Better Future Core: Sox or Cubs?

[Balta1701]

Nonsense. When Wilkins got hot, there was no place to put him. Sox could not get rid of Dunn, other than a DFA. That's why Wilkins wasn't promoted. If Dunn had been hurt, Willkins would likely have been brought up If he is not traded, he'll get a shot at making the team next year. Clearly, he should be brought up next month.

I still can't believe that if the Sox offered to pay all but $1 million of Dunn's deal over the last 2 months that there wouldn't be a team in the AL who would take that, giving the Sox a chance to bring Wilkins up and improving the DH spot of some contender. It seems ludicrous to me.

[oldsox]

Micah Johnson and Matt Davidson should be in the picture, as well.

Davidson? Why? What do you think the Sox have planned for him for next year?

[southsider2k5]

Nonsense. When Wilkins got hot, there was no place to put him. Sox could not get rid of Dunn, other than a DFA. That's why Wilkins wasn't promoted. If Dunn had been hurt, Willkins would likely have been brought up If he is not traded, he'll get a shot at making the team next year. Clearly, he should be brought up next month.

 

I doubt it. They would have brought up someone who plays more than 1B. Depending on when it would have happened, someone like Danks, Sanchez, or Semien.

[Balta1701]

Davidson? Why? What do you think the Sox have planned for him for next year?

He gets another year at AAA to see if he can earn his way to the bigs, clearly. Burns an option on him I believe.

[ron883]

What would the Sox have to get in return from the Cubs to feel good about an Abreu trade? How about Chris Sale? Or even Jose Quintana? The Cubs could probably piece together the bullets for one (maybe two, if Quintana is the second), of those guys.

 

I'm not even counting Eaton, Avi, Conor, Rodon, Tim Anderson or Marcus Semien yet.

Rizzo and a prospect. That's one of those trades that neither team would do, though. Cubs wouldn't be willing to give up Rizzo and a good prospect.

[fathom]

The ceiling of the Cubs main prospects (Baez, Russell, Bryant, Soler) is significantly higher than anyone in the Sox organization outside of Abreu. The Sox future pitching seems to be much stronger than the Cubs, while the Cubs future hitting is significantly better than the White Sox. The key will be the team that is able to use their money to fill their weakness without giving out more bad contracts (ie: Dunn and Edwin Jackson).

[caulfield12]

The ceiling of the Cubs main prospects (Baez, Russell, Bryant, Soler) is significantly higher than anyone in the Sox organization outside of Abreu. The Sox future pitching seems to be much stronger than the Cubs, while the Cubs future hitting is significantly better than the White Sox. The key will be the team that is able to use their money to fill their weakness without giving out more bad contracts (ie: Dunn and Edwin Jackson).

 

Don't forget Danks. Well, perhaps it's more exact to say it BECAME or evolved into a bad contract, debate the original intention all you want.

 

I know one thing. The Cubs in a million years aren't going to trade you Arrieta AND Russell/Bryant/Soler and probably Baez (whose stock is clearly down at the moment) for Jose Quintana.

 

They might offer Alcantara, Edwards/P.Johnson and Arrieta for him, though. That at least makes for an interesting discussion, although I don't see the Cubs' making that offer until/unless they shore up other parts of their rotation. I don't think they can 100% count on Wada not getting figured out, Turner's a huge question mark at best and Doubront as well.

Edited August 29, 2014 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

The ceiling of the Cubs main prospects (Baez, Russell, Bryant, Soler) is significantly higher than anyone in the Sox organization outside of Abreu. The Sox future pitching seems to be much stronger than the Cubs, while the Cubs future hitting is significantly better than the White Sox. The key will be the team that is able to use their money to fill their weakness without giving out more bad contracts (ie: Dunn and Edwin Jackson).

 

Sale and Rodon don't have high ceilings? You could have fooled me.

[SoxAce]

Sale and Rodon don't have high ceilings? You could have fooled me.

I'm assuming he means as far as hitters.

[caulfield12]

Especially since Sale doesn't have much more ceiling left to get to...passing Kershaw, Felix and maybe Scherzer?

[LittleHurt05]

Especially since Sale doesn't have much more ceiling left to get to...passing Kershaw, Felix and maybe Scherzer?

 

So his ceiling is the 3rd best pitcher in all of baseball? I guess that's decent.

[knightni]

Davidson? Why? What do you think the Sox have planned for him for next year?

He's 30 hits behind from last year. He has 20 HRs and is still producing despite his BA drop.

[Quin]

So his ceiling is the 3rd best pitcher in all of baseball? I guess that's decent.

 

But Baez is Dunn without walks, therefore better.

[oldsox]

I still can't believe that if the Sox offered to pay all but $1 million of Dunn's deal over the last 2 months that there wouldn't be a team in the AL who would take that, giving the Sox a chance to bring Wilkins up and improving the DH spot of some contender. It seems ludicrous to me.

I can easily believe that no team would pick up Dunn under those conditions. No other team wants him, especially a contender. Not ludicrous, at all. You and your two buddies will take your infatuation with Dunn to the grave. Now that is ludicrous.

[witesoxfan]

Stone and Harrelson talk about "run producers" in the middle of the line-up all the time.

 

I was listening to Stone on Hit & Run show a couple of weeks ago saying over and over again Conor isn't a run producer. If Conor's outproducing Adam, has a better OPS and yet isn't a run producer, that doesn't say much for Dunn's season.

 

Or you can use another statistic like Runs Created or Runs Created/27. Who would rank 2nd and 3rd after Abreu in that category? I'm going to guess Gillaspie again, maybe Alexei....Dunn could be 3rd.

 

I would argue Alexei's been better at producing runs this year for the White Sox than Adam. And Dunn can't run once he gets on base, so he has to drive them in or be driven in. Part of that's obviously a function of having good hitters behind you, and Viciedo and Flowers and Beckham all had long stretches where they struggled this year.

 

If you're being paid $15 or 16 million and your ONLY job is to hit, and we're arguing whether a SS or Conor Gillaspie is outproducing you offensively (and that's not even taking into consideration WAR or Alexei's defensive contributions), that's not a good argument that will go in your favor.

 

Essentially Dunn isn't even an effective hitter against LHP, so you're getting paid $20-22 million or so to hit, because there has to be another player (in this case Konerko and other bench players) to cover up for your deficiencies.

 

I've been arguing this whole time and I still don't understand what exactly a "run producer" is. I mean, in 2004, Barry Bonds hit .362/.609/.812/1.422 with 45 homers but he only drove in 101 runs. He also scored 84 runs when he wasn't trotting slowly around the bases. But did he produce those runs or did someone else?

 

So what is a run producer? I hate using the phrase because it can mean anything. I like using "good hitter" much more.

[LDF]

He's 30 hits behind from last year. He has 20 HRs and is still producing despite his BA drop.

 

could he be the next power bat, with low avg that plays the DH?

[LDF]

I've been arguing this whole time and I still don't understand what exactly a "run producer" is. I mean, in 2004, Barry Bonds hit .362/.609/.812/1.422 with 45 homers but he only drove in 101 runs. He also scored 84 runs when he wasn't trotting slowly around the bases. But did he produce those runs or did someone else?

 

So what is a run producer? I hate using the phrase because it can mean anything. I like using "good hitter" much more.

 

I too have always had a problem with that term. good example of Bonds.

[LDF]

Stone and Harrelson talk about "run producers" in the middle of the line-up all the time.

 

I was listening to Stone on Hit & Run show a couple of weeks ago saying over and over again Conor isn't a run producer. If Conor's outproducing Adam, has a better OPS and yet isn't a run producer, that doesn't say much for Dunn's season.

 

Or you can use another statistic like Runs Created or Runs Created/27. Who would rank 2nd and 3rd after Abreu in that category? I'm going to guess Gillaspie again, maybe Alexei....Dunn could be 3rd.

 

I would argue Alexei's been better at producing runs this year for the White Sox than Adam. And Dunn can't run once he gets on base, so he has to drive them in or be driven in. Part of that's obviously a function of having good hitters behind you, and Viciedo and Flowers and Beckham all had long stretches where they struggled this year.

 

If you're being paid $15 or 16 million and your ONLY job is to hit, and we're arguing whether a SS or Conor Gillaspie is outproducing you offensively (and that's not even taking into consideration WAR or Alexei's defensive contributions), that's not a good argument that will go in your favor.

 

I still say that Conor can be your #2 hitter. Move Alexei down in the lineup but in front of Avi.

[Balta1701]

I still say that Conor can be your #2 hitter. Move Alexei down in the lineup but in front of Avi.

Conor could well profile as a quality #2 hitter but only if we have a right handed leadoff hitter. And before you tell me that it's ok to have 2 lefties hitting together, whether or not that's the case our manager does not believe it and will move Gillaspie out of that spot to avoid it.

[LDF]

Conor could well profile as a quality #2 hitter but only if we have a right handed leadoff hitter. And before you tell me that it's ok to have 2 lefties hitting together, whether or not that's the case our manager does not believe it and will move Gillaspie out of that spot to avoid it.

 

a very good point !!!

[thxfrthmmrs]

I've been arguing this whole time and I still don't understand what exactly a "run producer" is. I mean, in 2004, Barry Bonds hit .362/.609/.812/1.422 with 45 homers but he only drove in 101 runs. He also scored 84 runs when he wasn't trotting slowly around the bases. But did he produce those runs or did someone else?

 

So what is a run producer? I hate using the phrase because it can mean anything. I like using "good hitter" much more.

 

Sounds like you want to measure run production based on wRC+ instead of RBI's

 

Dunn wRC+: 114 - Good for 49 out of 152 total qualified player in the league. Puts him on even ground with Denard Span and Coco Crisp

Gillaspie wRC+: 122

Sandoval WRC+: 116

 

And 2002 Bonds wRC+: 244

 

In summary, Dunn's run creation in 2014 is above league average compared to all qualified hitters, but it's considerably low for a middle of the order bat.

[cabiness42]

Conor could well profile as a quality #2 hitter but only if we have a right handed leadoff hitter. And before you tell me that it's ok to have 2 lefties hitting together, whether or not that's the case our manager does not believe it and will move Gillaspie out of that spot to avoid it.

 

Gillaspie has the 3rd best OPB and 2nd best SLG on the team. There is no excuse for him batting lower than 4th, at least not against a righty starter. I don't care if that means batting Abreu 4th, batting Gillaspie 4th, or batting two lefties consecutively, but there has to be some way to bat him up higher in the order.

 

Oh, and Alexei should never bat 2nd. His slash line screams out #6 hitter.

[southsider2k5]

I'm assuming he means as far as hitters.

 

I would say that Sale and Rodon both have as high of ceilings as any of the Cubs hitters. The one big factor being that Chris Sale is currently at his ceiling and is a baseball superstar.

[witesoxfan]

Sounds like you want to measure run production based on wRC+ instead of RBI's

 

Dunn wRC+: 114 - Good for 49 out of 152 total qualified player in the league. Puts him on even ground with Denard Span and Coco Crisp

Gillaspie wRC+: 122

Sandoval WRC+: 116

 

And 2002 Bonds wRC+: 244

 

In summary, Dunn's run creation in 2014 is above league average compared to all qualified hitters, but it's considerably low for a middle of the order bat.

 

This is how I would describe a "run producer" as well. I still prefer the term "good hitter."

 

Also, against RHP - which is all I've ever advocated using him against - his wRC+ is 123. You prefer higher, but that'd be right around 51st in the majors. It'd be nice to have someone better hitting cleanup, or to add another big bat, but if he's hitting 5th or 6th for you against righties, you can still have a pretty good lineup.

[Balta1701]

Gillaspie has the 3rd best OPB and 2nd best SLG on the team. There is no excuse for him batting lower than 4th, at least not against a righty starter. I don't care if that means batting Abreu 4th, batting Gillaspie 4th, or batting two lefties consecutively, but there has to be some way to bat him up higher in the order.

 

Oh, and Alexei should never bat 2nd. His slash line screams out #6 hitter.

Unless you're willing to bat Gillaspie 3rd, you have to convince Robin it's ok to have back to back lefties. Good luck.