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6/5- Sox at Twins doubleheader, 3:10


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Star Date, Late August, 2016

 

Lucas Giolito threw 98 miles per hour during two scoreless innings in the 2015 Futures Game, and the baseball world nodded in unsurprised approval. Everyone knew about the 6-6 right-hander, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, with an elite fastball and uncommon curveball. Everyone expected the mid-to-high-90s fastball they got from him that day.

A season later, as he made his fourth major league start Sunday against the Rockies, he never broke 95. Murmurs began. Tweets flew. What happened to 98? After four up-and-down outings in his first major league opportunities, is something wrong with the 22-year-old? Cue prospect paranoia. Then dial it down.

Multiple rival evaluators familiar with the Nationals’ minor league system expressed no concern about Giolito’s velocity whatsoever. One scout said the numbers he had on Gioito put the righty’s average fastball velocity at 94.7 during the 2015 minor league season. According to BrooksBaseball, his release speed was 94.8 in his first big league start, 94.2 on Sunday. FanGraphs lists his average fastball velocity this season at 93.6 — though it lists his two-seam fastball velocity at 94.9. Two-seamers are not generally thrown harder than four-seamers, and Giolito does not throw a two-seamer often, if at all, so perhaps a few pitches that might have affected the numbers were misidentified by the Pitch F/X system Fangraphs uses. Maybe not.

Either way, most prospect scouting reports prior to this season list Giolito as having a mid-90s fastball, sitting 93-96. He pitched to the lower part of that range Sunday, and is now averaging 93.6 in his four major league outings — just behind Sammy Solis for the eighth-highest average fastball velocity on the Nationals this season.

Would you be surprised to learn that Blake Treinen, touted regularly here and elsewhere for his high-90s sinker that seems to always hit 98 on stadium scoreboards, averages 95.3? Or that Felipe Rivero, who hit 100 now and then, only averaged 95.3? The point those rival scouts made, and one worth considering, is that the top fastball velocities often morph into prospect epithets. Average fastball velocities say more.

“There’s the hype element of all this that gets a lot of play. If you look at the starters and where they pitch, 93, 94 really has been where he’s been,” Nationals Director of Player Development Mark Scialabba said. “…with Lucas, he went through the Tommy John process, came back, rehabbed, and at times he was upper 90s, touched 100.”

“As he went through the full season and pitching every fifth day, you’re going through the grind and the throwing program, the velocity is going to regress a bit to a level that’s more comfortable for him. Will his velocity improve? I can’t say exactly. But 93,94, pitching at that level is something that does fit where he’s been the last couple years in the minor leagues. He’s pitched 96, 97 at times. So is it alarming? I wouldn’t say that at this point. It’s something that’s consistent with his past.”

Giolito’s velocity was about half a mile per hour slower on Sunday than it had been at times this season — something to watch, nothing to cause panic — and that velocity was not the problem, he explained later.

“I can pitch at 93 if I’m hitting my spots and mixing up well,” Giolito said afterward. “I think I left way too many fastballs up over the middle of the plate. Those are the ones that got hit pretty hard, so the velocity I don’t think is a huge deal as long as I’m pitching the way I should be pitching, which I didn’t do.”

Indeed, the numbers show that the problem for Giolito in his small major league sample is not so much how hard he is throwing his fastball, but rather how often. Max Scherzer’s fastball is averaging 94.3 miles per hour this season, according to FanGraphs. He is throwing it 56 percent of the time, in a mix with 20 percent sliders, 12 percent change-ups, and eight percent curveballs. Stephen Strasburg is averaging 94.9 miles per hour with his fastball, using it 57.1 percent of the time, in a mix with 17 percent sliders, 13 percent curveballs, and 12 percent change-ups.

Giolito, on the other hand, is throwing 73.8 percent fastballs, 17 percent curveballs, and nine percent change-ups. His mix is not as varied, nor as consistent yet. When he mixed pitches Sunday, he got outs. When he threw consecutive fastballs to Nolan Arenado — including an 0-2 one over the plate — he got hit. Honing command of his fastball has been, and remains, an important developmental focus for Giolito — and Scialabba would not rule out an increase in velocity as the 22-year-old grows into his frame. He is, after all, just 22, and as pitchers sharpen mechanics and establish increased consistency with their delivery, confidence and velocity can follow. In the meantime, establishing command of that plus-curveball and consistency with his change-up seem like the rookie’s more pressing developmental necessities.

“The change-up wasn’t as good today as I would’ve liked it to be. It’s been a lot better in the past, and the only thing I can do is continue to trust it and keep throwing it,” Giolito said Sunday. “I think a couple change-ups I threw today were pretty good, and then a couple not-so-good ones. But I got to keep working on throwing everything for strikes.”

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2016/08/29/should-anyone-be-concerned-about-lucas-giolitos-velocity/?utm_term=.b64b8852a280

Edited by caulfield12
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14 minutes ago, elrockinMT said:

Strike outs are over rated. Pitch to the bat and get the outs that way. Six innings and giving up two runs is pretty good in my book. More important is the fact there are only two walks allowed 

No point in arguing this with some. Unless a guy is instantly amazing you may as well give up on him.

Despite the negativity, Gio can definitely be effective if he can harness his control just a bit more. 

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Just now, soxfan49 said:

Good enough. Still not much swing-and-miss stuff but he didn’t walk the entire lineup or groove a bunch of heaters

Yeah, I saw only 2 BB's. Which is probably the biggest thing, so that's a plus. 

His lack of swings/misses continues to be head-scratching to me. Perhaps he's being told to forget about the K's and pitch to contact until he figures the control out? I don't know. 

At the end of the day, he needed a quality outing. So, this is a positive.

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1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

How much more can you simplify his delivery?  He's got one of the simplest deliveries out there.   Is Gio good any other sports?  Like is he coordinated at all?  He seems like a really stiff, unathletic guy.

It really appears it's his balance. He loses it to the gloves side which makes him fly open.

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If they blow this game it will be reason #1,723,688 why I fucking hate the Twins. The Sox and Twins are going to be battling for the division for most of the next decade, they can't let those fuckers get in their head like they did 15 years ago. There is no team in baseball I hate more than the Twins, and yes, that includes the Chicago National League Ballclub. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

If they blow this game it will be reason #1,723,688 why I fucking hate the Twins. The Sox and Twins are going to be battling for the division for most of the next decade, they can't let those fuckers get in their head like they did 15 years ago. There is no team I hate more than the Twins, and yes, that includes the Chicago National League Ballclub. 

I am with you 100%.. those Lew Ford days had me raging

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