Chris Sale named to All-Star game

[shysocks]

WAR is definitely an attempt to guess how many wins a player is worth in the standings. One goal of the WAR model is to correlate MLB teams' total WAR with their winning % as closely as possible. By and large it does a pretty good job of this. There is always error because the inputs of WAR tend to ignore the order in which things happen on the field, which will swing the results from what they "should" be.

 

So yes, it is essentially saying that if you took away Q and inserted Carroll or whoever, the Sox would be 41-44 right now. 3 WAR doesn't seem like that much, but consider a few things.

 

1. We're only about halfway into the season.

2. Q has only played in 17 games. He is only active for part of each game he starts.

3. Pitchers cannot win games by themselves (Q is all too familiar with this concept).

 

Q's innings pitched this year amount to about 12 full games. Let's say a pitcher of his talent level "should" have a 7-5 record. Doesn't replacing that with 4-9 make that 3 WAR seem a lot more significant?

 

(As an aside, I wanna drone on about the third point. Think of a player's performance on a probability continuum. A pitcher has a certain range of outcomes in which his outings are likely to turn out. A couple will be much better, a couple will be much worse, but most might cluster around a certain number of innings and runs. In Q's case, it's 6 or 7 innings and 1 or 2 runs. For a replacement player, it might be 5 innings and 3 runs or something, but he also could go out and throw seven shutout innings too. A good chunk of their bell curves are gonna overlap. We can expect less from Carroll on a given day but he would not be guaranteed to pitch worse than Q, and it would not be a guaranteed loss. The offense has the same sliding performance, and so does the bullpen. Maybe the team would have scored 11 runs that day regardless of who was pitching. Maybe the bullpen comes on and gives up 7 anyway. Thinking in these terms helps me appreciate how many players can have an impact on every game and why 6 WAR over a full season is a huge number.)

[Y2Jimmy0]

keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 12h12 hours ago

@whitesox if Quintana doesn't get Kimbrel's spot let's go TP Ned Yost's house

 

Law has been really stumping for Quintana lately

[flavum]

It would be awesome if Q went out and pitched a complete game shutout. He would have a 2.83 ERA, while Sale has a 3.38 ERA.

 

Kluber got snubbed the year he won the Cy. It happens.

[Jose Abreu]

So we're still waiting for word on replacements for both Davis and Kimbrel... one of them has to be Quintana, no?

[Kyyle23]

So we're still waiting for word on replacements for both Davis and Kimbrel... one of them has to be Quintana, no?

 

Surely Kendrys Morales and Paulo Orlando will take their places because Ned Yost

[Rowand44]

So we're still waiting for word on replacements for both Davis and Kimbrel... one of them has to be Quintana, no?

Jose Quintana does not actually exist outside of Soxtalk. So nope, Q will never be on the allstar team.

[Jose Abreu]

Surely Kendrys Morales and Paulo Orlando will take their places because Ned Yost

 

 

Jose Quintana does not actually exist outside of Soxtalk. So nope, Q will never be on the allstar team.

 

Lmao, in all honesty the replacements could be Rich Hill and Aaron Sanchez, or some random middle reliever, so maybe he really won't make it. Shouldn't the announcement be today?

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Quintana will throw a no hitter today and still not be an All-Star

[Jose Abreu]

NL replacements have been announced.... still no word on the Davis/Kimbrel swaps

[Jose Abreu]

Aaron Sanchez got the replacement call.

[Jose Abreu]

White Sox twitter tweets agreement of plans to TP Yost's house: https://twitter.com/whitesox/status/751874660283842560

[ptatc]

WAR is definitely an attempt to guess how many wins a player is worth in the standings. One goal of the WAR model is to correlate MLB teams' total WAR with their winning % as closely as possible. By and large it does a pretty good job of this. There is always error because the inputs of WAR tend to ignore the order in which things happen on the field, which will swing the results from what they "should" be.

 

So yes, it is essentially saying that if you took away Q and inserted Carroll or whoever, the Sox would be 41-44 right now. 3 WAR doesn't seem like that much, but consider a few things.

 

1. We're only about halfway into the season.

2. Q has only played in 17 games. He is only active for part of each game he starts.

3. Pitchers cannot win games by themselves (Q is all too familiar with this concept).

 

Q's innings pitched this year amount to about 12 full games. Let's say a pitcher of his talent level "should" have a 7-5 record. Doesn't replacing that with 4-9 make that 3 WAR seem a lot more significant?

 

(As an aside, I wanna drone on about the third point. Think of a player's performance on a probability continuum. A pitcher has a certain range of outcomes in which his outings are likely to turn out. A couple will be much better, a couple will be much worse, but most might cluster around a certain number of innings and runs. In Q's case, it's 6 or 7 innings and 1 or 2 runs. For a replacement player, it might be 5 innings and 3 runs or something, but he also could go out and throw seven shutout innings too. A good chunk of their bell curves are gonna overlap. We can expect less from Carroll on a given day but he would not be guaranteed to pitch worse than Q, and it would not be a guaranteed loss. The offense has the same sliding performance, and so does the bullpen. Maybe the team would have scored 11 runs that day regardless of who was pitching. Maybe the bullpen comes on and gives up 7 anyway. Thinking in these terms helps me appreciate how many players can have an impact on every game and why 6 WAR over a full season is a huge number.)

While this is true the fact remains that by WAR Scott Carroll is less than 3 ganes worse than Chris Sale. I just don't buy it.

[Jake]

While this is true the fact remains that by WAR Scott Carroll is less than 3 ganes worse than Chris Sale. I just don't buy it.

 

That's because in the case of Scott Carroll part of his value is the fact that he hasn't pitched that much. The more the two of them pitch, the bigger the discrepancy gets. This is not to mention that WAR very nicely handles the case of a guy who pitched just a couple innings–he can't do much either way in such little time. It's a counting stat, not a pure prediction of whether Scott Carroll or Chris Sale would be better given the same amount of playing time.

 

It's like saying "I can't believe Tim Anderson is only 2 RBI better than JB Shuck." Well, you need some context to decide what it all means, especially playing time.

Edited July 9, 2016 by Jake

[ptatc]

That's because in the case of Scott Carroll part of his value is the fact that he hasn't pitched that much. The more the two of them pitch, the bigger the discrepancy gets. This is not to mention that WAR very nicely handles the case of a guy who pitched just a couple innings–he can't do much either way in such little time. It's a counting stat, not a pure prediction of whether Scott Carroll or Chris Sale would be better given the same amount of playing time.

 

It's like saying "I can't believe Tim Anderson is only 2 RBI better than JB Shuck." Well, you need some context to decide what it all means, especially playing time.

I aas just using Scott Carroll as an example of a 6 year minor league guy or ST invitee for the replacement representative. I didn't even look for his actual WAR.

 

The point is that Chris Sale or Quintana two of the highest WAR pitchers in the league are only 3 games better than any available 6 year minor league guy like Scott Carroll.

[caulfield12]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/so...qualified/false

 

Check out the -0.8 WAR line (bottom 40 pitchers in the majors, qualified and unqualfied).

 

You'll find Matt Albers, along with the likes of Buchholz and Andrew Cashner, for example. Erik Johnson at -0.9. Shelby Miller at -1.2 (worst trade in years). Ubaldo Jimenez at -1.6. Tolleson, deposed Rangers' closer, at -1.0.

 

Eric Surkamp and James Shields both at -0.4.

[Quin]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/so...qualified/false

 

Check out the -0.8 WAR line (bottom 40 pitchers in the majors, qualified and unqualfied).

 

You'll find Matt Albers, along with the likes of Buchholz and Andrew Cashner, for example. Erik Johnson at -0.9. Shelby Miller at -1.2 (worst trade in years). Ubaldo Jimenez at -1.6. Tolleson, deposed Rangers' closer, at -1.0.

 

Eric Surkamp and James Shields both at -0.4.

 

Man, that Shelby Miller has a chance to be one of the worst trades ever.

[caulfield12]

LaRussa and Stewart aren't winning many fans out there.

 

Greinke hasn't been nearly as good as 2015, although he's stabilized from that terrible first month.

 

Shelby Miller disaster. Yasmani Tomas can't play defense. Injuries. Having to trade Ziegler for two (at best) Top 16-30 prospects in the Red Sox system (albeit, with more potential, than, let's say Tatis, Jr.)

 

Lamb is one of the few positives out there.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

LaRussa and Stewart aren't winning many fans out there.

 

Greinke hasn't been nearly as good as 2015, although he's stabilized from that terrible first month.

 

Shelby Miller disaster. Yasmani Tomas can't play defense. Injuries. Having to trade Ziegler for two (at best) Top 16-30 prospects in the Red Sox system (albeit, with more potential, than, let's say Tatis, Jr.)

 

Lamb is one of the few positives out there.

Ya they've been awful. You could even mention the Eaton trade. (If that was this regime)

[caulfield12]

Ya they've been awful. You could even mention the Eaton trade. (If that was this regime)

 

Prior...worth noting, the two best trades of the last decade, for Quentin and Eaton...were both with ARIZ.

 

Everyone else coming over from the NL since that 2004-05 cycle (AJ/Pods/Hermanson), pretty much disastrous, with just a few exceptions.

Edited July 10, 2016 by caulfield12

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Prior...worth noting, the two best trades of the last decade, for Quentin and Eaton...were both with ARIZ.

 

Everyone else coming over from the NL since that 2004-05 cycle (AJ/Pods/Hermanson), pretty much disastrous, with just a few exceptions.

I did like Chris Carter though. He's not anything special but watched him at Kanny here in charleston. Hit a bomb.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Prior...worth noting, the two best trades of the last decade, for Quentin and Eaton...were both with ARIZ.

 

Everyone else coming over from the NL since that 2004-05 cycle (AJ/Pods/Hermanson), pretty much disastrous, with just a few exceptions.

Ya win some ya lose some it feels like losing more often than not here lately. Fraziers been about what I've expected minus the awful average and extremely low amount of doubles.

[smalls2598]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 5m5 minutes ago

Chris Sale and Johnny Cueto will be #ASG starters

[Jose Abreu]

Sale starting and likely going one inning. Quintana likely to pitch the 5th.

[flavum]

Happy for Sale. Glad he is opening up about chewing tobacco. I hope MLB bans it because it's time.

[Lip Man 1]

Well deserved for Chris.

 

Lip