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Machado signs with Padres 10/300

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17 minutes ago, iamshack said:

Vegas has the White Sox 3rd to sign Machado behind the Yankees and the Padres.

 

Not even on the list for Harper.

Edited by ptatc

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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Vegas has the White Sox 3rd to sign Machado behind the Yankees and the Padres.

And the Yankees are not getting Machado.  I would also be shocked to see the Padres beat the rumored 8/250 offer.

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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Vegas has the White Sox 3rd to sign Machado behind the Yankees and the Padres.

This isn’t entirely true. Nevada sports books can only offer prop bets that take place on the playing surface and can be verified in a box score. The only exceptions are coin tosses. 

The sports books taking action on where Manny signs are off shore. 

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13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Vegas has the White Sox 3rd to sign Machado behind the Yankees and the Padres.

 

Not even on the list for Harper.

I said this a few pages back, but I'll say it again.

 

1. BetOnline is from Australia NOT VEGAS. Vegas cannot take that kind of prop bet. It is ILLEGAL.

2. Books don't post odds based on info (to an extent). They post odds based on where the money is coming in so that they can cover themselves. So, if the money is coming in on the Yankees (which it will b/c they're the yankees and everyone bets on the big boys), they're going to make the odds worse for the Yanks to entice bets being placed on the teams where they have less exposure.

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35 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

And the Yankees are not getting Machado.  I would also be shocked to see the Padres beat the rumored 8/250 offer.

Call Vegas insider then. The Sox are 5/1 Bet 100 and make 500. Yankees are 1/2. They are such a prohibitive favorite that it's not worth betting.

Edited by ptatc

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22 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

I said this a few pages back, but I'll say it again.

 

1. BetOnline is from Australia NOT VEGAS. Vegas cannot take that kind of prop bet. It is ILLEGAL.

2. Books don't post odds based on info (to an extent). They post odds based on where the money is coming in so that they can cover themselves. So, if the money is coming in on the Yankees (which it will b/c they're the yankees and everyone bets on the big boys), they're going to make the odds worse for the Yanks to entice bets being placed on the teams where they have less exposure.

My apologies. The Vegas insider has those odds. Didn't realize that it wasn't tied to Vegas. Either way those are the current odds of places where you can bet on those types of things.

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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

My apologies. The Vegas insider has those odds. Didn't realize that it wasn't tied to Vegas. Either way those are the current odds of places where you can bet on those types of things.

right, but the point is, odds aren't "technically" based on predictions. they're based on where the money is coming in and where the money will come in based on the odds given.

 

EDIT: as someone else posted, the sox "odds" increased within an hr or two to +200 right behind the yankees who dropped back to +100. essentially meaning the money was coming in on the white sox. nothing actually changed to give them better odds. im not trying to be hostile in any way, just trying to make sure everyone understands the meaning of those numbers.

Edited by Kiebs13
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10 hours ago, drgiggles15 said:

If a player is out for a year due to Tommy John, like Kopech, do we lose a year of his contract as well? What about if a player is suspended? Just for example, we sign a guy to a 5 year deal and he is injured the whole year or suspended, does that still count as a year of service even tho they didn't play? Probably a stupid question, I know.

If a player signed to an extension or free agent contract misses a year, he gets the full pay and the team just misses him for that year. Same for suspension, but with no pay. There isn't another year tacked on and the player still hits free agency at the same time. However, since Kopech is still under team control and playing for the minimum, the Sox won't lose a year of control. For all intents and purposes, it's like he's spending another year in the minors, contract wise.

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1 minute ago, Roughneck said:

If a player signed to an extension or free agent contract misses a year, he gets the full pay and the team just misses him for that year. Same for suspension, but with no pay. There isn't another year tacked on and the player still hits free agency at the same time. However, since Kopech is still under team control and playing for the minimum, the Sox won't lose a year of control. For all intents and purposes, it's like he's spending another year in the minors, contract wise.

I don't think this is correct. He got injured while on the MLB roster so his service counts. 

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4 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

right, but the point is, odds aren't "technically" based on predictions. they're based on where the money is coming in and where the money will come in based on the odds given.

That wasn't my point. My point is if people are confident that he will sign with the Sox, you can make good money on it. 

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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

I don't think this is correct. He got injured while on the MLB roster so his service counts. 

Yeah, he is incorrect. The injury occurred while he was on the ML roster, so he has to be put on the ML disabled list where he still gets service time.

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2 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

right, but the point is, odds aren't "technically" based on predictions. they're based on where the money is coming in and where the money will come in based on the odds given.

Yes, and this is why teams like the Cubs will always have better odds than they should in bad years. Dopes will put money on them to win the world series coming off a 100 loss season just because they're so damn lovable and you gotta believe and such nonsense. Since money will come in no matter what, they give the Cubs better odds so they would have to pay out less in the instance they were to win.

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1 minute ago, GenericUserName said:

Yeah, he is incorrect. The injury occurred while he was on the ML roster, so he has to be put on the ML disabled list where he still gets service time.

Damn. That really sucks for the Sox. I mean, more so than the injury itself.

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I absolutely dgaf about what Vegas odds are saying. Of course the Sox's odds are bad. They've never given you a reason to bet on them. 

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9 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That wasn't my point. My point is if people are confident that he will sign with the Sox, you can make good money on it. 

The limit on that is probably like 100 dollars.

Edited by mqr
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Just now, mqr said:

They limit on that is probably like 100 dollars.

exactly. I think the biggest bet I've seen available to be made on this prop is like 250 bucks.

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2 minutes ago, heirdog said:

Nice work, Shack.  Fingers crossed they pull it off.

This machado saga damaged my mental health my marriage my sleep my job. Enough this has to end. Hahn and jr must decide or move on to other moves

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8 minutes ago, Greek-konerko said:

This machado saga damaged my mental health my marriage my sleep my job. Enough this has to end. Hahn and jr must decide or move on to other moves

Looks like you got off easy.

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HAVE YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW BEEN AFFECTED BY THE MACHADO SAGA? IF SO, YOU COULD BE ELIGIBLE FOR LEGAL COMPENSATION. THE FIRST CALL IS ALWAYS FREE AND REMEMBER:

I DONT GET PAID

UNLESS YOU GET PAID

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6 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

People citing Vegas odds as projections always cracks me up. 

apparently there aren't enough degenerates on this board lol

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