The Future Of the Rotation

[Chicago White Sox]

What realistic sign have you seen that this is even remotely possible right now?

 

If there were "2 quality SP prospects" available for anyone on our roster, other than maybe for Alexei, do you think we'd be moving on that?

 

If these offers were out there, we'd have taken them for Danks, for example.

First off, I said "if" we can, meaning at some point between now and spring training. I'm not saying that offer is out there right now or even that such an offer will even be made eventually. I'm simply stating what price I'd be willing to accept in exchange for Gavin this offseason.

 

Second, Floyd at 2 years is much more valuable than Danks at 1 year IMO. I don't think it's that far fetched that a team gets desperate for SP in the next and would be willing to give up two quality SP prospects for Gavin. It may not happen but I don't think that price is ridiculous for a mid rotation starter locked up for two years.

 

Third, clearly our definition of quality prospects differ. I'm talking about top 10 prospects in a reasonably good system. I'd prefer one of those guys to be a top 100 prospect, but would not expect anyone in the top 30 or 40. Is that really that crazy?

[Balta1701]

Right now, if that kind of deal were out there, I think it would have already happened.

[bigruss]

Right now, if that kind of deal were out there, I think it would have already happened.

I think Balta is on repeat again...

[Balta1701]

I think Balta is on repeat again...

Do people really think that there are these great offers for our guys that KW has gotten that he's just sitting on?

 

Didn't the Danks extension pretty much prove that isn't the case, that the offers for our guys really haven't measured up?

[elrockinMT]

Do people really think that there are these great offers for our guys that KW has gotten that he's just sitting on?

 

Didn't the Danks extension pretty much prove that isn't the case, that the offers for our guys really haven't measured up?

 

 

My feeling is this on that: If a GM thinks the Sox are in some kind of panic mode they won't give us what we want, or give any team what they want for a player in that situation. Plus maybe all along KW has figured this team can still compete and will not just give up a player for less than a grerat return in talent. Plus if we hang on and don't give in to some idea that we have to trade just because there is a clamor for it something might come along before spring training. We still have a good 2 1/2 to 3 months.

[bigruss]

Do people really think that there are these great offers for our guys that KW has gotten that he's just sitting on?

 

Didn't the Danks extension pretty much prove that isn't the case, that the offers for our guys really haven't measured up?

I think he said IF about 50 times in his post, and said that there probably wasnt offers out there to that extent right now. You just repeated a stance that he acknowledged.

[Balta1701]

I think he said IF about 50 times in his post, and said that there probably wasnt offers out there to that extent right now. You just repeated a stance that he acknowledged.

If I write a post that is based entirely on "If Alex Rios develops a work ethic"...I have a feeling people would scoff at it.

[Milkman delivers]

Dude, come on. Russ has a point.

[Jerksticks]

I'm not buying the "dominant rotation" part, but I will say that kw has been adept recently at finding good starting pitching. IMO, if all works out we have a couple #2s (danks/sale/nestor) and a couple #3/4 types (Floyd/Humber/) with backend guys in Stewart/axelrod/etc. The prob with what we currently have is the timelines don't mesh. By the time Nestor is established in the bigs Floyd might be gone. Sale has talent for sure, but can it translate to being a starter (a lessor worry of mine) and can he stay healthy over 180+ innings (huge worry of mine with his delivery). Also it's gonna take sale until 2013 to pitch more than 160 innings ap in the immediate future you're looking at a hard innings cap.

 

Danks is already #2/3 and Floyd is an solid #3, but unless someone busts out above their rough expectation (depending on who and what ya read) this org lacks win now pitchers and lacks bigtime prospects for the coming years outside sale and Nestor which isn't a huge problem...

 

BUT...

 

If one of those two doesn't pan out this org will be hurting in the quality sp dept.

 

 

Who said anything about winning now? Clearly arms need to be built up this year. But 4 out of the 5 should be able to throw around 200 in 2013, just not Sale probably. The 1 point that you do make I agree with though: If one of the two doesn't pan out we are going to be hurting.

 

 

[bigruss]

If I write a post that is based entirely on "If Alex Rios develops a work ethic"...I have a feeling people would scoff at it.

He didn't say anything as extreme as that though...

[Chicago White Sox]

If I write a post that is based entirely on "If Alex Rios develops a work ethic"...I have a feeling people would scoff at it.

Well none of us know for sure how the market for SP will look a month from now. The only thing that seems likely is that the supply side of the SP market will decrease as we get closer to spring training. So if there are still a few teams with a demand for SP at this point and the number of suppliers has gone down, it would be reasonable to expect the cost to acquire SP to go up. This is just basic economics.

 

Obviously I don't know how many teams will have pitching to trade or will be looking to buy pitching by late January. However, IF the market shifts in the right direction for us and a team is desperate enough to offer us two quality SP prospects I'd take it if I were KW.

 

I'm not saying this will happen and I'm definitely not saying this offer is on the table at the moment. I'm just stating that IF I can eventually get such an offer IN THE FUTURE then I would be willing to trade Floyd. That's the price it would take for me to move him now. Otherwise, I'd probably wait to the deadline to deal him. He's our most valuable tradable asset and I'd like to use him to get some young pitching.

[Jerksticks]

Well none of us know for sure how the market for SP will look a month from now. The only thing that seems likely is that the supply side of the SP market will decrease as we get closer to spring training. So if there are still a few teams with a demand for SP at this point and the number of suppliers has gone down, it would be reasonable to expect the cost to acquire SP to go up. This is just basic economics.

 

Obviously I don't know how many teams will have pitching to trade or will be looking to buy pitching by late January. However, IF the market shifts in the right direction for us and a team is desperate enough to offer us two quality SP prospects I'd take it if I were KW.

 

I'm not saying this will happen and I'm definitely not saying this offer is on the table at the moment. I'm just stating that IF I can eventually get such an offer IN THE FUTURE then I would be willing to trade Floyd. That's the price it would take for me to move him now. Otherwise, I'd probably wait to the deadline to deal him. He's our most valuable tradable asset and I'd like to use him to get some young pitching.

 

I agree, and I don't think KW will trade him prematurely just because of his salary either. Trading him must bring back at least a prospect to replace him and I like your idea of 2. If you want him you can pay for him, otherwise we'll keep his cheap ass.

[Balta1701]

Well none of us know for sure how the market for SP will look a month from now. The only thing that seems likely is that the supply side of the SP market will decrease as we get closer to spring training. So if there are still a few teams with a demand for SP at this point and the number of suppliers has gone down, it would be reasonable to expect the cost to acquire SP to go up. This is just basic economics.

 

Obviously I don't know how many teams will have pitching to trade or will be looking to buy pitching by late January. However, IF the market shifts in the right direction for us and a team is desperate enough to offer us two quality SP prospects I'd take it if I were KW.

 

I'm not saying this will happen and I'm definitely not saying this offer is on the table at the moment. I'm just stating that IF I can eventually get such an offer IN THE FUTURE then I would be willing to trade Floyd. That's the price it would take for me to move him now. Otherwise, I'd probably wait to the deadline to deal him. He's our most valuable tradable asset and I'd like to use him to get some young pitching.

The other thing that has been happening rapidly is that the demand side of the pitching market seems to have vanished as well. The Nats, Rangers, Reds, and Angels have added the SP they needed, and Boston and NYY just haven't gotten into it at all, seeming to prefer sticking with what they have or to look for bargain basement additions.

 

Personally, I'd say that compared to where things were in November, the demand for SP seems to have dried up more, thanks to guys like Gio and Latos appearing on the market when people didn't expect them to be.

 

If we go into the season as-is, then the kind of offer we'd be willing to accept for Floyd is going to depend on what the team does. Unfortunately, we've already seen recently what happens when we try to wait on the market for a pitcher to develop, we wind up resigning the guy because the trade market didn't develop. And frankly, that was for a better pitcher, even if there's a cost difference of $10 million between the 2.

 

Hypothetically, if an offer appears that is significantly better than what is available now, then I think we'd all be willing to move him...but right now that isn't there, and counting on things to get better seems to run counter to current trends.

[Chicago White Sox]

The other thing that has been happening rapidly is that the demand side of the pitching market seems to have vanished as well. The Nats, Rangers, Reds, and Angels have added the SP they needed, and Boston and NYY just haven't gotten into it at all, seeming to prefer sticking with what they have or to look for bargain basement additions.

 

Personally, I'd say that compared to where things were in November, the demand for SP seems to have dried up more, thanks to guys like Gio and Latos appearing on the market when people didn't expect them to be.

 

If we go into the season as-is, then the kind of offer we'd be willing to accept for Floyd is going to depend on what the team does. Unfortunately, we've already seen recently what happens when we try to wait on the market for a pitcher to develop, we wind up resigning the guy because the trade market didn't develop. And frankly, that was for a better pitcher, even if there's a cost difference of $10 million between the 2.

 

Hypothetically, if an offer appears that is significantly better than what is available now, then I think we'd all be willing to move him...but right now that isn't there, and counting on things to get better seems to run counter to current trends.

Until the Yankees, Red Sox, & Blue Jays acquire SP, I think it's premature to say the demand for SP has vanished. Yes, there are now less teams looking for SP. The demand for SP was so high this offseason that several teams decided to jump into the market and sell off their young, cost-controlled starters. The price for guys like Latos, Jurrjens, Cahill, Gonzalez, etc was insane but obviously worth it to some teams. However, just because the Yankees & Red Sox didn't want to pay the price for one of those guys, doesn't mean they aren't looking for legitimate upgrades to their rotation. Floyd isn't going to cost three or four top propsects. So once the remaining good free agent starters like Jackson & Oswalt sign deals, Floyd will become a very attractive option to teams that still have a need for SP.

 

IMO, if at least two of the Red Sox, Yankees, & Blue Jays haven't filled that need elsewhere, then the market for Floyd will improve. Then it's up to KW to leverage those AL East teams against one another and try to get the best package possible. Obviously I don't know for certain if these teams will still need SP in a month or so, but right now it seems like a decent possibility that a couple of them might. I don't know why you think that's so far-fetched.

[Balta1701]

I don't know why you think that's so far-fetched.

I'd say the biggest argument to me that these teams won't be willing to pay is that they weren't willing to pay for Danks, who is a better pitcher. Yes, he's more expensive/hits FA earlier, but if you're a team like Boston/NY, the difference between the 2 is what, $5-7 million saved before they hit FA? That's not a huge financial difference if I'm in their shoes. For Torotno it would be more important, but not Boston/NYC.

 

If I'm sitting in Boston and NYC's shoes, I'd have put a better offer out for Danks than Floyd, unless my scouts had some big red flag, because I could have lived with the contract he just signed with the ChiSox, and I would feel like I was getting a better pitcher.

[baseball17]

Does no one see Leesman as being a part of the rotation - or even the bullpen? What about Remenowski - I think he could be a good innings eater in the BP. It's sad that hardly any of our minor leaguers get any love.

[Chicago White Sox]

Does no one see Leesman as being a part of the rotation - or even the bullpen? What about Remenowski - I think he could be a good innings eater in the BP. It's sad that hardly any of our minor leaguers get any love.

Leesman has a shot of being a solid left-handed reliever, but I don't think he'll ever be a starter at the major league level. If Thornton gets moved before spring training, Leesman, Veal, & possibly Santiago will be the favorites to replace him.

 

Not a fan of soft-tossing relief prospects like Remenowski even if they've had minor league success. While it's not a fair comparison, I have bad memories of Ehren Wasserman everytime I hear his name.

[iamshack]

I'd say the biggest argument to me that these teams won't be willing to pay is that they weren't willing to pay for Danks, who is a better pitcher. Yes, he's more expensive/hits FA earlier, but if you're a team like Boston/NY, the difference between the 2 is what, $5-7 million saved before they hit FA? That's not a huge financial difference if I'm in their shoes. For Torotno it would be more important, but not Boston/NYC.

 

If I'm sitting in Boston and NYC's shoes, I'd have put a better offer out for Danks than Floyd, unless my scouts had some big red flag, because I could have lived with the contract he just signed with the ChiSox, and I would feel like I was getting a better pitcher.

Everything I have read coming out of NY is that the Yankees really wanted Danks but were betting on the price coming down. Kenny must have had an idea he could get him signed and was trying to get a value for him that would outweigh having him here for 5 years at $13/annually. He demanded two of their top three prospects and never wavered.

[ScottyDo]

Everything I have read coming out of NY is that the Yankees really wanted Danks but were betting on the price coming down. Kenny must have had an idea he could get him signed and was trying to get a value for him that would outweigh having him here for 5 years at $13/annually. He demanded two of their top three prospects and never wavered.

I, for one, am totally fine with that approach. You want to let them know that you're interested in dealing, but there is a price below which you will not step. The signing indicated to all parties that the Sox are not desperate, and that if you want our talent, you will have to pay a fair price. We sold tragically low on Swisher in part because he had a bad season, but also because everyone in the world knew that the relationship was a complete disaster. That whole scenario was rightly panned by Sox fans, but this is, IMO, the way things ought to be done. Don't broadcast desperation at all, and be willing to follow through if the market dictates you withdraw.

[Real]

it has to be said, if the offense comes out slow as hell again, the entire staff (starters and bullpen) will suffer

 

it's so important to have an offense that can at least come close to matching the talent of your rotation. danks cant be asked to pitch more than 6 innings a game, so we're already at a disadvantage there, we don't have buehrle anymore to go 7+, Peavy is a huge question mark for how effective he'll be or how many innings per outing he can give us, Sale will probably be just as likely to be dominant this year as he will be to get absolutely lit up in his first full year as a starter

 

IMO since our offense hasn't really been upgraded, we're gonna be really bad next year

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The Yankees for once are being cost efficient . They don't want to pay the luxury tax and seem willing to hit the recycle bin a la KW, like they did with Colon and Garcia. However they are always in win now mode and waiting with them is very prudent. Get what you want from them . They are a rich team with decent prospects and wait on them to fail and needing someone for the pennant push.

 

In the mean time get Sale, Molina, Axlerod, Santiago, and Humber starters innings and be ready for 2013.

Edited December 29, 2011 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

Is it Axelrod or Axlerod?

 

I keep seeing it written both ways, but guessing it's the former.

Edited December 29, 2011 by caulfield12

[Rowand44]

Is it Axelrod or Axlerod?

 

I keep seeing it written both ways, but guessing it's the former.

Former.

[kwolf68]

Right now so much of this scenario depends on a player with 22 innings above A-ball level. EVERY team has some prospect who is the 2nd coming...in fact, most organizations have several of those guys. When in reality, most don't make it...but we have ONE guy and low and behold, he's gonna make it.

Edited December 29, 2011 by kwolf68

[southsider2k5]

Right now so much of this scenario depends on a player with 22 innings above A-ball level. EVERY team has some prospect who is the 2nd coming...in fact, most organizations have several of those guys. When in reality, most don't make it...but we have ONE guy and low and behold, he's gonna make it.

 

Welcome to the joys of rebuilding.