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There's way too much "Harper is overrated because of WAR" going on here. We're talking about a guy who, over his last four seasons, has never had an OBP lower than .373. That's not even factoring in his power or the fact that he is just now entering his prime. Diminishing him to "he's just 17 WAR in 6 seasons" is a pretty weak argument to me. If you really think that Travis Shaw and Marcus Semien (higher WAR than Harper in 2018) were better than Harper last year then I don't know what to tell you other than you might want to rely less on WAR.

Why do you guys waste your time on Brett? No one can actually believe this nonsense.

As a hitting anayltics instructor. Very good sign by the sox, I have followed his stuff in the internet for some time and he is very modern and progressive. I do use some of his drills with the players I'm working with too, he is a guy whom I would trust to do swing changes towards the modern elevate style on sox prospects.

FIFY.

Brian Cashman to MLB.com: "I don't think it really matters what we wind up doing, as long as we do well enough that we become the best team in baseball. We're capable of being big-game hunters. We've reset our luxury tax." Be afraid people...be very afraid.

Just a decade ago, one of the ESPN writers (Greenberg) posited that the Cubs and White Sox possessed the exact same local attendance. It was the regional tour groups and those who came from around the country/world due to the historic nature of Wrigley Field (and day baseball, to a lesser extent) that provided the Cubs another 25-35% on top of the local attendees. Not to mention the current disparity in corporate season tickets. When both teams are playing well (let’s say 2003-2008), the local numbers are basically a stalemate. Whether it’s 67/33 or 65/35 or even 60/40...it’s definitely not as lopsided as it appears now because of the dormant or inactive/in hiding Sox fans. You could probably argue the last half decade has shifted it another 5% or so towards the Cubs because of the last decade of kids in the city growing up with all Cubs, all the time...

The going rate for 1 WAR is $9 million. Manny Machado's average season over the last 4 seasons has been worth 5.4 WAR. Should similar results continue, Machado would have to exceed $48.6 million AAV to be a bad deal. Any lower contract would have surplus value.

God I hate everything about this post. I used to really respect your POV Jack but now you’ve just reached Fathom levels of pessimism.

In reality, signing any free agent outside the bargain bin is a poor allocation of resources. All free agent contracts are overpayments by definition. Even these mega deals where you're getting the player for age 27-30 seasons, you have to sign them for 10+ years, and they become a burden over that length. It is no different than any other FA deal, in reality.

How are they poor allocation of financial resources. Sox have a ton of money to spend and less on the books going into the future. Spending money on star players that come along few and far between that are also young is not poor allocation of financial resources. You lock up a roster spot for the foreseeable future. Who's the realistic options. Donaldson who's oft injured and older. Mccutchen or Adam Jones who are getting older and declining.

This is how I feel . I love great defense but to have a great fielder and iffy bat isn't worth what Heyward got or is getting. Give me Harper with his walks his HR power at the Cell and let him loaf, play 1st base whatever. Anything to try to get him back to 1.000 OPS and keep him in the lineup. I want the whale and a studly lefty big bat that gets people on their feet, drops jaws and generates excitement . I want a whale bat hybrid.

Because obviously they’re going to sign Yasiel Puig next year...all the Cubans (after Grandal, whose value was diminished by the postseason)! In all seriousness, Puig in terms of name recognition/marketing and at a much lower price tag is more of a Sox move than Harper. He’s somewhere between Belle and Machado on the character scale. And he would only be 28 next offseason, so that would work as well with the timeline. I’m not sure who else would move the scale. Arenado, maybe. Definitely not Rendon. Paul Goldschmidt, perhaps. We’re obviously not getting Trout. Ohtani would be another due to the Japanese media/marketing. I only mention Puig because he seems 5x or 10x more likely from a “Sox historical perspective” than Harper. He’s closer to the competing in 2020/21 timeline, too. 18.6 fWAR over 6 seasons, average of 3.1, with incredible variance...much like Harper, ranging from 5.1 to 1.1. Also similar to Harper, some of his biggest numbers were in his first couple of seasons in the big leagues. The problem is the last 4 years of Puig gives you a 2.4-2.5 average, but the last two an improved 3.2, which is worth how much to the White Sox? If you eliminate Harper’s 10 fWAR outlier season, he’s just 17.5 fWAR for 6 seasons, which is 1.1 less than Puig’s, actually. And 3 of Harper’s 7 best seasons were in his first four, another troubling sign. Yet Harper will get $400 million...it would seem MUCH wiser to sign the equivalent of 4 Puigs (one veteran starting pitcher, one elite reliever and someone like Grandal.) That way you’re adding 10-12, hopefully 15 fWAR at the same price in terms of total contract dollars as one Harper...and you’re spreading out that risk (or at least mitigating it) across 3-5 guys instead of putting all your eggs in one basket. Even a lineup with Grandal and Puig at $120-150 million should put up the bigger numbers than Harper at $400...and you still have roughly $250 million to play with, Rodon left to trade, maybe Abreu and the #3 pick in the draft.

Biggest concerns with him is his awful defense, with a lot of whispers of him moving to 1b eventually. That’s a ton of money to pay for a 1b in today’s environment. To me, Harper would be a bigger factor in terms of public relations. With that said, I think there’s zero chance he comes to the Sox and risks being on a non-competitive team with a weak fan base.

Exactly. I can't believe how many people on hear are foaming at the mouth over the idea of Harper. He has the ceiling as the best player in baseball each year, but he is not consistent. Pujols and Cabrera were very consistently MVP caliber players when they got their big contracts. Even though he's younger, I do not feel good about the idea of bringing him in for a record breaking contract. If he repeated his performances from 2013-2018 in 2019-2024 would that be worth 40M a year to you all? To me, I don't think I'd be happy with that at 30M a year.

I dig it. Give Rick a call.

Absolutely. I know this is far fetched, but if we woke up tomorrow to the headline, "White Sox sign Harper to record breaking 10 year, $480 million deal", I would be instantly excited. No part of me would be upset that we spent too much.

Agreed. We should already expect them to sign for a fuckload of money anyway.

This right here is the correct take. Whale or bust.

There is realistically no amount of money that would cause me to flip sides. I want a god damn whale.

Yeah, right now, this is the Sox' clearest path to getting a big fish.

Not necessarily. The Phillies will almost certainly get one of Harper or Machado. If they choose Harper, the Sox are left to outbid the Yankees for Machado, which won't happen. But... if the Phillies opt for Machado, the Sox path for Harper would be a little clearer since the Yankees aren't interested. So anything the Sox can do to nudge the Phillies specifically toward Machado could pay off for them in the long run. That said, trading for Santana could open 1B for Hoskins, which opens an OF spot for Harper. So that could be bad. But trading for Franco to open an infield spot could help the cause.

I suppose that it all depends upon what he considers "stupid". Who knows, he might think that our suggestion of $400 Million is not just stupid, but rather Insane. Of course, Sox management hasn't suggested that they would go that far.

I also think it's important to note that he intentionally excluded gun deaths by suicide on the other side of the equation. From Harvard - attempted suicide by gun is effective 82.5% of the time. Drugs and cutting are each effective less than 2% of the time. I will shout from the rooftops about how that stat matters any time someone seeks to exclude those deaths... https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/means-matter/means-matter/case-fatality/

tens of millions? Come on man, in a country of 300 million people, you think 10% or more are saved every year by guns? You can't possibly believe that silliness.

And this is why not getting Martes in July blows. When it is known a player is getting cut if their current team can't trade them they just get cut. Why risk anything from the other 29 teams' perspective?

I was at that game.......Brother Rice has some history of fan "issues" both adults and parents. You think Loyola will make a game of it Saturday?

Maybe they wanted Zunino because he is a really good backstop. Top 1-7 in many defensive categories and pitchers do better with him back there, For a young staff Zunino is a great catcher, Can't hit a lick though.