Very well done piece by Fegan on State of the Sox

[caulfield12]

24 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I think some of the folks (not you) that are against rushing prospects are living in the past. If a kid is 22 or up and is considered an elite prospect, bring him up. The Royals let Witt have a miserable season, then he ultimately became a star rather quickly. See the ball, hit the ball. It's not a complicated game. Let Colson play on opening day. Why not? The team is gonna lose 110 regardless.

Witt Jr. was always unquestionably one of the three best prospects in the entire sport...whereas Keith Law has Montgomery outside his Top 108 right now.

[greg775]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Witt Jr. was always unquestionably one of the three best prospects in the entire sport...whereas Keith Law has Montgomery outside his Top 108 right now.

outside top 108? and we're supposed to start winning mabe in 2026?

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

outside top 108? and we're supposed to start winning mabe in 2026?

He's #40 in most publications  around there

[WestEddy]

5 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

That’s all WE employs — hyperbole.  He is saying I raved about one mediocre player when all I said is that Taylor would be a good “flip candidate” for Getz to acquire last offseason.

Meanwhile, WE is the same guy that claimed last year’s bullpen could be lockdown.  So while he is spouting hyperbole about how I was wrong about one mediocre “flip candidate”, WE was wrong about an entire crappy bullpen that his lord and master Getz built.

But this is what WE does.  He’s a lot like Jerry — defer, deflect, etc.  Anything to ignore the absolute flaming dumpster state of the White Sox.

I said that once. You're good at searching the site. How many times did you beat us over the head with M.A.T.? Njigba? Or this dumpster-diving meme? 

[WhiteSox2023]

55 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I said that once. You're good at searching the site. How many times did you beat us over the head with M.A.T.? Njigba? Or this dumpster-diving meme? 

Funny how Getz has now acquired both guys I thought would be cheap worthwhile pickups last year.  So is Getz as stupid as me for acquiring those two guys?  You can’t have it both ways.  And I never said either guy was going to save the season or be flipped for good prospects, perhaps low level A ball prospects.  Once again, this is your continued hyperbole and you do it to everyone here that you disagree with.

The White Sox dumpster diving meme never gets old because they have done it for years and years and years.  The strategy has not changed from Kenny, to Hahn, to Getz.  I don’t know how you could even try to deny this.  Everyone on this site knows it and has lived through it.

Edited February 13 by WhiteSox2023

[fathom]

So on the podcast with Chuck, Fegan was really high on Ramos and Baldwin.  Found it very interesting that he said if Vargas had an awful spring, you never know if they might put him on waivers.  He predicted a starting infield of Vaughn, Drury, Colson and Vargas (only cause of Ramos injury).  Justin Anderson is his closer prediction.

[WhiteSox2023]

11 minutes ago, fathom said:

So on the podcast with Chuck, Fegan was really high on Ramos and Baldwin.  Found it very interesting that he said if Vargas had an awful spring, you never know if they might put him on waivers.  He predicted a starting infield of Vaughn, Drury, Colson and Vargas (only cause of Ramos injury).  Justin Anderson is his closer prediction.

I don’t believe that for a second.  There’s no way Getz admits complete failure with the Fedde trade less than a year after making it to retain Drury.  He did already cut Steven Wilson from the Cease trade but Vargas was the main piece that came back from the Fedde trade.

I think Drury still makes the opening day roster somehow but it won’t be at the expense of Vargas.

Justin Anderson as the closer would be hilarious.  He would blow so many saves with the number of guys he walks.

Edited February 13 by WhiteSox2023

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I don’t believe that for a second.  There’s no way Getz admits complete failure with the Fedde trade less than a year after making it to retain Drury.  He did already cut Steven Wilson from the Cease trade but Vargas was the main piece that came back from the Fedde trade.

I think Drury still makes the opening day roster somehow but it won’t be at the expense of Vargas.

Justin Anderson as the closer would be hilarious.  He would blow so many saves with the number of guys he walks.

He also already waived DeLoach.

[WhiteSox2023]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

He also already waived DeLoach.

Yep, point taken.  But Vargas was the headliner of that trade.  DeLoach was probably the second or third piece of the Santos trade.  But man, these trades aren’t aging well rather quickly.

Edited February 13 by WhiteSox2023

[Bob Sacamano]

11 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This is the second time this week where you’ve said they aren’t that stupid and my brain immediately responded “are you sure?”

They do like to test that don't they?

[greg775]

10 hours ago, fathom said:

So on the podcast with Chuck, Fegan was really high on Ramos and Baldwin.  Found it very interesting that he said if Vargas had an awful spring, you never know if they might put him on waivers.  He predicted a starting infield of Vaughn, Drury, Colson and Vargas (only cause of Ramos injury).  Justin Anderson is his closer prediction.

Reaction: 1.) Happy about Colson (at some point this is an entertainment business and following his progress might be moderately exciting; it would for a second make me wonder if I should buy the MLB package). 2.) Who the heck is Drury? Is Justin Anderson that former Royals guy? He reeks IMO. ... Is anybody ever gonna discuss projections for our pitching staff? By far it's the biggest bunch of no names in Sox history. Not hyperbole. I've followed the Sox forever and can't name one starter still. Have to check the articles for names.

[GreenSox]

17 hours ago, greg775 said:

I think some of the folks (not you) that are against rushing prospects are living in the past. If a kid is 22 or up and is considered an elite prospect, bring him up. The Royals let Witt have a miserable season, then he ultimately became a star rather quickly. See the ball, hit the ball. It's not a complicated game. Let Colson play on opening day. Why not? The team is gonna lose 110 regardless.

To me, service time is the only reason to hold him back if he's reasonably ready. 

I sort of agree with you though that rushing  a prospect isn't the problem that perhaps it was in  yesteryear.  And with AAA in Charlotte....what does anyone learn there?  Which prospects have really upped their game in Charlotte and proved they were ready?   It's more like a purgatory where you sort of have to do your time before you can play in the majors.

[caulfield12]

48 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

To me, service time is the only reason to hold him back if he's reasonably ready. 

I sort of agree with you though that rushing  a prospect isn't the problem that perhaps it was in  yesteryear.  And with AAA in Charlotte....what does anyone learn there?  Which prospects have really upped their game in Charlotte and proved they were ready?   It's more like a purgatory where you sort of have to do your time before you can play in the majors.

For pitchers, it seems (for the Sox) more and more the trend is going to be to completely SKIP over Charlotte and keep them down at Birmingham competing for league championships as long as possible as collective units/rotations.

But it also obviously skews offensive numbers.

Which is why Montgomery should be pushing a 850-900ish OPS and not low 700's if he really wants a promotion.

Ofc, the White Sox are going off his last 4-6 weeks of play and the AFL and largely ignoring the rest of his struggles.

[kitekrazy]

22 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

For pitchers, it seems (for the Sox) more and more the trend is going to be to completely SKIP over Charlotte and keep them down at Birmingham competing for league championships as long as possible as collective units/rotations.

But it also obviously skews offensive numbers.

Which is why Montgomery should be pushing a 850-900ish OPS and not low 700's if he really wants a promotion.

Ofc, the White Sox are going off his last 4-6 weeks of play and the AFL and largely ignoring the rest of his struggles.

I'm trying to figure out where "big league ready" was in that.  The FL is fools gold since it's basically all levels of farm systems. 

[nrockway]

This guy is too good for sports. Write speeches for rich people, man. 

[nrockway]

For someone seeking to depict the White Sox as up-to-date and even forward-thinking, it was a moment to demur, rather than to embrace nostalgia, or reveal if he has a “What Would Roland Hemond Do?” poster in his office.
 

very clever. what button do I press to block quote?

 

 

 

 

[FriendlyNorthsider]

On 2/13/2025 at 9:02 PM, caulfield12 said:

For pitchers, it seems (for the Sox) more and more the trend is going to be to completely SKIP over Charlotte and keep them down at Birmingham competing for league championships as long as possible as collective units/rotations.

But it also obviously skews offensive numbers.

Which is why Montgomery should be pushing a 850-900ish OPS and not low 700's if he really wants a promotion.

Ofc, the White Sox are going off his last 4-6 weeks of play and the AFL and largely ignoring the rest of his struggles.

To somewhat support that, Colson's wRC+ (which is related to his competition) was 88 last year. It'll be interesting to see which version of Montgomery we see this year. The plus of last year plus fall is that the plate discipline is there and the power has been developing. 

The downside last year was obviously contact and strikeouts. What was interesting is that his called strike percentage actually went down from 2023 from 18% to 15%. His swing and miss % went up about four points however. That put him from a pretty elite tier for a guy with pop to 44th in the International league. His swing profile went from very good to slightly above average. His pitch selection and contact levels are very similar across the board to what Ian Happ did in the MLB last season. For what its worth, Happs swing and miss has actually improved from his AAA stint and throughout his years in the MLB. Happ and Montgomery have pretty similar exit velocities and LD/GB/FB percentages. Colson had a slight LD% advantage, but had a ridiculously high 26.7% Infield Flyball rate.

The infield fly rate stat is really interesting as a side note. 26.7% is INSANELY high. The average in the bigs is around 7% and the highest last year was 20.7%. In 2023 Colson was at around 18 % which still poor. If people write off Colson's .281 BABIP as just unlucky, I think they'd be mistaken. Guys with high IFFB rates like Edwin Encarnacion (14.5%) tend to have really low BABIPS. Usually, guys with more IFFBs have a high fly ball rate but that's not the case with Colson. He hits plenty of line drives and grounder so I don't really think it's a launch angle issue. Most infield fly balls happen on high and inside pitches (mostly cutters and four seams). I don't have his heat map, so Im not positive that location is the issue but I think its something to look into. The Sox need to find what the issue is before opposing scouts do otherwise he is going to have even more trouble.

The good thing is that I think if they can figure out what the issue is, there is a ton of room for growth. Isaac Paredes who lead the league last year was also dreadful at this in the minors (mid 20s to low 30s). He never really figured it out. I cant really find many examples of guys turning their IFFB around drastically but thats mainly out of laziness. If I were his hitting coach I would clip together every IFFB to see what his issue is. Does he need to lay off some inside pitches? Adjust himself in the batters box? Shorten up the swing? I really don't know what the fix is if there is one. Guys with high IFFB rates can still be great hitters, but mainly they need to be power guys to be stars. Their BABIPs live in the mid to upper .200s. Corbin Carroll went from 11.7% in 2023 to 20.2% in 2024 and his BABIP cratered. 

If he can get the rate down to the bad range (15-16%) you are looking at a really solid hitter. I'll be really interested to follow this over the year

 

[oldsox]

Mr. FN, are you a hitting Coach somewhere?

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

To somewhat support that, Colson's wRC+ (which is related to his competition) was 88 last year. It'll be interesting to see which version of Montgomery we see this year. The plus of last year plus fall is that the plate discipline is there and the power has been developing. 

The downside last year was obviously contact and strikeouts. What was interesting is that his called strike percentage actually went down from 2023 from 18% to 15%. His swing and miss % went up about four points however. That put him from a pretty elite tier for a guy with pop to 44th in the International league. His swing profile went from very good to slightly above average. His pitch selection and contact levels are very similar across the board to what Ian Happ did in the MLB last season. For what its worth, Happs swing and miss has actually improved from his AAA stint and throughout his years in the MLB. Happ and Montgomery have pretty similar exit velocities and LD/GB/FB percentages. Colson had a slight LD% advantage, but had a ridiculously high 26.7% Infield Flyball rate.

The infield fly rate stat is really interesting as a side note. 26.7% is INSANELY high. The average in the bigs is around 7% and the highest last year was 20.7%. In 2023 Colson was at around 18 % which still poor. If people write off Colson's .281 BABIP as just unlucky, I think they'd be mistaken. Guys with high IFFB rates like Edwin Encarnacion (14.5%) tend to have really low BABIPS. Usually, guys with more IFFBs have a high fly ball rate but that's not the case with Colson. He hits plenty of line drives and grounder so I don't really think it's a launch angle issue. Most infield fly balls happen on high and inside pitches (mostly cutters and four seams). I don't have his heat map, so Im not positive that location is the issue but I think its something to look into. The Sox need to find what the issue is before opposing scouts do otherwise he is going to have even more trouble.

The good thing is that I think if they can figure out what the issue is, there is a ton of room for growth. Isaac Paredes who lead the league last year was also dreadful at this in the minors (mid 20s to low 30s). He never really figured it out. I cant really find many examples of guys turning their IFFB around drastically but thats mainly out of laziness. If I were his hitting coach I would clip together every IFFB to see what his issue is. Does he need to lay off some inside pitches? Adjust himself in the batters box? Shorten up the swing? I really don't know what the fix is if there is one. Guys with high IFFB rates can still be great hitters, but mainly they need to be power guys to be stars. Their BABIPs live in the mid to upper .200s. Corbin Carroll went from 11.7% in 2023 to 20.2% in 2024 and his BABIP cratered. 

If he can get the rate down to the bad range (15-16%) you are looking at a really solid hitter. I'll be really interested to follow this over the year

 

Great post.  I’m no expert, but wouldn’t struggles to hit velocity up in the zone potentially explain the high IFFB rate?  And if so, could a lingering back issue be a partial culprit?  That’d at least give us some reason to hope for a turnaround.