn; deep into games, big innings and efficient. Those are the only starters I would pay big money. 

Wheeler a great example of why injuries are not predictive too; hurt a lot in his 20s and I think he'll be the best work horse in the game for a 6-8 year period (he's in year 4 now). Limiting innings due to injuries in your youth isn't actually a horrible thing.

Crochet really efficient, big and commands the zone. He's got a lot of the attributes I look for in guys which is why he has me so hyped. 

Edited May 24, 20241 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

Me thinks Sox fans overvalued Cease. They got a fair deal. 

Edited June 17, 20241 yr by baseball_gal_aly

31 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Me thinks Sox fans overvalued Cease. They got a fair deal. 

Uh oh. Looks like he’s fading again. Did the same thing last year but didn’t start fading hard until July. I said it in another thread a couple weeks ago but if I’m a GM of a playoff team this year I’m taking Crochet over Cease for the rest of the season innings limit and all. And beyond this year, it’s not even close imo.

Crochet looked good so far, but do you really value him more than Cease?  Good 1/2 of good baseball can be a mirage.  

14 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

Crochet looked good so far, but do you really value him more than Cease?  Good 1/2 of good baseball can be a mirage.  

Crochet doesn't walk anyone(shocker) 

 

He has a better K/BB than Sale in 2014. 

Edited June 17, 20241 yr by baseball_gal_aly

1 hour ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Me thinks Sox fans overvalued Cease. They got a fair deal. 

Will you marry me?

Looking more and more like 2022 was an outlier for Cease.  

14 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

Looking more and more like 2022 was an outlier for Cease.  

He's a solid 3rd starter elite 4th. Not an ace, control problems even when he's got his best stuff that we didn't see from Sale and so far Garrett. That's really what separates the elite from the good, having that great stuff but also having pinpoint fastball command almost every start. Rodon when healthy had it more often than not as well.

28 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

He's a solid 3rd starter elite 4th. Not an ace, control problems even when he's got his best stuff that we didn't see from Sale and so far Garrett. That's really what separates the elite from the good, having that great stuff but also having pinpoint fastball command almost every start. Rodon when healthy had it more often than not as well.

Pitching Ninja had a Crochet target practice video, he's really good at hitting his spots. 

1 minute ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Pitching Ninja had a Crochet target practice video, he's really good at hitting his spots. 

He's amazing. He's painting 98 on the black quite often. It's the best I've seen since Sale.

 

2 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

 

Man I really hope we keep him. Need SOMETHING to look forward to

3 minutes ago, DoUEvenShift said:

Man I really hope we keep him. Need SOMETHING to look forward to

This type of talent is out of Jerry's price range. If he was on another team and about to be free, Jerry would laugh at the idea of signing him just like Ohtani. 

If Crochet stays healthy over the next 2.5 seasons, he's going to get one of the largest pitching FA deals as a 27 year old. You know how rare a 27 year old ace hitting FA is? Almost never happens. 

Edited June 18, 20241 yr by baseball_gal_aly

1 hour ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

This type of talent is out of Jerry's price range. If he was on another team and about to be free, Jerry would laugh at the idea of signing him just like Ohtani. 

If Crochet stays healthy over the next 2.5 seasons, he's going to get one of the largest pitching FA deals as a 27 year old. You know how rare a 27 year old ace hitting FA is? Almost never happens. 

I can’t think of a single example in recent years. Obviously whoever trades for him will extend him so he won’t hit the open market.

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I can’t think of a single example in recent years. Obviously whoever trades for him will extend him so he won’t hit the open market.

If he were to get traded at the deadline this year, I don't think him signing an extension is a slam dunk at all. Obviously could happen, but 2.5 years of control is still very valuable and if I was representing Crochet, while you're taking a very serious risk, I wouldn't want to limit negotiations to just one team, I'd want to see what the open market says he's worth

I still don't trust Crochet's arm to hold up. I would definitely sell high on him while you can. He is quite a talent but he is entering very serious territory with innings on his arm. Already a Tommy John on his record too. His unorthodox delivery could be an issue too down the road.

4 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Crochet doesn't walk anyone(shocker) 

 

He has a better K/BB than Sale in 2014. 

He is way more efficient than Cease. Cease would be at 100 pitches through five regularly whereas Crochet is throwing 6-7 innings on more restrictive pitch counts. I’d say he is actually proficiently better than Cease, although Cease’s reliability obviously has a lot of value

Edited June 18, 20241 yr by 4OCS

10 hours ago, Tony said:

If he were to get traded at the deadline this year, I don't think him signing an extension is a slam dunk at all. Obviously could happen, but 2.5 years of control is still very valuable and if I was representing Crochet, while you're taking a very serious risk, I wouldn't want to limit negotiations to just one team, I'd want to see what the open market says he's worth

It might not be this year that he sees an extension but a trade and extension like Glasnow did last offseason is what I envision for Crochet.

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

It might not be this year that he sees an extension but a trade and extension like Glasnow did last offseason is what I envision for Crochet.

Glasgow got 5 years at 27.5 million per.  Obviously Garrett has his 2 arb years first, but that is going to be what Crochet is using as a basis for any negotiations going forward. 

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Glasgow got 5 years at 27.5 million per.  Obviously Garrett has his 2 arb years first, but that is going to be what Crochet is using as a basis for any negotiations going forward. 

Garrett won’t get much via arbitration the next two seasons because he’s starting from such a low base so if you offered to buy out his next two seasons of arbitration and then extend him another three seasons beyond that, you’re probably looking at 5 years / $75M range (Benintendi contract). If a team is unloading two borderline T100 mlb prospects for him, I think they will be very motivated to extend him along these lines.

17 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Garrett won’t get much via arbitration the next two seasons because he’s starting from such a low base so if you offered to buy out his next two seasons of arbitration and then extend him another three seasons beyond that, you’re probably looking at 5 years / $75M range (Benintendi contract). If a team is unloading two borderline T100 mlb prospects for him, I think they will be very motivated to extend him along these lines.

Good luck winning an arbitration case against him if he goes on to pitch 150 innings and is one of the top 3 pitchers in the league.

Also, why on earth would he sign a 5 year extension worth $15 million per year when he could be looking at $30 million per year in 2 seasons?

22 minutes ago, T R U said:

Good luck winning an arbitration case against him if he goes on to pitch 150 innings and is one of the top 3 pitchers in the league.

Also, why on earth would he sign a 5 year extension worth $15 million per year when he could be looking at $30 million per year in 2 seasons?

Much more plausible that they buy out his next two seasons at a higher value than would be expected in arbitration and in exchange they get a team option for his first free agent year at like $20 mil.  I could see him going for that.

20 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

Much more plausible that they buy out his next two seasons at a higher value than would be expected in arbitration and in exchange they get a team option for his first free agent year at like $20 mil.  I could see him going for that.

Again, if you're Crochet and you are establishing yourself as one of the top pitchers in baseball, you aren't going to agree to a $20 million team option to buy out 1 year of FA when he could hit the market and instead get $30+ on a long commitment.

The sad reality is, unless the White Sox get out of their old ways there is no extension they will offer that would be fair to what Crochet is becoming worth.