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Everything posted by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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Thanks . I know Navarro is not a particularly good catcher. If he was hitting well we'd probably hear less about his framing abilities or lack thereof. Because pitch framing is a thing the more casual fan will see a strike called a ball and auto- assume it's on the catcher now and that is not always the case.
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QUOTE (michelangelosmonkey @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 01:25 PM) I think people are too pessimistic here. Since 2005 the World Series has been won four times with teams with dominant starting pitching (Sox and the Giants three times). The Mets gave a black eye to the Cubs because dominant starting pitching can beat dominant hitting. The White Sox had no choice to follow the path they are one because the stumbled upon Quintana, Sale became one of the best pitchers of all time, and they got lucky drafting Rodon. Now they look like they may have gotten lucky getting Fulmer as well. I'm not saying it WILL happen...but lets say in 2017 Rodon improves to Quintana level and Fulmer starts and is Rodon 2015...and James Shields or Gonzalez pitches the way they have in July. You will all agree the defense is WAY better this year than it was last year. You have Austin Jackson and the two catchers done after this year which frees up $11 million in salary (along with adam Laroches $12 million already in your pocket). You resign Frazier (I'm fine with a good fielding 3b who hits 40 home runs but only hits .220) and then sign Lucroy (still need a catcher as Collins is probably a few years away). Why is that not one of the best teams in baseball...or at least a team that can get into the playoffs and then throw four aces into every round of the playoffs? The idea of trading for prospects is exciting as potential is so tantalizing but 2015 #2 BA prospect was Byron Buxton who has a .580 OPS after his first 300 MLB at bats. We need to be patient...building a championship is a long process and I think we have come a long way in three years. You make a lot of sense. I have struggled with the idea of a tear down also. I'll post about which organizations would be a good fit to trade Sale or Q but then turn around and say if Hahn had signed Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler , guys that were easily obtainable late in the off season how good is this team then ? Or perhaps Daniel Murphy who as a 30 year old signed just a 3 year deal with the Nats( not some mega 6 year deal) and is having a career year. He's that LH middle of the order power bat we needed, Fowler the OBP and speed in CF we needed. Desmond also a cheap signing for depth who ends up getting his career back on track could have played SS which the Sox also needed or DH'd or converted to OF like the Nats did with him. Things could have gone much better this year. You add those guys and Rollins isn't signed, Avi spends the year in the minors, Sands isn't on the roster. Do I expect Hahn and the boys to make perfect moves ? No but I expect them to be better than they have been. They have to remember too much talent isn't a bad thing.
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QUOTE (SI1020 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 10:37 AM) Excellent post. Whether one agrees or not it is definitely worth a read and you deserve credit for an in depth analysis when attentions spans get shorter and shorter. I bolded the part I especially agreed with. A few years ago I sent baseball-reference.com a lengthy note expressing my misgivings with sabermetrics, doing my best to give chapter and verse on specific examples and areas of disagreement. This was after noting that they had completely revised their pitching WAR and D WAR stats, pitching WAR at least twice. In reply I was given a terse condescending reply and I learned my lesson. Don't try to debate this as you're dealing with the fervor of fundamental religion. I dislike sabermetrics and especially despise defensive metrics. I will look at OWAR and Pitching WAR but don't give defensive WAR the time of day. As for pitch framing stats I'm not even going there. That being said, as one poster has mentioned Navarro has made me miss Tyler Flowers who ironically was rated to be among the best at framing pitches. In any case, that is way down the list of what I expect and hope for in a catcher. Regarding the pitches in question I am on the fence as to whether Navarro could have done a better job at helping Robertson, who needed all the help he could get in that inning. Again, thanks for a noble attempt at taking the debate to a higher level. Thank you for reading it. I spent a lot of time writing it and watching the pitches I mentioned in slo mo frame by frame on my DVR. I know I rub people the wrong way with constant questioning of pitch framing. I could've wrote even more citing others who question it, not just laymen like me but the same kind of guys who came up with it in the 1st place. But then again others rub me the wrong way by constantly referring to pitch framing as if it is the end all be all of what's important in a quality catcher. Even fangraphs had a more recent article about the better framers stats getting worse because umps are wising up. I could have pointed out that the curveball was out of vogue for a while when the split finger pitch came into vogue and part of the reason was because it's just a very difficult pitch to call right. I have been a keen observer of baseball for many years and even before pitch framing became a thing I thought umps were very poor calling pitches strikes that end up in the strike zone but miss their spot. It's just lazy umpiring focusing on where catchers set up more than on the strike zone itself and the height of each batter to establish that zone . Again thank you for your kind words.
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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 10:09 AM) Just a small addendum. Sale's 2019 option has already risen to $15 million due to a clause in his contract that was triggered by his 3rd place Cy Young finish two years ago. If he wins a Cy Young in the next 3 seasons that option jumps to $16 million. Quintana has the same clause in his contract as well. Thanks. Guess they didn't update the details of his contract on his Baseball Reference page.
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QUOTE (Deadpool @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 10:03 AM) I loathe comparing teams across sports, but White Sox ownership needs to do essentially what the Bears did. Fire the Vice President down, hire an expert baseball mind to help comb the league for a touted assistant GM in a winning organization. Someone like LaRussa ? He made the biggest disaster trade of the last decade. Well that's hybebole because it depends on how all the youth he gave up does in the future. But he sure didn't imagine Shelby Miller going back to the minors this year .
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What to do at the Trade Deadline
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to GGajewski18's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 09:04 AM) Hopefully whatever they do from this point forward is with 2019 and beyond in mind. Punt on 2016-2018 as far as winning because it's not happening either way. Get a pool of young talent, get high draft picks and smart international signings the next few years, and be in a position for sustained winning at least by 2020. If that means trading both Sale and Quintana right now, do it. It doesn't mean they have to trade them now, but Sale and Quintana are never pitching in the playoffs for the Sox. If/when they get a proposal that makes sense, move them and anyone else that isn't going to be part of the 2020 team. Unclear what you mean by smart international signings. If you are signing 16/17yr olds its really difficult to project their futures. The Sox have never shown an interest in the top guys . If you are talking about the older guys. Look at Gourriel. He's 32 and the Astro's gave him 5/$45M . The Astros !! Nothing very smart about that but I use it as an example of how you pretty much have to make dumb offers for int'l talent . If you are talking about Koreans the Sox haven't been in that market at all and someone like Kang who opened the door to more Koreans is just another miss Hahn and Co. failed to recognize. Sox haven't had a Japanese player in ages. -
QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 06:19 PM) I'm with you and daggins. The right haul for Sale should bring back enough talent to help the team now and in the future while keeping Q to head the rotation. That Kings Ransom they talked about is what I might expect with Sale having 1 year of control left. He's got 3. I want 6 guys , 2 for each year of control because you know damn well 3 will flop and maybe 2 of the remaining 3 become good ballplayers . Odds of getting a superstar are very low.
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QUOTE (GoGoSox2k2 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 06:34 AM) Very Interesting to see if anything happens by mid-afternoon today. WSD on twitter yesterday said he expected we will know a lot more by mid-afternoon today. Just wondering if he expects a deal to be done around then due to players involved for the timeline or if he thinks he will be allowed to say what he knows from his source. either way I will be on twitter and in this thread all day refreshing haha whitesoxdave @barstoolWSD 15h15 hours ago I do think we'll know a lot more tomorrow by mid-afternoon Don't know if WSD is media savvy or just a guy with a friend in a position of know but that's called a teaser. Keeps you tuning in , just strings you along and if he doesn't say anything by mid afternoon today he gives you a new date. But you will keep tuning in .
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I know the Sox lost but it has always seemed unfair in a game like this that the visitors got 7 innings to score their runs while the Sox got only 6. I wouldn't call a rained out game like this a home field advantage.
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 11:30 AM) I don't think anyone has replied to this yet, but let's answer this and I'm going to use Danks's number exactly. Assuming the options are picked up, Sale has $40 million over the next 3 years on his deal. If you tried to offer him 5/$60, you'd be asking him to commit to the following 2 seasons at $10 million per. Fair market value for those 2 years as of right now is >$30 million. If you offered Sale 5/$110 right now, while tearing up his deal as of the start of the offseason, he should still turn it down because he's a $200 million contract pitcher right now. After this year, Jose Quintana has 4 years and ~$37 million remaining on his deal (some things kick in depending on where his arb status would have been). Offering him 5/$60 is adding 1 year at $23 million to his deal. I'd do that if he would and I think it would be silly for him to do that. He'll be 31 when his current contract ends, so if you start talking about adding >$25 million value seasons onto the end, that would be a sensible thing for him to accept. I do wonder if we'll ever see a team that has a "Sale-like" pitcher start offering to just add $35 million guaranteed seasons onto that guy's contract one at a time every year he stays healthy to see what happens. Keeps FA multiple years away and loads up that contract more gradually. That would be a contract innovation I'd contribute. With Sale if healthy his last 3 years are $12M, $12.5M , and $13.5M = 38. I threw out 4/60-75 but you changed it to 5 /60. So actually if it was 4/75 he could have a gradual salary increase from $13.5M in the last year of his current deal 2019 to ,$15M in 2020, $17.5M in 2021, $20M in 2022, and $23M in 2022. I know that is still a vast underpay but if you signed him to that fairly soon that guarantees the money for age 31-34 seasons when there is still 7 more years ( 3 on current contract 4 on my proposed one) to have an injury. Just as before you trade the security of a guaranteed payday for the risk of injury and or sudden decline. So you would also have to fix the numbers for Q.
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QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 11:27 AM) Pirates going after Q is my dark horse team. Have some great prospect depth, headed by nice trade chips in Glasnow and Bell. Pirates supposedly called the Yankees about Eovaldi. Problem with Pirates is they know their future revolves around their kids so making a huge splash where they trade them isn't likely. They want a controllable pitcher but they won't pay up for a stud.
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 11:36 AM) Someone posted the Pirates the other day and after trying to write about why it wouldn't work I talked myself into thinking they have the means to get it done. The problem is on both sides though. Fair payment for one of these guys is their top 3 prospects (taillon, Glasnow, Meadows, plus their catching prospect) and the Pirates aren't going to give up both pitchers plus meadows in the same deal and I don't care who its for...and the White Sox aren't going to move these guys. That would be me, the "someone posted the Pirates the other day".
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What to do at the Trade Deadline
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to GGajewski18's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 07:17 AM) To be fair to Hahn, I don't know that he's really missed on anyone other than Laroche and his $1-$3 million utility players. But he hasn't hit any home runs either. Duke is okay - had one really good year but he's pitching to his ability Robertson is a tad disappointing- not a difference maker but usually good for the save Melky was terrible last year, but this year he's been good....not unlike his prior few up/down seasons Frazier is hitting his homers Lawrie's been better than he was at Oak or Toronto; which isn't to say he's great, but acceptable. Samardzija was disappointing but actually pitched to his career averages Shields is settling down. Laroche, of course, was an abomination on several levels Bonificio, Beckham, Rollins, Turner and several others were bad uses of resources. Particularly Beckham, Rollins and Bonifacio The problem is that those "pretty good" players weren't enough to resurrect a 73 win team to playoff contention. Had he gotten luck and hit a few homers, then perhaps things would be different. But you can't plan on luck. The other problem is that there was an opportunity cost to acquiring those decent veterans. Different players could have been acquired, the prospects could have been used for different players, and some of the prospects are proving to be good plaeyrs, with 6 years of control. The good news is that the vets aren't terrible and they could be peddling for some interesting young players. Misses just aren't guys you sign but suck they are also guys you could've had fairly cheaply late in the off season but didn't sign. Also most would consider Samardzija a huge miss considering how he performed and what we gave up for him. -
QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Jul 20, 2016 -> 11:36 PM) I am getting indications that the #WhiteSox may be re-considering their stance of being "non-sellers" in the coming weeks https://twitter.com/barstoolWSD/status/755925692064358400 I won't name teams/players yet but have gotten semi-specific details https://twitter.com/barstoolWSD/status/755926096881868800 If they had reconsidered their stance of not firing Robin perhaps they wouldn't have had to reconsider their stance of being non sellers. They do a lot of considering but take no action.
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What to do at the Trade Deadline
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to GGajewski18's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Footlongcomiskeydog @ Jul 20, 2016 -> 06:24 PM) The Sox will sit on their hands and do nothing at the deadline just like last year. Remember that this is year 2 of some sort of 3 year plan. The Sox will try to retool again this offseason. This exact time next year we will be having this same conversation as the Sox again hover around 500. Stuck in baseball hell just like the other team that Jerry owns is stuck in basketball hell. It always make me wonder if Hahn would just got some hits instead of misses on his moves things could've been much different. Off the top of my head if they had gone after Fowler, Desmond and Daniel Murphy or even Murphy along with either Fowler or Desmond . Re tooling isn't a bad idea it's just bad when you have so many misses especially misses that ended up being fairly cheap moves the kind the Sox should to be good at since that's all they do. -
QUOTE (knightni @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 05:57 AM) I don't see how any team can give fair value for either of them. Both are under very friendly contracts and neither are in their prime years yet. I don't think that you should trade them at all. You've got Sale, Q, Rodon, Fulmer right now. You're set for pitching for the next 4-5 years. How many other teams can say that? True enough. You need a Shelby Miller type return and possibly more since I highly doubt Sale or Q ends up pitching like Miller did and then gets sent back to the minors. The only thing I'd disagree with you on is that these are their prime years. When you pitch like they have they last 3 years and have never gone under the knife I don't see how their futures can get much better than their present .
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I say the Sox should try to extend Sale and Q again. See if they would take Danks type money. I know that would be a HUGE underpayment but another 4 years for each for $60-75M with no-trade options would be great. It would be a long shot but they have both seen what happened to Danks and they have to see all the Tommy Johns going on. Maybe they bite.
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I hate Lind.
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Great start from our number 5 . If only this team could hit , the starting pitching has looked pretty good lately.
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Saladino celebrating his 27th birthday in style with a very nice 3 for 3 against the rusty King.
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Time to bet the under in the Seattle series
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to sin city sox fan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (hi8is @ Jul 20, 2016 -> 01:32 PM) Inform my ignorance please... What does "2 dimes" equate to in non-badass-slang-lingo? 20 cents -
QUOTE (Dunt @ Jul 20, 2016 -> 01:56 PM) Abreu needs to sit for a day or two. Can Morneau play the field or is he strictly a DH now? He can field since he was in the NL the last few years.
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Way to hit with 2 strikes Morneau !
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Frazier goes yard. 3 run bomb after King griped about the 4th ball to Morneau.
