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CentralChamps21

Tired of hearing about how little the Sox hitters strike out

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Sox have the lowest K rate in MLB at 6.25/game.

So what?

It's led to an AVG that's 13th in MLB, an OBP that's 27th, a SLG that's 16th, and a BB rate that's dead last.

Yes, it's a SSS and yes, the Sox have been playing almost exclusively in cold weather that kills fly balls, but the "high contact" approach only works if it produces results other than a low K rate.

Pitching has allowed < 3 runs per game, yet they've had to hold on for three 1-run wins.

Anderson, Burger, Vaughn and Engel are the only guys with > 10 PA and an OBP > .300

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Wow those stats are surprising. For what it’s worth I guess it comes down to scoring runs and the Sox are 15th on that with almost all the others having played a game or two more. Interesting stats though.

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Are low strikeouts and low OBP correlated? 

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Are low strikeouts and low OBP correlated? 

If you don’t work counts and impatiently pull outside pitches to the shortstop all day long then yeah I suppose it could be. I don’t know if that’s the case here but…

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54 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Are low strikeouts and low OBP correlated? 

No, but the point is that low strikeouts and high OBP are not correlated.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, CentralChamps21 said:

No, but the point is that low strikeouts and high OBP are not correlated.

I know that, but I was wondering if low k lead to making more outs. 

I tend to think it does, because strikeout avoidance is generally putting the ball in play early in the count. 

Working counts would generally lead to more strikeout risk. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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55 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

"I'm tired of hearing positive news. I need to complain about something."

Happy Easter, guy.

Low strikeouts is positive news if it helps the offense flourish. Our offense is about average thus far so we shall see if the K rate stays when our offense picks it up. 

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Posted (edited)

Sox have been incredibly unlucky as they're first in baseball in xBA and xSlg but they're 20+ in actuals. They could be a bit more patient but the numbers you're citing don't really jive with their statcast outputs

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sox have been incredibly unlucky as they're first in baseball in xBA and xSlg but they're 20+ in actuals. They could be a bit more patient but the numbers you're citing don't really jive with their statcast outputs

You talking about this: 

 

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7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You talking about this: 

 

I'm talking about those stats, yeah. Not his tweet per-se; don't even know who that is.

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Strikeouts are meaningless outs every time.  A groundout or flyout could be a productive out if it moves runners over or even scores a run.  So, I'm okay with the Sox are not striking out often.

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I'm pro low-strikeouts, personally.

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7 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm pro low-strikeouts, personally.

I'm pro-OBP and I think they're somewhat linked that the fewer strikeouts you make, the more outs you make. 

The whole point of offense is to not make outs. 

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41 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm pro-OBP and I think they're somewhat linked that the fewer strikeouts you make, the more outs you make. 

The whole point of offense is to not make outs. 

You'd have to expect hitters to end up walking more often because they didn't put more balls in play, therefore having a higher OBP.  But to say less strikeouts leads to a lower OBP is assuming a lot.  You're essentially saying more strikeouts leads to a higher OBP.  A higher OBP results from getting on base more often.  That could be from hits or from walks, but to hope that by NOT putting a ball in play you'd have a higher OBP because you might walk is a stretch.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

You'd have to expect hitters to end up walking more often because they didn't put more balls in play, therefore having a higher OBP.  But to say less strikeouts leads to a lower OBP is assuming a lot.  You're essentially saying more strikeouts leads to a higher OBP.  A higher OBP results from getting on base more often.  That could be from hits or from walks, but to hope that by NOT putting a ball in play you'd have a higher OBP because you might walk is a stretch.

A walk is exactly that: Not putting a ball in play. 

The point that I'm making is that by putting the ball in play more often, you might get more hits but the walks are going to plummet as a result. Baseball is hard. Get on base any way you can. It is a rare player that has a low k rate and a high OBP. The deeper you work into counts, the higher the strikeout risk. 
 

I can live with the ks if it means my lineup is making fewer outs overall. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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15 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

You'd have to expect hitters to end up walking more often because they didn't put more balls in play, therefore having a higher OBP.  But to say less strikeouts leads to a lower OBP is assuming a lot.  You're essentially saying more strikeouts leads to a higher OBP.  A higher OBP results from getting on base more often.  That could be from hits or from walks, but to hope that by NOT putting a ball in play you'd have a higher OBP because you might walk is a stretch.

The thing is, a strikeout is always a .000 OBP.  Working a count is one thing, but simply focusing on strikeouts isn't the right focus.

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9 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

You talking about this: 

 

Wow, that’s really impressive. Hopefully these things will even out over the course of the season.

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10 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm pro-OBP and I think they're somewhat linked that the fewer strikeouts you make, the more outs you make

The whole point of offense is to not make outs. 

This isn't really true, an out is an out. A F9, 5-3, and a K all count the same. Sure if you have a guy on 3rd you want a F9 cuz it scores a run, but if you've got a runner on first and hit a ground ball to SS, that 5-3 is now a 5-4-3 and you'd have rather had the K.

That's not to say the way the out happened doesn't matter at all since every hitter has different tendencies, but I remember the days when people would complain about how often Jim Thome struck out when his OBP was like .400. I'd be much more concerned with low walk rates than high strikeout rates (of course the Sox have a glaring exception to this rule with Tim Anderson who always manages a mid-300s OBP despite striking out a fair amount and almost never walking).

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, lostfan said:

This isn't really true, an out is an out. A F9, 5-3, and a K all count the same. Sure if you have a guy on 3rd you want a F9 cuz it scores a run, but if you've got a runner on first and hit a ground ball to SS, that 5-3 is now a 5-4-3 and you'd have rather had the K.

That's not to say the way the out happened doesn't matter at all since every hitter has different tendencies, but I remember the days when people would complain about how often Jim Thome struck out when his OBP was like .400. I'd be much more concerned with low walk rates than high strikeout rates (of course the Sox have a glaring exception to this rule with Tim Anderson who always manages a mid-300s OBP despite striking out a fair amount and almost never walking).

The whole point is that I couldn't give two shits about the Sox low strikeout rate because they're 27th in MLB in team OBP and that matters much more. An out is an out most of the time. Just make fewer of them. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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11 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

A walk is exactly that: Not putting a ball in play. 

The point that I'm making is that by putting the ball in play more often, you might get more hits but the walks are going to plummet as a result. Baseball is hard. Get on base any way you can. It is a rare player that has a low k rate and a high OBP. The deeper you work into counts, the higher the strikeout risk. 
 

I can live with the ks if it means my lineup is making fewer outs overall. 

I don't agree. Yes there are some high strikeout, high walk types like peak adam Dunn but generally about 2/3rd to 3/4 of on base events are hits and the more balls you put in play the higher the chance you get a hit. 

 

Yes, typically the best obp guys are not super low k slap guys who hit 4 homers a year like madrigal because fear of pitchers plays a role too and pitchers will rather throw 3 pitches middle middle than walking a slap hitter but still most of the best obp guys tend to be good average/below average K guys. 

2021 obp leaders/k rate

Juan soto 14.2

Harper 22.4

Vlad 15.8

Freeman 15.4

Reynolds 18.4

Only 6 out of the top30 obp guys had an above average (23.2%) k rate

There are a few exeptions to that who have mediocre average and super high walks but that is rare. 

It is true that you don't want super low k slap guys with minimal power but generally a good k/bb rate is still a good thing. 

I think the sox offense will be good, they also some bad batted ball luck plus the cold weather. 

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The knots people tie themselves in to complain about shit on here never ceases to amaze

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4 hours ago, mqr said:

The knots people tie themselves in to complain about shit on here never ceases to amaze

Excessive analytics is a disease.

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There really shouldn't be a one size fits all approach to hitting.

Guys with good speed and limited power should 100% be focused on putting balls in play and minimizing strikeouts.

Guys with worse speed and better power need to be focused on putting their best swings on hittable pitches. Unless you have Frank Thomas level plate discipline, this is going to result in more swings and misses, but you're going to get full value on your SLG from those swings.

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