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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Frankly yes, several of those countries have done terrible jobs. England was awful, they had the wonderful "let's get to Herd immunity by letting it infect everyone" idea until their universities told them that's going to kill a million citizens. Sweden has had no official lockdowns, so saying they're idiots is describing exactly what we're doing right now. Spain and France got hit hard early, but they've also dropped their case loads down hugely since their peaks, which we have not done. 

There's no reason why the US had to have 100,000 dead people. We could have kept it to a few thousand with appropriate preparation and leadership, maybe even less. 

Italy has more issues with underlying conditions, smoking and a decaying health care infrastructure and general economic malaise.

Finland and Norway have done much better...compared to Sweden.  It’s completely fair to compare those three countries, as they have multiple layers of similarity.

UK had a mostly political response, and panicked.

Spain does have more tourism, so increased travel is a factor there.  Same with France.

 

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33 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

And those idiots in France...and those Idiots in Spain...and those idiots in Belgium...and those idiots in England...and those idiots in Sweden...if we could only have you as world despot there would have been zero deaths.   

This reads like a Trump tweet storm in its efforts to deflect blame.  Only needs to work in Obama or Biden to make it an A+.

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1 hour ago, The Beast said:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-20200518-iht67oldlfhrnlju7dy4tkiad4-story.html
 

So, is he full of hot air or is he actually taking the drug?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/podcasts/the-daily/economy-coronavirus-jobs-layoffs.html

Also, should congress pass a bill for more money to save the economy? Jerome Powell seems to think so even if republicans in Congress don’t all think so. It makes me wonder if Trump will go after Biden saying there isn’t going to be money for his proposals even though Trump has added to the national deficit, going against what traditional conservatives believe.

 

He either has Covid, or is lying about taking the drug. Either is plausible. 

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3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

He either has Covid, or is lying about taking the drug. Either is plausible. 

His Dr.'s could be lying to him/giving him a  very dilute dose also. 

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10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Frankly yes, several of those countries have done terrible jobs. England was awful, they had the wonderful "let's get to Herd immunity by letting it infect everyone" idea until their universities told them that's going to kill a million citizens. Sweden has had no official lockdowns, so saying they're idiots is describing exactly what we're doing right now. Spain and France got hit hard early, but they've also dropped their case loads down hugely since their peaks, which we have not done. 

There's no reason why the US had to have 100,000 dead people. We could have kept it to a few thousand with appropriate preparation and leadership, maybe even less. 

Can you help me understand how it SHOULD have been done? 
 

You’re President Balta, it’s the end of January and Fauci is telling the American people between Jan 20-26 this is not something Americans need to worry about, that the risk over here is low, but that they are closely monitoring it.  Not sure what he’s telling Trump but that’s the message out there.  Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of people are flying in and out of China and Wuhan.  
 

What do you do to ensure only a few thousand deaths?
 

 

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1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

That's interesting. It's amazing what a truly totalitarian state can do.   As you rightly say it doesn't offer much guidance to the swirling democracy we live in. 

I'm not sure it's fair to say "well if it would have been Obama it would have been worse."  I'm ideologically opposite of most of where President Obama stood...but I always thought he was elected and had a right to try and truly was good-hearted in his attempts at doing things I disagreed with.  Sure Fox news had negative stuff on him but only 30% of it was shrill.   But 90% of all news articles about Trump have been negative.  It's exhausting.  Honestly everything he's done has not been horrible. His responses to this virus have not been horrible.  But it seems there is no sense reason on the other side.  I used to love the Sunday political talk shows...not for the canned politicians reciting their talking points...but the moderators and talking heads dissecting the events.  Smart guys thinking and saying smart things in opposition but well thought out. Now it is just who can howl the loudest Trump hate.  

Even on Meet the Press or Face the Nation? Trump himself is exhausting, although if they ignore him, he will accuse the media of not covering him. They have an impossible task, hold him to the fire or ask him questions and he goes off the rails.

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1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Can you help me understand how it SHOULD have been done? 
 

You’re President Balta, it’s the end of January and Fauci is telling the American people between Jan 20-26 this is not something Americans need to worry about, that the risk over here is low, but that they are closely monitoring it.  Not sure what he’s telling Trump but that’s the message out there.  Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of people are flying in and out of China and Wuhan.  
 

What do you do to ensure only a few thousand deaths?
 

 

1. January: recognize issue, ramp up production of masks, PPE.

2. Bring in the WHO tests in January, distribute widely. Work with the FDA to approve additional facilities to conduct tests. We were flying blind the entire month of February, missing probably 10,000 cases.

3. By late February, with adequate testing, we've realized we have hundreds of cases in CA and WA and thousands of cases in New York. Panic. Slam those cities shut. Shut down schools, the subway, taxis, restaurants. Cancel big events (there was a super-spreading event at a conference in Boston in late Feb.). Cancel spring break trips, begin imposing international travel limits. Regardless of what was said in January, no matter how many stocks Republican senators dumped, by the fact that we have testing we have information to go from.

4. Start setting up emergency quarantine procedures. People coming into the country are isolated by law for 14 days. GPS units or whatever it takes. Take over a whole bunch of Hotels and use them to begin quarantining infected people away from their families, with food, for free, so that you cut off familial transmission lines. 

5. Take all that testing capacity you built up by being responsible in February and throw it as hard as you can at NYC. Burn out those transmission chains. That is where the US outbreak came from. Every departure you get from there shuts down an outbreak somewhere in the country.

6. In March, start working for long-term containment. Encourage people to begin wearing masks. Local and state health departments gear up for contact tracing. Whenever a case pops up, trace it as aggressively as possible. This is going to be hard because you'll have to deal with popups in underserved communities, including native americans, undocumented immigrants, poor and uninsured people, but you have to do it. Start developing plans for how to keep industries functioning without outbreaks, 

7. Begin re-opening things around late April, particularly in places that haven't shown a case in 2+ weeks. Don't do it by states, do it by locality. When you have a flare-up, then you do additional shutdowns and quarantines as necessary. Note how much less the economic impact is at this point, because businesses are able to start recovering a month ago.

8. Consistent messaging led by scientists and the CDC so that we're reinforcing constantly that this is a serious situation but that by being responsible we are winning. 

This has worked in South Korea, Germany, this has New Zealand down to 0 cases. 

BTW, just to add, the second worst US politician in their response to this, behind Trump, was DiBlasio. 

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

His Dr.'s could be lying to him/giving him a  very dilute dose also. 

I’m skeptical. Is it just coincidence he announces this hours after Dr. Bright is on 60 Minutes, which Trump live tweeted?

 

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7.  Scientists require observable data, not _______________, to support a hypothesis;  sound science is grounded in _______________ results rather than speculation.

 

A) induction…diminutive

B) experimentation…pragmatic

C) intuition…fiscal

D) bombast…theoretical

E) conjecture…empirical

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18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. January: recognize issue, ramp up production of masks, PPE.

2. Bring in the WHO tests in January, distribute widely. Work with the FDA to approve additional facilities to conduct tests. We were flying blind the entire month of February, missing probably 10,000 cases.

3. By late February, with adequate testing, we've realized we have hundreds of cases in CA and WA and thousands of cases in New York. Panic. Slam those cities shut. Shut down schools, the subway, taxis, restaurants. Cancel big events (there was a super-spreading event at a conference in Boston in late Feb.). Cancel spring break trips, begin imposing international travel limits. 

4. Start setting up emergency quarantine procedures. People coming into the country are isolated by law for 14 days. GPS units or whatever it takes. Take over a whole bunch of Hotels and use them to begin quarantining infected people away from their families, with food, for free, so that you cut off familial transmission lines. 

5. Take all that testing capacity you built up by being responsible in February and throw it as hard as you can at NYC. Burn out those transmission chains. That is where the US outbreak came from. Every departure you get from there shuts down an outbreak somewhere in the country.

6. In March, start working for long-term containment. Encourage people to begin wearing masks. Local and state health departments gear up for contact tracing. Whenever a case pops up, trace it as aggressively as possible. This is going to be hard because you'll have to deal with popups in underserved communities, including native americans, undocumented immigrants, poor and uninsured people, but you have to do it. Start developing plans for how to keep industries functioning without outbreaks, 

7. Begin re-opening things around late April, particularly in places that haven't shown a case in 2+ weeks. Don't do it by states, do it by locality. When you have a flare-up, then you do additional shutdowns and quarantines as necessary.

8. Consistent messaging led by scientists and the CDC so that we're reinforcing constantly that this is a serious situation but that by being responsible we are winning. 

This has worked in South Korea, Germany, this has New Zealand down to 0 cases. 

BTW, just to add, the second worst US politician in their response to this, behind Trump, was DiBlasio. 

I think many of your ideas are useful.  I think the next time we will be better prepared.  I think there are zero presidents in my lifetime that would have ramped up production in January for a virus unknown outside of China at that time....or end of February when twenty Americans had it.   I think outside of a few in the CDC most people in the US were not that freaked out about Viruses.  I asked my parents if they remember the 1957 outbreak (in their thirties at the time) they can't even remember it...and it was BAD.   I was a young kid in 1968 and remember the Hong Kong flu...but more as a comedy punch line than something I was "afraid" of.  Sars, Mers, Swine flu?  The annual flu?  Meh.  Only 40% of Americans were even bothering with the flu vaccine.  But NOW....every weird disease is going to be treated as if it is the big one.  I for one wouldn't mind seeing 10% of the $700 defense budget being shifted over to the CDC. Of course we are always fighting the last battle...five years from now it will be a super volcano and everyone will be saying the president is an idiot because he didn't prepare us for it...or alien invasion...or polar shift...or solar flares that knock out all electronics.  So many terrors out there.    

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Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think many of your ideas are useful.  I think the next time we will be better prepared.  I think there are zero presidents in my lifetime that would have ramped up production in January for a virus unknown outside of China at that time....or end of February when twenty Americans had it.   I think outside of a few in the CDC most people in the US were not that freaked out about Viruses.  I asked my parents if they remember the 1957 outbreak (in their thirties at the time) they can't even remember it...and it was BAD.   I was a young kid in 1968 and remember the Hong Kong flu...but more as a comedy punch line than something I was "afraid" of.  Sars, Mers, Swine flu?  The annual flu?  Meh.  Only 40% of Americans were even bothering with the flu vaccine.  But NOW....every weird disease is going to be treated as if it is the big one.  I for one wouldn't mind seeing 10% of the $700 defense budget being shifted over to the CDC. Of course we are always fighting the last battle...five years from now it will be a super volcano and everyone will be saying the president is an idiot because he didn't prepare us for it...or alien invasion...or polar shift...or solar flares that knock out all electronics.  So many terrors out there.    

At the end of February there were probably somewhere between a few thousand and ten-thousand cases, concentrated in New York. There were a few dozen cases known because we had run a few hundred tests total. 

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3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

7.  Scientists require observable data, not _______________, to support a hypothesis;  sound science is grounded in _______________ results rather than speculation.

 

A) induction…diminutive

B) experimentation…pragmatic

C) intuition…fiscal

D) bombast…theoretical

E) conjecture…empirical

F) models...repeatable double blind tested trial 

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1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think many of your ideas are useful.  I think the next time we will be better prepared.  I think there are zero presidents in my lifetime that would have ramped up production in January for a virus unknown outside of China at that time....or end of February when twenty Americans had it.   I think outside of a few in the CDC most people in the US were not that freaked out about Viruses.  I asked my parents if they remember the 1957 outbreak (in their thirties at the time) they can't even remember it...and it was BAD.   I was a young kid in 1968 and remember the Hong Kong flu...but more as a comedy punch line than something I was "afraid" of.  Sars, Mers, Swine flu?  The annual flu?  Meh.  Only 40% of Americans were even bothering with the flu vaccine.  But NOW....every weird disease is going to be treated as if it is the big one.  I for one wouldn't mind seeing 10% of the $700 defense budget being shifted over to the CDC. Of course we are always fighting the last battle...five years from now it will be a super volcano and everyone will be saying the president is an idiot because he didn't prepare us for it...or alien invasion...or polar shift...or solar flares that knock out all electronics.  So many terrors out there.    

So it should be relatively easy to understand why China (mostly) learned from the mistakes of SARS from 2002-2003, where they hid evidence and cases for 2-3 months rather than 2-3 weeks...because it already happened in their own backyard.

 

Combined with the previous experience in southern China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore....those countries also have some innate advantages:

A) universal/government-subsidized health care systems

B) ubiquitous adoption of masks for pollution/public safety/common colds or flus

C) universal adoption of mobile phone apps which add in tracking/tracing (here in Wuhan, you could go neighborhood by neighborhood and district by district viewing the number of cases on an interactive map, including warnings when someone who had been in close contact with someone with a temperature was in proximity to you)

D) the fact that locking down Westernized countries with individual houses as opposed to apartment blocks or grids is much more difficult logistically and politically

E)  the fact that the privacy/security rights in most Asian countries cede data/information to those national governments and/or tech companies already

F)  complete embrace of online economy for buying of groceries as well as cheap/affordable delivery system already in place

G)  manpower in public health already training and dedicated to tracing/tracking

H)  infrastructure/built-up resources for PUBLIC health testing....not over reliance on more expensive, private lab tests that are not going to be affordable or desired by much of the population

I)  longevity from healthier diets and more exercise, as most people don't own cars and have to exercise more frequently....walk to subways, morning exercise culture, etc.

 

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

At the end of February there were probably somewhere between a few thousand and ten-thousand cases, concentrated in New York. There were a few dozen cases known because we had run a few hundred tests total. 

60 recorded cases out of 330,000,000 people at the end of February in US and zero deaths.   I suspect you are right...I suspect a lot of people in NYC, Seattle and California had it in December.  A monster came out of the mountains of China.  We had never seen this monster before.  Our Monster watch organization didn't see it coming and had no real plan in case we encountered a monster.  China sends the monster over to the US.  When the death rate from the monster stood at zero in the US...we should have had the country locked down. The president took some actions but fell short of screaming for everyone to hide in their basements.  Turns out the monster is pretty bad.  Monster kills a lot of people.  Moral of the story...President is a bad guy.     

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10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

F) models...repeatable double blind tested trial 

Which clearly disqualifies hydroxychloroquine.

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Which clearly disqualifies hydroxychloroquine.

But science in a crisis??  Throw spaghetti at the wall.  Like when someone has inoperable cancer and you can't get laetrile because it's not been double blind tested by the FDA so you have to go sit in your hospital room and wait for your death because...well why try stuff that isn't 100% safe.   

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6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Which clearly disqualifies hydroxychloroquine.

I can't believe this is still a thing. This thread, which was once a refuge from the craziness and conspiracies on basically any other public forum, has gotten hard to read ever since more people started taking Greg's bait and the False Equivalence Army came out of the woodwork... but even then, I can't believe that the latter is still arguing for that drug even after it was revealed weeks ago that the whole thing was just another profit scheme masquerading as health care (obviously, in addition to the drug not even working)

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8 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

But science in a crisis??  Throw spaghetti at the wall.  Like when someone has inoperable cancer and you can't get laetrile because it's not been double blind tested by the FDA so you have to go sit in your hospital room and wait for your death because...well why try stuff that isn't 100% safe.   

But this is also the same reason we don't have an AIDs/HIV vaccine even though that particular disease has been around since the 1980's.

Science is REALLY hard.   Just wishing something into reality...Trump can make all the aspirational/hopeful/hopelessly optimistic comments he wants, it's not going to compress the normal timeline from 18-24 months down to 6 months.   And pushing through all the normal safeguards just to get a product out or at least announced before November 3rd isn't going to make our country any safer....it could likely have disastrous health consequences.

Even then, it would still take XXX amount of time to extend the dosages beyond first responders to a global population of 7.8 billion people.

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29 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think many of your ideas are useful.  I think the next time we will be better prepared.  I think there are zero presidents in my lifetime that would have ramped up production in January for a virus unknown outside of China at that time....or end of February when twenty Americans had it.

Just want to point out, go read about Bush and what he did while in office in terms of preparedness for an pandemic.   We had stock piles of essential items, years ago.  All the things we needed months ago and still do now.  But as our government goes, it was used and not replaced, then essentially scrapped by those who came after him.  We have no idea what the government response would have been from any other president though, so it's hard to say.   However, there was at least one president in my lifetime that talked about a pandemic and tried to have the country ready for it.

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6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I can't believe this is still a thing. This thread, which was once a refuge from the craziness and conspiracies on basically any other public forum, has gotten hard to read ever since more people started taking Greg's bait and the False Equivalence Army came out of the woodwork... but even then, I can't believe that the latter is still arguing for that drug even after it was revealed weeks ago that the whole thing was just another profit scheme masquerading as health care (obviously, in addition to the drug not even working)

You're absolutely right.  I think it's why both parties need to start thinking more like entrepreneurs.    And it's a huge weakness for the Biden campaign, breaking through.   What is our country going to look like 5, 10 and 25 years down the line?   What can we start doing now in terms of infrastructure investment, 5G, internet broadband/wireless access build-out, investments in the next generation of start-ups, chemists, biologists, AI, data scientists, etc.

We have the best public universities in the world....the best environment (still) for innovation and experimentation, the best and brightest scientists and engineers....many aspects of a capitalistic system that work extremely well and incentivize hard work as well as risk-taking, but we've got to get this figured out fast before we get behind over the next generation, and looking inwardly for all the answers, closing off borders to where 40% of next billion or trillion dollar enterprises are originating, that's just cutting off the nose to spite and face.

If we had formed a multinational group of EU countries, working along with Canada/Mexico, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN countries that were not directly aligned with China, we would have been able to use that leverage to settle a lot of these ongoing issues with China 2-3 years ago.   As it stands now, we're just stuck in a status-quo situation...and there are too many countries around the world that need China as a trading partner as much or even more than they need the US (German auto exporters, for example.)

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4 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Literally everyone, including people in China, who have been paying attention, are aware that China's death numbers are a vast undercount. Why they keep pretending otherwise is beyond me since the cat is well out of the bag.

 

China, pure and simple is our enemy. Wish we'd hear more anger toward China from our people, at least as much venom as Americans speak toward Trump. Our PC culture be damned; China is a huge enemy of the USA and a disgrace to the world considering their control of people who should be free and aren't. . Letting them have so much control over our pharmaceuticals is just sickening.

Edited by greg775
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12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We have the best public universities in the world....the best environment (still) for innovation and experimentation, the best and brightest scientists and engineers....many aspects of a capitalistic system that work extremely well and incentivize hard work as well as risk-taking,

Now those are positive sentences. It's still OK to praise America. Thanks Caulfield. USA is the best!

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2 minutes ago, greg775 said:

China, pure and simple is our enemy. Wish we'd hear more anger toward China from our people, at least as much venom as Americans speak toward Trump. Our PC culture be damned; China is a huge enemy of the USA and a disgrace to the world considering their control of people who should be free and aren't. . Letting them have so much control over our pharmaceuticals is just sickening.

Then we should be worried about India as well, 70% of the  pharmaceutical production is centered there...whereas most of the active ingredients come from China.

But Greg, how does it help the US RIGHT NOW to solve the current crisis...it's like doing to the 9/11 Commission in December of 2001.   100+ countries are working together to ATTEMPT to confront China through the WHO/WHA.     

What do you propose?   A nuclear attack?   Assassination?    The way to beat China is to out-innovate them, to out-think them, to put aside short-term profits for long-term strategic thinking.   How can a country without our rights and freedoms be such a threat to the United States?    It only seems logical that the majority of students around the world would choose the US to study, or to work in the US after graduation.   That's the strength of the US, the American Dream.    We've lost sight of that....it's now the American Dream for only a small subset of our population (many are going to do worse than their parents, financially, for the first time), and we've also lost sight of all the benefits that immigration can bring.   It's, not coincidentally, one of the major weaknesses of China...diversity of thought/opinion/political and religious belief.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Then we should be worried about India as well, 70% of the  pharmaceutical production is centered there...whereas most of the active ingredients come from China.

But Greg, how does it help the US RIGHT NOW to solve the current crisis...it's like doing to the 9/11 Commission in December of 2001.   100+ countries are working together to ATTEMPT to confront China through the WHO/WHA.     

What do you propose?   A nuclear attack?   Assassination?    The way to beat China is to out-innovate them, to out-think them, to put aside short-term profits for long-term strategic thinking.   How can a country without our rights and freedoms be such a threat to the United States?    It only seems logical that the majority of students around the world would choose the US to study, or to work in the US after graduation.   That's the strength of the US, the American Dream.    We've lost sight of that....it's now the American Dream for only a small subset of our population (many are going to do worse than their parents, financially, for the first time), and we've also lost sight of all the benefits that immigration can bring.   It's, not coincidentally, one of the major weaknesses of China...diversity of thought/opinion/political and religious belief.

 

 

The focus should be less on the Chinese government and more on education, educational programs and entrepreneurship at home. Biden needs to point this out while Trump rambles on fearmongering about China. Contrary to what 775 says, I couldn’t care less about China compared to what is going on here. We need to focus on the impact of automation and problem solving here instead.

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2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I’m skeptical. Is it just coincidence he announces this hours after Dr. Bright is on 60 Minutes, which Trump live tweeted?

 

His doctor is giving him Skittles and Donald feels much better. 

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