Look at Ray Ray Run

That 86% is already giving the first inning extra weight and value, and more than exists given the actual run distribution. I'm just using it as an example to say even if you argued the first was the most valuable inning because it has the highest runs scored it's not so much more valuable that using your best pitcher win that inning blindly would make sense. There's too much opportunity cost being wasted in that situation, in the hope of capturing that 14%. Your basically sacrificing the 86% for the 14%. And yes, that 86% is lower as it's unlikely you're going to pull your starter in the 3rd inning (which also might be the highest leverage situation) but the idea remains. Additionally, the order your pitchers pitch really doesn't have an impact on the general run scoring environment (as noted, even if you reduced the runs in the 1st slightly it will come at the cost of runs somewhere else, and while that may result in a slight overall reduction of runs against, it doesn't mean it'll increase wins given the overall leverage/influence. The reason for using them in high leverage situations is that you get more value creation out of those specific outs by reducing the opportunity the other team has to maximize that moment. You can't really predict or dictate when the other team is going to put themselves in their optimal run scoring situation (sometimes it'll even be the 1st!), but you can reserve your best arms usage until a moment that has a higher likelihood of being it than blanketly using them in the 1st inning to cover that possibility. As opportunities decrease throughout the game, the value of an out changes. Lastly as it relates to the below: "I think the part I struggle with the most is that the 86% number is based on how games typically play out with traditional usage." It's not really traditional usage though. This concept holds up whether you use a starter/reliever or you're throwing an elite starter. The first inning is the highest run scoring environment because it's the only inning guaranteed to have the 1-3 hitters all hitting for both teams. In fact, it's more likely that Taylor himself will give up more runs in that inning than other innings. Because this applies to all arms, your general gain isn't more or less significant than it would be in a lesser run scoring inning, as it's all relative to the opposition and general conditions. We can certainly agree to disagree, but appreciate the dialogue.

I think the issue here is this implication that the butterfly effect is only positive. Another huge issue with using him in the 1st is it might be a completely meaningless game. Say Burke gives up 6 in the 2nd or 3rd, now you've used taylor in an unwinnable game. In theory you could end up using Taylor in all games and slots that end up having zero outcome influence. It's just as egregious as bringing him in up or down 8 in the late innings. Which you'd never do. And those 3 outs early, even if they correlated to a slight reduction in total runs against because of the 1st having the highest amount per game, it doesn't mean its how you optimize wins (meaning it has no impact on wins) and a team deploying their best in the highest leverage spots would outperform the former.

I just said that? I showed that there are odds it ends up being the best place, but those odds are much smaller than the odds that it's not. Therefore, it's a bad usage of him. You aren't guaranteeing you don't use him in the most optimal spot, but you're stacking the deck against it. Additionally, the only way for the 1st to turn into a high leverage situation with him starting is for him to create it. Meanwhile, bringing him in up 1 to start the 8th is already high leverage without any situation being created. I'll add, there's a reason no other team in baseball is using their best reliever as an opener and it's not because getz is smarter than them al.

The 1st inning can certainly decide a game, and it's the highest scoring inning. That said, the odds of a given one containing the highest leverage situation in a game are low, meaning the likelihood of it being the situation that most influences the outcome of the game are also low (even if it's high relative to other innings!) So using your best reliever in that spot isn't smart. The beauty of a reliever is you don't have to blindly guess when that moment will be, but by using him there you take your best arm off the board when it's 86%+ likely that the most important moment is not then. This is really just an example of badly applied math, or they want Taylor to have a starter routine before a game.

You can use him against the top of the lineup later in the game. Using your best reliever in the first inning is just bad strategy. There's no way around it.

Makes no sense.

Colson and Murakami. These will be common causes of wins this year.

The point of your best reliever is to use them in the highest leverage scenarios. That is rarely ever going to be the first inning.

The Sox consistently using their best reliever as their opener certainly is a choice...

Only thing worth a damn on the staff.

If you're just looking at last years small MLB sample. His bat speed isn't much different than 2024 or his other measured amounts.

You use an opener to limit the amount of times the top of the order sees the starting pitcher. That is the general purpose, but there are other examples that enhance that possibly as you note.

Yeah, I've jotted down all those taking shots and casting doubt on Antonacci in this thread.

I was joking around, but you bring up a good point in that what a stupid ass rule that is.

More compelling that he's found that power almost exclusively on pulled balls in the air. If he can get to league avg max EV's, with his contact and bat to ball skills he could absolutely become someone like him. His spring results were a big step up (from bottom 5% to the 30-35th%) but he still needs to add more strength and show it over extended period. I'm incredibly bullish.

Complete nonsense. He's a high floor high ceiling player. Unless you think Jose Ramirez is a low ceiling.

He's got to get here soon to assure we get compensation for him winning ROY.

People spend so much time scratching their head at Getz decisions which is odd to me at this point... head scratching usually originates from expectations, which I have none of with Getz.

Somehow we turnover entire rosters time and time again, but still end up with the same play.

I'm not surprised at all, this staff is a disaster. Smith stuff has taken a big step backwards... I'm guessing from the big innings add last year? Not sure, but they should put him on the IL.

Just getting those early season jitters out of the way Schiff told me!

Career high in swings and misses for junk tonight. Not a great trend so far for the offense.

Getz is on the case!

Not sure if directed at me, but I sadly just turned the game on in the 4th after putting the kids to bed. But yes, I'm frustrated that we're pitching fedde at all.

I said the same. Bottom 3.