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NFL Thread 2020-2021

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24 minutes ago, The Beast said:

While you’re probably right you do know why the Lions got the deal they did, right? Goff’s massive deal offset by the second first round pick.

Watson will command three first rounders at a minimum.

But three 1st rounds picks aren’t overly valuable when the only one in 2021 is #20.  Someone will offer the Texans a top 7 pick plus multiple other first rounders, with a possibility of two this year.  The Dolphins can literally offer Tua, 1.03, & 1.18 and still have two 2nd round picks & a 3rd round pick to invest into their offense and have a full suite of picks after this year.  The Bears can’t come anything close to that unfortunately.

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8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But three 1st rounds picks aren’t overly valuable when the only one in 2021 is #20.  Someone will offer the Texans a top 7 pick plus multiple other first rounders, with a possibility of two this year.  The Dolphins can literally offer Tua, 1.03, & 1.18 and still have two 2nd round picks & a 3rd round pick to invest into their offense and have a full suite of picks after this year.  The Bears can’t come anything close to that unfortunately.

What if those teams decide they'd rather roll the dice with the guy they have or a high pick this year? Save the assets and move from there? 

Not that I'm saying that the Bears still have a shot, but I think that if Watson is traded it's more likely to be to the 49ers or Broncos. Both teams have a relatively high pick and a defense ready to win now, along with a better cap situation than the Bears. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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27 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

What if those teams decide they'd rather roll the dice with the guy they have or a high pick this year? Save the assets and move from there? 

Someone else will still offer more than the Bears though.  We aren’t getting Watson if the best asset we’re giving up is the #20 pick in 2021.

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12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Someone else will still offer more than the Bears though.  We aren’t getting Watson if the best asset we’re giving up is the #20 pick in 2021.

I don't really think the Bears can afford to trade for Watson given that they're coming off of 2 years of having no 1st round pick and simultaneously being in cap hell. It would be one thing if they had a lot of cap space to fill holes but they don't so it's an issue. 

Trading for Watson would only result in the Bears being where the Texans are now in 2-4 years. Especially with the defense aging and entering contract years. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't really think the Bears can afford to trade for Watson given that they're coming off of 2 years of having no 1st round pick and simultaneously being in cap hell. It would be one thing if they had a lot of cap space to fill holes but they don't so it's an issue. 

Trading for Watson would only result in the Bears being where the Texans are now in 2-4 years. Especially with the defense aging and entering contract years. 

I do struggle seeing how we could build around him if we gave up our next three firsts given our aging defense, lack of talent on offense, and shitty cap situation.

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You make that trade and don't look back.  You can build around him because the cap is a fucking myth and always was.   

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How many first round picks will the Rams have traded away.  

Sounds like the 49ers want to go after Kirk Cousins.

If the Bears feel that they will be good.  Giving 3 first round picks is kind of easy to do.  If they suck and are 3 top ten picks that is when it is bad.....like what the Texans did.

If the Texans think the Bears 2022 and 2023  picks will be top ten picks they make the trade.  Would make more sense to pass on the 2021 pick and take Roquan and 2022 & 2023 picks. 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

How many first round picks will the Rams have traded away.  

Sounds like the 49ers want to go after Kirk Cousins.

If the Bears feel that they will be good.  Giving 3 first round picks is kind of easy to do.  If they suck and are 3 top ten picks that is when it is bad.....like what the Texans did.

If the Texans think the Bears 2022 and 2023  picks will be top ten picks they make the trade.  Would make more sense to pass on the 2021 pick and take Roquan and 2022 & 2023 picks. 

 

 

 

More realistically - I think moving up to get Wilson, getting in on a Tua 3 way deal, or getting Jimmy G / Winston - are probably all more likely options.  

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If you hadn't alienated a top 5 QB, Would you rather be:

- The chicago bears, 8-8 with most of their picks, but in no QB and up against the cap

- The Houston Texans, with a top 5 QB, awful defense, poor cap situation and no first round pick this year.

I'd rather be the Texans. You'd just need to hit on one draft and good scheme like the Saints did to be a super bowl contender again. 

The Bears situation does remind me of the Jimmy Butler situation though, or even the 2017 white sox, where you kinda knew what needed to be done but you didn't trust the people in charge to do it. Worked out for the sox, not so much the bulls.

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3 hours ago, bmags said:

If you hadn't alienated a top 5 QB, Would you rather be:

- The chicago bears, 8-8 with most of their picks, but in no QB and up against the cap

- The Houston Texans, with a top 5 QB, awful defense, poor cap situation and no first round pick this year.

I'd rather be the Texans. You'd just need to hit on one draft and good scheme like the Saints did to be a super bowl contender again. 

The Bears situation does remind me of the Jimmy Butler situation though, or even the 2017 white sox, where you kinda knew what needed to be done but you didn't trust the people in charge to do it. Worked out for the sox, not so much the bulls.

Neither is great, but at least the Bears made the playoffs. The Texans are a total dumpster fire, they have no picks and no cap room. Even with that top 5 QB they won 4 games.

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3 hours ago, bmags said:

If you hadn't alienated a top 5 QB, Would you rather be:

- The chicago bears, 8-8 with most of their picks, but in no QB and up against the cap

- The Houston Texans, with a top 5 QB, awful defense, poor cap situation and no first round pick this year.

I'd rather be the Texans. You'd just need to hit on one draft and good scheme like the Saints did to be a super bowl contender again. 

The Bears situation does remind me of the Jimmy Butler situation though, or even the 2017 white sox, where you kinda knew what needed to be done but you didn't trust the people in charge to do it. Worked out for the sox, not so much the bulls.

Do I get to take ownership into account? Because the Texans ownership and FO is like looking at the Bulls FO last year. Caserio's got a good background, and I have zero confidence in him given how that situation evolved.

*Oh, and the Texans also have no 2nd round pick in 2021.

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

 

Do the Bears kick the tires on Mariota?

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5 minutes ago, The Beast said:

Do the Bears kick the tires on Mariota?

Lol the implication is Carr, not Mariota

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6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Well - technically - this isn't saying the Bears are out - this is more just clickbait - which is tied to Biggs reporting today which is the Texans are aggressively telling teams Watson is not on the market. So this has less to do with Bears being out vs. serious doubts around the league whether the Texans are actually going to move Watson.  At this point - it seems like we are going to potentially see a pretty long, drawn out process as it relates to Deshaun.  

And I'm not going to lie - if I were the Texans - before I made a move - I would try 5 times over to reconcile the situation vs. not. This isn't the Jay Cutler in Denver thing where there was no reconciling because the feelings were very clearly mutual (McDaniels didn't want Jay and he didn't want him). In this case - I think the Texans front office and coaching staff very much want Watson - the issue is the owner totally screwed the pooch and I assume Watson isn't going to back down. 

 

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13 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Lol the implication is Carr, not Mariota

Mariotta is not near the athlete he was coming out of Oregon. Injuries have really sapped that plus athleticism that used to exist and as a pure pocket passer he is mediocre at best. Hard pass on Mariotta (unless it is for a back-up type role).  

 

I presume the Bears lists are (and this is in no particular order):

Draft Pick 

Wentz

Winston

Watson

Carr

Garapalo 

Prescott (if there are any snags in Dallas)

Watson 3 Way (Tua/D'Arnold - maybe)

 

Trubisky - at this point would seem off the table. Seems very clear they want to go another direction and take a shot on someone else. Someone else might be better (or worse) than Mitch - but the point is - it is someone else.  There is no one on the above list whom I would totally throw up at the concept of getting - but I would be irate if the team made a play for Teddy Bridgewater.  

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On 1/25/2021 at 11:04 AM, bmags said:

Yes. My bad! Must be an extremely old man brain thing where I just looked in my memory for "two letters sox two numbers" lol

Little late on this, but yes hate is correct.

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Disclaimer: probably bullshit 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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I don't really know what to think.

I thought there was a phrase one time "once shown, twice repeated" with the implication that after you show you can do something once you should be able to do it again with prospects.

But i think I made it up which was sad, because that means it is not based on anything.

When he was great, Wentz was incredible on third down, improvising, feeling the pressure.

But his offensive line then was maybe top 3 in league. Then we saw him behind average to bad olines and he looked like a shell of himself. So is he this bad? Is he a rebound candidate? Is he a mid tier 12-18 QB that is dependent on talent around him? I don't know.

But I just don't know, he looked awful. 

Here is what it could mean for bears

Carson Wentz, PHI, 28

  • Traded before March 19
    $33.8M of dead cap to the Eagles ($853k saved).
    New team acquires a 4 year, $100.4M contract, with cap hits of $25.4M (GTD)/$22M ($15M GTD)/$27M/$26M.
  • Released before March 19
    $59.2M of dead cap to the Eagles ($24.5M lost).
  • Traded between March 20 - June 1
    $43.8M of dead cap to the Eagles ($9.14M lost).
    New team acquires a 4 year, $90.4M contract, with cap hits of $15.4M (GTD)/$22M ($15M GTD)/$27M/$26M.
  • Released between March 20 - June 1
    $74.2M of dead cap to the Eagles ($39.5M lost).
  • Traded after June 1
    $19.2M of 2021 dead cap ($15.4M saved), $24.5M of 2022 dead cap ($6.72M saved) to the Eagles.
    New team acquires a 4 year, $90.4M contract, with cap hits of $15.4M (GTD)/$22M ($15M GTD)/$27M/$26M.
  • Released after June 1
    $49.6M of 2021 dead cap ($15M lost), $24.5M of 2022 dead cap ($67.2M saved) to the Eagles.

Courtesy of spotrac.

So if they have a handshake deal to execute it before March 19th, the bears have essentially a 2 year $47 million deal.

If they have a handshake deal to execute it on March 20th, it's basically a 2 year $30 million deal.

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Disclaimer: I am surprised that his numbers in 2019 were good. I thought the discontent over Wentz started last year. But his Y/A did start to crater that year, so maybe it was the beginning of his gunshy stuff.

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3 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

 

Is he a person worth paying attention to?

Another question to all: Have there been other QBs that fell apart like Wentz did then came back to be their initial selves? I can't really think of any. Matt Hasselback had some down years and up years.

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4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Is he a person worth paying attention to?

Another question to all: Have there been other QBs that fell apart like Wentz did then came back to be their initial selves? I can't really think of any. Matt Hasselback had some down years and up years.

He seemed pretty solid this season when I followed him but I can't recall him breaking anything like this

Wentz's numbers are a lot better than I thought.  If they make this trade they better fucking protect his ass better than they did Cutler

 

22BEDEC5-5CBB-4FE2-BDE4-1A61B56E0144.png

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4 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

He seemed pretty solid this season when I followed him but I can't recall him breaking anything like this

Wentz's numbers are a lot better than I thought.  If they make this trade they better fucking protect his ass better than they did Cutler

 

22BEDEC5-5CBB-4FE2-BDE4-1A61B56E0144.png

I had Wentz in fantasy in 2019. He was consistently mediocre. 

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