Autumn Dreamin

Brazoban joins Hicks as a Sox pen arm with an elite barrel%

Adell debuts for them tonight, batting 2nd

FWIW this is also some of what Quero is going through. He had 0 passed balls and a .996 fielding% as a rookie last year, and then they had him change his set up with the goal of improving framing results and his blocking has suffered as a result.

PIT post game guy apparently thinks he's just out of shape lol He does look somewhat thicker, though the yeti and St. Bernard comparisons seem a bit much...

Pretty crucial week ahead with the Guards playing the depleted Mets (and the Twins playing KC) while we finish off our last AL East series, but a series win vs. the Guards at home this weekend would do a lot of good regardless. Worth noting that getting through the two series against the Yanks and Rays (with a winning record even!) did notably drop the Sox remaining schedule strength. It's now the ~5th easiest in MLB (Cleveland still easiest, Twins ~9th). Getting through Boston should drop it further. Only games remaining vs. teams with more wins than them currently are the Crosstown and makeup game vs. ATL. At 7 over today, even playing ~.500 ball should have the Sox reasonably well positioned as long as they hold their own in the remaining divisional matchups. Guards/Twins would have to get closer to .580-.600 to get to 7+ over from where they are. Just don't help them out.

Cantillo has a lower FIP/xERA, so I'd probably slot Griffin in behind him as marginally better than Bibee? Just think I'd rather them have 2 months of a 31yo rental than see whatever they would have turned Dion into. He's had a pretty unlucky high BABIP (.385) and low strand rate (62%), but his K/9 and expected FIP/ERA are impressive. Their new bats will probably have more impact, especially while they wait for JRam to get going again. They have 10 losses when allowing 2 or fewer runs, T-most in MLB with the Mets.

I wanted them to improve the current roster's biggest weaknesses and they did. I didn't want them to borrow too much too quickly from the future of a team that's arriving early and they didn't. Feels like SEA should have gotten Smith OR the Sox eating all of the money rather than both, but I've read that Smith had real approach concerns despite the flashy AA numbers so I get selling high if they see him as future LF/DH on a hot streak rather than a real C prospect. SEA was unlikely to eat all or even most of the contract and take Dominguez, so whatever I guess...Basically turned Houser + money into Luis Castillo (and Joey Bart), fine. Rather them flash a willingness to spend than add another/bigger name to get the dollars down. If Castillo gives them just Fedde-quality pitching but for 6-7 innings/start instead of 4-5, that's a healthy number of BP bullets saved down the stretch plus some playoff experience when/if they get to the dance. Any Fedde/Houser/Cueto/etc. style vet resurgence is obviously a plus. Watching the rest of the SP market play out probably made me higher on the deal. The pen, which has been solid as is, should be improved with the lower workload and Brazoban/Fedde replacing Ser and Schweitzer/Murphy. Don't love the Doyle deal, but more for the cost than the player. If he's a more reliable defender with a marginally better approach than Pereira, that could be helpful (though I find Pereira's hard contact and high motor intriguing to dream on). I'm also an Adams fan, who hates for his sake that he'll have to pitch at Coors (and it feels fated that we'll see him in that September series vs. COL...) I have other quibbles on the edges; I would have kept Quero up over Romo, and would have liked to see them resolve the Hays/Grichuk redundancy proactively. But not much overall that feels like something I'll look back on in two months with any real agitation. Overall happy that Getz didn't seem to force anything and very relieved they didn't try to get too cute in dealing from the current group. Could they have swung a bigger name with a top 10 prospect or two? Maybe, but it's not the time. Could you have done some kind of MLB for MLB moves with Newcomb expiring, Meidroth playing at a position of strength, etc.? Probably, but Getz talked about valuing and respecting the mojo the group has going, and I'm glad he stuck to that. The acquisitions having control gives flexibility to redirect them as/if needed. The Bonemers, Carlsons, McDougals, and Smiths of the org are more likely to have ceiling raising impact (and a team better positioned to capitalize on it) in 2027 and beyond compared to overpaying for the "bigger" names available this week, especially the rentals. And of course there's also the other bigger picture, where the deadline discussions that most expected a few months ago would have centered on whether a contender might come calling for Davis Martin instead of where the SP you acquired would slot in next to him in a potential playoff rotation...hard for me not to grade on a bit of a curve for even being here, especially when I'm not convinced there were realistic "A+" moves (from my perspective) available. TLDR: I'm content making some mostly floor moves to help this core start to figure out their ceiling. They're early, but they've earned a shot at the postseason, and they've got one. They took the offseason as a vote of confidence and can take this deadline as another. But any magic this year was always going to be up to those core guys rather than some mythical deadline savior coming in to make them a WS favorite, so I'm glad Getz rounded up some horses rather than go unicorn hunting.

In his starts (excluding the piggybacks) since May 15 he's at a 3.65 ERA. Exclude his start getting lit up vs. the Dodgers last week and it's 2.97. Probably some park factors and luck involved, but I do think he'll pitch better than his season numbers when back in a comfortable role (and perhaps a better clubhouse environment).

I expect him to be pretty helpful for the M's pen actually. Think this trade will do both arms some good mentally in getting away from situations where they were getting pushed out of the roles they were "supposed to" have coming into the season. Ser can go over there and be a fine 7th inning guy instead of a shaky closer, Castillo can come here and start normally instead of being put in uncomfortable piggyback spots.

Pereira and Doyle both have the same 13.3% walk rate vs. LHP in the majors this season (small samples for both). EP K's a lot more (40% vs. 27%) while having a lower barrel% and hard hit% but better surface numbers. His .462 BABIP, a 90 point gap between his actual and expected wOBA, and a 30%+ HR/FB rate vs lefties suggests there's room for some regression in those numbers. In a weird coincidence, both guys have 43 ABs overall in AAA this year so at least their small sample sizes are easily comparable: Doyle: 17-43 with 5 2B, 2 HR, 8 BB and 19K Pereira: 10-43 with 1 2B, 4 HR, 6 BB, 15K Don't know enough about Doyle to speculate on if he made some changes while rehabbing at AAA, but he was super productive in his most recent stint there to end July: 10 for 21 with 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4K. (Pereira was 4-25 with 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 10 K in his rehab stint around the same time). Pereira obviously took a bit to get going until his great day yesterday (2-11 since returning with 1 2B/HR, 0 BB, 7K) Doyle hasn't been back up as long but is 2 for 6 with a 2B, BB, and 2 K in two games. If they buy into the flashes with the bat and really believe in Doyle as a plus defender, it could work out. One assumes that must be the case given the cost. Hope they're right (though I also hope EP sneaks through waivers anyway). Wish the kid had options, this would bug me less if it was like a Junior Perez DFA instead.

Romero says it's because of the option situation, but Romo should still have options remaining I thought?

Eh...well they better get healthy soon I guess.

Very content with not getting into bidding wars for rentals. Dion is major league ready with a lower FIP and higher K% than Griffin, and he's not even the best arm in the deal. Guards are deep with arms so you'd have to try to beat their quantity with quality, and I wouldn't be aiming to do that for this year.

No one taking a flyer on LRJ?

The Trop's funky roof might not be the best environment to judge him on that though

Not really moved by the Guards getting a solid arm, they always have those.

Pereira is the corresponding DFA apparently, which I think is dumb.

If NYY was on Bart too, then yeah I'm guessing the Reds' ask is high

Wow, Boston really emptying out the prospect cupboards

I think they would be hoping he accepts it

Insane how well most of their offseason moves worked out (and Varland last deadline) just for the preexisting core guys to fall off. They desperately need a fix for Vlad Jr or that contract is a killer...