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Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for Ortiz/Hall/34th Pick


DirtySox
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1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Maybe, but we all know that Getz will have to trade Cease eventually.  Risking holding onto Cease until the deadline is one thing, but no argument can be made now that trading him next offseason would be more advantageous.  We have now almost been through this offseason and the offers weren’t there.  There is no way Cease is still a member of the Sox after this season’s trade deadline.

Remember that Cease still could be a member of the Sox after the trade deadline if he is hurt. You have to understand that risk entails that right now might be the highest value we see for Cease.

He has to pitch much better than he did in 2023 and stay healthy to be worth more than he is now.

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10 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Man, this is brutal. Absolutely undermines a ton of Getz' leverage now and may force him to take a giant risk on Cease by holding onto him until the deadline.

This is a big kick to nuts not just because it makes one of our suitors (still) far less desperate, but with such a mediocre return it also potentially lowers the price on Cease. That's tough. What a fucking blow.

It’s only a blow if a deal was actually close for Cease which seemingly it never was. I’m sure Getz knew what was available, good on him for not budging. I get most of us wanted a RF and 2B to kickstart this “re-tool” and the O’s assuming they were ready to play ball and go hard after Cease made a ton of sense, the Sox aren’t a RF and 2B away from winning a division. Let Cease cook with a better game caller and better defense behind him and let the contenders (O’s included) come calling at the deadline. Good on the O’s for fleecing the Brewers. 

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17 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Sure, we could all be wrong but no one here would’ve been happy with this same return for Cease.  Hall may never be a starter with his poor walk rate and Ortiz may just be a glove first, slappy bat shortstop.

Well to be fair, you would get a little more for Cease because of the extra year of control.

The Os are better off with this deal though. It’s smarter.

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4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Remember that Cease still could be a member of the Sox after the trade deadline if he is hurt. You have to understand that risk entails that right now might be the highest value we see for Cease.

He has to pitch much better than he did in 2023 and stay healthy to be worth more than he is now.

I’ve said a few times I don’t think waiting until the trade deadline to deal Cease is worth the injury risk.  But I also don’t know what the trade offers are that Getz has received.

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Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

I’ve said a few times I don’t think waiting until the trade deadline to deal Cease is worth the injury risk.  But I also don’t know what the trade offers are that Getz has received.

This deal going down also means no other team was willing to beat this price for Burnes. It’s useful for the Brewers but certainly not loaded. That also says something about the high end trade market right now.

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well to be fair, you would get a little more for Cease because of the extra year of control.

The Os are better off with this deal though. It’s smarter.

Agreed.  Logic would say that the Orioles’ offer for Cease was likely higher.  At this point, I wonder if it was one of Hjerstad or Cowser, Ortiz, and Hall.

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Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

Agreed.  Logic would say that the Orioles’ offer for Cease was likely higher.  At this point, I wonder if it was one of Hjerstad or Cowser, Ortiz, and Hall.

Or that the Orioles aren’t willing to give up any of their high value prospects so they took the best pitcher they could get without giving them up.

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3 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I’ve said a few times I don’t think waiting until the trade deadline to deal Cease is worth the injury risk.  But I also don’t know what the trade offers are that Getz has received.

Probably wasn’t much better than what the Brewers got for Burnes. I highly doubt Kjerstad was on the table. And that’s the main piece I would have needed back in return 

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5 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I wonder if they trade for Cease.

I keep parroting this, but they have a ton of interesting guys outside of Dominguez/Jones. Hampton/Arias would be two pieces I'd love to acquire. I think I'd prefer them to Jones even. Work in some combination of Lombard/Warren/Lalane if you need to. A deal with the Yankees could do wonders for the farm system.

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5 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I don’t see how it could be way less.  That second year of control versus Burnes has to be paid for somehow.

There is nothing that requires the Orioles to have actually made a strong, competitive offer. They could have had this offer on the table for Cease and waited to see if the White Sox would take it. They shouldn’t have.

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27 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Their payroll is now under $100M, whereas they get significant revenue sharing plus an additional $103M each season for MLB.com and National TV contracts. The Orioles are also under $100M even after this trade.

Tampa Bay, Miami, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Oakland make up the rest of the eight teams under the annual national revenue share threshold, before tens of millions in additional team revenue sharing.

Eighteen free agents remain unsigned with a 2024 Projected 1.0 - 3.3 fWAR per Fangraphs:

  • Infielders (5): M. Chapman  (2.6); A. Rosario (2.3); . Anderson (1.6); G. Urshela (1.1); J. Segura (1.0)
  • Outfielders / DHs (4): C. Bellinger (2.4); J. Soler (1.9); T. Pham (1.0); M. A. Taylor (1.0)
  • Starters (9): B. Snell (3.3); J. Montgomery (3.2); H. J. Ryu (1.8); C. Kershaw (1.8); M. Clevinger (1.3); M. Lorenzen (1.2); Z. Greinke (1.1); D. German (1.1); J. Junis (1.1).

Still hoping the Sox might be able to get Jakob Junis formerly of the Giants and of course Royals.

With no one in the AL Central actually wanting to win the division in 2024 (division favorite just made a trade to hurt their 2024 mlb roster), it’s a real shame Jerry doesn’t just say f*** it and open up the checkbook to sign Montgomery and Ryu. Obviously not going to happen but a starting rotation of Montgomery/Cease/Ryu/Fedde/Kopech would be quite formidable.

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3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

With no one in the AL Central actually wanting to win the division in 2024 (division favorite just made a trade to hurt their 2024 mlb roster), it’s a real shame Jerry doesn’t just say f*** it and open up the checkbook to sign Montgomery and Ryu. Obviously not going to happen but a starting rotation of Montgomery/Cease/Ryu/Fedde/Kopech would be quite formidable.

Eh, I know people say you just have to get into the playoffs, but this team would get absolutely smoked in them, both offensively and via our stupid manager’s decisions.  I also don’t see how we can assume anything all that positive from either Fedde or Kopech as starters.

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3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

With no one in the AL Central actually wanting to win the division in 2024 (division favorite just made a trade to hurt their 2024 mlb roster), it’s a real shame Jerry doesn’t just say f*** it and open up the checkbook to sign Montgomery and Ryu. Obviously not going to happen but a starting rotation of Montgomery/Cease/Ryu/Fedde/Kopech would be quite formidable.

That 4 and 5 is very questionable haha

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7 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

That 4 and 5 is very questionable haha

Sure but that rotation would have a fangraphs projection of 10.0 for the 2024 season even with questionable 4 and 5. Swap Soroka for Kopech if you want to move Kopech back to the pen and it bumps up to 10.4. Not bad, especially in a terrible division it would likely be tops. Defense has improved. Then you’re just hoping and praying for a league average offense, which of course we’d need big final year contract seasons out of Moncada and Eloy for that to have a chance. Add Soler for RF. Even after those 3 moves the payroll would still be at a very reasonable level for this season and beyond. I know, dreaming (only because Jerry is the owner).

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8 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I keep parroting this, but they have a ton of interesting guys outside of Dominguez/Jones. Hampton/Arias would be two pieces I'd love to acquire. I think I'd prefer them to Jones even. Work in some combination of Lombard/Warren/Lalane if you need to. A deal with the Yankees could do wonders for the farm system.

I could be wrong here but maybe Harold was talking about the Brewers trading for Cease?

I know Brewers feel they need to  hold onto minor league talent and trade away expiring contracts to compete. That's why it isn't surprising they moved Burnes. What's more surprising to me is that the O's haven't traded Santander yet. Maybe they were waiting to get a top starter like Burnes before pulling the trigger on Santander. Upgrade starting pitching to make up for potential downgrade in hitting from Kjerstad or Cowser struggling replacing Santander.

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11 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Well, it doesn’t appear that a young OF prospect is coming anytime soon.  When does Getz announce the Whit signing for 2B and RF?

 

6 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Gotta be soon.

I don't think it happens. I'm convinced moving Cease was required to clear $8M for any additional FA.

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6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Sure but that rotation would have a fangraphs projection of 10.0 for the 2024 season even with questionable 4 and 5. Swap Soroka for Kopech if you want to move Kopech back to the pen and it bumps up to 10.4. Not bad, especially in a terrible division it would likely be tops. Defense has improved. Then you’re just hoping and praying for a league average offense, which of course we’d need big final year contract seasons out of Moncada and Eloy for that to have a chance. Add Soler for RF. Even after those 3 moves the payroll would still be at a very reasonable level for this season and beyond. I know, dreaming (only because Jerry is the owner).

Your last sentence nailed it.  Two of your three proposed moves (Montgomery and Soler) are fantasy land for the Sox, especially after recently splurging big free agent money for once on the worst possible choice in Benintendi.

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20 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Agreed.  Logic would say that the Orioles’ offer for Cease was likely higher.  At this point, I wonder if it was one of Hjerstad or Cowser, Ortiz, and Hall.

Fair to say the second 2 were being offered. Or maybe they were trying to move Westburg, Hall and Beavers (something like that).

I have  said I think Getz waiting is playing things correctly and maybe this all works out but it’s looking more and more like he overplayed his hand.

I tried to tell you guys he was never going to move Mayo. The extra year of a worse pitcher isn’t worth a top 25 prospect who will be up and helping the ML club this year. If Getz was still asking for that, as has been hinted (although clearly never verified) he overplayed things here.

But maybe this is the best thing that could happen. I do think the Yankees will feel the pressure here.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Fair to say the second 2 were being offered. Or maybe they were trying to move Westburg, Hall and Beavers (something like that).

I have  said I think Getz waiting is playing things correctly and maybe this all works out but it’s looking more and more like he overplayed his hand.

I tried to tell you guys he was never going to move Mayo. The extra year of a worse pitcher isn’t worth a top 25 prospect who will be up and helping the ML club this year. If Getz was still asking for that, as has been hinted (although clearly never verified) he overplayed things here.

But maybe this is the best thing that could happen. I do think the Yankees will feel the pressure here.

Getz definitely will have overplayed his hand if Cease gets seriously injured in Spring Training or pitching before the trade deadline.  Hindsight or not, his head should roll if that happens.

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3 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Your last sentence nailed it.  Two of your three proposed moves (Montgomery and Soler) are fantasy land for the Sox, especially after recently splurging big free agent money for once on the worst possible choice in Benintendi.

$15M AAV isn’t a big free agent contract. Sure, for Jerry it is, but for real major market teams that’s nothing.

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