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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 09:29 AM)
I don't think we know enough about Adams yet, but there's no way Montas > Davidson at this point.

You are probably in love with Davidson's potential, and you probably loved the Reed trade when it happened. Fact is, his average was between .240 and .280 throughout his minor league career, going back to 2009. Then he goes downhill this year. Fact is, this is his 6th year of pro ball. Fact is, the star of Montas appears to be rising, and I say this objectively. He has a long way to go, but he fits the description of prospect; Davidson does not. Things might change later for both players, but right now any ML franchise would love to have Montas; Davidson, not so much.

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QUOTE (oldsox @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 10:51 AM)
You are probably in love with Davidson's potential, and you probably loved the Reed trade when it happened. Fact is, his average was between .240 and .280 throughout his minor league career, going back to 2009. Then he goes downhill this year. Fact is, this is his 6th year of pro ball. Fact is, the star of Montas appears to be rising, and I say this objectively. He has a long way to go, but he fits the description of prospect; Davidson does not. Things might change later for both players, but right now any ML franchise would love to have Montas; Davidson, not so much.

 

The fact is you are basing this on about five starts for Montas, while dismissing an entire year of Davidson without any thought. While you also note that Davidson is in his sixth year of pro-ball Montas is in his fifth, and hadn't really put up numbers to look at until this year. It probably isn't a bad idea to let the guy go a few months before declaring him a better prospect than a guy who was a BA Top 100 guy for last year.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 10:04 AM)
The fact is you are basing this on about five starts for Montas, while dismissing an entire year of Davidson without any thought. While you also note that Davidson is in his sixth year of pro-ball Montas is in his fifth, and hadn't really put up numbers to look at until this year. It probably isn't a bad idea to let the guy go a few months before declaring him a better prospect than a guy who was a BA Top 100 guy for last year.

Montas put up a FIP of 2 and a half at rookie ball in 2012.

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QUOTE (oldsox @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 10:51 AM)
You are probably in love with Davidson's potential, and you probably loved the Reed trade when it happened. Fact is, his average was between .240 and .280 throughout his minor league career, going back to 2009. Then he goes downhill this year. Fact is, this is his 6th year of pro ball. Fact is, the star of Montas appears to be rising, and I say this objectively. He has a long way to go, but he fits the description of prospect; Davidson does not. Things might change later for both players, but right now any ML franchise would love to have Montas; Davidson, not so much.

 

Davidson will never be a .300 average guy, that is not his appeal. His value is his power for doubles and homers at a premium position. He is right at or above in all the key percentages this year:

 

2014:

HR% 3.6

XBH% 47.2

BB% 8.6

BABIP .246

 

Minor League Career

HR% 3.2

XBH% 40.5

BB% 9.5

BABIP .306

 

Notice the big difference in BABIP? Do you think that it would stay around .250 because of 200 plate appearances or return to his career norm over nearly 3,00 plate appearances?

 

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1) Rodon

2) Anderson

3) Johnson

4) Hawkins

5) Davidson

6) Danish

7) Adams

8) Montas

9) Beck

10) Adolfo

 

Man, if Beck and EJ can bounce back...along with Rodon, Adams, Danish and Montas we could see some reinforcements on the way for Q and Sale

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QUOTE (oldsox @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 09:51 AM)
You are probably in love with Davidson's potential, and you probably loved the Reed trade when it happened. Fact is, his average was between .240 and .280 throughout his minor league career, going back to 2009. Then he goes downhill this year. Fact is, this is his 6th year of pro ball. Fact is, the star of Montas appears to be rising, and I say this objectively. He has a long way to go, but he fits the description of prospect; Davidson does not. Things might change later for both players, but right now any ML franchise would love to have Montas; Davidson, not so much.

 

Davidson is two and half bad months off of being a Top 100 prospect in the country. His current task is figuring out AAA.

 

Montas is in the midst of his first good two-month stretch ever. His current task is managing to complete an entire good season in single A. Fact his, his ERAs all of the past years in the Rookie league and short season A leagues are: 5.70, 4.56, 3.98, 4.26, and 9.55.

 

You (and many others on this board) are way, way too fickle on these guys. Two bad months doesn't bust a guy and two good months doesn't annoint a guy. I'm glad Montas is figuring it out, but there's just no argument at all that he's a better prospect than Davidson at this point. Maybe at the end of the year if nothing changes.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 11:06 AM)
I don't know how a 2nd round pick that hasn't pitched above HS can possibly be on a top 10 list at this time.

 

That is either crazy, or the Sox current prospects are even worse than we thought.

 

I agree, everyone's just excited.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 12:06 PM)
I don't know how a 2nd round pick that hasn't pitched above HS can possibly be on a top 10 list at this time.

 

That is either crazy, or the Sox current prospects are even worse than we thought.

 

That's the very essence of "prospect". Part of it is what have you proven already, but the other major part is what do you have the potential to produce?

 

Its the very reason guys like Hawkins and Trayce Thompson can rocket up and down prospect lists. Its the reason that guys like Micah Johnson, Sanchez, and Beck can stagnate no matter how high their batting average's appear or how low their ERA's drop.

 

You can see a clear distinction between folks on here who view production at the minor league level over potential, and vice versa. Its fun seeing the difference in thought processes. But saying others are crazy with their lists because of a different view isn't fair. Adams has the potential to be a #1 starter, and we haven't legitimately gotten our hands on many of those over the years. Usually we are drafting in the middle of the draft, and end up with guys that produced in college and have the potential as #2-#3 type starters, or completely raw athletes in the OF. This is exciting as hell.

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QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 01:45 PM)
That's the very essence of "prospect". Part of it is what have you proven already, but the other major part is what do you have the potential to produce?

 

Its the very reason guys like Hawkins and Trayce Thompson can rocket up and down prospect lists. Its the reason that guys like Micah Johnson, Sanchez, and Beck can stagnate no matter how high their batting average's appear or how low their ERA's drop.

 

You can see a clear distinction between folks on here who view production at the minor league level over potential, and vice versa. Its fun seeing the difference in thought processes. But saying others are crazy with their lists because of a different view isn't fair. Adams has the potential to be a #1 starter, and we haven't legitimately gotten our hands on many of those over the years. Usually we are drafting in the middle of the draft, and end up with guys that produced in college and have the potential as #2-#3 type starters, or completely raw athletes in the OF. This is exciting as hell.

I love it when you post.

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QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 01:45 PM)
That's the very essence of "prospect". Part of it is what have you proven already, but the other major part is what do you have the potential to produce?

 

Its the very reason guys like Hawkins and Trayce Thompson can rocket up and down prospect lists. Its the reason that guys like Micah Johnson, Sanchez, and Beck can stagnate no matter how high their batting average's appear or how low their ERA's drop.

 

You can see a clear distinction between folks on here who view production at the minor league level over potential, and vice versa. Its fun seeing the difference in thought processes. But saying others are crazy with their lists because of a different view isn't fair. Adams has the potential to be a #1 starter, and we haven't legitimately gotten our hands on many of those over the years. Usually we are drafting in the middle of the draft, and end up with guys that produced in college and have the potential as #2-#3 type starters, or completely raw athletes in the OF. This is exciting as hell.

Great post. These lists are always going to be based on the most current information and as a result will tend to be fickle. As for ranking Montas over Davidson, I wasn't the biggest fan of Matt to begin with (still like the trade) and his struggles haven't instilled any more confidence. Montas on the other hand has incredibly stuff and has been absolutely dominant for a short, but recent stretch. Right now I'm taking him over the guy who has had contact issues in the past and currently has a 34.5 K rate.

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1. Rodon

 

2. Adams

 

3. Danish

 

4. Hawkins

 

5. Anderson

 

6. Johnson

 

7. Beck

 

8. Adolfo

 

9. Castillo

 

10. May

 

I went with two wild cards at 8 and 9 but not without solid reasoning. I think that Micker will be a top 5 prospect maybe even top three when the season is over. I like his ceiling too much and he has elite power and bat speed according to the scouting reports and I like that combo too much. With Castillo when the Sox signed him in 2012, the word on the street was that he had a advanced feel for hitting and power, I can not wait to see him play for the AZL team this year.

 

Adams is very projectable and I think that he will add more velocity and develop into a solid front of the rotation starter for the Sox down the line. The same goes for Danish who had a solid outing the Sox this week.

Edited by Joshua Strong
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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 6, 2014 -> 10:40 PM)
1. Rodon

 

2. Adams

 

3. Danish

 

4. Hawkins

 

5. Anderson

 

6. Johnson

 

7. Beck

 

8. Adolfo

 

9. Castillo

 

10. May

 

I went with two wild cards at 8 and 9 but not without solid reasoning. I think that Micker will be a top 5 prospect maybe even top three when the season is over. I like his ceiling too much and he has elite power and bat speed according to the scouting reports and I like that combo too much. With Castillo when the Sox signed him in 2012, the word on the street was that he had a advanced feel for hitting and power, I can not wait to see him play for the AZL team this year.

 

Adams is very projectable and I think that he will add more velocity and develop into a solid front of the rotation starter for the Sox down the line. The same goes for Danish who had a solid outing the Sox this week.

 

That's one of the worst lists I've seen. How Davidson, Sanchez, Montas, Ravelo, Trey isn't on that list is bad.

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At this point I think someone spiked my Montas Kool Aid....

 

1. Rodon

 

2. M. Johnson

 

3. Anderson

 

4. Montas

 

5. Davidson

 

6. Danish

 

7. Hawkins

 

8. Sanchez

 

9. Beck

 

10. Tie between Adam Lopez, Chris Bassit, and Micker Adolfo. Haven't seen any of em yet this year, but I like em all.

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Do those putting Chris Beck high up on their lists know he has struck out a mere 35 batters in 75 AA innings this year? Granted there's a possible explanation in terms of concentrating on his fastball, and he seems to get a lot of groundballs, but that still scares me. Especially coming off a season when he struck out just 57 in nearly 120 innings at high-A.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 7, 2014 -> 08:37 AM)
Do those putting Chris Beck high up on their lists know he has struck out a mere 35 batters in 75 AA innings this year? Granted there's a possible explanation in terms of concentrating on his fastball, and he seems to get a lot of groundballs, but that still scares me. Especially coming off a season when he struck out just 57 in nearly 120 innings at high-A.

 

Read up on him, and why his K numbers are artificially low.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 7, 2014 -> 09:01 AM)
I've read it, I touched on it above. I still think it's a very low strikeout number, even with predominantly fastball usage.

 

Seconded. At some point the "he's working on something" explanations have to translate to results. Hoping it happens because the groundball rate is pretty good.

Edited by DirtySox
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QUOTE (DirtySox @ Jun 7, 2014 -> 09:37 AM)
Seconded. At some point the "he's working on something" explanations have to translate to results. Hoping it happens because the groundball rate is pretty good.

 

If the "he's working on his fastball" explanation is true, the strike out numbers won't be there.

 

I read an article from last month, it may be the article talked about above, that he didn't throw a single breaking ball until the 5th in a game. Now I don't know how often this happens but if it's often I can understand the low K numbers.

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