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Mlb.com Sox projected lineup and rotation is out


caulfield12
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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/even-red-sox-people-fort-221128300.html
 

Wonder if Red Sox fans think they actually have it worse than White Sox fans?

This is the lowest Boston payroll ($181.2M) in a real season since 2014 ($156.3M), and in inflation adjusted dollars since 2003 ($99.9M).

Meanwhile, this ($132.2M) is the third highest payroll in White Sox history.

Not to mention Red Sox tickets are significantly higher than the "dynamic pricing" charged by Brooks Boyer.

Bottom line, both Sox will suck royally, standard operating procedure for Jerry, not as much for Boston.

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  • 3 weeks later...

WHITE SOX

Lineup:

Andrew Benintendi, LF

Yoán Moncada, 3B

Luis Robert Jr., CF

Eloy Jiménez, DH

Andrew Vaughn, 1B

Dominic Fletcher, RF

Paul DeJong, SS

Nicky Lopez, 2B

Martín Maldonado, C

This group should be much better defensively, but the question remains as to how much they can produce together with the bats. Robert Jr. is one of the best all-around players in the game, and Moncada, Jiménez and Vaughn have the talent for strong years.

Rotation:

Dylan Cease, RHP

Michael Kopech, RHP

Erick Fedde, RHP

Michael Soroka, RHP

Chris Flexen, RHP

There’s plenty of starting depth within the White Sox system, as young hurlers such as Nick Nastrini and Jake Eder aren’t far from Major League action. Garrett Crochet will be viewed as a starter for ‘24, but with 73 innings total on his resume, the left-hander might have to go to Triple-A Charlotte to build up for that new role. It’s also a big season for Kopech as part of the rotation.

MLB.com

 

You know you have problems when Kopech is your #2 and half of SoxTalk doesn't even want him in the rotation any longer.

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On 2/13/2024 at 4:23 PM, Texsox said:

Historically this will be a slightly below average season with historically low expectations. I think they can avoid 100 losses.

They won't beat themselves and don't have anyone on the roster who has been arrested for that. 

They may avoid 100 losses, but not many fans will know about it. Fans have forgotten spring training has started. I've never seen people this checked out, there isn't even false hope. 

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2 minutes ago, The Grinder said:

Like the girl group Bannanarama song  it's gonna be a Cruel Summer 

2024 ST Hitting

  • 28th - HRs
  • 29th - OBP
  • 29th - OPS

2024 ST Pitching

  • 29th - ERA
  • 30th - WHIP
  • 28th - K / BB

 

PS: @caulfield12- I know of Curb Your Enthusiasm but have no cable so no reference from that source. 

 

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9 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

2024 ST Hitting

  • 28th - HRs
  • 29th - OBP
  • 29th - OPS

2024 ST Pitching

  • 29th - ERA
  • 30th - WHIP
  • 28th - K / BB

 

PS: @caulfield12- I know of Curb Your Enthusiasm but have no cable so no reference from that source. 

 

Latest and final season.  Hilarious stuff.  I highly advise…

 

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1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Latest and final season.  Hilarious stuff.  I highly advise…

 

A bit surreal watching an episode c recently after Dennis Miller died with jokes about last wills and who would die first and leaving money to each other.

First Funkhouser (Dodgers' fan) and now this.

Also bizarre how Cheryl Hines (his now ex wife on the show) real life husband Robert Kennedy Jr. might play a significant role in this year's election.

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20 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

A bit surreal watching an episode c recently after Dennis Miller died with jokes about last wills and who would die first and leaving money to each other.

First Funkhouser (Dodgers' fan) and now this.

Also bizarre how Cheryl Hines (his now ex wife on the show) real life husband Robert Kennedy Jr. might play a significant role in this year's election.

Richard Lewis, not Dennis Miller.

I can’t even look at Cheryl Hines now after her most recent plastic surgery.  She looks like a fake wax sculpture.

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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45 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Richard Lewis, not Dennis Miller.

I can’t even look at Cheryl Hines now after her most recent plastic surgery.  She looks like a fake wax sculpture.

Right right. Lewis visibly looked really weak...always had such vitality and self-reflective witticism, especially the standup routines at the heart of his career.

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On 2/13/2024 at 5:35 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

On paper I'm struggling to see 100 home runs out of that entire starting lineup. We had 171 last year. Can we finish dead last this year? Even playing half our games at G-Rate? Maybe I can put some money on it.

In reality you can’t see 100 home runs.  On paper potential world though…

10d for 10

Moncada 25

Robert 40

Eloy 40

Vaughn 25

Fletcher 10

 

Not in a million years but that’s what we should get if life didn’t suck

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42 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Right right. Lewis visibly looked really weak...always had such vitality and self-reflective witticism, especially the standup routines at the heart of his career.

He was looking awful for like the past 3 seasons of Curb.  Looks like he was dying a slow death.

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37 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

No idea what the solution would be but that bottom 3 is an out waiting to happen. If the offense ever were to get momentum those 3 in a row is going to kill it. 

Bottom 3?!?  More like bottom 4, maybe even bottom 5 if Vaughn is his same mediocre sub-.750 OPS self.  Now think if Benintendi repeats his even worse season (.682 OPS) than Vaughn at the top of our order?  Now think if Eloy and Moncada get injured as usual?  A Fletcher/Pillar platoon in RF, and then Sheets if Fletcher struggles?

This seriously has the potential to be one of the worst offenses in Sox history due to the quality and injury proneness of the starting lineup.  The backs of their baseball cards don’t lie…

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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21 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

In reality you can’t see 100 home runs.  On paper potential world though…

10d for 10

Moncada 25

Robert 40

Eloy 40

Vaughn 25

Fletcher 10

Not in a million years but that’s what we should get if life didn’t suck

Current White Sox fWAR Projections by Position:

Overall Position Players:  27th  Overall Pitchers:  29th   Starters: 27th  Bullpen: 29th

By Position: C 29th 1B 20th 2B 29th 3B 19th SS 28th LF 23rd CF 5th RF 29th DH 5th

Home Run Projection: 183       Home Runs Allowed Projection: 230

HR Player (Projected Games)

  1. 33 Luis Robert Jr. (149)
  2. 28 Eloy Jimenez (141)
  3. 25 Andrew Vaughn (146)
  4. 18 Yoan Moncada (143)
  5. 13 Paul DeJong (76)
  6. 10 Andrew Benintendi (138)
  7.   9 Dominic Fletcher (97)
  8.   9 Gavin Sheets (53)
  9.   9 Martin Maldonado (68)
  10.   8 Max Stassi (65)
  11.   5 Colson Montgomery (53)
  12.   5 Lenyn Sosa (36)
  13.   4 Braden Shewmake (34)
  14.   3 Korey Lee (29)
  15.   2 Nicky Lopez (86)
  16.   1 Peyton Burdick (5)
  17.   1 Zach DeLoach (8)
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I was thinking about this some more and our lineup literally has 7 starters/platoons that could struggle to hit a league average .750 OPS.  Anyone who is hopeful for our offense is insane.  The pitching may pan out just because Getz acquired so many options, but the lineup is likely going to be epically horrible.

LF  Benintendi

3B  Moncada

1B  Vaughn

RF  Fletcher / Pillar (Sheets if Fletcher fails)

C   Maldonado / Stassi

SS  DeJong

2B  Lopez

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

I was thinking about this some more and our lineup literally has 7 starters/platoons that could struggle to hit a league average .750 OPS.  Anyone who is hopeful for our offense is insane.  The pitching may pan out just because Getz acquired so many options, but the lineup is likely going to be epically horrible.

LF  Benintendi

3B  Moncada

1B  Vaughn

RF  Fletcher / Pillar (Sheets if Fletcher fails)

C   Maldonado

SS  DeJong

2B  Lopez

Jimenez (.812) Robert Jr. (.810) and Vaughn (.778) are the only three Sox projected over .740.

Three more are projected over .700 (Benintendi .738; Moncada .733 and Sheets .720). A healthy Moncada is the only person I believe can significantly out perform their current projection.

With Popeye and Colas gone from OD consideration, the primary spring training focus for me is the starters and a few relievers (Leasure, Berroa, Ky Bush, Horn, Deivi Garcia, Padilla).

Fear the 26 man will include Chavez, Shaw, Moustakas, Pillar, Mendick and Sheets vs. seeing what you can salvage among the mid 20 year old players in the system.

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30 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Jimenez (.812) Robert Jr. (.810) and Vaughn (.778) are the only three Sox projected over .740.

Three more are projected over .700 (Benintendi .738; Moncada .733 and Sheets .720). A healthy Moncada is the only person I believe can significantly out perform their current projection.

With Popeye and Colas gone from OD consideration, the primary spring training focus for me is the starters and a few relievers (Leasure, Berroa, Ky Bush, Horn, Deivi Garcia, Padilla).

Fear the 26 man will include Chavez, Shaw, Moustakas, Pillar, Mendick and Sheets vs. seeing what you can salvage among the mid 20 year old players in the system.

Agreed, I’d go over on Moncada and under on Vaughn but I truly believe Robert and Eloy are the only sure bets to be above a .750 OPS.  How did a multi-year rebuild end up with this lineup?  My god, I’m serious when I say this but I think an average Sox fan could’ve built a better team with no GM experience and some contract advisors, than what Kenny and Hahn left Getz with and what Getz continued on with.

I do agree with your list of pitchers to watch.  I am hopeful for all of them and will be tuning in especially for Leasure, Berroa, Bush, and Garcia.

I also love the irony of us having a bench of Moustakas, Pillar, and Stassi considering all the years we had terrible bench players.  Now we acquire all of them 3 to 5 years too late.

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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14 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

2024 ST Hitting

  • 28th - HRs
  • 29th - OBP
  • 29th - OPS

2024 ST Pitching

  • 29th - ERA
  • 30th - WHIP
  • 28th - K / BB

 

PS: @caulfield12- I know of Curb Your Enthusiasm but have no cable so no reference from that source. 

 

The White Sox are going to be bad but don't take anything away from spring training stats. It's all meaningless. How are we still doing this in 2024? 

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At this point just having better defense is something positive for me, since that's my favorite part of the game . not sure that I care how many games that they win, as the entire season will seem like spring training for me.

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18 minutes ago, White Sox Park said:

At this point just having better defense is something positive for me, since that's my favorite part of the game . not sure that I care how many games that they win, as the entire season will seem like spring training for me.

I’m starting to question the defense thing, the more I see Sheets in RF.  Also, Maldonado has aged and could just be bad now.  The only true improvement will probably be the middle infield with DeJong and Lopez but their awful bats will counter what their gloves bring.

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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Not going to bother finding the source, but I saw some research that IIRC was presented at SABR last year showing that spring training stats are useful — your projections will be more accurate if you incorporate spring training stats into your models. The main issue with spring training is sample size, so of course you don't want to conclude too much from 25 at bats or whatever it may be. On the team level, you do have a bigger sample size although it's cluttered with non-rostered guys. But the fact that your minor leaguers are terrible is also relevant for how the season will end up going.

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2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

The White Sox are going to be bad but don't take anything away from spring training stats. It's all meaningless. How are we still doing this in 2024? 

For the team to start to legitimately buy into the shift in approach...seeing a change in either individual results or team record would tend to be at least one indicator of some type of positive change.

This just feels like more of what was expected...even with the rising positives on the minor league side of things.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

The White Sox are going to be bad but don't take anything away from spring training stats. It's all meaningless. How are we still doing this in 2024? 

In general, I would agree but…

2024 ST Hitting

  • 28th - HRs
  • 29th - OBP
  • 29th - OPS

2024 ST Pitching

  • 29th - ERA
  • 30th - WHIP
  • 28th - K / BB

2023 Hitting

  • 20th - HRs
  • 30th - OBP
  • 29th - OPS

2023 Pitching

  • 26th - ERA
  • 24th - WHIP
  • 27th - K / BB
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