2015 Offseason

[GreatScott82]

For all the age discriminators out there, have you looked at Victor's numbers over the past 3 seasons in Detroit??? The dude can rake! I would LOVE to have him as our full time DH next year.

[Balta1701]

For all the age discriminators out there, have you looked at Victor's numbers over the past 3 seasons in Detroit??? The dude can rake! I would LOVE to have him as our full time DH next year.

You realize that he missed the entire 2012 season with injury so his numbers that season include 0 hits, 0 home runs, 0 runs scored, and 0 RBI?

 

His numbers last year included a 112 OPS+. He only hit 14 home runs last year, 28 this year. His numbers this year are spectacular. His numbers last year contributed about as much offensively as Adam Dunn the last couple years. The year before that, injured.

[LDF]

That's the problem. After Quintana in value, you have Eaton and Avisail Garcia, arguably.

 

RF and LF, along with C and 2B are the positions most in need of improvement statistically...and of course DH.

 

We have a solution for 2B internally, 3B and probably Flowers sticks at catcher even though there are some possible improvements but a hard time matching up for a trade unless you deal Alexei.

 

After Garcia/Eaton/Alexei, the players with the most value are Tim Anderson, Tyler Danish and Frank Montas in the minors, along with Rodon and Adams obviously. Courtney Hawkins would probably be #4, arguably.

 

Davidson and Erik Johnson you have no choice but to hold onto and hope and pray for rebound seasons.

 

I understand what you are saying and in some way I agree. the one point I do not agree is avi. he still

hasn't hasn't proven anything. the players in the minors may not get the sox a lot. I rather hold

onto them.

 

the key in this whole discussion, which I truly enjoyed, is what edict will come from JR.

[LDF]

You realize that he missed the entire 2012 season with injury so his numbers that season include 0 hits, 0 home runs, 0 runs scored, and 0 RBI?

 

His numbers last year included a 112 OPS+. He only hit 14 home runs last year, 28 this year. His numbers this year are spectacular. His numbers last year contributed about as much offensively as Adam Dunn the last couple years. The year before that, injured.

 

without talking about players who are in their option yrs, why not look or kick the tire so speak on

Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy or even Nelson Cruz. players who can play multi position as well dh.

[caulfield12]

I understand what you are saying and in some way I agree. the one point I do not agree is avi. he still

hasn't hasn't proven anything. the players in the minors may not get the sox a lot. I rather hold

onto them.

 

the key in this whole discussion, which I truly enjoyed, is what edict will come from JR.

 

Sure, you can make a debate that Conor Gillaspie would be the next player on the roster you could make a good argument who has the most value, vs. a rusty Garcia coming off that injury in April.

 

Garcia was a consensus Top 100 prospect, ahead of Davidson but not in the Top 50.

 

Conor was close to a first round draft pick, but blocked by Sandoval for most of his SF career.

 

 

I think most on the board would argue for taking Garcia if they were an opposing GM (based on potential), whereas 1/3rd or maybe even 40% would prefer the proven results and possible defensive improvements at a premium corner infield producter in Gillaspie. Then you have to look at their respective ages as well.

 

The problem with dealing Conor is that makes Semien/Davidson your starters, or you make a move for Sandoval/Hanley Ramirez or maybe Headley and spend a lot of money that may or may not give you more than marginal improvement, especially when you consider the backside of those expected contracts.

[LDF]

Sure, you can make a debate that Conor Gillaspie would be the next player on the roster you could make a good argument who has the most value, vs. a rusty Garcia coming off that injury in April.

 

Garcia was a consensus Top 100 prospect, ahead of Davidson but not in the Top 50.

 

Conor was close to a first round draft pick, but blocked by Sandoval for most of his SF career.

 

 

I think most on the board would argue for taking Garcia if they were an opposing GM (based on potential), whereas 1/3rd or maybe even 40% would prefer the proven results and possible defensive improvements at a premium corner infield producter in Gillaspie. Then you have to look at their respective ages as well.

 

The problem with dealing Conor is that makes Semien/Davidson your starters, or you make a move for Sandoval/Hanley Ramirez or maybe Headley and spend a lot of money that may or may not give you more than marginal improvement, especially when you consider the backside of those expected contracts.

 

I didn't know that. btw I am not for trading conor. but for this discussion of players who has trade

value. I can see your point.

 

[Boopa1219]

Joshua is getting thrashed here, maybe for good reason, but I do agree with him on something. Danks is doing exactly what you'd figure, which is what Peavy did after his injury year too. The real test to see if he's back is 2015, and I'd be even money he's significantly better next year.

 

Thank you.

 

I dont want it to seem like I am demanding that the team trades Quintana, I'm just making a suggestiom in hopes of building and starting conversation. However like I said in the post, if I were Rick Hahn trading Quintana would be something that I would strongly consider.

[beautox]

Quintana is currently 9th in WAR for starting pitchers. Even if you don't love advanced metrics, it's quite clear that Jose is an incredible pitcher. Moving him creates yet another hole in the rotation and pushes back our competitive window another 2 to 3 years IMO.

 

I'm 100% against trading Quintana. Him, Sale, & Rodon can be the core of an elite rotation for the next 5 years. Trading him for potential impact players is a bad idea when he already is one and is already signed to a team-friendly long-term deal.

 

Agreed, If the sox need to move anything to fill their roster it should be from areas where we have surplus depth MI(Ramirez, Johnson, Sanchez, Semien & Anderson) and CI(Davidson, Ravelo & Michalczewski) in that order. As you said elite pitching is going to be focal point for this franchise for the next 5 years between Sale, Quintana & Rodon. Noesi appears to be capable 4 or 5th starter so that leaves keeping Danks or eating a portion of his salary and closing the book on him. Frankly it wouldn't surprise me to see the Sox if he can right himself next year and if he can move him without picking up much if any of his contract at all. I think they let Rodon stay down at AAA till super 2 passes to get an extra year of service out of him. Its very possible for the sox to be a dark horse in the central next year but '16 is the year when we are expecting to compete.

 

Having said all that this is what I hope Hahn's offseason looks like.

 

C - Flowers has proven he belongs at the major league level the question is in what capacity? I would still like to see if he can buy low on Grandal. If some one else is brought in, Nieto should go down to AAA and get more reps on his defense, a lot more reps.

 

DH - Let Wilkins play it out in hopes he can develop into a Garrett Jones type of player keep Viciedo as a back up option at DH/1B and emergency corner outfielder.

 

1B - Abreu

 

2B - Semien

 

SS - Sanchez

 

3B - Gillaspie with a healthy Saladino backing him up

 

LF - Garcia, his arm still plays and he is young enough to still develop into an average defender.

 

CF/RF - Rasmus sign him to a 2 year deal similar to Melky Cabrera's with the exception being a 2M buy out for '16 so 2/16

 

CF/RF - Eaton

 

Bench

UT - Saladino

C - Nieto

OF - Danks

DH - Viciedo

UT - Garcia

 

Rotation

Sale

 

Maeda / Latos

 

Quintana

 

Noesi

 

Danks

 

Bullpen

CL - Petricka

SU - Putman

SU - Miller

MR - Guerra

MR - Webb

LO - Snodgress

 

Batting order

L Eaton

R Semien

L Gilaspie

R Abreu

L Rasmus

R Garcia

L Wilkins

R Flowers

S Sanchez

 

Trade Alexei Ramirez to the yankees for the following: RHP Luis Severino, LHP Manny Banuelos & SS Jorge Mateo

[caulfield12]

Rasmus is probably going to be offered three or four years. Sure, he might be interested in a shorter-term deal, but he's worn out his welcome in two places already. Pass. Way too inconsistent.

 

Wilkins in no way, shape or form should be the everyday DH. He has to prove he can produce before you even start to consider that.

 

They have to send Nieto to BIRM or probably Charlotte to play nearly everyday...one of those two places.

 

Coming off a TJ surgery, it's going to take Saladino at least until May or June to be close to 100% to play the field (especially SS and 3B, where the throws are longer), and his bat's not going to play as more than an occasional DH (like Leury Garcia has been used this year, rarely).

 

 

Micah Johnson's more likely to be the starting 2B than Carlos Sanchez the starting SS. The problem is that trading either one of them won't get you a high quality starter unless you include Anderson and either Danish or Montas. That's not the type of trade a rebuilding team makes either, unless they're sure about their prospects not realizing their potential.

 

 

 

Sanchez has a LOT to prove to be awarded the starting SS position. And those "semi-decent prospects" for premiere veteran starters almost NEVER go to the advantage of the team trading away the likes of an Alexei Ramirez.

 

For every Texeira or Bartolo Colon prospect bounty, there are just as many that go the way of Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers or CC Sabathia from the Indians to the Brewers.

 

It's Putnam.

 

No way we are in a position to be spending that much money on a LH set-up guy coming off a career year and having to outbid 10-12 other teams. PASS.

 

 

[BaconOnAStick]

Jason Heyward will save the Sox more runs than Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson or Justin Masterson and a bounce back offensive year could easily happen.

 

I go back and forth on what his price will be in a trade. Atlanta is not as interested in resigning him as I'd expect, there may be a bit of a buyers market for a guy one year away from FA.

 

Would Gillaspie/Anderson/Danish/Hawkins do it? Maybe. The more I think about it the more I think it would, and it might even more than Atlanta would accept already.

[caulfield12]

Jason Heyward will save the Sox more runs than Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson or Justin Masterson and a bounce back offensive year could easily happen.

 

I go back and forth on what his price will be in a trade. Atlanta is not as interested in resigning him as I'd expect, there may be a bit of a buyers market for a guy one year away from FA.

 

Would Gillaspie/Anderson/Danish/Hawkins do it? Maybe. The more I think about it the more I think it would, and it might even more than Atlanta would accept already.

 

 

There's NO WAY IN HELL you give that amount of young talent up for Heyward unless he agrees to a long-term contract extension like Freddy Garcia did when he was traded by the M's to the Sox.

 

At the very least, you have to control him through 2018 and ideally 2019.

 

 

 

From a Heyward article written BEFORE the 2014 season.

 

We've been spoiled by Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Mike Trout. To have a single top prospect reach the big leagues and prove himself to be a star before he's of legal drinking age is rare, and the few who have been able to do it in the past 25 years have often proved to be among the all-time greats -- names such as Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez among them.

 

To have three of them doing it simultaneously, well, that's nearly unheard of. We are almost unquestionably living in something of a golden age of elite young offensive talent.

 

The flip side of that is that they take up so much of the air in the room that it's easy to forget those who came before them, players who have been very good but not quite on that historic level. It means the hot young names of just a few years ago now seem like old news, even if "old" is absolutely not the correct way to refer to them.

 

It means we've forgotten about Jason Heyward to some extent, because he was the Trout of just a few years ago, when he made it to the big leagues at age 20 in 2010. But, although Heyward might be somewhat under the radar right now, the confluence of forces at play involving the economics of baseball, his own age and the actions taken by his team mean he's set up to be in high demand very soon.

 

To see why Jason Heyward could be the next free agent to crack $200 million, become an Insider today.

 

www.espn.com/mlb

Edited September 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[beautox]

Rasmus is probably going to be offered three or four years. Sure, he might be interested in a shorter-term deal, but he's worn out his welcome in two places already. Pass. Way too inconsistent.

 

I highly doubt he gets more than 3 years with the third year being an option the market is weary after bj upton s*** the bed. There just aren't that many quality FAs available especially that fit what Hahn has gone on record as saying the sox need. a Left handed power bat for the outfield, seems to me like Rasmus hits all the check marks: Cheap, Younger, Left-handed, Power, Solid outfielder. If Rasmus's agent is smart he will want a short deal where he can hit free agency when he turns 30.

 

Wilkins in no way, shape or form should be the everyday DH. He has to prove he can produce before you even start to consider that.

 

Its time to put up or shut up for Wilkins, I've previously posted Jones vs. Wilkins in the minor league thread but i'll repost it here. Same age and level. Its possible he is a solid DH option or a AAAA player he needs 600+ major league ABs to determine that.

 

 

They have to send Nieto to BIRM or probably Charlotte to play nearly everyday...one of those two places.

 

Agreed if Hahn can't get a better option for starter or back up.

 

Coming off a TJ surgery, it's going to take Saladino at least until May or June to be close to 100% to play the field (especially SS and 3B, where the throws are longer), and his bat's not going to play as more than an occasional DH (like Leury Garcia has been used this year, rarely).

 

Agreed he needs to be healthy to play but Saladino destroys left handed pitching .330/.396/.543 - .939 and has the defensive tools and merit to handle a utility role especially when you factor in his age and performance, he is a great in house platoon partner for Conor. Especially in a year when we aren't competing.

 

 

Micah Johnson's more likely to be the starting 2B than Carlos Sanchez the starting SS. The problem is that trading either one of them won't get you a high quality starter unless you include Anderson and either Danish or Montas. That's not the type of trade a rebuilding team makes either, unless they're sure about their prospects not realizing their potential.

 

I disagree, Sanchez has always been regarded as the best defensive MI in the sox system till Rondon was acquired. Carlos has been mentioned time and time again as a gold glove caliber second basemen, his glove should be more than passable at SS and his profile plays up even better there and trading from a place of depth is exactly what smart rebuilding teams do. It does the sox no good if Micah is blocked by Sanchez and Semien and isn't going to be moved off of second.

 

Sanchez has a LOT to prove to be awarded the starting SS position. And those "semi-decent prospects" for premiere veteran starters almost NEVER go to the advantage of the team trading away the likes of an Alexei Ramirez.

Alexei has surplus value but this team is loaded to the gills with middle infielders and we aren't expected to compete next year, the sox will be better served moving that salary due to his age.

 

For every Texeira or Bartolo Colon prospect bounty, there are just as many that go the way of Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers or CC Sabathia from the Indians to the Brewers.

what is the point of this statement? obviously prospects bust, but that doesn't mean you stop acquiring them for assets that no longer serve a purpose in your organization. Prospects are the definition of the law of independent trials at play.

 

It's Putnam.

its 1:30 in the morning and I have a screaming/teething baby, forgive me

 

 

No way we are in a position to be spending that much money on a LH set-up guy coming off a career year and having to outbid 10-12 other teams. PASS.

We spent nearly that much money on Crain and thats the going rate for set up men on the market. The sox payroll next year is $46,166,666, they should easily be able to add 40-60M to replicate their '14 payroll.

 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I don't understand the obsession with trading Q. With that said there's only a few I'd entertain it for. And that's Stanton. I'm not interested in trading for prospects. I love Q and think he's definitely a number 2 and is proving that statistically. The issue is we lack depth at starting pitching in our organization.

 

 

But I'd like to know where any of this Stanton stuff came from. Are we said to have been talking to or planning to talk to the marlins about him? He's definitely gota re-sign here if we did deal for him.

[GreatScott82]

You realize that he missed the entire 2012 season with injury so his numbers that season include 0 hits, 0 home runs, 0 runs scored, and 0 RBI?

 

His numbers last year included a 112 OPS+. He only hit 14 home runs last year, 28 this year. His numbers this year are spectacular. His numbers last year contributed about as much offensively as Adam Dunn the last couple years. The year before that, injured.

You got me there. However, I've always been a fan of VMart. I wouldn't hate the idea of bringing him here. The dude can rake. Some guys seem to get better with age.

[Balta1701]

You got me there. However, I've always been a fan of VMart. I wouldn't hate the idea of bringing him here. The dude can rake. Some guys seem to get better with age.

Remember how at age 35, AJ Pierzynski jumped from 8 home runs the previous season to 28 home runs, and the Sox let him go the next year? He was a solid regular the next year, still hit a good number of home runs, but his OPS dropped by 100 points and he hit the DL for the first time in like a decade.

 

That's kind of what I'd guess for Victor unless there's another major injury. He's having an incredible power season, but he's doing so at age 36 and it stands out compared to his entire career. He's hit more HR already this year than he has any other year of his career. He's slugging higher this year than any year of his career. He's doing that at age 36. That's almost a perfect example of a guy you'd be surprised if he ever did that again.

 

If you're signing him, you don't even look at this season. Look at the .285-300 average, 8-15 home runs, and .825-.850 OPS he gave in years prior to this year and ask yourself what you'd pay for that. Is that worth your 2nd round pick plus a deal that pays similar to Adam Dunn but is a bit shorter? Is that going to put the team over the top next year? Is that really that much better than we could get out of platooning some of the young guys we have in what suddenly is a system deep with nearly-MLB ready infielders?

[caulfield12]

Has anyone seen anything defensively from Sanchez so far (at 2B) to indicate he's even better than Gordon Beckham (stretching to use the term Gold Glove caliber in a league with Robinson Cano)???

[Quin]

Jason Heyward will save the Sox more runs than Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson or Justin Masterson and a bounce back offensive year could easily happen.

 

I go back and forth on what his price will be in a trade. Atlanta is not as interested in resigning him as I'd expect, there may be a bit of a buyers market for a guy one year away from FA.

 

Would Gillaspie/Anderson/Danish/Hawkins do it? Maybe. The more I think about it the more I think it would, and it might even more than Atlanta would accept already.

 

There is no way I'd give them both Danish and Anderson.

[witesoxfan]

Joshua is getting thrashed here, maybe for good reason, but I do agree with him on something. Danks is doing exactly what you'd figure, which is what Peavy did after his injury year too. The real test to see if he's back is 2015, and I'd be even money he's significantly better next year.

 

This is Danks's second year back from surgery though. Peavy was absolutely fantastic his 2nd year back from surgery. At one point do we conclude that Danks's talent has changed and he's no better than a #4 starter?

 

 

[caulfield12]

This is Danks's second year back from surgery though. Peavy was absolutely fantastic his 2nd year back from surgery. At one point do we conclude that Danks's talent has changed and he's no better than a #4 starter?

 

You also have to look at the fact that his velocity has been up in the last couple of months (90-91 quite a bit), but he's having trouble commanding it location-wise.

 

The odds of pushing all the back up to 92-93 consistently aren't very good.

 

You just can't pitch up in the zone with the kind of stuff he's featuring right now or you're going to get tattooed. It's not by sheer coincidence that he's leading the AL and probably all of MLB in homers allowed.

 

Maybe if you stick him out in SF, Seattle, SD...he'd be a lot more effective, like Richard and Stults with the Padres.

[SoxAce]

Remember how at age 35, AJ Pierzynski jumped from 8 home runs the previous season to 28 home runs, and the Sox let him go the next year? He was a solid regular the next year, still hit a good number of home runs, but his OPS dropped by 100 points and he hit the DL for the first time in like a decade.

 

That's kind of what I'd guess for Victor unless there's another major injury. He's having an incredible power season, but he's doing so at age 36 and it stands out compared to his entire career. He's hit more HR already this year than he has any other year of his career. He's slugging higher this year than any year of his career. He's doing that at age 36. That's almost a perfect example of a guy you'd be surprised if he ever did that again.

Funny you mention A.J. I kept looking at Paul Konerko's age 35 and 36 (and 37 to go even further) seasons a couple of days ago. Kind of similar with what you were saying. Still solid at 36, but not close to the year he had at age 35

[NorthSideSox72]

This is Danks's second year back from surgery though. Peavy was absolutely fantastic his 2nd year back from surgery. At one point do we conclude that Danks's talent has changed and he's no better than a #4 starter?

You know what? You're right, for some reason I was thinking it was only his first full year back. But he really did have most of 2013 (though at 130-ish IP), so this is (mostly) his second season back. He should have been better by now, injury-recovery-wise.

 

[Eminor3rd]

I don't see any reason why we should expect Peavy and Danks' rehab paths to be related.

[witesoxfan]

You know what? You're right, for some reason I was thinking it was only his first full year back. But he really did have most of 2013 (though at 130-ish IP), so this is (mostly) his second season back. He should have been better by now, injury-recovery-wise.

 

I mean, it goes back to our discussion at the trade deadline - unless someone is willing to eat the whole deal (or most of it), it won't make sense for the Sox to trade him. They aren't overflowing with depth in the minors for starting pitchers and it doesn't make sense to pay Danks to pitch for someone else.

 

I still think swapping him and Edwin Jackson makes a lot of sense.

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't see any reason why we should expect Peavy and Danks' rehab paths to be related.

Well Peavy's injury was atypical, but the general rule on pitchers who have surgery and miss a year (or most of one anyway) is that the first full year back they just aren't themselves. All they are really doing is building up strength and getting back to form. It's a common pattern.

 

But as I also said, I was incorrect about Danks' timing, he did actually pitch most of 2013.

 

[Balta1701]

Well Peavy's injury was atypical, but the general rule on pitchers who have surgery and miss a year (or most of one anyway) is that the first full year back they just aren't themselves. All they are really doing is building up strength and getting back to form. It's a common pattern.

 

But as I also said, I was incorrect about Danks' timing, he did actually pitch most of 2013.

I feel like the general rule with pitchers who struggle with shoulder injuries is that they aren't themselves for many years, if ever.