Upton or Cespedes

[JRL]

I started watching some Upton highlights from last year and something jumped off the screen to me...he hit a ton of cheap homers. I looked up the stats and he was near the top of the list for lucky/cheap homers. This was one of the warning signs that people had regarding LaRoche and Abreu after 2014. Upton's average home run distance was 10 feet less in 2015 than 2014. He's a good player, but his power is his main tool and if that starts to fade, you're looking at a bad contract possibly.

 

I wouldn't worry at all. Average fly ball distances often vary greatly, by amounts of 10 feet or more for a lot of players from year to year. This variance is much more often than not due to random extraneous factors or chance, rather than a decrease in skill. Usually, the following season the players rebound to their career norms. I would assume that to be especially true for players who, like Upton, are smack in the middle of their prime.

 

http://post.leaguesafe.com/sabermagic-vari...-ball-distance/

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

You make a valid point about the trend, and I do worry about the A. L. factor. I'd also love Cespedes. Nevertheless, Upton has been pretty consistent, in his career, and he is young enough that we shouldn't expect age to be a factor, for a while.

 

Also looking at the HR chart for 2015 (which I love, by the way ,especially that you can overlay US Cellular Field onto the distances of the HR) Cespedes uses the whole field for his bombs whereas Upton is more of a pull hitter. Not sure what his hit chart looks like but a pull hitter would be more vulnerable to shifts.

 

Cespedes avg. true HR distance 408 feet. Just beastly.

 

I always thought Giancarlo Stanton had the longest true distance for his HR's but Joc Pederson beats him 421.7 to 417.6 ft. Surprisingly Eric Hosmer and Ian Desmond are right up there in the Golden Sledgehammer department. Joey Gallo only hit 6 HR's but they were massive averaging 430 ft !!

[chw42]

I'd rather give the money to Upton. More likely to walk and 2 years younger. Even in his poor years, he posted around a 110 wRC+. I think he's a much safer pick. He hit 15 homers in Petco last year and a move to the Cell should put him at around 30-35 homes overall.

[JRL]

I think it's a mistake to look at career stats . After all the guy isn't 22, 23, 24 any more. . I think it's best to look for trends . Last year he was bad vs. left handers and terribly streaky. Just look at his bating averages by month. June and July he was terrible. His OBP has gone down for 4 straight years. All that being said I wouldn't be at all upset if the Sox got him because he does have a good track record . I just like Cespedes and his AL pedigree more.

 

He's streaky month to month (though that accurately describes many hitters, pretty much all but the very elite), but very consistent year to year. The OBP has declined the last 2 years, but so has the overall offensive environment in baseball as compared to earlier in Upton's career. His OPS+ in each of the last 2 years though have been very much consistent with his single season OPS+s throughout his career. In fact, 2014 was his second best year in that category, so I wouldn't worry too much.

 

The lefty splits are very weird, and its really hard to think of an explanation for it other than being an anomaly. He's 28 years old, right handed and had actually hit lefties slightly better throughout his career prior to last season.

 

I do not like Cespedes at all. Very inconsistent year to year. Very good rookie year, great contract year (albeit spurred by an unsustainable almost historical hot streak that's totally above and beyond his career numbers), and lots of meh in the 2 seasons in between. Gimme Gordon or Upton

[caulfield12]

Cespedes is a much more dynamic and exciting player.

 

He's a natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing.

 

He can also play any of the OF positions, but is much stronger in RF and LF. Having Cespedes and Eaton together improves your defense quite a bit...and psychologically, knowing you have a competent fielder on your left side allows you to cheat a bit more to the other side and protect Cabrera in the gap. Upton is an average fielder, at best. All of his value comes from hitting and speed/athleticism, which is on the verge of declining in the next couple of years with all of the wear and tear on his body from being healthy for such a long stretch.

 

Yoenis is proven in the AL and NL. He basically was the borderline NL MVP last year, certainly for the last two months. He performed well in both the AL West and AL Central. Upton hasn't shown that...doesn't mean he's not capable, but it's not a given at this point either, not with all the recent issues we've had in that area (LaRoche, Dunn, Samardzija, etc.)

 

With his age and the current White Sox "open window" of 2016 and 2017, a contract for four years for Cespedes with higher average value (or maybe an opt-out again after 2017) makes a lot more financial sense than possibly being "stuck" with Upton for six years.

 

Upton hasn't hit very well the last three years against the AL in inter-league play, only a .207 average in over 200 at-bats.

 

 

[OmarComing25]

He's streaky month to month (though that accurately describes many hitters, pretty much all but the very elite), but very consistent year to year. The OBP has declined the last 2 years, but so has the overall offensive environment in baseball as compared to earlier in Upton's career. His OPS+ in each of the last 2 years though have been very much consistent with his single season OPS+s throughout his career. In fact, 2014 was his second best year in that category, so I wouldn't worry too much.

 

The lefty splits are very weird, and its really hard to think of an explanation for it other than being an anomaly. He's 28 years old, right handed and had actually hit lefties slightly better throughout his career prior to last season.

 

I do not like Cespedes at all. Very inconsistent year to year. Very good rookie year, great contract year (albeit spurred by an unsustainable almost historical hot streak that's totally above and beyond his career numbers), and lots of meh in the 2 seasons in between. Gimme Gordon or Upton

Lefty splits can vary greatly from year to year because the sample size is usually pretty small, just look at Abreu in 2014 vs. 2015, his numbers were pretty much exactly the same against RHP, but while he mashed LHP in 2014 he was terrible against them this year. I don't think either season really tells the whole story. Upton mashed lefties in 2013 and 2014, so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Cespedes is a much more dynamic and exciting player.

 

He's a natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing.

 

He can also play any of the OF positions, but is much stronger in RF and LF. Having Cespedes and Eaton together improves your defense quite a bit...and psychologically, knowing you have a competent fielder on your left side allows you to cheat a bit more to the other side and protect Cabrera in the gap. Upton is an average fielder, at best. All of his value comes from hitting and speed/athleticism, which is on the verge of declining in the next couple of years with all of the wear and tear on his body from being healthy for such a long stretch.

 

Yoenis is proven in the AL and NL. He basically was the borderline NL MVP last year, certainly for the last two months. He performed well in both the AL West and AL Central. Upton hasn't shown that...doesn't mean he's not capable, but it's not a given at this point either, not with all the recent issues we've had in that area (LaRoche, Dunn, Samardzija, etc.)

 

With his age and the current White Sox "open window" of 2016 and 2017, a contract for four years for Cespedes with higher average value (or maybe an opt-out again after 2017) makes a lot more financial sense than possibly being "stuck" with Upton for six years.

 

Upton hasn't hit very well the last three years against the AL in inter-league play, only a .207 average in over 200 at-bats.

Agreed. Cespedes is familiar with AL and AL Central. I'm crossing my fingers we get him.

[Lillian]

Caulfield has reiterated a lot of what I posted earlier, and I still think they are valid points. I'm sort of torn between Upton and Cespedes. I'll be thrilled with either one of them, if that's what transpires.

[GreatScott82]

I'm all in on Cedpedes. He doesn't cost a draft pick, had recent success in the AL, provides the team with much needed offensive punch AND has a cannon of an arm to help improve either LF or RF. Hopefully Abreu was in his ear during their Cuba trip. Frazier and Cespedes had 194 RBIs between them both in 2015. Talk about much needed production!

[caulfield12]

Kudos to Lillian for not falling back on the whole LH fascination and advocating for Alex Gordon, haha.

 

(It's pretty amazing how quiet things have actually been on that front, compared to Cespedes and Upton. All you hear is/was what the Cardinals and KC SUPPOSEDLY offered him or initially wanted to offer him, but even that's pretty much unconfirmed. Lots of rumors.)

[Lillian]

Kudos to Lillian for not falling back on the whole LH fascination and advocating for Alex Gordon, haha.

 

(It's pretty amazing how quiet things have actually been on that front, compared to Cespedes and Upton. All you hear is/was what the Cardinals and KC SUPPOSEDLY offered him or initially wanted to offer him, but even that's pretty much unconfirmed. Lots of rumors.)

 

Hey, I'd still prefer a left handed bat, but unfortunately the only one out there is Gordon, and I don't think that is realistic for this team. I hope that you understand my seeming obsession with that issue is primarily a function of the obvious dearth of LH pop, on recent Sox rosters.

[Steve9347]

He's a natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing.

 

I love this. They're from Cuba so they must be besties, eh? I guess every Domincan or even every American needs to get along?

 

Abreu's arrival certainly helped Alexei mash!

[JRL]

Cespedes is a much more dynamic and exciting player.

 

He's a natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing.

 

He can also play any of the OF positions, but is much stronger in RF and LF. Having Cespedes and Eaton together improves your defense quite a bit...and psychologically, knowing you have a competent fielder on your left side allows you to cheat a bit more to the other side and protect Cabrera in the gap. Upton is an average fielder, at best. All of his value comes from hitting and speed/athleticism, which is on the verge of declining in the next couple of years with all of the wear and tear on his body from being healthy for such a long stretch.

 

Yoenis is proven in the AL and NL. He basically was the borderline NL MVP last year, certainly for the last two months. He performed well in both the AL West and AL Central. Upton hasn't shown that...doesn't mean he's not capable, but it's not a given at this point either, not with all the recent issues we've had in that area (LaRoche, Dunn, Samardzija, etc.)

 

With his age and the current White Sox "open window" of 2016 and 2017, a contract for four years for Cespedes with higher average value (or maybe an opt-out again after 2017) makes a lot more financial sense than possibly being "stuck" with Upton for six years.

 

Upton hasn't hit very well the last three years against the AL in inter-league play, only a .207 average in over 200 at-bats.

 

Not really sure how Cespedes is more "dynamic and exciting" and a more "natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing." Are you just trying to say that they are both Cuban? That would have been easier.

 

Cespedes' defense, even as a corner outfielder (much less the center fielder you suggest he could competently be) has declined in recent seasons and Upton's has improved to the point where the metrics say they're about the same (Upton was actually slightly better in 2015, but only negligibly so).

 

200 ABs is not a significant sample size, especially when those ABs are randomly dispersed and not on a consistent basis. For any player we can pick out even the best of hitters we could go through all their ABs and find 200 of them over which they hit around 207. I'm not sure why Upton's 2015 performance against the AL should be viewed any differently, especially since he's a career 276 hitter vs the AL. For that matter I'm not sure why anyone's uncharacteristically good or bad performance vs the AL or NL specifically should be viewed differently than the result of randomness. People always cite those numbers, but is there some type of statistic I'm missing showing AL pitching to be, on the whole, substantially more difficult to hit against?

 

Cespedes' clearly outlier 2015 season and his very good rookie year sandwiched 2 pretty unimpressive seasons.

[caulfield12]

I'm all in on Cedpedes. He doesn't cost a draft pick, had recent success in the AL, provides the team with much needed offensive punch AND has a cannon of an arm to help improve either LF or RF. Hopefully Abreu was in his ear during their Cuba trip. Frazier and Cespedes had 194 RBIs between them both in 2015. Talk about much needed production!

 

The biggest question if how much of a premium are teams willing to give up to keep their draft picks and sign Cespedes instead of Upton or Gordon?

 

Another year in terms of length?

 

How much in terms of AAV would you increase to not to lose the pick?

 

With Gordon, you're taking away one of their best players (see Thome to the Twins, Victor Martinez instead of Dunn to the Tigers, Miggy to Detroit instead of Chicago)...but then you're also giving the Royals another draft pick. Frankly, KC is going to be rebuilding/retooling in 2018 and 2019, so that consideration has to be WAY behind in terms of all the issues to consider.

 

The major concern has to be the Tigers on any of those three...either raising the price or ending up taking them away and the White Sox getting "stuck" with a second/third tier option.

 

With Verlander, J.Zimmermann, A.Sanchez, Kinsler, Miggy, the Martinezes, Iglesias, Maybin, the Tigers are in the same exact boat as us now in terms of being forced to go back to "all in" and not rebuild.

[chw42]

Kudos to Lillian for not falling back on the whole LH fascination and advocating for Alex Gordon, haha.

 

(It's pretty amazing how quiet things have actually been on that front, compared to Cespedes and Upton. All you hear is/was what the Cardinals and KC SUPPOSEDLY offered him or initially wanted to offer him, but even that's pretty much unconfirmed. Lots of rumors.)

 

I think the Sox need a guy like Gordon more than Cespedes or Upton. We lack defense and the ability to get on base and Gordon does those two things very well. He may lack power, but between Abreu and Frazier, I think we will have enough pop.

 

The only problem is that Gordon's older (32 when the season starts), a lot of his value comes from his defense, and he's had a issue with his wrist the past few years.

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't understand what people mean when they say we would weaken a rival by taking their guy. He's not there now and I don't think the Royals are making much of an effort to keep him.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Kudos to Lillian for not falling back on the whole LH fascination and advocating for Alex Gordon, haha.

 

(It's pretty amazing how quiet things have actually been on that front, compared to Cespedes and Upton. All you hear is/was what the Cardinals and KC SUPPOSEDLY offered him or initially wanted to offer him, but even that's pretty much unconfirmed. Lots of rumors.)

He and his agent are keeping this very very quiet. Casey Close and Gordon. They said that from the get go.

[caulfield12]

Not really sure how Cespedes is more "dynamic and exciting" and a more "natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing." Are you just trying to say that they are both Cuban? That would have been easier.

 

Cespedes' defense, even as a corner outfielder (much less the center fielder you suggest he could competently be) has declined in recent seasons and Upton's has improved to the point where the metrics say they're about the same (Upton was actually slightly better in 2015, but only negligibly so).

 

200 ABs is not a significant sample size, especially when those ABs are randomly dispersed and not on a consistent basis. For any player we can pick out even the best of hitters we could go through all their ABs and find 200 of them over which they hit around 207. I'm not sure why Upton's 2015 performance against the AL should be viewed any differently, especially since he's a career 276 hitter vs the AL. For that matter I'm not sure why anyone's uncharacteristically good or bad performance vs the AL or NL specifically should be viewed differently than the result of randomness. People always cite those numbers, but is there some type of statistic I'm missing showing AL pitching to be, on the whole, substantially more difficult to hit against?

 

Cespedes' clearly outlier 2015 season and his very good rookie year sandwiched 2 pretty unimpressive seasons.

 

 

Obviously Cespedes was a disaster in CF in the playoffs. I just said he could play it, didn't use the word competently in my description.

 

Which defensive metrics are you using?

 

Earlier in the thread, we had three years of DRS and that clearly favored Cespedes, and a large part of that was his huge outfield arm and the number of assists he piles up.

 

 

Yes, I do prefer the "flamboyant" Cuban style of play, but that's just a personal thing. Upton is or has been a close to great player, but never quite lived up to the superstar hype. That's not to say Cespedes is any better, they're obviously very different types of player/s. Same with Gordon, for that matter. I just think in terms of his personality, we need someone like that to wake up the clubhouse. Adding Lawrie, Frazier...things were just so "dull" and "blah" last year from the point that Shark fell apart not so long after we decided to hold onto him. There's no way to quantify it or stick a number or rating, just a general feeling, and then the concern about transitioning to the AL...where the biggest issue for the White Sox seemingly every season is getting out of the gates early or being left buried for dead with the fans and media.

[caulfield12]

He and his agent are keeping this very very quiet. Casey Close and Gordon. They said that from the get go.

 

He was Jeter's agent too, right? The guy has an almost impeccable reputation compared to some agents.

[fathom]

He was Jeter's agent too, right? The guy has an almost impeccable reputation compared to some agents.

 

Greinke and Heyward also. His family will get nice gifts for the holidays

[caulfield12]

I think the White Sox marketing department needs to sit down with the State Department and figure out or at least try to project what's possible economically to work on with Cuba...(granted, everything could change again with a new administration in 2017).

 

If you have Abreu and Cespedes together, or Abreu and Puig, then you basically have made the White Sox "Cuba's team" and you figure out some ways to develop additional revenue streams. Rodon has Cuban ties as well.

 

 

Playing more games in Cuba at some point in Spring Training...travel would be a concern compared to ST in Florida

Having Cuba's WBC games at USCF...

Marketing/merchandising opportunities...

"Official" radio and television contracts...although most get satellite illegally or through DirecTV/DISH from what I understand

 

Of course, this is something the Marlins should have done as well, or SHOULD be doing.

 

Some of these ideas might sound a bit outlandish, but the White Sox need to think "outside of the box" marketing-wise.

 

 

 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

He was Jeter's agent too, right? The guy has an almost impeccable reputation compared to some agents.

Not sure. I just know what I've heard from KC sports radio. I listen to it a lot being a Chiefs fan. They talk a lot about the royals obviously. They've touched on this multiple times.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

While Cespedes prevents you from losing a draft pick, I think I would rather have Upton. He's younger and has a much better career OBP than Cespedes. Of course I'd take either assuming the Sox don't break the bank. With LaRoche and Danks off the books offer a backloaded deal and the salaries could offset.

[Kalapse]

Not really sure how Cespedes is more "dynamic and exciting" and a more "natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing." Are you just trying to say that they are both Cuban? That would have been easier.

 

Cespedes' defense, even as a corner outfielder (much less the center fielder you suggest he could competently be) has declined in recent seasons and Upton's has improved to the point where the metrics say they're about the same (Upton was actually slightly better in 2015, but only negligibly so).

 

200 ABs is not a significant sample size, especially when those ABs are randomly dispersed and not on a consistent basis. For any player we can pick out even the best of hitters we could go through all their ABs and find 200 of them over which they hit around 207. I'm not sure why Upton's 2015 performance against the AL should be viewed any differently, especially since he's a career 276 hitter vs the AL. For that matter I'm not sure why anyone's uncharacteristically good or bad performance vs the AL or NL specifically should be viewed differently than the result of randomness. People always cite those numbers, but is there some type of statistic I'm missing showing AL pitching to be, on the whole, substantially more difficult to hit against?

 

Cespedes' clearly outlier 2015 season and his very good rookie year sandwiched 2 pretty unimpressive seasons.

I'm an Upton guy but what metrics are you using to grade defense? By Both DRS and UZR Cespedes has actually improved in LF every year: 1, 4, 12, 15. By UZR: -3.6, 8, 10.1, 18.8. Neither DRS nor UZR has Upton anywhere near Cespedes last year with an 8 DRS and 2 UZR.

[JRL]

I'm an Upton guy but what metrics are you using to grade defense? By Both DRS and UZR Cespedes has actually improved in LF every year: 1, 4, 12, 15. By UZR: -3.6, 8, 10.1, 18.8. Neither DRS nor UZR has Upton anywhere near Cespedes last year with an 8 DRS and 2 UZR.

 

Was using DWAR from BBREF