Just now, hogan873 said:

Abreu is a proven star, I'll agree with that.  And if some of these prospects end up producing like him, they will be successes.  I believe what most are getting at is that Abreu is producing very well right now and has been since he put on a Sox jersey.  But how will he be in the projected competing years (2020-2022, and beyond)?  Personally, I'd be all for extending him through 2022 for $17-$20 million a year.  By then, though, he's most likely be primarily a DH.

I think a big part of any extension would be an agreement on his DH/1B splits as he ages.  If Jose wants to stay in Chicago he should be open to becoming a full time DH and only playing 1B once or twice a week.

2 hours ago, soxfan49 said:

But will be a star in 2020-2022?

If he needs to be a star, then the rebuild is already screwed.  In 20-22 if Abreu is a good competent hitter at DH, who can give you .275-22-80, it would be huge.  At that point in time, if Moncada and Eloy aren't the star hitters, being supplemented by Collins, Robert, and another of the OFers, the Sox will already be in trouble.  I wouldn't be surprised if he was still a really good hitter at that point, but he should be at a 5 hitter or so on how that team should be projected.

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Given Jose's place in the Sox' history (as a Cuban, as a Latin ambassador for fans and players) I'd like to see him stick around, but it's not an easy decision.

This getting rid of guys before they are too old is only a new modern stat-lover phenomenon you realize? Even the end of Paulie's career was not like this. He got lousy; he retired. Now all people do is project how anybody over 30, 32 is going to age. Even if the person is a star at 32, there is serious concern about ensuing seasons. It used to be if you were a star at 32, fans would relax and applaud, applaud applaud the player every year. Now it's a serious concern that we're better off getting rid of him lest he age poorly. Of course the same Sox fans who are worried sick about Abreu aging and want to get rid of him in lieu of giving him a big-buck contract think some other team is going to sign him to that big-buck contract. So some teams are worried to death about age and others are not? What a sick sports world we now live in. If he's a star at 32 let him continue being a star and if you waste money on him, so be it. The White Sox owners are raking in $$$$s.

10 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

If he needs to be a star, then the rebuild is already screwed.  In 20-22 if Abreu is a good competent hitter at DH, who can give you .275-22-80, it would be huge.  At that point in time, if Moncada and Eloy aren't the star hitters, being supplemented by Collins, Robert, and another of the OFers, the Sox will already be in trouble.  I wouldn't be surprised if he was still a really good hitter at that point, but he should be at a 5 hitter or so on how that team should be projected.

I feel like you just made a pretty good case that at least on field, Jose Abreu is completely fungible come 20-22.

8 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I feel like you just made a pretty good case that at least on field, Jose Abreu is completely fungible come 20-22.

Yeah, the Sox have had no problem finding guys like that.  Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Brett Lawrie ... on and on and on.  When was the last guy from out of the organization the Sox just signed that performed even close to that level?  Dye?  I could be forgetting someone...

And how much are you spending for that?  I don't think he is nearly as easily replaced as that.  

Edited June 11, 20187 yr by turnin' two

4 minutes ago, greg775 said:

This getting rid of guys before they are too old is only a new modern stat-lover phenomenon you realize? Even the end of Paulie's career was not like this. He got lousy; he retired. Now all people do is project how anybody over 30, 32 is going to age. Even if the person is a star at 32, there is serious concern about ensuing seasons. It used to be if you were a star at 32, fans would relax and applaud, applaud applaud the player every year. Now it's a serious concern that we're better off getting rid of him lest he age poorly. Of course the same Sox fans who are worried sick about Abreu aging and want to get rid of him in lieu of giving him a big-buck contract think some other team is going to sign him to that big-buck contract. So some teams are worried to death about age and others are not? What a sick sports world we now live in. If he's a star at 32 let him continue being a star and if you waste money on him, so be it. The White Sox owners are raking in $$$$s.

It blows my mind that someone that witnessed the Adam Dunn signing (signed at 31 coming off a bWAR of 2.5 and a 260/356/536 slash line) and then proceeded to put up NEGATIVE .9 bWAR (including a -2.9bWAR at age 31) in his time with the Sox wouldn't be worried about a corner slugger aging poorly.

Come on.  I'm not in the camp that thinks he'll age badly, but all players age and giving guaranteed money to any player after 31 should make fans at least a little nervous.

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm sorta inclined to think like @southsider2k5 that his hit tool will age rather gracefully but at the same time he'll be even more pigeonholed as a slugging DH and if he loses power, he's going to have a hard time getting to 3-4 WAR on hit tool alone.

Given Jose's place in the Sox' history (as a Cuban, as a Latin ambassador for fans and players) I'd like to see him stick around, but it's not an easy decision.

Given that it the hit tool is Abreu's carrying tool, and he just happens to be really strong, I think he will carry a fair amount of power too as he ages.  He doesn't generate power with an obnoxious long swing, or anything like that.  If anything I think he is probably sacrificing 40+ homer power now, in a trade off for being a better contact hitter.  It is just with his strength his contact swings can go a long way.  I think he could also go the Frank Thomas (as he got into his mid 30's) route and if he wanted to sell out average and contact for power, it is there.

32 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Yeah, cmon.  It is totally easy to produce .300 -30-100 every single year.  That is why everyone does it.  

Your arbitrary use of archaic stats doesn't help your case

26 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Your arbitrary use of archaic stats doesn't help your case

Well then maybe we should just sign 9 .300/30/100 players on short one year deals and use our prospects to push them out as they develop.  

 

Once Gavin Sheets develops into his natural .330/50/150 in two years, he will be able to replace Abreu’s middling .300/30/100.  

 

Same for all positions.  Once Robert starts popping off .350/45/125s in a year or two, we can easily trade the .300/30/100 STOPGAP center fielder we signed for a below market one year deal.  Maybe get a top 150 prospect if we’re lucky, but probably not because those guys are everywhere.  

 

Almost every player is flawed somehow man.  

47 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Your arbitrary use of archaic stats doesn't help your case

Your arbitrary use of nothing but an opinion doesn't help yours.

Edited June 11, 20187 yr by turnin' two

2 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Your arbitrary use of nothing but an opinion doesn't help yours.

I'm throwing wRC+ your way and you come back at me with BA and RBIs to make your point? C'mon man...

1 minute ago, Hot FiRe said:

I'm throwing wRC+ your way and you come back at me with BA and RBIs to make your point? C'mon man...

This is implying that going by wRC+ makes Abreu look bad.

5 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

This is implying that going by wRC+ makes Abreu look bad.

I mean he is 27th in all of baseball in RC+, and leading all AL 1B's in it.  What a suck.

4 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

I'm throwing wRC+ your way and you come back at me with BA and RBIs to make your point? C'mon man...

Weren't your numbers wrong -- honestly I didn't check them but I saw someone else corrected them?  And I saw you conveniently left off last season, when he was top 4th in wRC+.  Oh, and this year where he is 5th.  The numbers are all connected.  When whatever numbers you use show a guy can hit, he can hit.  Jose Abreu can hit.  He is among the best, and most consistent hitters at the position that houses some of the best hitters.  

On 6/8/2018 at 12:09 AM, Hot FiRe said:

Spot on. Thank you for the honest assessment. Decent player, works hard all the time to get better. By no means elite. Sorry to the hysterical fans like Dam. 

Willie Stargell, a Hall of Famer, was a lousy defensive first baseman who, over a 162 game average in his career, hit .282 with 33 homers and 106 RBIs.  Jose Abreu's current average over 162 games is a .300 batting average with 32 dingers and 107 RBIs.  Obviously Stargell played in the Majors a lot longer than Jose has or will, but it seems like their style of play is similar, and last I looked, a Hall of Famer was considered "elite".  So I think it's fair to say Jose is significantly above that of just a "decent player".   

Edited June 11, 20187 yr by Fan O'Faust

The game is different now. It's always been as long as you can hit the gas, you can play forever. It wasn't bad when guys were throwing 90-92. Now that its ticked up significantly, once you hit 32 or 33, most guys are in trouble. 

2 hours ago, turnin' two said:

If he needs to be a star, then the rebuild is already screwed.  In 20-22 if Abreu is a good competent hitter at DH, who can give you .275-22-80, it would be huge.  At that point in time, if Moncada and Eloy aren't the star hitters, being supplemented by Collins, Robert, and another of the OFers, the Sox will already be in trouble.  I wouldn't be surprised if he was still a really good hitter at that point, but he should be at a 5 hitter or so on how that team should be projected.

That's not the argument. He doesn't have to be a star, but paying him like a star if he's merely a shadow of what he used to be would not be smart business.

On 6/5/2018 at 11:39 PM, hi8is said:

Yea, it’s imparitive to this team that they win and figure out production on both sides of the ball right now.

Jose could work more on making his core stronger and more flexible. He has a bit of a doughboy look. I think we are used to his D by now but he could do better. When Ricky is done hitting flies to Polka he can hit grounders to Abreu. This is all so new. 

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

The game is different now. It's always been as long as you can hit the gas, you can play forever. It wasn't bad when guys were throwing 90-92. Now that its ticked up significantly, once you hit 32 or 33, most guys are in trouble. 

Extending Abreu will all come down to asking price. If he's going to agree to a relative hometown discount then I think a deal can be worked out. If he wants retail market value then I think we let him walk. Hahn should be smart enough not to pay retail for a mid 30's slugger in today's mlb. 

24 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

That's not the argument. He doesn't have to be a star, but paying him like a star if he's merely a shadow of what he used to be would not be smart business.

Who you have to step in, is also part of the equation.  I am not advocating paying him like Harper or Machado.  But the guy can hit.  And will likely continue to hit for several more years.  Not at 4/25, but if you are talking 4/18 or so, that starts to make some sense.  

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

Extending Abreu will all come down to asking price. If he's going to agree to a relative hometown discount then I think a deal can be worked out. If he wants retail market value then I think we let him walk. Hahn should be smart enough not to pay retail for a mid 30's slugger in today's mlb. 

Why would any team pay retail for a mid 30s slugger in today's mlb? Are the Sox the only 'smart' team in baseball? If everybody shares these same concerns about aging players, what would make a team pay 4/25 for an old guy like Abreu? He's 4 years 15 mill a year, case closed. He ain't getting more than that in today's environment. Again ... Sox fans on here demand we pay no more than that (that's probably even too much money for most on here right?) so what team is gonna give him 20 mill a year for 4-5 years?? That's apparently not what teams do nowadays. 4 years, 15 mill a year, finish it now.

3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Why would any team pay retail for a mid 30s slugger in today's mlb? Are the Sox the only 'smart' team in baseball? If everybody shares these same concerns about aging players, what would make a team pay 4/25 for an old guy like Abreu? He's 4 years 15 mill a year, case closed. He ain't getting more than that in today's environment. Again ... Sox fans on here demand we pay no more than that (that's probably even too much money for most on here right?) so what team is gonna give him 20 mill a year for 4-5 years?? That's apparently not what teams do nowadays. 4 years, 15 mill a year, finish it now.

You saw it this off-season.  Teams are very smart now with positionional scarcity.  Aging corner sluggers are not valued that highly, and why should they be when guys like Palka and Davidson    are usually available at league min?

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You saw it this off-season.  Teams are very smart now with positionional scarcity.  Aging corner sluggers are not valued that highly, and why should they be when guys like Palka and Davidson    are usually available at league min?

Yep. So wouldn't you agree he's worth 15 mill a year for 4 years? If anybody wants to pay more than that, shake his hand and say, "Thanx for the memories." I guess you could add a year as long as it's not more than 15 a year.

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You saw it this off-season.  Teams are very smart now with positionional scarcity.  Aging corner sluggers are not valued that highly, and why should they be when guys like Palka and Davidson    are usually available at league min?

Are guys like Palka and Davidson as good as Abreu?  If you are a team on the brink, trying to win the WS, the difference between what a veteran hitter provides, and a league minimum flyer, can be pretty significant.