PECOTA predicts Sox finish 4th in AL Central

[tray]

Yes, no Sale every fifth game and no Eaton.

But..there are a few things that make the team better in some respects than it was last year.

No Danks, No Matt Latos, No Matt Albers, a better option at SS to start the season than Jimmy Rollins, a better option at second base with Moncada, possibly a better clubhouse attitude without Sale and Eaton, and a much better Manager than Robin Ventura.

A Closer other than Robertson might be another plus considering the key games he blew that really helped to turn the season around.

 

It is too early to make any predictions though. We will have a better idea during Spring Training, don't you think?

 

The Sox have question marks but I am not ready to predict last place out of 30 teams yet.

 

[southsider2k5]

Yes, no Sale every fifth game and no Eaton.

But..there are a few things that make the team better in some respects than it was last year.

No Danks, No Matt Latos, No Matt Albers, a better option at SS to start the season than Jimmy Rollins, a better option at second base with Moncada, possibly a better clubhouse attitude without Sale and Eaton, and a much better Manager than Robin Ventura.

A Closer other than Robertson might be another plus considering the key games he blew that really helped to turn the season around.

 

It is too early to make any predictions though. We will have a better idea during Spring Training, don't you think?

 

The Sox have question marks but I am not ready to predict last place out of 30 teams yet.

 

This team is also going to be worse at Catcher as well. 2B is going to be essentially the same thing as it was last year, until at least mid season. No help there. Sure you might see a rebound out of someone, but you are just as likely to see a falloff out of someone else.

 

Instead of Danks and Latos, we have Shields for a full season, Dylan Covey and Derrick Holland. Not seeing any help there. I could see a rebound out of a guy like Robertson, but the middle to back of the pen wasn't pretty last year, and won't be pretty this year either. This is a pen that finished the year with a middle of the pack ERA out of the pen. It wasn't a good pen, it was an average pen. This is a pen that has lost Zack Duke, Matt Albers, and Tommy Kahnle to start with. Now middle innings will be concentrating to guys like Michael Ynoa, Tyler Danish, and Chris Beck.

[Balta1701]

Yes, no Sale every fifth game and no Eaton.

But..there are a few things that make the team better in some respects than it was last year.

No Danks, No Matt Latos, No Matt Albers, a better option at SS to start the season than Jimmy Rollins, a better option at second base with Moncada, possibly a better clubhouse attitude without Sale and Eaton, and a much better Manager than Robin Ventura.

A Closer other than Robertson might be another plus considering the key games he blew that really helped to turn the season around.

 

It is too early to make any predictions though. We will have a better idea during Spring Training, don't you think?

 

The Sox have question marks but I am not ready to predict last place out of 30 teams yet.

No Danks or Latos, but James Shields and Derek Holland, Yoan Moncada may not even see the big leagues this season so that's still Lawrie until he is hurt or traded, Robertson will still be closing until dealt.

[Thad Bosley]

Yes, no Sale every fifth game and no Eaton.

But..there are a few things that make the team better in some respects than it was last year.

No Danks, No Matt Latos, No Matt Albers, a better option at SS to start the season than Jimmy Rollins, a better option at second base with Moncada, possibly a better clubhouse attitude without Sale and Eaton, and a much better Manager than Robin Ventura.

A Closer other than Robertson might be another plus considering the key games he blew that really helped to turn the season around.

 

It is too early to make any predictions though. We will have a better idea during Spring Training, don't you think?

 

The Sox have question marks but I am not ready to predict last place out of 30 teams yet.

You've identified all of the subtractions, but you haven't quite hit the mark on the additions to fill the holes left by the subtractions that back up your assertion that the team will be better than last year.

[turnin' two]

The Twins won 59 games last season. What exactly have they done to get better?

The Padres and Reds won 68 games, and again, haven't gotten any better.

Brewers won 73, and haven't gotten any better.

 

The Sox have to be pretty bad to get that first pick. To me it is more of a difference than Quintana alone can make.

 

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

The Twins won 59 games last season. What exactly have they done to get better?

The Padres and Reds won 68 games, and again, haven't gotten any better.

Brewers won 73, and haven't gotten any better.

 

The Sox have to be pretty bad to get that first pick. To me it is more of a difference than Quintana alone can make.

A full year of Shields, no Eaton, no Sale...we can give them a fight if Q is dealt.

[witesoxfan]

The Twins won 59 games last season. What exactly have they done to get better?

The Padres and Reds won 68 games, and again, haven't gotten any better.

Brewers won 73, and haven't gotten any better.

 

The Sox have to be pretty bad to get that first pick. To me it is more of a difference than Quintana alone can make.

 

I agree with your conclusion, but the Twins won 83 games in 2015. What was the difference between 2015 and 2016 that cost them 24 games?

 

Wild variance can occur in baseball. Odds are very good that the Sox will be a bad team next year, and that they will have a top 5 or 10 pick, and that they'll get a guy who will be very, very talented. The Cubs currently have the best foundation of major league talent in the league, and they never had the first overall pick throughout the course of their rebuild. The more important factor is drafting the right player.

[tray]

You've identified all of the subtractions, but you haven't quite hit the mark on the additions to fill the holes left by the subtractions that back up your assertion that the team will be better than last year.

 

That wasn't my assertion. I said it will be better in some respects.

 

I think Moncada will be up before the AllStar break and possibly before that.

I also think that a catching tandem of Soto and Narvaez will not be much worse than what we had last season.

 

I didn't mention Center Field but Austin Jackson was injured early so we might be better off with Charlie Tilson and Bourjous or whoever else makes the roster as a 4th outfielder.

 

The other thing to look at it the competition in the Central. Cleveland is still heavily favored but KC might not be as good (with the notable loss a lock-down Closer) and Minnesota is not looking very strong. Detroit looks like they don't know which way they are going and may start trading off some of their star players.

 

It's all just too early to predict right now, only to guess. So Shields fails. I doubt the Sox keep throwing him out there. They will make a move for another starter or bring someone up for his spot. Renteria is a better Manager than Ventura and that will make a huge difference. Many of these guys were asleep last season.

Edited February 8, 2017 by miracleon35th

[tray]

If Frazier stays, I think he will hit for a better average, especially with RISP. I looked at an interview with him on CSN and he indicated that he will try to hit to Right Field more.

He was hurt by teams shifting on him as were other power hitters around the league. Defensive shifting has become a science now and Frazier knows he has to make adjustments to beat it.

If he does that * I think * he can increase his RBI substantially, even if he doesn't hit 40 HR.

 

[chetkincaid]

I think the Sox will be a lot better than many of you think. While I don't think they'll sniff the playoffs, I think they'll be in the middle of the pack. I think we're underestimating the difference Renteria will make. He'll be a big improvement over Robin Ventura.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

If Frazier stays, I think he will hit for a better average, especially with RISP. I looked at an interview with him on CSN and he indicated that he will try to hit to Right Field more.

He was hurt by teams shifting on him as were other power hitters around the league. Defensive shifting has become a science now and Frazier knows he has to make adjustments to beat it.

If he does that * I think * he can increase his RBI substantially, even if he doesn't hit 40 HR.

His adjustment might - might - last one time around the league. Then pitchers will start jamming him, he'll get frustrated, and go back "to what always worked for me in the past".

Not that I dislike the guy. I just don't believe what guys say in the offseason.

[elrockinMT]

Why would you believe this prediction in February and never believe a prediction for a winning season,? I don't get wrapped up in this stuff

[spiderman]

I declare....2017, as the...Year of the White Sox!

[Special K]

2017 will, of course, be the year when the Team finally will over perform.

[hi8is]

USA Today has them pegged at 4th in the Central as well, with a 68 - 94 record. Good for the 4th pick in 2018. Three losses behind the worst record projected to be held by the Padres and two losses away from second to worst and tied Twins / Reds.

[greg775]

I wonder what the worst record in franchise history is. I think we'll be right around the worst team in Sox history this year and next. Next year will probably be the low water mark of the rebuild.

I'd say 59 wins? Then maybe 57 the following year?

[greg775]

I think the Sox will be a lot better than many of you think. While I don't think they'll sniff the playoffs, I think they'll be in the middle of the pack. I think we're underestimating the difference Renteria will make. He'll be a big improvement over Robin Ventura.

Yes but Hahn may make some more trades in the next week or so. I wonder why he couldn't move Q, Robertson, Frazier, Lawrie, Melky, Nate Jones yet??

[spiderman]

2017 will, of course, be the year when the Team finally will over perform.

 

Yep, watch them over perform, and still be under .500

[chitownsportsfan]

His adjustment might - might - last one time around the league. Then pitchers will start jamming him, he'll get frustrated, and go back "to what always worked for me in the past".

Not that I dislike the guy. I just don't believe what guys say in the offseason.

 

exactly.

[Leonard Zelig]

I wonder what the worst record in franchise history is. I think we'll be right around the worst team in Sox history this year and next. Next year will probably be the low water mark of the rebuild.

I'd say 59 wins? Then maybe 57 the following year?

 

1932 49-102-1 .325 winning %

Edited February 8, 2017 by Leonard Zelig

[GreenSox]

Sure the Sox could win 77 games if Holland/Shields/Gonzalez each pitch to an ERA, say, of 4 or a little less, the bullpen is a little sturdier (which it actually should be), Anderson gets better offensively et al....AND if Hahn halts the tear down of the team.

 

But tear-down should be priority 1 (and 2, 3, 4, 5....) this season. If after a couple of months, Holland/Shields/Gonzalez are pitching with ERAs below 4 and decent peripherals, Hahn should be moving these players ASAP (not to mention Frazier, Melky, Robertson, et al).

 

Teams like the Phillies and Brewers and Braves should be improving because they have basically completed the tear-down phase of their rebuild. Their young players will be called up and they should be getting better.

 

Until the tear-down is finished, Moncada et al shouldn't be anywhere near the major league team. Maybe Burdi, but only if the intent is to flip him. Williams and Hahn are just going to have to suppress their instincts re moving players up. Otherwise, the Sox will be in the same position in 2019 that they were in 2016.

 

And on a side note, they need to be willing to eat salary when disposing of players, or this is not a serious effort at rebuilding.

Edited February 8, 2017 by GreenSox

[Balta1701]

Sure the Sox could win 77 games if Holland/Shields/Gonzalez each pitch to an ERA, say, of 4 or a little less, the bullpen is a little sturdier (which it actually should be), Anderson gets better offensively et al....AND if Hahn halts the tear down of the team.

If those guys pitch that well, then we're going to pick up 4-5 minor league players at the trade deadline and be relieved of Shields's contract. That's pretty good right there. Try to stock up the lower levels of the minors and 1 or 2 of those guys might break out in a few years - that's literally one of the things that worked for Cleveland.

[Lip Man 1]

I wonder what the worst record in franchise history is. I think we'll be right around the worst team in Sox history this year and next. Next year will probably be the low water mark of the rebuild.

I'd say 59 wins? Then maybe 57 the following year?

 

In 1970 the Sox went 56-106, most losses ever in a season and they drew 495,000 fans for it. Had three managers that season.

 

Mark

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

In 1970 the Sox went 56-106, most losses ever in a season and they drew 495,000 fans for it. Had three managers that season.

 

Mark

Don Gutteridge shouldn't count.

[ptatc]

His adjustment might - might - last one time around the league. Then pitchers will start jamming him, he'll get frustrated, and go back "to what always worked for me in the past".

Not that I dislike the guy. I just don't believe what guys say in the offseason.

In one time around the league, he will learn and understand the tendencies of the entire pitching staff and get comfortable in all the different ballparks? most hitters will tell it takes the first year before getting comfortable with the change. This usually shows for most hitters.