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Path to .500 in 2025


striker
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I got to thinking about luck, both bad and good. Sox are lucky this year to have Fedde and Crochet having the years they are having. 2 of the best 15 pitchers in ALL OF BASEBALL. That was not something that was predicted. If they don’t trade Cease they have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. That is pretty awesome. Their bullpen has sucked but they also traded a really good reliever in Santos. Sure he has been injured but he is coming back. They have a ton of blown saves. If they are league average, maybe that’s a 10-15 game win swing. They could have signed Pham in the beginning of the year which would have added wins. Mayne they caved too soon.

Don’t trade Cease or Santos. Robert, Moncada and Santos stay healthy. Sign a bat like Teoscar. Maybe this is a good team in 2024.

My point being, maybe this team is closer to contention than we think. Maybe we don’t have to sell off everyone. My challenge for you is to make a plan to get us close to .500 in 2025 with a $170m payroll. 

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3 hours ago, striker said:

I got to thinking about luck, both bad and good. Sox are lucky this year to have Fedde and Crochet having the years they are having. 2 of the best 15 pitchers in ALL OF BASEBALL. That was not something that was predicted. If they don’t trade Cease they have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. That is pretty awesome. Their bullpen has sucked but they also traded a really good reliever in Santos. Sure he has been injured but he is coming back. They have a ton of blown saves. If they are league average, maybe that’s a 10-15 game win swing. They could have signed Pham in the beginning of the year which would have added wins. Mayne they caved too soon.

Don’t trade Cease or Santos. Robert, Moncada and Santos stay healthy. Sign a bat like Teoscar. Maybe this is a good team in 2024.

My point being, maybe this team is closer to contention than we think. Maybe we don’t have to sell off everyone. My challenge for you is to make a plan to get us close to .500 in 2025 with a $170m payroll. 

No way the payroll will be closer to $200 million than $100.

We're not the free spending Royals.

Haha could spend up to that market on the bullpen alone and guarantee absolutely nothing.

 

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19 minutes ago, Falstaff said:

.500 in 2025 might be a bit tough but the Sox are going to be better.

 

Is that on the basis that they can't get much worse?

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1 hour ago, Falstaff said:

Does anyone know if the Sox have a closer they are grooming in the minors?  Is Leasure a viable option?   That position needs to be addressed for 2025 

Erick Adler?

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2 hours ago, Falstaff said:

.500 in 2025 might be a bit tough but the Sox are going to be better.

 

Saying they will be better than 2024 isn't saying much. They need to spend but I doubt that they will.

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10 hours ago, striker said:

I got to thinking about luck, both bad and good. Sox are lucky this year to have Fedde and Crochet having the years they are having. 2 of the best 15 pitchers in ALL OF BASEBALL. That was not something that was predicted. If they don’t trade Cease they have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. That is pretty awesome. Their bullpen has sucked but they also traded a really good reliever in Santos. Sure he has been injured but he is coming back. They have a ton of blown saves. If they are league average, maybe that’s a 10-15 game win swing. They could have signed Pham in the beginning of the year which would have added wins. Mayne they caved too soon.

Don’t trade Cease or Santos. Robert, Moncada and Santos stay healthy. Sign a bat like Teoscar. Maybe this is a good team in 2024.

My point being, maybe this team is closer to contention than we think. Maybe we don’t have to sell off everyone. My challenge for you is to make a plan to get us close to .500 in 2025 with a $170m payroll. 

We have won 26 games this year and our Pythagorean expectation would be 27.  We are in fact a really bad team who has performed bad.  I think this idea is a fun exercise, but 2026 is a much more realistic target to shoot for .500.  You are talking about a 34 game improvement or more in one season if the goal is 2025, which is simply not realistic.  17/year is doable if Getz hits HRs on Robert, Crochet, & Fedde trades.

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1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

Is that on the basis that they can't get much worse?

The first half, at least, is going to be really bad. Think of the trades that are coming. 

The question of how long depends on how much Captain Panic buries the young players on the roster.

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2 minutes ago, DoUEvenShift said:

I was about to type up a bunch of hypotheticals, but it's all just pointless. I say wait until 8/1 to revisit. We don't even know who's going to be here. 

Get out of here with that pragmatism.

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People need to be prepared of the real scenario where this team is worse in 2025, although with growth. Remember that it’s a very real possibility we go into next year without Crochet, Fedde, and Robert. 

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4 hours ago, Falstaff said:

Does anyone know if the Sox have a closer they are grooming in the minors?  Is Leasure a viable option?   That position needs to be addressed for 2025 

You don't need a good closer if you're rarely winning in the 9th :)

13 hours ago, striker said:

I got to thinking about luck, both bad and good. Sox are lucky this year to have Fedde and Crochet having the years they are having. 2 of the best 15 pitchers in ALL OF BASEBALL. That was not something that was predicted. If they don’t trade Cease they have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. That is pretty awesome. Their bullpen has sucked but they also traded a really good reliever in Santos. Sure he has been injured but he is coming back. They have a ton of blown saves. If they are league average, maybe that’s a 10-15 game win swing. They could have signed Pham in the beginning of the year which would have added wins. Mayne they caved too soon.

Don’t trade Cease or Santos. Robert, Moncada and Santos stay healthy. Sign a bat like Teoscar. Maybe this is a good team in 2024.

My point being, maybe this team is closer to contention than we think. Maybe we don’t have to sell off everyone. My challenge for you is to make a plan to get us close to .500 in 2025 with a $170m payroll. 

But it was a damn good post

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

No way the payroll will be closer to $200 million than $100.

We're not the free spending Royals.

Haha could spend up to that market on the bullpen alone and guarantee absolutely nothing.

 

Don't underestimate the moronic tendencies of the organization. They may extend Moncada and Jimenez

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10 minutes ago, T R U said:

People need to be prepared of the real scenario where this team is worse in 2025, although with growth.

I think this is the ideal scenario. A bad team with some promising young pieces demonstrating growth. Show some hope for the near future while you are ideally securing a pick in the top 5 before the big market penalization hits again. Then start spending some money on pieces to fill out where you missed on prospects. And hopefully that prospect depth has been bolstered by strong returns on Robert/Crochet. (Or if they want to extend Crochet, that'd be cool too.)

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14 hours ago, striker said:

I got to thinking about luck, both bad and good. Sox are lucky this year to have Fedde and Crochet having the years they are having. 2 of the best 15 pitchers in ALL OF BASEBALL. That was not something that was predicted. If they don’t trade Cease they have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. That is pretty awesome. Their bullpen has sucked but they also traded a really good reliever in Santos. Sure he has been injured but he is coming back. They have a ton of blown saves. If they are league average, maybe that’s a 10-15 game win swing. They could have signed Pham in the beginning of the year which would have added wins. Mayne they caved too soon.

Don’t trade Cease or Santos. Robert, Moncada and Santos stay healthy. Sign a bat like Teoscar. Maybe this is a good team in 2024.

My point being, maybe this team is closer to contention than we think. Maybe we don’t have to sell off everyone. My challenge for you is to make a plan to get us close to .500 in 2025 with a $170m payroll. 

The path to .500 in 2025?

New ownership.

That's the only way.

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4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

The first half, at least, is going to be really bad. Think of the trades that are coming. 

The question of how long depends on how much Captain Panic buries the young players on the roster.

I was kind of hoping he would be gone by then, but knowing the current ownership he will still be around.

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1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

I think this is the ideal scenario. A bad team with some promising young pieces demonstrating growth. Show some hope for the near future while you are ideally securing a pick in the top 5 before the big market penalization hits again. Then start spending some money on pieces to fill out where you missed on prospects. And hopefully that prospect depth has been bolstered by strong returns on Robert/Crochet. (Or if they want to extend Crochet, that'd be cool too.)

But this will only work if the current manager is gone, which under the current ownership is not a certainty even after this embarrassment of a season.

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9 hours ago, Falstaff said:

Does anyone know if the Sox have a closer they are grooming in the minors?  Is Leasure a viable option?   That position needs to be addressed for 2025 

they have a few options, pitching is the one area they seem to be in pretty good shape for the most part.  Still not sure if Iriarte is gonna pan out as a starter, he's been getting tattooed lately, so they might move him into the bullpen if he doesn't stick in the rotation.  they have quite a few guys who can bring the heat 

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2 hours ago, Chimpton said:

But this will only work if the current manager is gone, which under the current ownership is not a certainty even after this embarrassment of a season.

take it however you will, but Bob Nightengale made it pretty clear the Sox are moving on from Grifol after 2024

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