Nightengale: Gio won't be on 2024 White Sox

[bmags]

3 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The trade market doesn’t work as it did several years ago when Hahn pawned everything of worth from Kenny plus Hahn’s one shinning moment, Eaton 1.0.

Teams value their top salary controlled prospects far more today (well except for the Sox flipping for Lynn, Kimbrel recently, far worse during their last “window”). The Sox will not see the same returns on an Eaton, Quintana or even Sale in 2023 that you did in 2016. 

Juan Soto earned 21.4 bWAR by Age 23 and netted Wood, Haskell and Mackenzie Gore last season. 

Max Scherzer (7-0 1.98 ERA w LAD) and Trea Turner (22.3 bWAR through age 28 with Washington) netted Josiah Gray (1.6 bWAR age 25) and  Keibert Ruiz (2.4 / 24).

The White Sox have nobody in these player’s universe in terms of age and production available at the deadline. They will be trading contract relief for marginal prospects in a quest to sink to AL Central Payroll Land.

Career bWAR White Sox Core Players under 30 (7/1/23 Age):

• 16.0 Benintendi (28)
• 4.0 Bummer (29)
• 0.8 Burger (27)
• 9.6 Cease (27)
• -0.9 Colas (24)
• 1.6 Crochet (24)
• 12.0 Giolito (28)
• 5.5 Jimenez (26)
• 3.9 Kopech (27)
• 13.6 Moncada (28)
• AA Ramos (21)
• 9.1 Robert (25)
• AA Rodriguez (22)
• -0.1 Sheets (27)
• 0.0 Vaughn (25)

Eh, I don’t think your first paragraph is true. Hahn had the benefit of trading into a good cycle.

There are times when the top prospects are all on rebuilding, mid tier, ascending clubs, and there are times when they are on competitive, high budget clubs.

When Hahn entered the rebuild, he did so into a market where the Red Sox, cubs, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers and nationals all were fighting for a championship, fighting the luxury tax, and had top ten farms. Hahn offering cheap, controlled, established talent was very fortunately timed. But notice he largely relied on prospect rankings for his returns, as he has no actual talent scouts.

The top ten talent orgs now aren’t nearly as favorable. The dodgers are there, but are less prone to spend big for control. The rest are smaller market teams or not that ready.

This sell off would require a shrewd talent evaluator to boost Sox out of. None are in sight.

[joejoesox]

45 minutes ago, The Mighty Mite said:

It’s doable, a lot of us remember the 1983 Sox who were 8 games under .500 at 16-24 in late May but after that they were just about unbeatable finishing at 99-63. The current team has the talent but I’m not sure if they are as good as the 83 team, best stretch of baseball I’ve ever seen the Sox play, first thing is they have to get everyone healthy and stay healthy and then to start to believe in themselves and play as a team, this little stretch they are on now gives us hope.

yeah I gotta disagree that they have the talent. they are injury prone up and down the entire 26man roster and the depth/bench guys who have to fill in are AAAA guys who wouldn't sniff a call up on any top 10 team in baseball

[oldsox]

18 hours ago, Timmy U said:

If they trade TA, they should prioritize pitching. Dodgers have three guys who are close -- Pepiot, Stone, and Miller. I would take any of those three.  Gio would get you something. They should start shopping him now while he's still pitching well.

Internally, there's not a lot. I do not believe in Burke. Mena is very young, but he has plus control and pretty good command. I could see him coming fast. Cannon will be up by the end of next year. Don't know how much impact he'll have, though. Matthew Thompson is teasing that he may be a big leaguer. Under the radar lefties like Sommer and Murphy might be depth options by next year?

Other than that, you can count on a couple of scrap heap signings.

This should be negotiated now.

[Tnetennba]

The baseball landscape is much different now than it was in 2016.  In a hypothetical sell off, Hahn has way less leverage.  The parts that he could sell now simply aren’t worth the “hauls” he got for Sale, Q, and Eaton, Hahn’s lack of talent evaluation aside.  The core of this team was a flash in the pan 2020-2021, and since has crashed & burned.  Maybe you get real value from Cease and Robert, but then what?  The prospects whither on the vine in the minors?  Moncada is unmovable w/o eating significant money, so no return there.  Eloy is in a similar boat.  You’re stuck with Benintendi.  Vaughn isn’t bringing back a haul, and neither is Kopech.  Hendriks too for that matter.  Grandal, Lynn, Graveman, & Bummer get you lottery tickets at best.  There is no real path to jump-starting a 2016 style rebuild again.  This is a colossal mess.  Maxed out, grossly overpaid for their production, and with little to no trade value.  It’s all moot for that matter too as I do not believe JR would authorise another bare bones tear down.  Prepare yourselves for cost cutting and pretending that they are still competing.  The results on the field simply don’t matter to JR anymore, so long as the profit rolls in, and his sycophantic front office does that job well enough while pretending to care about winning, so don’t expect any significant changes there either.  We are all hostages of this ownership group until they draw their last breath.  

[RibbieRubarb]

21 hours ago, Big Hurtin said:

It would be so dumb to not trade him.  You have to get something for him.

Have you met Rick Hahn?

[RibbieRubarb]

The White Sox need a Chicago Bears makeover.

New manager.
New GM from a franchise that has a history of a winning culture, but with an emphasis on player development throughout the system.
New Team President from a similar background.

None of this will happen though...
Pedro will get a few more years,
Getz is the new GM
Someone loyal will be new Exec VP reporting to JR.

Edited May 8, 2023 by RibbieRubarb

[Tnetennba]

7 minutes ago, RibbieRubarb said:

The White Sox need a Chicago Bears makeover.

New manager.
New GM from a franchise that has a history of a winning culture, but with an emphasis on player development throughout the system.
New Team President from a similar background.

None of this will happen though...
Pedro will get a few more years,
Getz is the new GM
Someone loyal will be new Exec VP reporting to JR.

They really need a Blackhawks makeover from ownership on down, without the abhorrent s%*# that went on behind the scenes.

[GreatScott82]

9 hours ago, bighurt4life said:

Gonna have to disagree on this, Hahn has a history of giving just as good as he gets when making trades. I’ll point to the trades that started this rebuild. 

C. Sale to the R Sox, we got Moncada and Kopech back. Pretty good (not great) return instead of watching sale waste his best years on a losing team. Sale has given them 20 WAR and we’ve gotten 14 from yoan, kopech, only 3 from Kopech. 
Grade- B

Adam Eaton to Nationals for Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning (traded for Lance Lynn)  Nationals got 5 WAR from Eaton, we have gotten a total of nearly 30 WAR from our return.

Grade- A+

Quintana to the Cubs for Eloy and Cease. Q gave the Cubs like 6 or 7 war. We all know how good Cease has become and if Eloy could stay healthy he’s an all star caliber player.  We have about 15 WAR between the two so far. 

Grade-A
 

I agree that it’s time for Hahn to go, BUT let’s keep things in perspective, he is not the worst GM in the game. To say so is just hyperbole. 

Seems like you can only pull up a handful of quality deals Hahn has executed over his tenure. I would have to admit- during the rebuild- I applauded many of his moves. However, he failed to round out a complete roster. He failed to continue to replenish the farm to build up better prospect capital.  There are a plethora of bad free agent signings and bad trades as well. To me, you can simply rank a GM based on overall win %. His is the worst during his 10 years as GM as it stands. And most other GM's were fired after 4-5 years with a similar win %. Must be nice to have some sort of accountability.  Yes, my response might have been hyperbole. But the #'s are pretty obvious. He's bad. The last time I checked, the Sox STILL don't have a RF. That's on Hahn.

[JoeC]

Hahn (10/26/2022 ascension to GM) technically gets credit for the Sale (3/7/2013) and Quintana (3/2014) contract extensions.

He also deserves credit for extracting great value in the returns for the above two, plus Eaton.

IMO he deserves a lot of credit for laying the foundation for a great core with his tear-down and start of the rebuild... but he's completely and utterly failed at rounding out that core (including contingency planning outside of 1B / DH)

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Good.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

10 minutes ago, JoeC said:

Hahn (10/26/2022 ascension to GM) technically gets credit for the Sale (3/7/2013) and Quintana (3/2014) contract extensions.

He also deserves credit for extracting great value in the returns for the above two, plus Eaton.

IMO he deserves a lot of credit for laying the foundation for a great core with his tear-down and start of the rebuild... but he's completely and utterly failed at rounding out that core (including contingency planning outside of 1B / DH)

This post is 100% right.

[South Side Hit Men]

The two areas Hahn did a good to excellent job was acquiring and flipping Eaton, and the Sale/Quintana trades.

Where things fell apart is when he failed to draft/develop much talent beyond these acquisitions plus Paddy's Robert/Abreu signings to have a solid 12-15 player core / 1-9 lineup. The terrible DH and RP heavy roster construction and overpriced veterans on their last deals constrained the ability to address perennial needs at 2B, RF, SP plus additional depth. This led to an act of desperation in dealing cost controlled players like Dunning and Madrigal to acquire high cost end of career veterans like Kimbrel/Pollock, Lynn plus the high priced Keuchel and Grandal signings.

This, not Hahn's 2016-2017 deals, is why the Hahn era needs to end.

[TheFutureIsNear]

I’m sure announcing this to the world in early May is a wonderful negotiation tactic… 

[Stinky Stanky]

22 hours ago, Soxfest said:

JR is on record saying he will not give starting pitchers long term deals. Cease will be gone at some point. 

Funny stuff.  I recall him saying this some 40 years ago, then almost immediately giving five years to the cringeworthy Jaime Navarro.

17 hours ago, joejoesox said:

i mean they made a decent offer to Wheeler 

The exception that proves the rule.  Like that old saying actually means something.

[Harry Chappas]

Who reads Nightengale anyway?  Outside of this board I never see anything form him except when someone on Twitter is pointing out something stupid he tweeted.

It's funny, well sad actually, that the go to guy for the White Sox owner is the USA Today.  

It's kind of like showing up for a panel discussion with three other owners that have nothing in common with you or your sport to discuss ownership.

[RibbieRubarb]

 

1 hour ago, Tnetennba said:

They really need a Blackhawks makeover from ownership on down, without the abhorrent s%*# that went on behind the scenes.

There needs to be a new culture brought it. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by RibbieRubarb

[Rocky]

23 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

Nice of them to broadcast their cost cutting intentions early.  Zero surprise though.  Gio, Lynn, & TA are as good as gone.  Get ready for the deck chair shuffling return to middling mediocrity. 

Return? 

We've been there for years. 

[joejoesox]

On 5/7/2023 at 12:37 PM, Flash Tizzle said:

Ideally, Gio continues pitching well enough to unload him midseason to a contender. It’s better than playing the game of, will the White Sox offer him a qualifying offer or not after the season for the draft pick. 

I think it's likely that Gio is traded, Katz fired and then Katz follows Giolito to his third team. 

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, RibbieRubarb said:

 

There needs to be a new culture brought it. 

100%

[The Kids Can Play]

12 hours ago, bighurt4life said:

Gonna have to disagree on this, Hahn has a history of giving just as good as he gets when making trades. I’ll point to the trades that started this rebuild. 

C. Sale to the R Sox, we got Moncada and Kopech back. Pretty good (not great) return instead of watching sale waste his best years on a losing team. Sale has given them 20 WAR and we’ve gotten 14 from yoan, kopech, only 3 from Kopech. 
Grade- B

Adam Eaton to Nationals for Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning (traded for Lance Lynn)  Nationals got 5 WAR from Eaton, we have gotten a total of nearly 30 WAR from our return.

Grade- A+

Quintana to the Cubs for Eloy and Cease. Q gave the Cubs like 6 or 7 war. We all know how good Cease has become and if Eloy could stay healthy he’s an all star caliber player.  We have about 15 WAR between the two so far. 

Grade-A
 

I agree that it’s time for Hahn to go, BUT let’s keep things in perspective, he is not the worst GM in the game. To say so is just hyperbole. 

You telling the majority of us in this forum that we feel Rick Hahn is the worst GM in baseball is just hyperball, when in reality, it's you being the classic contrarian trying to convince us that Hahn isn't the worst GM in baseball.  

Interesting how you list Hahn's three good trades and failed to list his bad trades: 

1. SS Fernando Tatis Jr. and RHP Erik Johnson for RHP James Shields

2. 2B Nick Madrigal and RHP Codi Heuer for RHP Craig Kimbrel

3, 3B Todd Frazier, RHP David Robertson and RHP Tommy Kahnle for OF Blake Rutherford, OF Tito Polo, RHP Tyler Clippard and LHP Ian Clarkin

4. OF Melky Cabrera for RHP A.J. Puckett and LHP Andre Davis

5. RHP Addison Reed for 3B Matt Davidson 

6. LHP Konnor Pilkington for 2B Cesar Hernandez

You also are missing the other major factors in why we know Rick Hahn is the worst GM in baseball:

1. Counting 2023, 8 of his 11 years as the GM his teams have been under 500.  

2. Overall W-L record as GM is 712-840 .458

2. Two playoff appearances with zero playoff wins in 11 seasons as GM.

3. The now infamous 2016 rebuild debacle.

     - There is no debate here, as its been a complete disaster. Now we are looking at a potential second rebuild 2.0. 

4. The 26th ranked farm system

     - A GM is also responsible for scouting, drafting and developing prospects to bring up someday to the major league level and be productive for the Sox. The Farm System is actually a bigger failure than the trades of Hahn. 

5. A long history of bad free agent signings.

     - Hahn might have signed a couple of good ones like Jose Abreu, but the majority of his free agent signings were bad. 

6. Excessive injured players during the season.

     - One the leading teams to put players on the IL. Yes the GM is responsible for hiring the right trainers and strength/conditioning coaches to help the players not pull so many hamstrings and other muscles.

7. Bad manager hire of Pedro Grifol

      - Hahn gets a pass for Tony LaRussa. Yet the hiring of Pedro and his loser coaches is bad.

Overall when you look at the total job description of a GM, you're damn right Rick Hahn is the worst GM in baseball. 

There have been many bad GM's in baseball, however the point here is...they don't keep their employment for this many years with horrible results like Hahn has. 

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

You telling the majority of us in this forum that we feel Rick Hahn is the worst GM in baseball is just hyperball, when in reality, it's you being the classic contrarian trying to convince us that Hahn isn't the worst GM in baseball.  

Interesting how you list Hahn's three good trades and failed to list his bad trades: 

1. SS Fernando Tatis Jr. and RHP Erik Johnson for RHP James Shields

2. 2B Nick Madrigal and RHP Codi Heuer for RHP Craig Kimbrel

3, 3B Todd Frazier, RHP David Robertson and RHP Tommy Kahnle for OF Blake Rutherford, OF Tito Polo, RHP Tyler Clippard and LHP Ian Clarkin

4. OF Melky Cabrera for RHP A.J. Puckett and LHP Andre Davis

5. RHP Addison Reed for 3B Matt Davidson 

6. LHP Konnor Pilkington for 2B Cesar Hernandez

You also are missing the other major factors in why we know Rick Hahn is the worst GM in baseball:

1. Counting 2023, 8 of his 11 years as the GM his teams have been under 500.  

2. Overall W-L record as GM is 712-840 .458

2. Two playoff appearances with zero playoff wins in 11 seasons as GM.

3. The now infamous 2016 rebuild debacle.

     - There is no debate here, as its been a complete disaster. Now we are looking at a potential second rebuild 2.0. 

4. The 26th ranked farm system

     - A GM is also responsible for scouting, drafting and developing prospects to bring up someday to the major league level and be productive for the Sox. The Farm System is actually a bigger failure than the trades of Hahn. 

5. A long history of bad free agent signings.

     - Hahn might have signed a couple of good ones like Jose Abreu, but the majority of his free agent signings were bad. 

6. Excessive injured players during the season.

     - One the leading teams to put players on the IL. Yes the GM is responsible for hiring the right trainers and strength/conditioning coaches to help the players not pull so many hamstrings and other muscles.

7. Bad manager hire of Pedro Grifol

      - Hahn gets a pass for Tony LaRussa. Yet the hiring of Pedro and his loser coaches is bad.

Overall when you look at the total job description of a GM, you're damn right Rick Hahn is the worst GM in baseball. 

There have been many bad GM's in baseball, however the point here is...they don't keep their employment for this many years with horrible results like Hahn has. 

My man, how did you not list Samardzija?

[The Kids Can Play]

5 minutes ago, Quin said:

My man, how did you not list Samardzija?

My bad. I was looking up the trades and I just forgot to list it. But thanks for reminding me because you're right, another dumb trade.

[caulfield12]

10 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The trade market doesn’t work as it did several years ago when Hahn pawned everything of worth from Kenny plus Hahn’s one shinning moment, Eaton 1.0.

Teams value their top salary controlled prospects far more today (well except for the Sox flipping for Lynn, Kimbrel recently, far worse during their last “window”). The Sox will not see the same returns on an Eaton, Quintana or even Sale in 2023 that you did in 2016. 

Juan Soto earned 21.4 bWAR by Age 23 and netted Wood, Haskell and Mackenzie Gore last season. 

Max Scherzer (7-0 1.98 ERA w LAD) and Trea Turner (22.3 bWAR through age 28 with Washington) netted Josiah Gray (1.6 bWAR age 25) and  Keibert Ruiz (2.4 / 24).

The White Sox have nobody in these player’s universe in terms of age and production available at the deadline. They will be trading contract relief for marginal prospects in a quest to sink to AL Central Payroll Land.

Career bWAR White Sox Core Players under 30 (7/1/23 Age):

• 16.0 Benintendi (28)
• 4.0 Bummer (29)
• 0.8 Burger (27)
• 9.6 Cease (27)
• -0.9 Colas (24)
• 1.6 Crochet (24)
• 12.0 Giolito (28)
• 5.5 Jimenez (26)
• 3.9 Kopech (27)
• 13.6 Moncada (28)
• AA Ramos (21)
• 9.1 Robert (25)
• AA Rodriguez (22)
• -0.1 Sheets (27)
• 0.0 Vaughn (25)

CJ Abrams was a Top 5 MiLB prospect two years ago but everyone believes Wood is the real prize of the bunch, and Gore. 

Pretty sure it's Hassell. 

Clevinger trade fair massive giveaway as well.  Quantrill Naylor Arias Hedges Miller etc. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by caulfield12

[ScootsMcGoots]

He gawn. And he probably can't wait.

Edited May 8, 2023 by ScootsMcGoots

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

1 hour ago, joejoesox said:

I think it's likely that Gio is traded, Katz fired and then Katz follows Giolito to his third team. 

I can totally see this being the case. I don’t think Katz makes it beyond this season regardless of what happens with Gio. Katz will be the FO’s scape goat with how horrible the pitching staff has been to start the year.