Can the this team be competitive in 2026?

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, I was actually pretty optimistic about cannon and still think be may be able to move to the pen because his sinker had been effective until last year. It took a huge step back last year though, and it's possible the league just figured it out.

Skubal was very mediocre when he first came up. Before the injury he only threw 94 mph. When he came back he was throwing 96 mph. That 2 mph took a medicore fastball and made it a good one.

Thanks. I didn’t realize Skubal had that velocity increase. 

You didn’t really answer the questions from my first paragraph, so I turned to Chat. It sounds like the run value stats are measuring results more than pure stuff, similar to ERA. Does that sound right? You could locate a perfect fastball with the bases loaded, but if the hitter breaks his bat and bloops one in for a couple RBI, it’s hurting your fastball run value (just like it’s hurting your ERA). 

Now, usually the best pitchers have the best ERA, so I’m guessing the best pitchers also have the best pitching run value stats. But it sounds like stats like FIP and xERA would be better predictors of future success. Would you agree with that?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

34 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Thanks. I didn’t realize Skubal had that velocity increase. 

You didn’t really answer the questions from my first paragraph, so I turned to Chat. It sounds like the run value stats are measuring results more than pure stuff, similar to ERA. Does that sound right? You could locate a perfect fastball with the bases loaded, but if the hitter breaks his bat and bloops one in for a couple RBI, it’s hurting your fastball run value (just like it’s hurting your ERA). 

Now, usually the best pitchers have the best ERA, so I’m guessing the best pitchers also have the best pitching run value stats. But it sounds like stats like FIP and xERA would be better predictors of future success. Would you agree with that?

Run values added are going to be derived from your overall value which is heavily tied to results. Depending on the system you use, the correlation is high enough that you won't see a lot of positives with negative outcomes, but you can see individual pitch values where a pitcher is succeeding despite failure. Burke really doesn't have anything to hang his hat on. 

I'll also agree that FIP is a better predictor of future production; xERA isn't much better than actual ERA. His FIP being as bad as it was is the #1 indicator of his flaws, but I figured we could get more granular. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Lukakke Appling]

To my eye, for whatever that’s worth, his stuff is pretty good overall. I just get the impression from watching hitters that it’s easy to pick up and plays down. I do think, however, he could be a weapon out of the bullpen if starting doesn’t work out. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

19 minutes ago, Lukakke Appling said:

To my eye, for whatever that’s worth, his stuff is pretty good overall. I just get the impression from watching hitters that it’s easy to pick up and plays down. I do think, however, he could be a weapon out of the bullpen if starting doesn’t work out. 

Not a lot of fastball/curveball guys out of the pen anymore in baseball, and his curveball is his best pitch. That's the main reason I don't see the bullpen utility for Burke, because curveballs are challenging to be consistent with/find in short stints. 

Of course, his stuff could always get better disrupting everything we know about him. It's happened before, but it's not something I would expect or predict.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

17 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Interesting.  So a former consensus top 70 prospect stinks because of why?  Did you actually watch Kay pitch in the NPB?  And I guess Burke performing fairly well down the stretch is meaningless for reasons unknown.

I'll come back to this to.

Thorpe was a very polarizing prospect. He's basically the second coming of Kyle Hendricks, but being Kyle Hendricks means you have to be perfect. Hendricks basically was that for 6 years, but anytime Hendricks hasn't been perfect he's been a bum. Additionally, Hendricks never really missed bats like Thorpe did in the minors, so he was always pitching to contact. With Thorpe, I think he's going to have a steep learning curve pitching to more contact.

The funny thing about command and walks is that while the higher in level you go the more predictive of your MLB production, those on the extreme ends of the curve (BB rate) have less correlation. This is driven mainly by guys who attack the zone until they can't anymore (MLB). Thorpe could be one of those guys. Or maybe he adds 2 MPH post-surgery like Skubal, his fastball goes to avg and he dominates the league with his secondaries.

Maybe he was hurt throughout all his MLB time and that's something to hang onto. With Thorpe though, the margin for error is so small and he's been everything but pinpoint when up-leveled.

With Kay, no I didn't watch his NPB starts. Last time he was in the big leagues, he was bad and his big change was going from 4 seamers up in the zone to throwing a sinker. MLB hitters today are crushing the ball down and being beat up in the zone with four seamers so I'm skeptical of that transformation taking as much hold in the US.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The problem is you're claiming ebbs and flows in performance are driven by development and not standard performance distributions. 

In his final 10 appearances, he faced Cleveland twice, the Royals once, the angels once, the Nats once, and Baltimore. That's 5 of the bottom 8 offenses in MLB last year. 

Come on man.  He literally faced Cleveland, Kansas City, & the Angels in his first 10 starts as well plus the Marlins who were actually a bottom 10 offense per wRC+ (unlike Baltimore as you cited).  The difference in team quality between those two samples is minimal.  Regardless, you are now suggesting that his K rate doubling in his last 10 starts vs. his first 10 starts is because he faced the Guardians one extra time.  You know as well as me that’s absolutely ridiculous and you would normally call out any other poster for suggesting it.

Again, the original argument here was whether Burke stinks or not.  You said you watched his early starts and that he did not get better as the season progressed.  That is an objectively false statement whether you believe his last 18 starts to be signs of improvement or just performance variance.  And then instead of posting advanced metrics during those two (or three) different time periods to suggest the underlying peripherals were all the same to help the performance variance angle (which I’m confident wouldn’t be the case), you cite a bunch of full season metrics and pretend that young players can’t / don’t get better with experience.  Which again, is another absurd hypothesis and just simply lazy analysis.  No competent GM would evaluate a young player (rookie, minor leaguer, etc.) solely on full year results and most certainly would look for signs of improvement & development.

Ultimately, I do believe he’s a much better SP than the guy you saw in his first 10 starts and closer to the guy who put up a 4.25 FIP over his last 18 starters.  If I filter on SPs who pitched 100+ innings last year, that FIP would rank 70th of 119 SPs.  Go down to 80+ innings pitched and he would be 78th out of 138 SPs.  Either way, that production is approximately mid #3 starter level.  Whether he can maintain that into next year or regresses some remains to be seen, but I don’t think a rookie SP who performed at that level for his final 18 starts “stinks” in any rationale way.

[Lukakke Appling]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not a lot of fastball/curveball guys out of the pen anymore in baseball, and his curveball is his best pitch. That's the main reason I don't see the bullpen utility for Burke, because curveballs are challenging to be consistent with/find in short stints. 

Of course, his stuff could always get better disrupting everything we know about him. It's happened before, but it's not something I would expect or predict.

Generally speaking, guys who can spin a curve can spin a slider. You’re right about the consistency of the curve being difficult, which is why guys like Gio and Cease adopted the slider as a primary secondary. I think if he busts as a starter you focus on the fastball/slider combo and forget the other stuff. 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'll come back to this to.

Thorpe was a very polarizing prospect. He's basically the second coming of Kyle Hendricks, but being Kyle Hendricks means you have to be perfect. Hendricks basically was that for 6 years, but anytime Hendricks hasn't been perfect he's been a bum. Additionally, Hendricks never really missed bats like Thorpe did in the minors, so he was always pitching to contact. With Thorpe, I think he's going to have a steep learning curve pitching to more contact.

The funny thing about command and walks is that while the higher in level you go the more predictive of your MLB production, those on the extreme ends of the curve (BB rate) have less correlation. This is driven mainly by guys who attack the zone until they can't anymore (MLB). Thorpe could be one of those guys. Or maybe he adds 2 MPH post-surgery like Skubal, his fastball goes to avg and he dominates the league with his secondaries.

Maybe he was hurt throughout all his MLB time and that's something to hang onto. With Thorpe though, the margin for error is so small and he's been everything but pinpoint when up-leveled.

With Kay, no I didn't watch his NPB starts. Last time he was in the big leagues, he was bad and his big change was going from 4 seamers up in the zone to throwing a sinker. MLB hitters today are crushing the ball down and being beat up in the zone with four seamers so I'm skeptical of that transformation taking as much hold in the US.

The point on Thorpe is we don’t know what he is.  To say he “stinks” completely ignores his minor league track record & prospect pedigree and over-indexes on his first eight major league starts.  He’s obviously got a unique profile with less margin of error when it comes to command, but I’m giving him a much bigger runway than that first cup of coffee with is before making such declarations.  He may end up busting, but I liked what I saw from his change up when he was with the Sox and his minor league numbers show a dude with impeccable command and an ability to generate weak contact.  I remain cautiously optimistic for now.

[JTB]

20 hours ago, T R U said:

No, this team will not be competitive in 2026. It would take a historical event for this team to be competitive in the true sense of the term. 

What is the average win total for those teams the following season?

Through the end of the 2025 season, teams posted an average win total of 68 the year after losing 100 games.

How many teams finished the season after they lost 100 or more games with a record above .500?

Of the 91 teams with 100 or more losses from 1961-2023, 13 finished the next season above .500:

Honestly, 13 of 91 100 loss teams being above .500 the following season is higher than I would have guessed.  That’s something under 15%.  I would have guessed closer to 5%.  What that means for the 2026 White Sox, I have no idea.  

[almagest]

14 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

League average? Of 87 starters who threw 130+ innings last year, Burke ranked 81st.

I was looking at his 99 ERA+, but yes I don't disagree. He wasn't very good and doesn't have much of a ceiling. He'll probably end up in the bullpen as a good outcome.

Edited 4 hours ago by almagest

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The point on Thorpe is we don’t know what he is.  To say he “stinks” completely ignores his minor league track record & prospect pedigree and over-indexes on his first eight major league starts.  He’s obviously got a unique profile with less margin of error when it comes to command, but I’m giving him a much bigger runway than that first cup of coffee with is before making such declarations.  He may end up busting, but I liked what I saw from his change up when he was with the Sox and his minor league numbers show a dude with impeccable command and an ability to generate weak contact.  I remain cautiously optimistic for now.

His change up wasn't the problem.  It was fastball location which sets up them swinging at the change.  No one swings at the change if they know it is coming.

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

His change up wasn't the problem.  It was fastball location which sets up them swinging at the change.  No one swings at the change if they know it is coming.

And don’t they say command is last thing to return after TJS?  

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

His change up wasn't the problem.  It was fastball location which sets up them swinging at the change.  No one swings at the change if they know it is coming.

Which is why I said this: “and his minor league numbers show a dude with impeccable command”

[steveno89]

19 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

You need a bullpen for that to happen.

The lack of a competant bullpen may be the largest reason why the club will not have a chance at the divison in 2026 

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, almagest said:

I was looking at his 99 ERA+, but yes I don't disagree. He wasn't very good and doesn't have much of a ceiling. He'll probably end up in the bullpen as a good outcome.

From July 12th to the end of the season, here were the leaders in K/9 with 40+ IPs pitched.  Again, this reflects Burke’s final 10 starts as a rookie:

1. Sean Burke = 12.33
2. Shohei Ohtani = 12.29
3. Jacob Misiorowski = 12.05
4. Dylan Cease = 11.97
5. Blake Snell = 11.69
6. Freddy Peralta = 11.68
7. Brandon Woodruff = 11.51
8. Paul Skenes = 11.48
9. Logan Gilbert = 11.23
10. Sean Manaea = 11.13

To say a rookie who was able to post the highest K/9 in baseball over the final third of the season “doesn’t have much of a ceiling” is absolutely wild to me.  The other nine pitchers in this group are some of the best strikeout pitchers in the game…the only guy who even possibility stands out as an outlier is Manaea who completely abandoned his sinker last year and ramped up the usage of his sweeper.

@Look at Ray Ray Run - What is your theory on the above figures?  How did he go from a terrible K rate to start the season to best in baseball by its end?  Obviously it can’t because he got better or developed as the season progressed, that is not possible for rookies or young players, so is it just random performance variance and/or the benefit of getting to face the Guardians one extra time?

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From July 12th to the end of the season, here were the leaders in K/9 with 40+ IPs pitched.  Again, this reflects Burke’s final 10 starts as a rookie:

1. Sean Burke = 12.33
2. Shohei Ohtani = 12.29
3. Jacob Misiorowski = 12.05
4. Dylan Cease = 11.97
5. Blake Snell = 11.69
6. Freddy Peralta = 11.68
7. Brandon Woodruff = 11.51
8. Paul Skenes = 11.48
9. Logan Gilbert = 11.23
10. Sean Manaea = 11.13

To say a rookie who was able to post the highest K/9 in baseball over the final third of the season “doesn’t have much of a ceiling” is absolutely wild to me.  The other nine pitchers in this group are some of the best strikeout pitchers in the game…the only guy who even possibility stands out as an outlier is Manaea who completely abandoned his sinker last year and ramped up the usage of his sweeper.

@Look at Ray Ray Run - What is your theory on the above figures?  How did he go from a terrible K rate to start the season to best in baseball by its end?  Obviously it can’t because he got better or developed as the season progressed, that is not possible for rookies or young players, so is it just random performance variance and/or the benefit of getting to face the Guardians one extra time?

If this is the same thing you posted yesterday, his walk rate doubled, and his expected ERA was almost identical to his previous 8 where his K rate was about 50% less, meaning his wildness was probably giving away what he gained in Ks.

 

[almagest]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From July 12th to the end of the season, here were the leaders in K/9 with 40+ IPs pitched.  Again, this reflects Burke’s final 10 starts as a rookie:

1. Sean Burke = 12.33
2. Shohei Ohtani = 12.29
3. Jacob Misiorowski = 12.05
4. Dylan Cease = 11.97
5. Blake Snell = 11.69
6. Freddy Peralta = 11.68
7. Brandon Woodruff = 11.51
8. Paul Skenes = 11.48
9. Logan Gilbert = 11.23
10. Sean Manaea = 11.13

To say a rookie who was able to post the highest K/9 in baseball over the final third of the season “doesn’t have much of a ceiling” is absolutely wild to me.  The other nine pitchers in this group are some of the best strikeout pitchers in the game…the only guy who even possibility stands out as an outlier is Manaea who completely abandoned his sinker last year and ramped up the usage of his sweeper.

@Look at Ray Ray Run - What is your theory on the above figures?  How did he go from a terrible K rate to start the season to best in baseball by its end?  Obviously it can’t because he got better or developed as the season progressed, that is not possible for rookies or young players, so is it just random performance variance and/or the benefit of getting to face the Guardians one extra time?

I think the K rate improvement is great, but it's just one piece. SSK25 added context on his control issues keeping his xERA about the same and control was the reason I said bullpen for Burke. Strikeouts + elite extension + high walks + an xERA of 5 = probably a reliever. Does he have a chance to keep that K rate, lower the walk rate, and become a solid starter? Probably. I sure hope you're right. Right now it doesn't look like it's going to happen though.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Come on man.  He literally faced Cleveland, Kansas City, & the Angels in his first 10 starts as well plus the Marlins who were actually a bottom 10 offense per wRC+ (unlike Baltimore as you cited).  The difference in team quality between those two samples is minimal.  Regardless, you are now suggesting that his K rate doubling in his last 10 starts vs. his first 10 starts is because he faced the Guardians one extra time.  You know as well as me that’s absolutely ridiculous and you would normally call out any other poster for suggesting it.

Again, the original argument here was whether Burke stinks or not.  You said you watched his early starts and that he did not get better as the season progressed.  That is an objectively false statement whether you believe his last 18 starts to be signs of improvement or just performance variance.  And then instead of posting advanced metrics during those two (or three) different time periods to suggest the underlying peripherals were all the same to help the performance variance angle (which I’m confident wouldn’t be the case), you cite a bunch of full season metrics and pretend that young players can’t / don’t get better with experience.  Which again, is another absurd hypothesis and just simply lazy analysis.  No competent GM would evaluate a young player (rookie, minor leaguer, etc.) solely on full year results and most certainly would look for signs of improvement & development.

Ultimately, I do believe he’s a much better SP than the guy you saw in his first 10 starts and closer to the guy who put up a 4.25 FIP over his last 18 starters.  If I filter on SPs who pitched 100+ innings last year, that FIP would rank 70th of 119 SPs.  Go down to 80+ innings pitched and he would be 78th out of 138 SPs.  Either way, that production is approximately mid #3 starter level.  Whether he can maintain that into next year or regresses some remains to be seen, but I don’t think a rookie SP who performed at that level for his final 18 starts “stinks” in any rationale way.

I follow all arms throughout the league throughout the year. Watching starts doesn't afford me much more insight than following the way I do. I do not have Burke projected to be a viable MLB starter. I get you're in optimistic mode and amped up but it doesn't change that. 

You like Burke. I did at one point too. Now I've gathered more data on him and he's much less intriguing and is a likely nothing burger.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

Honestly, 13 of 91 100 loss teams being above .500 the following season is higher than I would have guessed.  That’s something under 15%.  I would have guessed closer to 5%.  What that means for the 2026 White Sox, I have no idea.  

Its actually a little lower than 15% since this only went through 2023 so you then include

2023 100 Loss Teams: White Sox, Royals, A's, Rockies

2024 100 Loss Teams: White Sox, Marlins, Rockies

2025 100 Loss Teams: White Sox, Rockies

Out of those 9 instances, only the Royals (Over .500 in 2024) accomplished it and that was with going 12-1 against the hapless White Sox. So its probably anywhere from 10-15% chance it happens, which obviously is not great.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

24 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

From July 12th to the end of the season, here were the leaders in K/9 with 40+ IPs pitched.  Again, this reflects Burke’s final 10 starts as a rookie:

1. Sean Burke = 12.33
2. Shohei Ohtani = 12.29
3. Jacob Misiorowski = 12.05
4. Dylan Cease = 11.97
5. Blake Snell = 11.69
6. Freddy Peralta = 11.68
7. Brandon Woodruff = 11.51
8. Paul Skenes = 11.48
9. Logan Gilbert = 11.23
10. Sean Manaea = 11.13

To say a rookie who was able to post the highest K/9 in baseball over the final third of the season “doesn’t have much of a ceiling” is absolutely wild to me.  The other nine pitchers in this group are some of the best strikeout pitchers in the game…the only guy who even possibility stands out as an outlier is Manaea who completely abandoned his sinker last year and ramped up the usage of his sweeper.

@Look at Ray Ray Run - What is your theory on the above figures?  How did he go from a terrible K rate to start the season to best in baseball by its end?  Obviously it can’t because he got better or developed as the season progressed, that is not possible for rookies or young players, so is it just random performance variance and/or the benefit of getting to face the Guardians one extra time?

During the best stretch of his year, he had 1 plus pitch and 4 negative pitches. You're getting way too caught up in a k/9 rate that was heavily influenced by 10k's vs a terrible Nats offense down the stretch where his fastball played way up (throwing 96.5!). 

Small samples are almost never worth looking at as a baseline for future performance. 

The other guys on your list are ACTUAL starters too. Who went through lineups multiple times and pitched into the 5th inning.

Edited 3 hours ago by Look at Ray Ray Run

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, almagest said:

I think the K rate improvement is great, but it's just one piece. SSK25 added context on his control issues keeping his xERA about the same and control was the reason I said bullpen for Burke. Strikeouts + elite extension + high walks + an xERA of 5 = probably a reliever. Does he have a chance to keep that K rate, lower the walk rate, and become a solid starter? Probably. I sure hope you're right. Right now it doesn't look like it's going to happen though.

And his HR/9 rate didn't really change, so when he was in the zone, he was still getting hit for as hard of contact.  Could he figure it out?  Sure, he's got some raw stuff, but figuring out the balance here is what keeps a lot of guys from becoming solid major league starters.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Lukakke Appling said:

Generally speaking, guys who can spin a curve can spin a slider. You’re right about the consistency of the curve being difficult, which is why guys like Gio and Cease adopted the slider as a primary secondary. I think if he busts as a starter you focus on the fastball/slider combo and forget the other stuff. 

Don't want to get too much into the weeds on this, but his curve is good because of his angle of attack. There's a reason a lot of guys don't have good curves and good sliders, and it's because the angle you want to come through with the arm that creates the action is different for both pitches. Not just grip oriented.

Burke would have to change his angle of attack, which isn't a guarantee to produce a + slider and isn't guaranteed for any pitcher. It would definitely impact the quality of his curve ball though.

Edited 3 hours ago by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If this is the same thing you posted yesterday, his walk rate doubled, and his expected ERA was almost identical to his previous 8 where his K rate was about 50% less, meaning his wildness was probably giving away what he gained in Ks.

 

Yes, which is why his FIP during that stretch was that of a #3 caliber SP and not that of an ace.  That being said, I have never argued he performed like a TOR starter or will ever become one.  My arguments have been consistent no matter how many times people try to “gotcha” me or move the goalposts:

1. He doesn’t “stink”
2. He pitched better as the season progressed
3. He has a much higher ceiling than people are letting on as evident by his elite K rate in final 10 starts

Which of those three points do you disagree with?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The point on Thorpe is we don’t know what he is.  To say he “stinks” completely ignores his minor league track record & prospect pedigree and over-indexes on his first eight major league starts.  He’s obviously got a unique profile with less margin of error when it comes to command, but I’m giving him a much bigger runway than that first cup of coffee with is before making such declarations.  He may end up busting, but I liked what I saw from his change up when he was with the Sox and his minor league numbers show a dude with impeccable command and an ability to generate weak contact.  I remain cautiously optimistic for now.

His minor league numbers show impeccable control (meaning he threw a ton of strikes, and his stuff was good enough at that level to keep people off balance in the zone), but command doesn't truly get tested until you start getting smacked around in the zone. So far, his command in the big leagues has been bad. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yes, which is why his FIP during that stretch was that of a #3 caliber SP and not that of an ace.  That being said, I have never argued he performed like a TOR starter or will ever become one.  My arguments have been consistent no matter how many times people try to “gotcha” me or move the goalposts:

1. He doesn’t “stink”
2. He pitched better as the season progressed
3. He has a much higher ceiling than people are letting on as evident by his elite K rate in final 10 starts

Which of those three points do you disagree with?

Relative to other pitchers with his similar usage, he was the 81st ranked arm of 87. He stunk. Arguing otherwise is truly baffling. No one is saying he stinks relative to me and you.

His swinging strike rate went from 10.5% to 11.8% the final few appearances. While an improvement, it was all obtained in the final start of the year vs the Nats (again) where he ran a 21.3% swinging strike percentage. If you removed that OUTLIER (which is what it is), his swinging strike percentage from July 12th on was..... 10.8%. Nothing about his stuff played up but for one appearance. If your swstrk% doesn't change, your k/9 change is just sequencing noise mostly.

Edited 3 hours ago by Look at Ray Ray Run