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BigHurt3515

Abreu Signs 3/$50M Extension

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34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If they don’t sign Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel or even Hamels...and this is (indirectly) given as part of the excuse, that’s where a lot of posters are going to have a problem.

And there’s the whole issue of (needlessly) blocking Vaughn at 1B OR him DHing and preventing Grandal from getting at-bats there to keep him as well rested as possible in the second half of seasons (especially during July/August Chicago weather.)

Absolutely if Hahn thinks signing Abreu with no other big moves going forward makes fans happy, he is nuts.

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4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The list is long.  

The one time we needed to actually keep a veteran, we dump Thome for Kotsay and gifted the Twins another division title, just like not signing Kenny Rogers bit them in the ass in 2003.

Somehow, those damned Twins will never go away, ever since the Ozzie overly-complimentary Piranha label stuck.

Jose Paniagua Bullpen 2020!!!

Edited by caulfield12

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1 minute ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Come on guys lets let the offseason get to january before we claim this signing is limiting us

The argument is 1/3rd about this particular signing, but much more about NO LONGER “unlimited financial flexibility” from 2021 onwards.

That’s now permanently gone as a Hahn catchphrase after these last two days.

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I think this means vaughn is service timed until late april 2021 (unless he demolishes the minors and sox compete by august 2020) and then abreu goes to DH.

The deal isn't that terrible (after all just 3 years ending at 36) but imo it is 5-10m too much and third year should have been a mutual or team option.

 

Fangraphs has him projected for 2 war next year, so using the half a win age discount per year after age 30 that is 4.5 war or about 40m value.

So the sox probably overpay him by 10m here. Still not crippling, that is just like 3.5 mil overpay per year, so it shouldn't ruin the payroll. 

Edited by Dominikk85
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13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Danks...Konerko...Jose Contreras after 2006.  Dunn.  LaRoche.  Melky Cabrera.   Alex Rios.  Herrera will still get way too many chances next year.  Welington Castillo.  ETC.

And this always happens with the White Sox.

You're my favorite poster sometimes.

Contreras went on to play 2 more years in the big leagues.

Dunn had an 800 and 762 ops his last two years. His historically bad season was his first season. Dunn was a bad signing, because Dunn sucked, but he accumulated 2.5 WAR his last two years with the Sox and so cutting bait after the -2.9 season would have actually probably been a bad idea. 

Rios lol. His final season with the Sox he had 4 WAR. He played two additional seasons after.

Melky had an 800 ops  2.2 WAR final season with the Sox and played two more years in the MLB.

Konerko was literally sent to the bench for his final season.

Danks is a tough one. They kept thinking that arm would bounce back. This one could be argued. 

The guys who continued to play after the Sox really dont fit the argument being made about being so bad that no one would play you.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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53 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

To act like their pay is similar is odd though.

Abreu signed for 3 years, 46 million. Martinez is making 3 years, 62 million. Those two aren't all that close. There is a tier of pay between the two.

Jesus fucking Christ, the $4M in deferrals  aren’t worth zero so please stop presenting it that way.

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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Jesus fucking Christ, the $4M in deferrals  aren’t worth zero so please stop presenting it that way.

They are worth zero as far as the 2022 budget is concerned though. Are we all that concerned about the mil that Konerko is getting next year?

Edited by mqr
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6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Jesus fucking Christ, the $4M in deferrals  aren’t worth zero so please stop presenting it that way.

In 2023, 1 million dollars will be significantly less than the league minimum salary. That means in terms of salary compensation, with the time value of money as well, it's very very little to the team.

The impact on the actual budget for these terms (the duration of the contract) is zero. When I say terms I mean 3 years.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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47 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Could a possible benefit of this move be that we look like a very loyal organization, and that might attract other players if they are on the fence about signing with a couple teams?

Perhaps a bit of a stretch.

Personally, I think it might make Yoán more inclined to sign an extension and in that case it’s probably worth the cost (assuming it happens).

Edited by Chicago White Sox

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46 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

Yessir.  And that's about what I predicted for him as well, 2/26-28 or 3/38.  Besides, Abreu has the "Konerko" lifetime contract now.  He's never leaving the Sox.

But he got 3/$50M 🤷‍♂ 

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The Cubs had a mediocre, old catcher who many players credited as a key figure in their run to the 2016 championship.  They found so much value in his 2016 contributions (beyond the numbers), that they're now bringing him back to manage the club.

Abreu performs at a MUCH higher level than David Ross ever did.  How about we recognize that rewarding a VITAL clubhouse piece and a player who still puts up positive WAR deserves a deal that may be a year too long.  More difficult to quantify, quality leadership shouldn't be underestimated.

Those of you worried about dollars, imo, have never had the privilege of working with/for a great leader, person, and mentor.  Any game involving human beings can't be neatly reduced to an advanced mathematical equation.  Nuance exists.

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10 minutes ago, mqr said:

They are worth zero as far as the 2022 budget is concerned though. Are we all that concerned about the mil that Konerko is getting next year?

That $1M could prevent the Sox from signing Jon Jay again.

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2 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

The Cubs had a mediocre, old catcher who many players credited as a key figure in their run to the 2016 championship.  They found so much value in his 2016 contributions (beyond the numbers), that they're now bringing him back to manage the club.

Abreu performs at a MUCH higher level than David Ross ever did.  How about we recognize that rewarding a VITAL clubhouse piece and a player who still puts up positive WAR deserves a deal that may be a year too long.  More difficult to quantify, quality leadership shouldn't be underestimated.

Those of you worried about dollars, imo, have never had the privilege of working with/for a great leader, person, and mentor.  Any game involving human beings can't be neatly reduced to an advanced mathematical equation.  Nuance exists.

But can he crotch bump as effectively as Ross?

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34 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not defending the deal.

Again, I'm saying it's a slight overpay but it doesn't matter. That is my position and theres really no real risk/downside.

People acting like the sky is falling are the people I disagree with.

Honestly, I’m far more annoyed by your ridiculous defense of the deal than by the deal itself.  Saying there really is no risk is just plain dumb.  We are talking about a poor fielding, 33 year old 1B who is currently about 15% better than a league average hitter.  Refusing to acknowledge the very real possibility that he’s replacement level or worse by 2022 while eating up potentially 10% of our total payroll space is one of the most insane arguments I have ever seen on this site.  You’re obviously a smart guy, but it’s hard to take you seriously at times when you will literally defend anything & everything this organization does.

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31 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Can’t argue with that. I agree. And that’s why I preferred to go year by year with him. 

But I am excited to see what he can do with some protection in the lineup. And who knows...maybe he can become more patient with Menechino and Grandal on board. 

Trust me, I wanted him back for 2020 and maybe the protection angle helps.  At this point it is what it is, just got to hope this doesn’t slow the rest of our offseason done.

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18 minutes ago, mqr said:

They are worth zero as far as the 2022 budget is concerned though. Are we all that concerned about the mil that Konerko is getting next year?

Comparing two contracts and ignoring 8% of the total commitment of one of them seems pretty disingenuous.  Not sure why the timing of those matter, but if you’re going down that path present them in NPV instead of just discounting the deferrals to zero.

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look at RayRun said: I enjoy hearing other views - as long as they're not "Anthony Benetendi would be the best hitter on the White Sox." 

 

Who are you quoting ?

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3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Trust me, I wanted him back for 2020 and maybe the protection angle helps.  At this point it is what it is, just got to hope this doesn’t slow the rest of our offseason done.

I don’t think it will. Once we sign Wheeler, everybody will forget about this Abreu deal, and we’ll go back to planning playoff viewing parties (for the road games).

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16 minutes ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

The Cubs had a mediocre, old catcher who many players credited as a key figure in their run to the 2016 championship.  They found so much value in his 2016 contributions (beyond the numbers), that they're now bringing him back to manage the club.

Abreu performs at a MUCH higher level than David Ross ever did.  How about we recognize that rewarding a VITAL clubhouse piece and a player who still puts up positive WAR deserves a deal that may be a year too long.  More difficult to quantify, quality leadership shouldn't be underestimated.

Those of you worried about dollars, imo, have never had the privilege of working with/for a great leader, person, and mentor.  Any game involving human beings can't be neatly reduced to an advanced mathematical equation.  Nuance exists.

Yea but Jose doesn't have a "team" that reports to him and then he gets bonuses based on being a great leader and such in charge of widget quality control with the best ratio of good widgets to bad widgets in the history of the company under his watch.   

Leadership and mentor-ship and guidance matter, but you can't measure them in baseball.  And if you can't measure it...

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After Abreu moves to DH, his defensive liabilities will no longer take away from WAR. Assuming the last half of his contract is almost entirely played at DH, is it much of a stretch to get to 6 total WAR?

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Comparing two contracts and ignoring 8% of the total commitment of one of them seems pretty disingenuous.  Not sure why the timing of those matter, but if you’re going down that path present them in NPV instead of just discounting the deferrals to zero.

All I'm saying is that if anything is going to get in the White Sox way, it's the money he is actually given during the 2022 calendar year. 

The million he is given per year after that will be like 0.5% of the budget in those years. The money exists, but it really doesn't much matter. 

Edited by mqr

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41 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You're my favorite poster sometimes.

Contreras went on to play 2 more years in the big leagues.

Dunn had an 800 and 762 ops his last two years. His historically bad season was his first season. Dunn was a bad signing, because Dunn sucked, but he accumulated 2.5 WAR his last two years with the Sox and so cutting bait after the -2.9 season would have actually probably been a bad idea. 

Rios lol. His final season with the Sox he had 4 WAR. He played two additional seasons after.

Melky had an 800 ops  2.2 WAR final season with the Sox and played two more years in the MLB.

Konerko was literally sent to the bench for his final season.

Danks is a tough one. They kept thinking that arm would bounce back. This one could be argued. 

The guys who continued to play after the Sox really dont fit the argument being made about being so bad that no one would play you.

Contreras was a 2.2 fWAR pitcher for his last 2 1/2 years with the White Sox, but not close to the 2005-2006 version, which was 3.7.  I suppose that gets the sentimental Konerko/Abreu past contributions award.  Looking back retrospectively, not a total disaster, but also a shadow of the last two months of 2005 and first two months of 2006 version.

Dunn set the franchise back three years...and his only real Sox highlight was that 2012 team that collapsed the final two weeks against DET.  I guess Dallas Buyer’s Club and having the Royals end his career with OAK.

In fact, Rios and Dunn collectively killed the franchise the first half of the decade (due to 2011), and sent Buehrle and Ozzie packing...which indirectly led to the Ventura Malaise Years, Jersey Gate and Eaton/Drake Leadership Gate.

Melky Cabrera was worth 0.7 fWAR his three White Sox contract years.  A slight overpay...I guess.  Basically, about $20 million per 1 unit of fWAR.

Konerko averaged a bit under 0.6 fWAR his last four (still expensive) seasons with the White Sox.

LaRoche?  Castillo and Alonso in 2018/2019?

 

Edited by caulfield12

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2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

After Abreu moves to DH, his defensive liabilities will no longer take away from WAR. Assuming the last half of his contract is almost entirely played at DH, is it much of a stretch to get to 6 total WAR?

He'll still be subject to the penalty WAR gives for being a DH and his WAR will still be almost 100% dependent on his slash line.

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4 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

After Abreu moves to DH, his defensive liabilities will no longer take away from WAR. Assuming the last half of his contract is almost entirely played at DH, is it much of a stretch to get to 6 total WAR?

Pretty sure his defensive penalty was actually not as bad as the positional adjustment of a DH this year. So him being a bad 1B provided a small amount of value over being a DH.

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