Eminor3rd

Jfc that was unreadable. How to turn 400 words into 2500 words.

While you're right that the starters have more consistent baseline talent, it was a stroke of pure luck that the Sox got through the season without substantial injuries to their staff last year, and not much less than pure luck that they got 150 innings and 4+ fWAR out of Rodon. You can't bank on that happening again -- especially with the questions marks with Keuchel's performance and Kopech's ability to handle a full year of a starter's workload. Falling off to Lopez and then... whatever comes after Lopez *shudder* will hurt MUCH more than a couple dead spots in the lineup. Even though a couple dead spots in the lineup do definitely hurt.

Post-hype change of scenery candidates are great as depth, less great when plugged directly into a contending lineup. I’m not sure he’s better than Adam Engel. But it’s good to have more actual outfielders on the roster?

I think you’re spot on that they don’t want a short-term deal, that it would be a 3-5 year deal or nothing. And I imagine they know that they’re in a great position to make it happen. I really just think they already spent their money for this year. The payroll is a new record. I think they already decided they’re okay going into OD like this. The only run gthat would change that, IMO, is moving Kimbrel’s salary.

Again, developing a great bullpen is not the same thing as what the White Sox have been doing. Greg Holland and Joakim Soria were developed internally. Wade Davis was acquired as a second piece in the James Shields trade and was a still a starter at the time — and the Royals even still tried him as a starter for a year before converting him to a reliever. The Royals were adding strength and depth to their rotation, and the strong bullpen followed.

The Brewers and Rays did not "emphasize" relief pitching -- they happened to develop a great deal of it, which is a by-product of developing great pitching in general. The last team to "emphasize" relief pitching the way the Sox have -- by spending a great deal of resources (in both money and players, in our case) acquiring veteran relievers at the peak of their value -- was the Rockies, the consensus laughingstock of the MLB, and it very much did NOT work. And that wasn't surprising, because everyone knows that relief pitcher performance is the most volatile of any position on the diamond, by a lot. I think Vaughn is going to hit well, too. The problem with Vaughn is that he's a first baseman, not a right fielder. Engel is a good RF, but he can't hit well. So every night you have to choose a player who can only play well consistently on one side of the ball. Now, what if you had someone who could do both instead? I would call that putting the team in a much better position to win. I think Hahn has pulled us into an illusory universe where he's chained to having certain players on his roster. His explanation for not acquiring a RF has alluded to needing to find at-bats for Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets. But... neither of those players are right fielders. Any other team, when finding themselves in possession of a logjam of interesting MLB-ready prospects in a single position would TRADE one or more of those players to shore up a position they actually needed. Similarly, not signing a RF because Cespedes and/or Colas might be ready in a year or two is nonsense -- the team also just lost a 4+ fWAR pitching season from Carlos Rodon that it hasn't replaced. If you now have a logjam in RF, why not trade a prospect for a pitcher? Your call for financial prudence is sound, but let's engage in a counter-factual: Actual WS offseason, in 2022-only dollars committed: 1. Leury Garcia ($5.5M) 2. Josh Harrison ($5.5M) 3. Kendall Graveman ($7M) 4. Joe Kelly ($8.5M) 5. Vince Velasquez ($3M) TOTAL: $29.5M What if, instead: 1. Michael Conforto ($25M) 2. Romy Gonzalez (FREE) 3. Danny Mendick (FREE) TOTAL: $25M Now, you can trade Gavin Sheets for a controllable back-end starter. Or Andrew Vaughn for an excellent to elite starter, or an excellent to elite second baseman. If Cespedes/Colas forces the issue, imagine trading one of THEM for a controllable starter or second baseman, maybe even packing two of those players together to go even bigger. Would that team not be in a much better position to win? With Abreu/Eloy/whoever is left from Vaughn/Sheets/Burger rotating in DH/1B/LF to help them all stay healthy and not requiring them to play out of position? With a real full-time RF in the other corner? Now, imagine you gave Rodon the QO instead of exercising Kimbrel's option. Suddenly you have pitching depth, possibly a lot of it! And it didn't cost ANY more money than what they've done instead. Is the upgrade from Romy/Mendick to Leury/Harrison worth the alternative?

This is a lot of straw man arguments. No one is suggesting that the Sox should push all in for short term gains. No one is suggesting that good bullpens aren’t important, we ARE suggesting that top bullpens very rarely seem like they’ll be top bullpens going into the season, and so blowing resources trying to build one (particularly when ignoring bigger needs) is a clearly bad strategy. No one is suggesting anything remotely close to trading for a Dexter Fowler bad contract, lmao. No one ever thought the Edwin Jackson contract was a good idea, even for a moment. This White Sox DID spend a bunch of money, they just didn’t get anything that they needed with it. ”Conforto over Vaughn/Engel does NOT put us in a ‘much better position to win’” is a bizarre statement. I’d love to hear you support that. It’s a dogshit offseason, man. It doesn’t make you a bad fan to admit that, and admitting it doesn’t mean you aren’t allowed to root for the team still.

“Being excited about the team” and “being happy about the offseason” are not the same thing. It is possible to BOTH (1) feel that the team is in a good position to win, and (2) feel that the FO squandered opportunities to put it in a much better position to win. You just have to be able to hold a couple different thoughts in your head at the same time.

There’s only one Rockies

Ok that’s definitely a bit higher than 5/70. I guess I wasn’t all that close, haha.

I was pretty close! Obviously a ton of risk with a signing like this, but this is the safest Japanese hitter to come over since Matsui. Hard to hate the idea of taking a similar gamble that we took on Abreu.

He's a true RF who could fake CF. Elite arm. Unproven in MLB as a hitter, though, true. I'm an NPB fanboi, but It's not unreasonable at all to scout him properly and conclude he isn't worth the risk. However, given that the Sox haven't been seriously involved in any NPB player since Tanaka, and it seems that a lot of other teams are liking what they're seeing with Suzuki -- I think there's a good chance they just didn't allocate the resources to be involved in the first place. If so, that's tough to swallow only because they needed a RF so badly. You hope they at least did the due diligence.

Lmao touche

Lol I don't understand the meta-commentary on board mood. What is the point of discussion if you're discouraged for expressing your actual opinion?

Right, at this point, it isn’t even fair to accuse the Sox of being cheap. They’ve spent the money, they’ve made the trades — the problem is that the last 6-7 transactions they’ve made range from ugly to completely indefensible, even in the moments right after they were made. It’s not that they aren’t trying, they’re just fucking it up. They’ve rushed to “beat the market” and spent money on free agents they didn’t need, when there were reams of better players available that played positions at hey DID need. Whenever a normal team has a logjam of MLB-ready prospects at a position, they trade them to fill holes elsewhere — the white Sox have instead decided that they have to keep them all and just play them out of position. It’s brutal to watch. Yes, the team is really good but it could be SO much better and it would have required nothing even remotely clever.

The Sox have committed $26.5M to their already record-high payroll without addressing any of their roster needs. They’re connected to no significant players in the media. They have the worst farm system in baseball from which to make trades. It would be irrational to be happy with their offseason at this point. If they pull off a substantial addition given their current situation, it will rightfully be shocking.

This is the issue: relievers are the most volatile performance bets on a year to year basis, by a lot. It isn’t clear if they’ll be better — it’s nearly just as likely that the poor performers you were excited about going into last year will bounce back. There’s a very good reason that zero franchises spend their offseason budget nearly exclusively on relievers. The last team to do it was the historically inept Rockies, and they were laughed at when it happened and again when it didn’t work out for them.

Already blew his load treading water, signing a couple utility infielders and a couple relievers

I think, unfortunately, you may need a bidding war. Doesn’t look like they’re going to address the RF or SP problem with cash at this point.

Good depth piece flyer. I like these types of pickups, but I fear the Sox tend to see them as reliable solutions instead of insurance policies with upside.

It's absolutely silly to only consider last year's OPS when projecting performance. Hernandez is three years younger and has been a better, healthier, and more consistent player throughout his career. I don't think there's a massive difference between the two of them for 2022, but we chose the older and riskier option.

I don't know why you didn't just pick up Hernandez's option instead. Obviously dude had a rough year but who is really more likely to be better in 2022?

You mean more veteran RPs

Yeah, I just don't get this. More RPs is always a good thing, but there's just no rational argument that this money shouldn't be spent on an impact bat or starter. Scratching my head here just like with Graveman.

His point though is that it isn’t a pure lottery ticket as you’re describing it — you can do analysis on peripheral indicators that will give you more information about whether or not you’re making a good bet. The trade can still turn out either way, for sure, but that doesn’t mean the odds were equal. Shields was a CLEARLY bad bet — coming off a year where his FIP was more than a run lower than his ERA despite those numbers tracking identically for the rest of his career, and IIRC having an even bigger disparity so far in the season leading up to the trade — and it was frustrating and embarrassing at the the time because the White Sox seemed to be the only ones that didn’t know it, making them look unsophisticated. Chris’s Bassitt is 34, but how do his peripherals look? I’m not gonna take a deep dive (and it may be that there ARE some problematic signs), but just glancing at his FIP tells a much different story than shields at the time.