Guess Trade Values of Sox Starters

[T R U]

16 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I just don’t see how he’d look more attractive in the offseason compared to July. If we are assuming he’s hitting his innings limit in July and pitches very little to not at all the rest of this season, he isn’t continuing to build trade value in august and September but he is gaining additional service time thereby reducing the acquiring team’s control over him. Are you saying that starting pitching is valued more highly in the offseason versus the trade deadline? I thought we already went thru this with Cease and I don’t think that theory played out to be true.

I don't understand what you don't understand. There is an expiration date for his usefulness this season. Why would someone trade for him at the end of July if he is about to have to get shut down for the year?

However, if he pitches his 100 innings or whatever this year and looks good all year, he becomes much more attractive for next season when its reasonable to expect him to get in the 150 IP range and not be shut down early. That makes him more valuable than right now. Does that make more sense?

[nrockway]

Crochet's value is probably still not super high considering the risk of injury and lack of track record. Pointless to trade him for now. Fedde probably has some value if he can keep this up for a while, I'd look to trade him and/or Kopech eventually for a middle infielder. I still like, in theory, a trade for Jonathan India. Their pitching is a little suspect and they have Marte, McLain, Arroyo ready to replace him. Kopech for India seems fair, Reds get a good closer who they can take a crack at turning back into a useful starter. 

Soroka is a guy who has more value to us than other teams I think. He's a free agent after this year and I don't think he's in a position like Lynn/Giolito to be traded for a prospect. I hope we can re-sign him for $10mil-ish AAV if he can prove to be a 4-4.5 ERA starter. 

[T R U]

7 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Crochet's value is probably still not super high considering the risk of injury and lack of track record. Pointless to trade him for now. Fedde probably has some value if he can keep this up for a while, I'd look to trade him and/or Kopech eventually for a middle infielder. I still like, in theory, a trade for Jonathan India. Their pitching is a little suspect and they have Marte, McLain, Arroyo ready to replace him. Kopech for India seems fair, Reds get a good closer who they can take a crack at turning back into a useful starter. 

Soroka is a guy who has more value to us than other teams I think. He's a free agent after this year and I don't think he's in a position like Lynn/Giolito to be traded for a prospect. I hope we can re-sign him for $10mil-ish AAV if he can prove to be a 4-4.5 ERA starter. 

Hard pass on Soroka. He has a 6.06 FIP and can't strike anyone out. You absolutely hope he can get hot and flip him for something interesting.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

51 minutes ago, T R U said:

I don't understand what you don't understand. There is an expiration date for his usefulness this season. Why would someone trade for him at the end of July if he is about to have to get shut down for the year?

However, if he pitches his 100 innings or whatever this year and looks good all year, he becomes much more attractive for next season when its reasonable to expect him to get in the 150 IP range and not be shut down early. That makes him more valuable than right now. Does that make more sense?

Give me the player with more cheap control over the player with less control 10/10 times. You and others have stated he’s basically useless for a contending team this season because he won’t pitch in August/september. How does his value increase in the offseason compared to July? If anything, his value remains the same unless you are presuming values of starting pitchers increase in the offseason compared to the trade deadline. And again, I don’t think that’s true based on what we’ve seen with others in the recent past.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

45 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Crochet's value is probably still not super high considering the risk of injury and lack of track record. Pointless to trade him for now. Fedde probably has some value if he can keep this up for a while, I'd look to trade him and/or Kopech eventually for a middle infielder. I still like, in theory, a trade for Jonathan India. Their pitching is a little suspect and they have Marte, McLain, Arroyo ready to replace him. Kopech for India seems fair, Reds get a good closer who they can take a crack at turning back into a useful starter. 

Soroka is a guy who has more value to us than other teams I think. He's a free agent after this year and I don't think he's in a position like Lynn/Giolito to be traded for a prospect. I hope we can re-sign him for $10mil-ish AAV if he can prove to be a 4-4.5 ERA starter. 

No way I’m locking up Soroka for $10M AAV. 5th starters can be found via free agency for that type of money on single year commitments.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

On 4/9/2024 at 11:56 AM, Chisoxfn said:

My best guess for people the Sox might  be able to trade for real value - under certain conditions:

Fedde - If he is pitching well - he will be attractive given his contract and fact a team would have him for another year.

Kopech - If he is showing off as a dynamic reliever - I think the Sox can get real value for him. If he is just meh, nothing, but if he's actually looking dynamic out of the pen as a 1-2 inning closer/legit weapon, yeah I think they can get some serious value at the deadline.  

Moncada - Expiring - so if he is playing well and healthy - I think we could be surprised and he certainly has it in him in a contract year to put up. Not saying you are getting a high end prospect but you could get some raw talent and/or a piece and some international money or something like that. 

Clevinger - He's cheap, no option connected, and if he actually pitches well (say another year removed from injury he is better than he was last year (say the FIP matches the ERA and is mid 3's - not saying I would predict it but its certainly possible), I do think at the deadline you would see a team give up something of value for him (not saying some Top 100 guy but I think a productive Clevinger will be more valuable than we think this deadline vs. last (last deadline the option, coming off the DL, and still pretty fresh from all the headline news). The above I know is an out there view - but at deadline if a bunch of teams are in the mix and have some injuries in the rotation, having someone who can take the ball - to some extent even a benefit that he starts the year a month late (so he'll have a bit more left on his arm for a stretch run).

 

If I squint:

Eloy - There probably is some alternate universe where he comes back from this abbductor injury and actually stays healthy and puts up an .850-.900 OPS.  If that happens - I suppose you might get a team looking for a bat who makes a deal.  BUT you aren't going to get much given that injury history.  

Soroka - I suppose there is a world where Soroka ends up being better than I think and you can get a raw player or someone in a 40 man roster crunch.  

 

That's it - I don't see anyone else tradeable (for anything other than say a bag of balls). I'm ignoring Robert cause I can't imagine you get maximum value for him at the deadline if he's coming back from injury and same with Crochet.  If he is approaching his innings limit and pitching well - I don't know that a team would give you the value it would take to make that move.  

Note: Above also tells you why this team is so bad.  I mean the whole roster is basically filled with nothing burgers.  

You know, you might be right about Kopech after watching him pitch the other night. If he turns himself into a dominant closer, that could very well return the Sox two 40/45 prospects in July.  I have to see more still but so far so good outside of the occasional lapses in his control.

[WestEddy]

On 4/9/2024 at 4:37 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Give me the player with more cheap control over the player with less control 10/10 times. You and others have stated he’s basically useless for a contending team this season because he won’t pitch in August/september. How does his value increase in the offseason compared to July? If anything, his value remains the same unless you are presuming values of starting pitchers increase in the offseason compared to the trade deadline. And again, I don’t think that’s true based on what we’ve seen with others in the recent past.

He has the value of a pitcher who can contribute all of 2025, as opposed to a guy who has reached his innings limit for 2024. And of course Getz would want the receiving team to pay for August, September and October Crochet, regardless of how useful he'd be. 

[caulfield12]

9. Garrett Crochet, White Sox
It raised some eyebrows when the White Sox bestowed their Opening Day start on Crochet, who had pitched exclusively in relief in the Majors and had returned from Tommy John surgery late last season. Well, now Crochet is opening eyes. The 24-year-old lefty, the 11th overall pick in the 2020 Draft, has a 2.00 ERA and 21-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his first three MLB starts.

9th in MLB starting pitching power rankings...right ahead of Cole Ragans.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

This looks a lot different than it did a few weeks ago. I clearly overvalued Crochet and undervalued Fedde. Soroka has moved into the no trade value category although perhaps Flexen can instead return a couple fliers if he’s able to right the ship.

[WhiteSox2023]

53 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

This looks a lot different than it did a few weeks ago. I clearly overvalued Crochet and undervalued Fedde. Soroka has moved into the no trade value category although perhaps Flexen can instead return a couple fliers if he’s able to right the ship.

I wouldn’t be surprised if things change again.  But Flexen won’t be returning anything.  His peripherals are terrible.  Too many walks and he doesn’t strike anyone out.

Edited 18 hours ago by WhiteSox2023

[oldsox]

37 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if things change again.  But Flexen won’t be returning anything.  His peripherals are terrible.  Too many walks and he doesn’t strike anyone out.

Plus, he made hitters hit fly balls to the Center Fielder.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

42 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if things change again.  But Flexen won’t be returning anything.  His peripherals are terrible.  Too many walks and he doesn’t strike anyone out.

FIP in mid 5’s. Didn’t say he was great but if he improves just a tad he could return a couple long shot fliers.

I know you’ve been waiting for Fedde to fail but he continues to look outstanding.

[zisk]

11 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

FIP in mid 5’s. Didn’t say he was great but if he improves just a tad he could return a couple long shot fliers.

I know you’ve been waiting for Fedde to fail but he continues to look outstanding.

I'd trade Fedde now if possible. One prospect between 100-150 and he gone. Then take the 13 million left on his contract and pump

it into the farm system. I love his story, but he''ll regress from here. It was a great week end though. There are at least 75 Sox fans

who came in off the ledge today. I came in last night myself.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, zisk said:

I'd trade Fedde now if possible. One prospect between 100-150 and he gone. Then take the 13 million left on his contract and pump

it into the farm system. I love his story, but he''ll regress from here. It was a great week end though. There are at least 75 Sox fans

who came in off the ledge today. I came in last night myself.

Fedde has the same ERA as Corbin Burnes. Of course he’s going to regress some but even if “regresses” to a low 3s ERA into July, that’s likely to be one of the top starters available at the trade deadline.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Fedde has the same ERA as Corbin Burnes. Of course he’s going to regress some but even if “regresses” to a low 3s ERA into July, that’s likely to be one of the top starters available at the trade deadline.

If he regressed to 4.00, but still throwing 6 plus innings every 5 days, he has plenty of value 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If he regressed to 4.00, but still throwing 6 plus innings every 5 days, he has plenty of value 

True. From KBO last season and the first month of MLB this season, he’s shown he can be effective deep into games. Durability from SP alone is valuable in today’s game.

[caulfield12]

The closest parallel to Fedde is probably Nick Martinez.

He signed a $26 million/3 year deal with the Reds, and experienced success with the Padres in a swing-man role after coming over from Korean success.

Of course, Fedde originally had a lot of hype as a first round draft pick as well.

 

You're going to be looking at a Top 75-125 prospect there, depending on the financial situation of the acquiring team and how valuable that locked in salary for 2025 would actually be for them.

[WhiteSox2023]

3 hours ago, zisk said:

I'd trade Fedde now if possible. One prospect between 100-150 and he gone. Then take the 13 million left on his contract and pump

it into the farm system. I love his story, but he''ll regress from here. It was a great week end though. There are at least 75 Sox fans

who came in off the ledge today. I came in last night myself.

Great post, and agreed.  Sell him high before he turns into a pumpkin.  He doesn’t do much for this team the next two seasons anyways.

Edited 14 hours ago by WhiteSox2023

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Great post, and agreed.  Sell him high before he turns into a pumpkin.  He doesn’t do much for this team the next two seasons.

But they still have to protect the Nastrinis and Cannons of the world that are not ready for the majors.

Other than Thorpe and possibly Iriarte...nobody jumps out quite yet in the higher levels if we keep churning the big league roster.

Which means a lot more Keller/Clevinger to protect the youngsters from getting overexposed.  Delicate balancing act.

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Fedde has the same ERA as Corbin Burnes. Of course he’s going to regress some but even if “regresses” to a low 3s ERA into July, that’s likely to be one of the top starters available at the trade deadline.

He won’t be one of the top starters available at the trade deadline because he doesn’t have name recognition and he hasn’t done this before.  I doubt other teams will even view him as highly as Giolito and Lynn of last year.  But if you can get a return for Fedde like those two brought back, you have to jump on it.

Edited 14 hours ago by WhiteSox2023

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

He won’t be one of the top starters available at the trade deadline because he doesn’t have name recognition and he hasn’t done this before.  I doubt other teams will even view him as highly as Giolito and Lynn of last year.  But if you can get a return for Fedde like those two brought back, you have to jump on it.

It all depends on how he holds up against the best line-ups in baseball over the next couple of months...these would be his next five starts, theoretically.

 

StL

CLE

Nationals (obviously not that great a line-up after CJ Abrams right now)

NYY or Toronto

Baltimore

Edited 14 hours ago by caulfield12

[greg775]

Not to be a contrarian, but if the goal is to trade anybody with an MLB pulse at the deadline for prospects who are not near ready, won't next year's team on paper be just as miserable or worse than this year's squad?

I mean if they trade any pitcher who is meh or better and Eloy (and Moncada) if Eloy keeps hitting, won't next year's team draw even fewer fans and interest than this year's? Oh well as you all know I don't value anybody on our current roster except Crochet, Clevinger, Kopech, Eloy (maybe), Robert and Pham and Mendick. Getting rid of all of them will leave the Sox mired in this disgusting swamp they are in now.

[tjp1684]

42 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Not to be a contrarian, but if the goal is to trade anybody with an MLB pulse at the deadline for prospects who are not near ready, won't next year's team on paper be just as miserable or worse than this year's squad?

I mean if they trade any pitcher who is meh or better and Eloy (and Moncada) if Eloy keeps hitting, won't next year's team draw even fewer fans and interest than this year's? Oh well as you all know I don't value anybody on our current roster except Crochet, Clevinger, Kopech, Eloy (maybe), Robert and Pham and Mendick. Getting rid of all of them will leave the Sox mired in this disgusting swamp they are in now.

I would agree that it means we would not compete in 2025.  I can’t see that being until 26 or 27 where we try to do something.  I have no faith in JR investing in key FAs next year though to complement hopefully some young talent panning out.  Seems to me we go with not-the-lowest payroll but then work to pare it down with trading away guys we signed and replacing them with guys making the minimum or just above-minimum.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

Not to be a contrarian, but if the goal is to trade anybody with an MLB pulse at the deadline for prospects who are not near ready, won't next year's team on paper be just as miserable or worse than this year's squad?

I mean if they trade any pitcher who is meh or better and Eloy (and Moncada) if Eloy keeps hitting, won't next year's team draw even fewer fans and interest than this year's? Oh well as you all know I don't value anybody on our current roster except Crochet, Clevinger, Kopech, Eloy (maybe), Robert and Pham and Mendick. Getting rid of all of them will leave the Sox mired in this disgusting swamp they are in now.

This team isn't competing for anything for the next several years. That changes of course if new ownership comes into play and immediately becomes aggressive in talent acquisition. 

[WestEddy]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

Not to be a contrarian, but if the goal is to trade anybody with an MLB pulse at the deadline for prospects who are not near ready, won't next year's team on paper be just as miserable or worse than this year's squad?

I mean if they trade any pitcher who is meh or better and Eloy (and Moncada) if Eloy keeps hitting, won't next year's team draw even fewer fans and interest than this year's? Oh well as you all know I don't value anybody on our current roster except Crochet, Clevinger, Kopech, Eloy (maybe), Robert and Pham and Mendick. Getting rid of all of them will leave the Sox mired in this disgusting swamp they are in now.

My guess is that Getz and Bannister would have a better idea of what pitchers to pursue next year, and maybe the bad rumors of a horrible clubhouse die down where some better offensive players might come aboard. Most of the guys you named aren't even controllable after this year, anyway. Pitching's not a problem, in that we got guys near in the pipeline, and could just start Nastrini, Cannon and Thorpe. (Martin?) Hitting's a bit trickier, but Pham and Grossman were available at the end of Spring Training, and guys like Brandon Belt are still unsigned, if you need bats.