Eloy Trade Rumor Thread

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I like the suggestion of Jake McCarthy for Eloy Jimenez. Feel like the D-Backs can still use another RHH (though, they could just sign Soler or JD Martinez if they want to).

I could get on board with that. Sox still have a big hole in RF. I don’t think they like/trust Colas in RF. Colas likely slides down into a reserve role by opening day imo.

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Lol. Those guys all suck. Eloy certainly has his warts but that list of pitchers is a dumpster fire. Sox will get similar or better production from the junk they already have.

Free agent pitchers who don’t get at least #50-60 million have some warts they need to address. 
 

I certainly don’t see the point of signing Frankie Montas for $15 million hoping to flip him. If you want to buy prospects, use all your international money.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I like the suggestion of Jake McCarthy for Eloy Jimenez. Feel like the D-Backs can still use another RHH (though, they could just sign Soler or JD Martinez if they want to).

I’d rather just keep Eloy and hope for a bounce back than do that. If McCarthy is all they can get, you might as well just give Colas another chance at that point.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

Free agent pitchers who don’t get at least #50-60 million have some warts they need to address. 
 

I certainly don’t see the point of signing Frankie Montas for $15 million hoping to flip him. If you want to buy prospects, use all your international money.

Frankie won’t even make it to July so it’s pointless. Money down the drain. Lorenzen was very good for the Tigers last season and he returned a 45 FV second basemen at the trade deadline. Mind you, that’s the best case scenario July trade return for any of these guys. It doesn’t move the needle if all you’re banking on is the hopes they stay healthy and productive enough into July to return a middling prospect.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I could get on board with that. Sox still have a big hole in RF. I don’t think they like/trust Colas in RF. Colas likely slides down into a reserve role by opening day imo.

Getz has already said Colas will start the season in AAA. He's in the doghouse for not showing the respect to his coaches by throwing to the wrong bases and not taking more pitches.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Getz has already said Colas will start the season in AAA. He's in the doghouse for not showing the respect to his coaches by throwing to the wrong bases and not taking more pitches.

Oh ok, I guess I missed that lol. So who’s the starting RF as we stand today? Gavin Sheets? I liked the McCarthy suggestion because he’d be a plus defender in RF and fits what Getz is looking for. You could then sign Soler to DH and occasionally sub in a corner OF spot.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

You know darn well they have a payroll limit man, come on.

I said they are not "at" a payroll limit.  I haven't ran the numbers recently, but the Sox currently projected payroll is what, like $115M with Eloy?   Edit: *without adding in buyouts the Sox already paid in 2023 to make 2024 payroll look higher than it is. *

Edited December 19, 2023 by ChiSox59

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I said they are not "at" a payroll limit.  I haven't ran the numbers recently, but the Sox currently projected payroll is what, like $115M with Eloy?   

Yeah a little over there on Spotrac. And also with Cease at around $8.5 who may be traded before that.

[ChiSox59]

14 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I’d rather just keep Eloy and hope for a bounce back than do that. If McCarthy is all they can get, you might as well just give Colas another chance at that point.

They should be doing that anyway.  I don't mind making the dude earn it for a month or two in Charlotte, but he should be playing in Chicago most of 2024. 

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Frankie won’t even make it to July so it’s pointless. Money down the drain. Lorenzen was very good for the Tigers last season and he returned a 45 FV second basemen at the trade deadline. Mind you, that’s the best case scenario July trade return for any of these guys. It doesn’t move the needle if all you’re banking on is the hopes they stay healthy and productive enough into July to return a middling prospect.

And the likeliest scenario for Eloy right now is that they hold him through the year and pay his buyout at the end of the season after he gets like 350 plate appearances. Money down the drain.

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Yeah a little over there on Spotrac. And also with Cease at around $8.5 who may be traded before that.

Right.  Payroll isn't an issue.  Sox don't NEED to trade Eloy to add SP.  That was the point.  

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

And the likeliest scenario for Eloy right now is that they hold him through the year and pay his buyout at the end of the season after he gets like 350 plate appearances. Money down the drain.

And dumping him now for a middling prospect or two, and signing Frankie Montas to 1/$14M changes things how exactly?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Oh ok, I guess I missed that lol. So who’s the starting RF as we stand today? Gavin Sheets? I liked the McCarthy suggestion because he’d be a plus defender in RF and fits what Getz is looking for. You could then sign Soler to DH and occasionally sub in a corner OF spot.

That's what everyone else is asking. I've been begging for 3 or 4 off seasons for the Sox to trade for young LH OF, throwing all kinds of names out there. Some got traded, some were rumored to be on the block and not traded. Some were just names I threw out there. Like most fans I'm not privy to who is available. 

Some are hoping we get a LH OF prospects who can step right in like Cowser or Kjerstad from Baltimore.

In the meantime scour the dumpsters and AAAA guys who can't hit but can run and field.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And the likeliest scenario for Eloy right now is that they hold him through the year and pay his buyout at the end of the season after he gets like 350 plate appearances. Money down the drain.

In 2024, it’s far more likely Eloy replicates his 2022 season than it is Montas gives you a sub 4.5 ERA with 100+ IP. Would you disagree? 

[Tony]

37 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I could get on board with that. Sox still have a big hole in RF. I don’t think they like/trust Colas in RF. Colas likely slides down into a reserve role by opening day imo.

By “still” you mean since 2009, right? 

[South Side Hit Men]

4 hours ago, ptatc said:

Fair point about the splits. 

Where did you read that no one wants him as an OF? 

It’s an assumption based on what we’ve and MLB has seen in terms of ability and health issues over the years. Really hope he mentally accepts his new role and can have a healthy solid season, preferably for the Sox. His contract over the next few years is still reasonable if he could ever play to his skill potential.

In terms of other posts today speculating on our final payroll, we have mixed clues but nobody beyond Jerry and possibly Getz knows which of the three routes they will take since they have been silent this entire offseason.

A. They will acquire an at least adequate starting RF and a few pitchers who may pan out, perhaps a legitimate #2-#3 SP - Add $20M- $30M from here after their initial cuts, retaining significant savings over 2023.

B. They have cut what they planned, may trade Cease and their payroll and add a few low end pieces as an offset. Payroll will not significantly change from here on out.

C. They will cut salary and dump anyone else they possibly can, including Cease, Eloy and if possible Yoan and Benintendi, prioritizing salary relief over player/prospect acquisition.

I believe B. is the likely scerario, but it would be a nice surprise for the Sox to come in at a $130M-$140M payroll and the Sox actually give fans some reason for optimism heading into Spring Training.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, Tony said:

By “still” you mean since 2009, right? 

Since Eaton was traded whenever that was

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Right.  Payroll isn't an issue.  Sox don't NEED to trade Eloy to add SP.  That was the point.  

Are you sure about that ? So you expect the Sox to sign a FA starting pitcher ? In what price range?

Or I'll ask this. What is the final payroll and what indicators lead you to your conclusion ?

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

In 2024, it’s far more likely Eloy replicates his 2022 season than it is Montas gives you a sub 4.5 ERA with 100+ IP. Would you disagree? 

Without knowledge of Montas's injury, I will go with Montas unless the medicals say otherwise.

Over the last 3 years, Eloy has been a 2.4 fWAR player total, Montas has been a 6 fWAR player. Over his entire career Eloy has put up 5.4 fWAR, Montas has put up 9.4. Both of them have clear injury issues, but Montas has been clearly the better player over the entire stretch of Eloy's career, and teams have shown they will specifically overpay for pitching at the deadline (see: Lance Lynn).

[JoeC]

Sox should hold onto Eloy.

The downside of holding on is that you've sunk money (which the Sox have room to spare at this point) into an asset that returns you peanuts.

The upside of holding onto him is that you could get actual legitimate prospects in return.

To me, the downside is basically equivalent to trading him now. The upside of trading him now is what - you save money? That money isn't going to be spent on anything meaningful probably anyways, unless you can buy prospects (international bonus pool notwithstanding).

[ChiSox59]

3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Are you sure about that ? So you expect the Sox to sign a FA starting pitcher ? In what price range?

Or I'll ask this. What is the final payroll and what indicators lead you to your conclusion ?

I don't really expect the Sox to sign a FA SP.  Not because of strict budget limit (like $125M is a hard limit and Getz cannot possibly go over that in any circumstance), but because they're not really trying to win in 24 and doing a fairly hard reset.

Then again, I would NOT (fixing typo) be shocked if they did sign a stop gap SP. I am not really sure what their plan is at this point.  Being limited to the 10th overall pick really negates the benefit of being god awful.  

Edited December 19, 2023 by ChiSox59

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Without knowledge of Montas's injury, I will go with Montas unless the medicals say otherwise.

Over the last 3 years, Eloy has been a 2.4 fWAR player total, Montas has been a 6 fWAR player. Over his entire career Eloy has put up 5.4 fWAR, Montas has put up 9.4. Both of them have clear injury issues, but Montas has been clearly the better player over the entire stretch of Eloy's career, and teams have shown they will specifically overpay for pitching at the deadline (see: Lance Lynn).

“Medicals say otherwise” please explain…. if he gets $14M+ presumably that means he passes a physical. I’ll be tracking this closely. I’ll be shocked if he pitches 100+ innings in 2024 and since you’re referencing fWAR in your comparison I’ll also wager he finishes 2024 with less than 1 fWAR. I think Eloy will beat that in 2024.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

“Medicals say otherwise” please explain….

I have no idea how bad his shoulder is. Do you? 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I have no idea how bad his shoulder is. Do you? 

He was able to return at the end of last year. While hardly conclusive, it's a positive sign. 

[Dick Allen]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Without knowledge of Montas's injury, I will go with Montas unless the medicals say otherwise.

Over the last 3 years, Eloy has been a 2.4 fWAR player total, Montas has been a 6 fWAR player. Over his entire career Eloy has put up 5.4 fWAR, Montas has put up 9.4. Both of them have clear injury issues, but Montas has been clearly the better player over the entire stretch of Eloy's career, and teams have shown they will specifically overpay for pitching at the deadline (see: Lance Lynn).

Why is it when PTAC wants to use historical stats, you say they are irrelevant, yet seem to think someone putting up a WAR juicing and before shoulder surgery is relevant?

id take Eloy 10 out of 10. If he sucks he costs slightly more to say goodbye. If he’s good, he has 2 more years after 2024 with control. The odds of getting a difference maker for Montas isn’t very high. But it’s hypothetical, they should have the funds for both if they choose. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Dick Allen