caulfield12 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: Harold makes fun of others, but his track record as a prospect guru is pretty lame. Kelenic might make the WI Sports HoF... We did strangely hear Gavin Lux's name all offseason, so there was that. Edited February 9 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 51 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: While I get all that, keep in mind, this is A ball, and there are questions about his attitude. It will be a miracle if he’s ever useful. The odds are certainly stacked against him. I just think it’s too early to say he’s a “bust” because he is still very young and has one elite skill in plate discipline. On top of that, he has revamped his swing this offseason. Again, more likely than not he fails, but I am not ready to write him off just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: The odds are certainly stacked against him. I just think it’s too early to say he’s a “bust” because he is still very young and has one elite skill in plate discipline. On top of that, he has revamped his swing this offseason. Again, more likely than not he fails, but I am not ready to write him off just yet. Is a bust defined only as a guy who is completely done? In that case, Wilson is a bust yes, and the others in that deal aren’t - yet. But they’re definitely heading in that direction. If a guy drops from being a top 200 prospect to a marginal top 1000 prospect, is it stretching language to say he’s a bust? Or merely “almost there”? Right now, the White Sox seem really likely to have traded away Cease and Fedde and Kopech without literally anything of value in return, while simultaneously losing perhaps 330 games in 3 years. When are we allowed to call that a pattern? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Is a bust defined only as a guy who is completely done? In that case, Wilson is a bust yes, and the others in that deal aren’t - yet. But they’re definitely heading in that direction. If a guy drops from being a top 200 prospect to a marginal top 1000 prospect, is it stretching language to say he’s a bust? Or merely “almost there”? Right now, the White Sox seem really likely to have traded away Cease and Fedde and Kopech without literally anything of value in return, while simultaneously losing perhaps 330 games in 3 years. When are we allowed to call that a pattern? He came to the Sox and regressed. HARD. This supposedly new and liberated development team, with the baseball people in charge is sure having problems producing productive baseball players in anything other than something called "process". The whole "revamped" swing thing sounds an awful lot like "best shape of his life" and "healthy by Spring Training" to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vilehoopster Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Balta1701 said: Is a bust defined only as a guy who is completely done? In that case, Wilson is a bust yes, and the others in that deal aren’t - yet. But they’re definitely heading in that direction. If a guy drops from being a top 200 prospect to a marginal top 1000 prospect, is it stretching language to say he’s a bust? Or merely “almost there”? Right now, the White Sox seem really likely to have traded away Cease and Fedde and Kopech without literally anything of value in return, while simultaneously losing perhaps 330 games in 3 years. When are we allowed to call that a pattern? "Right now, the White Sox seem really likely to have traded away Cease and Fedde and Kopech without literally anything of value in return." The exaggeration and ignoring of facts and reality by the doomsayers and complainers on this board is incredible, just incredible. Now I get the complaining about the Fedde/ Kopech trade; I can't start to justify that one. But again there is no real evidence that the Sox lost the Cease trade, none! It very possible that the Sox might resoundingly win that trade. The evidence for that being a Sox win is every bit as strong as the evidence that the Sox lost it. But still people with their negativity agenda have to continue to warp facts and info. First of all, that people are citing Steve Wilson as evidence that the Sox lost that trade, that is totally ridiculous. Wilson from the start was a 100% a throw-in of no value. People saying the Sox lost the Cease trade because Wilson was cut, is exactly like saying the Sox lost the Chris Sale trade because Victor Diaz never made it to the majors. Both players were throw-ins, none factors in the trades. So Thorpe and Iriarte are "without anything literally of value"? Really, really? Are you going to maybe admit that there's a little, tiny smidgen of exaggeration there, maybe some hyperbole, or a total misrepresentation of the true; because i'm going with the last one, the misrepresentation thing. It's funny how in "without anything literally of value", the poster is willing to declare a 20 year old prospect loaded with talent as a bust, but at the same time ignoring a five game stretch of pitching by Thorpe, as a rookie, that was way, way better than any sort of five game stretch Cease achieve in his first couple years. That five game stretch and Iriarte's 55 level fastball, slider, and changeup (that's right off MLB.com), and Zavala's athletic talent, I think that those are things literally very much of value. But go ahead and dismiss the trade as a loss because of Victor Diaz, oops, I meant Steve Wilson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 35 minutes ago, vilehoopster said: "Right now, the White Sox seem really likely to have traded away Cease and Fedde and Kopech without literally anything of value in return." The exaggeration and ignoring of facts and reality by the doomsayers and complainers on this board is incredible, just incredible. Now I get the complaining about the Fedde/ Kopech trade; I can't start to justify that one. But again there is no real evidence that the Sox lost the Cease trade, none! It very possible that the Sox might resoundingly win that trade. The evidence for that being a Sox win is every bit as strong as the evidence that the Sox lost it. But still people with their negativity agenda have to continue to warp facts and info. First of all, that people are citing Steve Wilson as evidence that the Sox lost that trade, that is totally ridiculous. Wilson from the start was a 100% a throw-in of no value. People saying the Sox lost the Cease trade because Wilson was cut, is exactly like saying the Sox lost the Chris Sale trade because Victor Diaz never made it to the majors. Both players were throw-ins, none factors in the trades. So Thorpe and Iriarte are "without anything literally of value"? Really, really? Are you going to maybe admit that there's a little, tiny smidgen of exaggeration there, maybe some hyperbole, or a total misrepresentation of the true; because i'm going with the last one, the misrepresentation thing. It's funny how in "without anything literally of value", the poster is willing to declare a 20 year old prospect loaded with talent as a bust, but at the same time ignoring a five game stretch of pitching by Thorpe, as a rookie, that was way, way better than any sort of five game stretch Cease achieve in his first couple years. That five game stretch and Iriarte's 55 level fastball, slider, and changeup (that's right off MLB.com), and Zavala's athletic talent, I think that those are things literally very much of value. But go ahead and dismiss the trade as a loss because of Victor Diaz, oops, I meant Steve Wilson. As of right now, no, I think Drew Thorpe looks like a guy who might, might be able to turn into an OK reliever, and Iriarte can't throw strikes. Thorpe's raw numbers are worse than 47 year old Jamie Moyer. Worse strikeout rate than a 47 year old, more than twice as high of walk rate. Had he not gotten hurt, his numbers on the year would look awful, he was riding a .150 BABIP for that 5 game stretch. His performance was, frankly, awful, and it was covered up by a tiny bit of good luck. He was really, really bad. Like, I can seriously say - I have never been more disappointed by a top 50 prospect. If he's a top 50 prospect, then this is the weakest minor leagues we've seen in my lifetime. Iriarte similarly looked bad. At least his arm looked decent, can't complain about that, but he couldn't throw strikes. They made him look better by holding him at AA. Maybe Thorpe comes back in 2026 from TJS with a much stronger fastball and is a better pitcher? I will say that maybe he could be a Tommy Kahnle type reliever who throws 50% changeups if he picks up a few mph on his fastball out of the bullpen, but the Drew Thorpe we saw last year isn't even a AAA quality starter. As of right now, I see 0 decent big leaguers out of that trade and I think anyone who points to "5 games by Drew Thorpe where his BABIP was .150" didn't pay any attention to the games he pitched. You can't win baseball as a fly ball pitcher getting 3 strikeouts and 3 walks in 6 innings. And that's not even counting the fact that it seems like Thorpe will burn through his first 2 pre-arb seasons rehabbing from TJS. So yeah, I think this fall we are sitting there saying that there is 0 return from those 2 trades. What happens if both Montgomerys struggle this year? One stank last year and one was hurt, I like the gamble but I don't know what he will do as he's never played in the minor leagues. If the entire White Sox's system is 2 catchers and 2 LHPs, this is a 60 win team max until they move to Nashville. And then we'll still hear how the GM has done a fine job and shouldnt' be criticized. Just like now. Almost as if people have reasons to support him beyond their own eyes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: As of right now, no, I think Drew Thorpe looks like a guy who might, might be able to turn into an OK reliever, and Iriarte can't throw strikes. Thorpe's raw numbers are worse than 47 year old Jamie Moyer. Worse strikeout rate than a 47 year old, more than twice as high of walk rate. Had he not gotten hurt, his numbers on the year would look awful, he was riding a .150 BABIP for that 5 game stretch. His performance was, frankly, awful, and it was covered up by a tiny bit of good luck. He was really, really bad. Like, I can seriously say - I have never been more disappointed by a top 50 prospect. If he's a top 50 prospect, then this is the weakest minor leagues we've seen in my lifetime. Iriarte similarly looked bad. At least his arm looked decent, can't complain about that, but he couldn't throw strikes. They made him look better by holding him at AA. Maybe Thorpe comes back in 2026 from TJS with a much stronger fastball and is a better pitcher? I will say that maybe he could be a Tommy Kahnle type reliever who throws 50% changeups if he picks up a few mph on his fastball out of the bullpen, but the Drew Thorpe we saw last year isn't even a AAA quality starter. As of right now, I see 0 decent big leaguers out of that trade and I think anyone who points to "5 games by Drew Thorpe where his BABIP was .150" didn't pay any attention to the games he pitched. You can't win baseball as a fly ball pitcher getting 3 strikeouts and 3 walks in 6 innings. And that's not even counting the fact that it seems like Thorpe will burn through his first 2 pre-arb seasons rehabbing from TJS. So yeah, I think this fall we are sitting there saying that there is 0 return from those 2 trades. What happens if both Montgomerys struggle this year? One stank last year and one was hurt, I like the gamble but I don't know what he will do as he's never played in the minor leagues. If the entire White Sox's system is 2 catchers and 2 LHPs, this is a 60 win team max until they move to Nashville. That's just it. The last rebuild had six Top 100 premium position prospects...among others. And then they already had the "base/foundation" of Anderson and Abreu. Everything right now seems to be highly predicated on both Montgomery's being stars, with Quero/Teel looking more like complementary pieces that are solid but steady contributors, but certainly not studs that can carry a team. (Think more of Omar Narvaez with Quero than Adley R.). Braden's only lacking in foot speed from the five tool box...Colson's obviously got even more going against him, but at the very least, we can't blame the Red Sox if something goes wrong with Braden's development (if anything, we should probably be wishing he was able to spend 2+ months working with their cutting-edge hitting instructors in his draft year). And the odds of both Smith/Schultz 1) pitching up to their capabilities and 2) not getting hurt...well, we know from following Sox top pitching prospects from the late 90's on that you simply can't expect both guys AND Grant Taylor to "hit the jackpot" like they did with Crochet/Sale. Edited February 10 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vilehoopster Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 "His performance was, frankly, awful, and it was covered up by a tiny bit of good luck. He was really, really bad. Like, I can seriously say - I have never been more disappointed by a top 50 prospect. " June 22 - Det. -- 6 innings - 0 earned runs June 28 - Col. - 6 innings - 2 earned runs July 5 - Miami - 6.1 innings - 1 earned run July 10 - Minn. - 6 innings - 2 earned runs July 21 - @KC - 6 innings - 0 earned runs Then the elbow thing started and he had two bad games then stopped. Did Cease even sniff a stretch like that in his first two years?? Now quote me his BaBS oh, I'm sorry his BABIP. What a stupid stat that must be. So BABIP tells the story and not those 5 earned runs over 36 1/3 innings. This only reinforces my last claim: You totally misrepresent the facts to fit your negative agenda. You literally said, about those six games (in quotes above) "frankly, awful . . . never more disappointed in a top 50 prospect". How can you with a straight face type that up and then stand by it. You're continuing to make stuff up, finding silly stats, rather than admit; again, that Thorpe, Iriate, and Zavala are literally something, not nothing. You cannot win this debate, not with that stretch of games and Iriate's 55 ranking for MLB. They are something and the value of return on the Cease trade is still open for discussion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, vilehoopster said: "His performance was, frankly, awful, and it was covered up by a tiny bit of good luck. He was really, really bad. Like, I can seriously say - I have never been more disappointed by a top 50 prospect. " June 22 - Det. -- 6 innings - 0 earned runs June 28 - Col. - 6 innings - 2 earned runs July 5 - Miami - 6.1 innings - 1 earned run July 10 - Minn. - 6 innings - 2 earned runs July 21 - @KC - 6 innings - 0 earned runs Then the elbow thing started and he had two bad games then stopped. Did Cease even sniff a stretch like that in his first two years?? Now quote me his BaBS oh, I'm sorry his BABIP. What a stupid stat that must be. So BABIP tells the story and not those 5 earned runs over 36 1/3 innings. This only reinforces my last claim: You totally misrepresent the facts to fit your negative agenda. You literally said, about those six games (in quotes above) "frankly, awful . . . never more disappointed in a top 50 prospect". How can you with a straight face type that up and then stand by it. You're continuing to make stuff up, finding silly stats, rather than admit; again, that Thorpe, Iriate, and Zavala are literally something, not nothing. You cannot win this debate, not with that stretch of games and Iriate's 55 ranking for MLB. They are something and the value of return on the Cease trade is still open for discussion. Over those 5 games he had a .127 BABIP. 20 strikeouts, 10 walks in 30.1 innings. So yeah, call it stupid and it reveals more about you than about Thorpe, that's completely unsurvivable in the big leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Over those 5 games he had a .127 BABIP. 20 strikeouts, 10 walks in 30.1 innings. So yeah, call it stupid and it reveals more about you than about Thorpe, that's completely unsurvivable in the big leagues. Drew Thorpe induces weak contact, thus, low BABIP. He's a rare oyster, that's for sure. It's fun watching people convincing themselves that bumblebees can't fly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, WestEddy said: Drew Thorpe induces weak contact, thus, low BABIP. He's a rare oyster, that's for sure. It's fun watching people convincing themselves that bumblebees can't fly. Find me a pitcher who had a .127 BABIP from a low exit velocity over more than a 5 game stretch. Find me pitcher who had a .200 BABIP over a full season last year. if it was .250, you might have a point. But that is TWICE as many hits as he allowed in those games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Find me a pitcher who had a .127 BABIP from a low exit velocity over more than a 5 game stretch. Find me pitcher who had a .200 BABIP over a full season last year. if it was .250, you might have a point. But that is TWICE as many hits as he allowed in those games. A quick search shows the lowest career BABIP against is Phil Niekro at .251 with his HOF knuckleball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: A quick search shows the lowest career BABIP against is Phil Niekro at .251 with his HOF knuckleball That makes sense because you have a lot of balls beaten into the ground...popped up or fouled out, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: A quick search shows the lowest career BABIP against is Phil Niekro at .251 with his HOF knuckleball Ronel Blanco had a .220 BABIP last year and the Astros clearly don’t think he’s a top of the rotation guy despite a really great season, they expect him in the rotation but he didn’t start any of their postseason games for a reason. They are smarter than this, they think he could be decent but they understand he can’t do that again because some of that is luck. There’s a difference between “a pitcher can do this” and “this is blind luck because you pitched against the Marlins, Tigers, and Mariners”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Ronel Blanco had a .220 BABIP last year and the Astros clearly don’t think he’s a top of the rotation guy despite a really great season, they expect him in the rotation but he didn’t start any of their postseason games for a reason. They are smarter than this, they think he could be decent but they understand he can’t do that again because some of that is luck. There’s a difference between “a pitcher can do this” and “this is blind luck because you pitched against the Marlins, Tigers, and Mariners”. So wait. Now the Mariners and Tigers are bad? Maybe their stats are bad because they went up against a master at creating weak contact, and he ruined them. You're welcome for the wisdom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, WestEddy said: So wait. Now the Mariners and Tigers are bad? Maybe their stats are bad because they went up against a master at creating weak contact, and he ruined them. You're welcome for the wisdom. Yes, the Mariners offense was bad. They had the #2 ERA in baseball for their pitching staff and defense and missed the playoffs. There is only one other part to the game other than not giving up runs, and that is scoring runs. Which they were bad at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Only 25 strikeouts in 44.1 innings is a bit scary as far as future success goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Only 25 strikeouts in 44.1 innings is a bit scary as far as future success goes. And 21 walks. This doesn’t work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 45 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Only 25 strikeouts in 44.1 innings is a bit scary as far as future success goes. Yeah, Buehrle scary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tnetennba Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, WestEddy said: So wait. Now the Mariners and Tigers are bad? Maybe their stats are bad because they went up against a master at creating weak contact, and he ruined them. You're welcome for the wisdom. Master of creating weak contact my ass. Thorpe got lit up by a bad Mariners offense the second time he faced them. The same Mariners team that blew a 10 game lead in their division and missed the playoffs entirely because they couldn’t score runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, Tnetennba said: Master of creating weak contact my ass. Thorpe got lit up by a bad Mariners offense the second time he faced them. The same Mariners team that blew a 10 game lead in their division and missed the playoffs entirely because they couldn’t score runs. The 2nd time he faced them, but the 1st while injured. The more you guys tell these campfire ghost stories, the more confident I am that Thorpe will be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 30 minutes ago, WestEddy said: Yeah, Buehrle scary. Then he needs to be a ground ball pitcher. Mark Buehrle not only averaged 9.7 walks per 44 innings rather than 21, his ground ball rate was 45% for his career. Mark Buehrle had a dominant 2 seam fastball that put the ball on the ground at a rate well above the rest of the league and ground balls are outs. Thorpe doesn’t throw a 2 seamer and had a below average 36% ground ball rate last year. Thats extra fly balls and numerous extra home runs each season, on top of the extra 2 walks per game. This is a way to get outs, and Thorpe’s problems are too many walks and no way to generate outs above average. Unless you filter down to only 5 starts and rely on randomness to make them look better. Thorpe adding a two seamer as major pitch would have been a smart move for his career but we didn’t see that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Then he needs to be a ground ball pitcher. Mark Buehrle not only averaged 9.7 walks per 44 innings rather than 21, his ground ball rate was 45% for his career. Mark Buehrle had a dominant 2 seam fastball that put the ball on the ground at a rate well above the rest of the league and ground balls are outs. Thorpe doesn’t throw a 2 seamer and had a below average 36% ground ball rate last year. Thats extra fly balls and numerous extra home runs each season, on top of the extra 2 walks per game. This is a way to get outs, and Thorpe’s problems are too many walks and no way to generate outs above average. Unless you filter down to only 5 starts and rely on randomness to make them look better. Thorpe adding a two seamer as major pitch would have been a smart move for his career but we didn’t see that. Well, they have a pitching lab, and two great pitching minds in Banny and Katz. Good thing baseball isn't Running Man, and pitchers have to become hall-of-famers in 7 games, or else they're out the door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, WestEddy said: Well, they have a pitching lab, and two great pitching minds in Banny and Katz. Good thing baseball isn't Running Man, and pitchers have to become hall-of-famers in 7 games, or else they're out the door. But will they be fired if Thorpe fails? Or if, for example, Steven Wilson is traded for so that he can be a future trade piece and he flops will anyone blame them? Or will we be in a thread about a pitcher who was supposed to be a solid addition to the point he was a trade piece, having people ignore how badly that pitcher performed, and still complimenting the pitching coaches despite the obvious failure that they’re deliberately ignoring? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: But will they be fired if Thorpe fails? Or if, for example, Steven Wilson is traded for so that he can be a future trade piece and he flops will anyone blame them? Or will we be in a thread about a pitcher who was supposed to be a solid addition to the point he was a trade piece, having people ignore how badly that pitcher performed, and still complimenting the pitching coaches despite the obvious failure that they’re deliberately ignoring? What failure are they obviously ignoring? Maybe instead of posting, you should be in the parking lot outside of their Arizona offices, honking your horn to get them to come down and hear this pressing information. Thorpe did, pretty much, the opposite of fail, last year. So, yeah, I blame the White Sox development for that. Why do the Padres get no blame? If all 4 prospects suck, maybe we should all take a field trip to some Padres forum to tell their fans how concerned they should all be about their own development. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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