Sox looking for LH OF, LH 2B, and SP

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

If the Sox had a solid manager last year instead of TLR, how many more games do you think they would have won?

Several. I’m not sure, I doubt it is enough to keep up with Cleveland.

Zips did what it often does. It underestimated the 2020/2021 White Sox - why? Because it underestimates teams loaded with young players. Cleveland was the youngest team in the league, of course it underestimated them.

Similarly, the biggest misses for Zips were Grandal and Lynn. Why? Because it doesn’t project cliffs for guys in their 30s, it gives slow dropoff projections for them but in reality guys in their 30s sometimes hit cliffs due to injury.

The gap is narrower with a competent manager, but this roster isn’t a well built one.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

No, But Abreu putting up 4 wins rather than the projected 1.9, Cease putting up 4.4 rather than 3.2, Cueto putting up 2.3 rather than 0, Kimbrel putting up 0 rather than being a part of the bullpen makes up a whole lot of that ground. 

When you count only the guys who underperformed and then ignore the guys who over performed you miss the important part of the story.

And lumping Leury into that to make the difference look bigger when anyone else in the league would have benched him? Hilarity.

I think your CPU may have finally malfunctioned.  You said those two plus Cueto offset all our underperformance last year, which is an absolutely absurd take.  I focused on our positional group because that is where the bulk of underperformance happened.  If you want to include Abreu that’s fine, but his two extra wins would be more than offset by Sheets & Engel coming in at 0.0 WAR vs. the 2.3 ZiPS had projected for them.  No matter how you slice this, the offense underachieved by a good 10 wins or more.

As for the pitching, yes Cease outperformed his ZiPS projection by 1.4 wins.  Add Ceuto’s 2.4 wins vs. a replacement player and we’re at 3.8 wins.  Meanwhile, Lynn, Giolito, & Kopech were projected for 8.1 WAR and only put up 4.7, which is a 3.4 delta.  So net on net, we’re nearly even there and we haven’t even accounted for Keuchel projected to be a 1.8 win pitcher getting DFAed after putting -0.3 WAR through eight starts.  Overall, I think it’s fair to say the rotation was slightly below expectations even with Cueto and VV/Davis pitching well in their roles.

To summarize, this team massively underperformed last year and I don’t know how any sentient life form could argue otherwise.  I mean, there isn’t anything to even debate here when the numbers are so clear cut.

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This team somehow managed to get an all star level 2 months from Elvis Andrus and a borderline all star 4 months out of Johnny Cueto and a solid season out of Seby Zavala, which basically offset nearly all the injuries on the roster, and somehow people still say "Everything went wrong."

Want an "Everything went wrong"? Imagine that team with Cueto and Andrus not available. Not hard to believe, Andrus will never put up that 2 month stretch again and Cueto won't be available 2 days before spring training ends this year. Or imagine all that, and at the same time Abreu hurt and missing - which is exactly where they are right now. 

It's not insurmountable, but this is a gigantic hill. 

What CWS and SSK said. This doesn’t add up at all. But yeah, if your base assumption is 2023 will be similar for Robert, Moncada, TA, Eloy, Grandal, Giolito, Lynn, etc., as 2022, yeah they’re gonna be not great again. 

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think your CPU may have finally malfunctioned.  You said those two plus Cueto offset all our underperformance last year, which is an absolutely absurd take.  I focused on our positional group because that is where the bulk of underperformance happened.  If you want to include Abreu that’s fine, but his two extra wins would be more than offset by Sheets & Engel coming in at 0.0 WAR vs. the 2.3 ZiPS had projected for them.  No matter how you slice this, the offense underachieved by a good 10 wins or more.

As for the pitching, yes Cease outperformed his ZiPS projection by 1.4 wins.  Add Ceuto’s 2.4 wins vs. a replacement player and we’re at 3.8 wins.  Meanwhile, Lynn, Giolito, & Kopech were projected for 8.1 WAR and only put up 4.7, which is a 3.4 delta.  So net on net, we’re nearly even there and we haven’t even accounted for Keuchel projected to be a 1.8 win pitcher getting DFAed after putting -0.3 WAR through eight starts.  Overall, I think it’s fair to say the rotation was slightly below expectations even with Cueto and VV/Davis pitching well in their roles.

To summarize, this team massively underperformed last year and I don’t know how any sentient life form could argue otherwise.  I mean, there isn’t anything to even debate here when the numbers are so clear cut.

No, I said those guys nearly offset all the injuries. Go back and read the text. I can link the post with the math if you want.

They then underperformed last year on top of that because of drop offs by a couple key guys in their 30s, because it turned out that Vaughn and Sheets weren’t good outfielders and because their coach did insane things like playing Leury that much. But overall, they just weren’t that good, and they’re worse now. A lot worse.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

What CWS and SSK said. This doesn’t add up at all. But yeah, if your base assumption is 2023 will be similar for Robert, Moncada, TA, Eloy, Grandal, Giolito, Lynn, etc., as 2022, yeah they’re gonna be not great again. 

And this is what I mean when I say you’re making the really unlikely assumption that somehow everything will go right next year. Everyone succeeds, no one has a bad year, no one gets hurt, and maybe they catch Cleveland as long as they get worse next year. Not impossible, but way more unlikely than you want to admit.

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Several. I’m not sure, I doubt it is enough to keep up with Cleveland.

Zips did what it often does. It underestimated the 2020/2021 White Sox - why? Because it underestimates teams loaded with young players. Cleveland was the youngest team in the league, of course it underestimated them.

Similarly, the biggest misses for Zips were Grandal and Lynn. Why? Because it doesn’t project cliffs for guys in their 30s, it gives slow dropoff projections for them but in reality guys in their 30s sometimes hit cliffs due to injury.

The gap is narrower with a competent manager, but this roster isn’t a well built one.

Lynn wasn’t even close to being the second largest miss:

• Grandal -4.3 (33)
• Giolito -2.3 (28)
• Moncada -2.3 (27)
• Kuechel -2.1 (34)
• Garcia -1.6 (31)
• Vaughn -1.5 (24)
• Engel -1.3 (30)
• Robert -1.1 (25)
• Sheets -1.0 (26)
• Anderson -0.8 (29)
• Lynn -0.7 (35) (he still exceeded his projected FIP by 0.35 points)

Very weird you’re making up numbers now.  There’s literally six guys in their 20’s who underperformed more than Lance last year.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lynn wasn’t even close to being the second largest miss:

• Grandal -4.3 (33)
• Giolito -2.3 (28)
• Moncada -2.3 (27)
• Kuechel -2.1 (34)
• Garcia -1.6 (31)
• Vaughn -1.5 (24)
• Engel -1.3 (30)
• Robert -1.1 (25)
• Sheets -1.0 (26)
• Anderson -0.8 (29)
• Lynn -0.7 (35) (he still exceeded his projected FIP by 0.35 points)

Very weird you’re making up numbers now.  There’s literally six guys in their 20’s who underperformed more than Lance last year.

Lance Lynn zips projected 3.2 WAR.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/
Lance Lynn by Fangraphs 1.9 WAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lance-lynn/2520/stats?position=P

I will wait until you can tell me how that comes out to a 0.7 difference. Since you accused me of making up numbers.

But then an issue - bWAR only puts Lynn at 0.8 WAR. So what is the difference, is B-R blaming him more for defense? Or is he just a dropoff of 2.4 WAR?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And this is what I mean when I say you’re making the really unlikely assumption that somehow everything will go right next year. Everyone succeeds, no one has a bad year, no one gets hurt, and maybe they catch Cleveland as long as they get worse next year. Not impossible, but way more unlikely than you want to admit.

There are three major factors you continue to overlook.  First is Tony La Russa as our manager.  His presence or lack thereof created an environment that fostered underperformance.  It may be impossible to quantify, but there is no doubt in my mind that he brought the worst out in players.

Second, is Frank “f*** the HR” Menechino.  That dude had guys selling out power for a contact heavy approach, which is the exact opposite of what works in our stadium as evident by us getting out homered at home 98 to 77 (~27%).  And it’s not like our team lacks raw power.  We went into every game with a horrible offensive strategy relative to modern baseball consensus.

Finally, and probably most overlooked, is the fact we could not communicate with our players during the off-season because of the lockout.  I think the Sox have been beyond the times a bit when it comes to strength & conditioning, but their new Director did not even get a chance to put in place off-season programs for his guys.  That will change this off-season and hopefully that will make a huge difference in guys being healthy next year.  Additionally, the Sox have been investing in their sports science department and you heard Grifol & Hahn whisper about it during their press conference.  There is reason to believe our team’s overall health will improve next year, the only question is how many of these injuries are preventable vs. being related to guys who are simply injury prone.  The answer is likely in the middle but that should have a significant impact on our production next year.

[Chisoxfn]

5 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

🤔🤔

This would excite me quite a bit. 

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Lance Lynn zips projected 3.2 WAR.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/
Lance Lynn by Fangraphs 1.9 WAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lance-lynn/2520/stats?position=P

I will wait until you can tell me how that comes out to a 0.7 difference. Since you accused me of making up numbers.

But then an issue - bWAR only puts Lynn at 0.8 WAR. So what is the difference, is B-R blaming him more for defense? Or is he just a dropoff of 2.4 WAR?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml

Because that number isn’t ZiPS’ forecast if you actually read the article.  ZiPS projected Lynn would make 26 starts whereas the figure you’re using assumes more.  Luckily ZiPS accurately predicted a fat guy with bad knees wasn’t going to make 32 starts and the miss was a much more manageable 0.7 difference.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

Oh f*** yes, a real rumor!  And one that would make me happy!  I ain’t sleeping until something is formally announced.

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Because that number isn’t ZiPS’ forecast if you actually read the article.  ZiPS projected Lynn would make 26 starts whereas the figure you’re using assumes more.  Luckily ZiPS accurately predicted a fat guy with bad knees wasn’t going to make 32 starts and the miss was a much more manageable 0.7 difference.

Well of course it estimated fewer starts for him it included Rodon in the rotation in the version you’re using.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well of course it estimated fewer starts for him it included Rodon in the rotation in the version you’re using.

I have no idea what this means and I don’t think you understand how ZiPS works.  But hey, I got more important to talk about like the impending Clevinger signing.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

13 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 

If you work through the way it cascades, “I had to trade Hendriks so that I could afford Kolten Wong” really doesn’t give a lot of confidence in this season going well.

I never mentioned Wong.

[Boopa1219]

I was board on Thanksgiving and I did a deep dive on Andrew Benintendi. And I really want the Sox to sign him, I may actually like him better than Nimmo for the Sox because he has more of a track record when it comes to staying healthy.

Nimmo has 7 years as a pro and he’s only played 100 games in the league 3 times. I’m counting 2020 where he played 55 games out of 60. That’s 91% of the season and that comes out to 149 games in a 162 game season.

Whereas Benintendi has played over 100 games in 5 out of his 7 seasons. So he’s a more reliable player. Like Nimmo, he addresses a lot of the Sox issues. He gets on base, he has a reputation of being a solid defender and he’s left handed.

I wouldn’t be mad if the Sox were aggressive and tried to sign him before the Winter Meetings. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 hours ago, Texsox said:

@Balta1701 I agree with everything except I wouldn't call his (short) MLB stay a success. In fact I'll call it a disappointment and I can't even blame Tony. My memory may be spotty but I recall Tony trying to find good spots for him. 

The more I think about it the more I'm thinking 2nd shouldn't be a top priority, more of a focus on a lefty bat for the OF, pitching, and if something falls in place at 2nd go for it. 

That's how I've been approaching it , pitching and the OF, speed , defense, power, LH,  younger. Operate on the margins to improve the team. We already have the new manager and coaches. Grifol is preaching energy. He saw that in Cleveland with a bunch of hungry young talented players with a strong pitching staff. They gave the Yankees a good run. They have a great manager.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have no idea what this means and I don’t think you understand how ZiPS works.  But hey, I got more important to talk about like the impending Clevinger signing.

Sleep deprivation is not a good thing for anyone around you or yourself.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, Joshua Strong said:

I was board on Thanksgiving and I did a deep dive on Andrew Benintendi. And I really want the Sox to sign him, I may actually like him better than Nimmo for the Sox because he has more of a track record when it comes to staying healthy.

Nimmo has 7 years as a pro and he’s only played 100 games in the league 3 times. I’m counting 2020 where he played 55 games out of 60. That’s 91% of the season and that comes out to 149 games in a 162 game season.

Whereas Benintendi has played over 100 games in 5 out of his 7 seasons. So he’s a more reliable player. Like Nimmo, he addresses a lot of the Sox issues. He gets on base, he has a reputation of being a solid defender and he’s left handed.

I wouldn’t be mad if the Sox were aggressive and tried to sign him before the Winter Meetings. 

Before we heard about the supposed payroll cut, Benintendi seemed like the most obvious pursuit of an OF FA. Then  I decided if JR was going cheap to switch my focus to pitching and defense with OFers way cheaper but with MLB ready, athletic, skillful profiles.

[GradMc]

19 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Or just want to bring him along a bit slower.

Speaking of bringing someone along slowly, If CWS still had FTJR, he would just be making it to the majors - maybe.

FTJR should be on his knees every night thanking God he got away from highly toxic CWS ownership/management in one of the worst player transactions in the history of MLB.

Reinsdorf  giving anyone but himself 300 million deals is netherworld laughable.

But he fails to realize to have those multi championship parades his GM promised, his competition are those kinds of ownerships that will stop at nothing to win.

5 years later we are still talking about the same positional needs.

 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by GradMc

[Texsox]

15 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I didn’t even bother reading because you do nothing but assume the worst. But the premise the Sox as currently constructed would be lucky to be above .500 is just an outrageously negative take. But par for the course. 

He does.

But how is it outrageously negative to believe a .500 team who is losing their best player ( and one of the best in baseball) over the past eight seasons, at least one OF starter, has an unproven manager, a weak front office, and a cheap owner will stay at .500? 

Seems like it's outrageously positive to believe this .500 team will get appreciably better this off season. 

But yeah, he's always negative but in this case negative is a logical conclusion to make. 

[SoxBlanco]

2 hours ago, Texsox said:

He does.

But how is it outrageously negative to believe a .500 team who is losing their best player ( and one of the best in baseball) over the past eight seasons, at least one OF starter, has an unproven manager, a weak front office, and a cheap owner will stay at .500? 

Seems like it's outrageously positive to believe this .500 team will get appreciably better this off season. 

But yeah, he's always negative but in this case negative is a logical conclusion to make. 

It depends on whether you think this team is closer to what we saw in 22 or in 20/21. 

I think last year was the anomaly, so I don’t think it’s overly optimistic to think this team will be better next year. 

[pcq]

9 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

What CWS and SSK said. This doesn’t add up at all. But yeah, if your base assumption is 2023 will be similar for Robert, Moncada, TA, Eloy, Grandal, Giolito, Lynn, etc., as 2022, yeah they’re gonna be not great again. 

Without Leury they could have signed Elvis already. I would go with the good vibes guys. With a little luck Lou Eloy and Oscar will anchor a more potent offense. Kepler would add 2.2 war not bad. 

[poppysox]

39 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

It depends on whether you think this team is closer to what we saw in 22 or in 20/21. 

I think last year was the anomaly, so I don’t think it’s overly optimistic to think this team will be better next year. 

Yep...Tony sucked the life out of this club.

[Texsox]

37 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

It depends on whether you think this team is closer to what we saw in 22 or in 20/21. 

I think last year was the anomaly, so I don’t think it’s overly optimistic to think this team will be better next year. 

With the lineup changes I can't see how comparisons to 20/21 are valid. I don't think it's outrageous to believe the team just floats along and plays at .500 again. I can barely consider it negative thinking. But yes, Jack is a sky is falling poster most of the time. And like a broken watch that is right twice a day, he's got a reasonable point right now. 

Currently we have lost more than we have gained. Until we see who replaces the players who are leaving, .500 may be a valid goal. 

[Dick Allen]

11 minutes ago, Texsox said:

With the lineup changes I can't see how comparisons to 20/21 are valid. I don't think it's outrageous to believe the team just floats along and plays at .500 again. I can barely consider it negative thinking. But yes, Jack is a sky is falling poster most of the time. And like a broken watch that is right twice a day, he's got a reasonable point right now. 

Currently we have lost more than we have gained. Until we see who replaces the players who are leaving, .500 may be a valid goal. 

On the bright side, the Astros lost more than the Sox will last offseason in Correa, McCullers being out  most of the season. Of course they gained Verlander but a year ago there is no way anyone would have thought a 39 year old coming off Tommy John would give them  what he gave them. Obviously signing Clevinger is a turn back the clock hope to 2019. There still is no monster team in the ALC. Cleveland has better pitching, and defense. But the Sox are still right there. They were right there in the beginning of September this year. Then they lost the first game of the Cleveland series and waived the white flag. Players playing with some accountability is going to help. Losing Abreu will be interesting, but it had to happen. I think it will ultimately depend on how many games their best players can play. Cleveland had 5 guys play 146 games. The Sox had 1.