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Twins Sign Donaldson

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Donaldson is good.  He makes the Twins better in 2020.  He is also 34 years old, and the Twins will most likely be paying him $29M in 2023 in his age 37 season.  The backend of this deal is going to hurt them - likely quite a bit.  

Its a strange allocation of resources for the Twins, but frankly, at this juncture in the offseason he was the guy that made the most sense to the spend the money on.  There is no SP left worth paying. The Twins allowing it to get to this point is what is strange.  

This may be a bit of a kick in the balls to the Sox 2020 ALC chances, but this offseason was never about building a WS contender for 2020. Its about the beginning of a 6-7 year window, and this Donaldson move really does very little to negatively impact the White Sox long term outlook.  And if Donaldson is unable to stay healthy the next two seasons - the only two in which you can reasonably expect him to earn his money - this deal is really going to hurt the Twins.

Twins fan are excited.  And they should be.  Their previous forays into expensive free agents have pretty much all failed.  The most expensive position player free agent in franchise history prior to Donaldson was a 3/$24M deal to Jason fuckin' Castro.  So of course they're going to be excited. This move also improves their IF defense quite a bit by getting Sano off 3B, but I remain unconvinced that Donaldson is anything more than an average 3B at this point, though is 2019 defensive metrics were fairly strong.

Everything will be OK Sox fans.  Twins weren't just going to standby and make no moves in what is the tailend of their window.  85 wins isn't going to win this division, so let's go out and get 90 wins and see where the chips fall.  

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Donaldson is good.  He makes the Twins better in 2020.  He is also 34 years old, and the Twins will most likely be paying him $29M in 2023 in his age 37 season.  The backend of this deal is going to hurt them - likely quite a bit.  

Its a strange allocation of resources for the Twins, but frankly, at this juncture in the offseason he was the guy that made the most sense to the spend the money on.  There is no SP left worth paying. The Twins allowing it to get to this point is what is strange.  

This may be a bit of a kick in the balls to the Sox 2020 ALC chances, but this offseason was never about building a WS contender for 2020. Its about the beginning of a 6-7 year window, and this Donaldson move really does very little to negatively impact the White Sox long term outlook.  And if Donaldson is unable to stay healthy the next two seasons - the only two in which you can reasonably expect him to earn his money - this deal is really going to hurt the Twins.

Twins fan are excited.  And they should be.  Their previous forays into expensive free agents have pretty much all failed.  The most expensive position player free agent in franchise history prior to Donaldson was a 3/$24M deal to Jason fuckin' Castro.  So of course they're going to be excited. This move also improves their IF defense quite a bit by getting Sano off 3B, but I remain unconvinced that Donaldson is anything more than an average 3B at this point, though is 2019 defensive metrics were fairly strong.

Everything will be OK Sox fans.  Twins weren't just going to standby and make no moves in what is the tailend of their window.  85 wins isn't going to win this division, so let's go out and get 90 wins and see where the chips fall.  

Truth^

Sox had a tremendous offseason and will be relevant in 2020, even if the playoffs are not necessarily likely. We have a huge influx of young talent that is big league ready and more depth than we have had in years.

Sox were wise to limit much of the spending to one year deals, providing us flexibility in free agency next offseason. 

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5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Donaldson is good.  He makes the Twins better in 2020.  He is also 34 years old, and the Twins will most likely be paying him $29M in 2023 in his age 37 season.  The backend of this deal is going to hurt them - likely quite a bit.  

Its a strange allocation of resources for the Twins, but frankly, at this juncture in the offseason he was the guy that made the most sense to the spend the money on.  There is no SP left worth paying. The Twins allowing it to get to this point is what is strange.  

This may be a bit of a kick in the balls to the Sox 2020 ALC chances, but this offseason was never about building a WS contender for 2020. Its about the beginning of a 6-7 year window, and this Donaldson move really does very little to negatively impact the White Sox long term outlook.  And if Donaldson is unable to stay healthy the next two seasons - the only two in which you can reasonably expect him to earn his money - this deal is really going to hurt the Twins.

Twins fan are excited.  And they should be.  Their previous forays into expensive free agents have pretty much all failed.  The most expensive position player free agent in franchise history prior to Donaldson was a 3/$24M deal to Jason fuckin' Castro.  So of course they're going to be excited. This move also improves their IF defense quite a bit by getting Sano off 3B, but I remain unconvinced that Donaldson is anything more than an average 3B at this point, though is 2019 defensive metrics were fairly strong.

Everything will be OK Sox fans.  Twins weren't just going to standby and make no moves in what is the tailend of their window.  85 wins isn't going to win this division, so let's go out and get 90 wins and see where the chips fall.  

Tail end?  Based on wishful thinking?   I guess if Berrios and Buxton elevate their games like Giolito and Moncada....then are lost after 2021, sure, but they should be strong competitors the next 2-3 seasons unless their pitching completely falls apart.

Other than Cruz, most of their position players are young/er or close to their primes.

Like the Sox, they have control of plenty of that young core, other than the two names I highlighted and Rosario.

They also have a very top-heavy farm system, somewhat similar to ours.

Edited by caulfield12
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39 minutes ago, Tony said:

Do you? 

Take the L and walk away. 

Ok after reading the post from ThunderStruck I admit I’m wrong. Donaldson did have a hip injury late in 2016 but I think saying he has been injured for most of his career may be a bit exaggerating.  I will take the L but I’m not going to walk away or stop posting and I hope that’s not what you meant by walking away. I really don’t care if your a MOD or what your title is. We should all be respecting everyone’s opinions on this board. I’m sure you command the same respect as I do so let’s move on.

Edited by maloney.adam
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1 minute ago, maloney.adam said:

Ok after reading the post from ThunderStruck I admit I’m wrong. Donaldson did have a hip injury late in 2016 but I think saying he has been injured for most of his career may be a bit exaggerating.  I will take the L but I’m not going to walk away or stop posting and I hope that’s not what you mean by walking away. I really don’t care if your a MOD or what your title is. We should all be respecting everyone’s opinions on this board. I’m sure you command the same respect as I do so let’s move on.

I meant walk away from the topic. The original poster was wrong, he was called out by a handful of people (myself included) and you doubled downed on that incorrect assessment. Nothing more. All good

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33 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Lol you don't take an L when another team signs a player that you weren't competing for.   The Twins offense is better, the Sox as a whole became a lot better over the offseason.   

 

the Sox have 19 games with the twins, they need to take care of business in the other 143 and compete with the Twins when they play them.   This division is still wide open, I'm just as excited now as I was before Donaldson signed 
 

Who cares if we were competing for a player, we are competing against the team. This move doesn't mean the Sox didn't have a better off season either, or have a better future. But it does ensure Minnesota will be right there. 

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4 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Who cares if we were competing for a player, we are competing against the team. This move doesn't mean the Sox didn't have a better off season either, or have a better future. But it does ensure Minnesota will be right there. 

I don't think it "Ensures" anything. It improves the chances of Minny being right there, but I can think of a bunch of ways that they're not. Just as I can imagine ways the White Sox aren't. 

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I'm all for the Twins getting better and teams getting better in general. Here for a fight, good games, and spectacular baseball... never rooting for teams to get 'bad'. 

 

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40 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

The original claim was that Donaldson “has been injured most of his career.”

This is simply not true.

Yeah that's just a defense mechanism by Sox fans. He's a great player and he's going to be a problem. It's up to our pitching staff to contain the damage when we play the Twins. 

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Just now, Baron said:

Yeah that's just a defense mechanism by Sox fans. He's a great player and he's going to be a problem. It's up to our pitching staff to contain the damage when we play the Twins. 

IMO - if you want to beat this Twins team, it's not even as much up to your pitching staff as it is your offense. You're going to have to win some games 10-8.

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17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't think it "Ensures" anything. It improves the chances of Minny being right there, but I can think of a bunch of ways that they're not. Just as I can imagine ways the White Sox aren't. 

The Twins are going to be right there for the division. All hell would have to break lose for that not to happen. 

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I think it’s all going to come down to which team has better pitching and catching/defense. I would like for the Sox to maybe look into adding one more arm to the pen. Maybe sign McHugh for long relief.

Edited by maloney.adam

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12 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

The Twins are going to be right there for the division. All hell would have to break lose for that not to happen. 

I mean, if they lose Berrios, their pitching is really bad.  That may be big if, but he had elbow issues last year and lost a ton of velo.  I wouldn't be shocked if his misses time this year, and there is some internal concern about his arm.  

I don't think "all hell needs to break lose" for the Twins to be a .500ish team.  Father time finally catches Cruz.  Berrios gets hurt.  Polanco, Kepler and Garver regress to the mean.  They get close to nothing out of Dick Mountain and Homer Bailey.  Luis Arraez was a flash in the pan one year wonder.  Buxton is unable to stay on the field for more than 80 games.  Obviously all of those things aren't going to happen, but its not too much of stretch to believe half of them will.    Basically everything went right for the Twins last season - chances are lightning doesn't strike twice.   

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I'm legit concerned he's going to hook up with the Twins' PED dispensers (they got some good ones) and have a monster next couple years.  This is a blow across the Sox' bow no doubt.  But nobody said it was going to be handed to them.   

And this puts more pressure on Hahn to continue to spend, continue to argue to Jerry to spend.  Let's hope this turns into a positive for the Sox long term.

 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

I mean, if they lose Berrios, their pitching is really bad.  That may be big if, but he had elbow issues last year and lost a ton of velo.  I wouldn't be shocked if his misses time this year, and there is some internal concern about his arm.  

I don't think "all hell needs to break lose" for the Twins to be a .500ish team.  Father time finally catches Cruz.  Berrios gets hurt.  Polanco, Kepler and Garver regress to the mean.  They get close to nothing out of Dick Mountain and Homer Bailey.  Luis Arraez was a flash in the pan one year wonder.  Buxton is unable to stay on the field for more than 80 games.  Obviously all of those things aren't going to happen, but its not too much of stretch to believe half of them will.    Basically everything went right for the Twins last season - chances are lightning doesn't strike twice.   

and if Gio regresses to a 3 WAR pitcher or gets hurt...I mean all the concerns about the Twins rotation apply to Chicago's as well.  I don't see an argument for saying their chances are weaker than Chicago's based on a rotation comp.  

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Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

and if Gio regresses to a 3 WAR pitcher or gets hurt...I mean all the concerns about the Twins rotation apply to Chicago's as well.  I don't see an argument for saying their chances are weaker than Chicago's based on a rotation comp.  

No one really said their chances were weaker than Chicago's, this part of the conversation started where I said "I can think of a bunch of ways Minny isn't right there just as I can think of ways the White Sox aren't". Given the choice, even though they're less experienced I'd take Chicago's starting rotation over Minny's rotation on paper easily as there's way more talent in the White Sox's rotation, but I'd take Minny's lineup again on paper because even though there's talent in the White Sox's lineup, the guys for the Twins performed so highly last year that's hard to ignore. 

When you play the season, who knows. Maybe the White Sox's pitchers all struggle and Minny's rotation steps up. Maybe Minny's lineup takes a big step back with a different baseball and Robert and Eloy are monsters. I don't have a good guess about how this season's going to go other than thinking all 3 teams have 95 win potential on paper and a personal guess that the Native American Stereotypes are the most likely to get there.

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3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

and if Gio regresses to a 3 WAR pitcher or gets hurt...I mean all the concerns about the Twins rotation apply to Chicago's as well.  I don't see an argument for saying their chances are weaker than Chicago's based on a rotation comp.  

No doubt.  Sox rotation is no for sure thing (to be clear, I didn't say it was, and wasn't really comparing the Twins to the Sox at all in that post).  But at least we have a stable of young MLB ready SP.  Obviously losing Gio would most likely kill the Sox 2020 chances as well....but to my knowledge he didn't struggle with elbow issues last year.  

Twins also don't really have anything similar to Kopech and Cease.  Graterol is interesting and will likely pitch some for the Twins in 2020, but he is more than likely a pen arm.  

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7 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Yes.

 

Abreu

2019:  1.9 fWAR

2020:  1.8 fWAR (Steamer projection)

 

Donaldson

2019:  4.9 fWAR

2020:  5.3 fWAR (Steamer projection)

Right but as you said one is a 3rd baseman and the other a 1st baseman,

Donaldson got the 2nd largest contract in MLB history for a guy 33 or older and he turned 34 a month ago. 4 years $92M guaranteed from a team he has as of yet made no contributions to. Much of the difference in WAR is due to how WAR is accumulated defensively at 3rd base as compared to 1st base if we can agree ( which we probably can't} that their offensive sides were pretty much equal. Donaldson played on a team that was much better than the White Sox.

So, yes, despite many being disappointed in what Abreu got paid and view it as an over pay if put in the proper perspective there are also quite a few posters, judging by the comments in the "rate the off season" thread, that the contract isn't as terrible .

Of course one has to look at it from more than a purely market value view to judge it that way.

Abreu is a White Sox for life and he has always wanted to be. He views the Sox as an organization with tradition for treating Cuban players well. He idolized Minoso as did Alexei Ramirez and he is doing with Moncada and Robert what Minoso did for him and Alexei. There is a lot of human value in that and you have to be pretty cold hearted if as a Sox fan if you can't recognize that and that human value translated into his contract.

Maybe there are those who want to view the contract as just what it is, an overpay based on market value. Only the money and years matter. But for those with a sense of tradition and those who recognize who the White Sox are as an organization and the role they have played and the respect they have garnered with Cubans , the Abreu contract means a lot more.

Just as Minoso is idolized by Abreu , Abreu is idolized by Moncada and Robert and maybe ,just maybe we can find a little space in our hearts to give Abreu his due as a player and as a proud member of a noble White Sox tradition.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/page/springtraining_minoso/as-mlb-heads-back-cuba-minnie-minoso-legacy-joy-lives-on

this is the link I used as a reference to write my own words on the matter.

 

 

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No one really said their chances were weaker than Chicago's, this part of the conversation started where I said "I can think of a bunch of ways Minny isn't right there just as I can think of ways the White Sox aren't". Given the choice, even though they're less experienced I'd take Chicago's starting rotation over Minny's rotation on paper easily as there's way more talent in the White Sox's rotation, but I'd take Minny's lineup again on paper because even though there's talent in the White Sox's lineup, the guys for the Twins performed so highly last year that's hard to ignore. 

When you play the season, who knows. Maybe the White Sox's pitchers all struggle and Minny's rotation steps up. Maybe Minny's lineup takes a big step back with a different baseball and Robert and Eloy are monsters. I don't have a good guess about how this season's going to go other than thinking all 3 teams have 95 win potential on paper and a personal guess that the Native American Stereotypes are the most likely to get there.

That's more than fair on paper the Sox have a lot of potential in their rotation and on paper the Twins have a lot more proven production in their lineup.  I'm putting Eloy down for 280/350/520 already in my mind and Robert with 250/300/460 and Madrigal with 280/330/400 with elite defense but those things are not etched in stone, progress isn't linear blah blah blah.

I like Chicago's MLB roster situation from 2021+ a helluva lot more but the Twins are strong in LA and you know they will find some gems to plug holes.  It's fun.  We are actually relevant again and can have these discussions.

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1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Right but as you said one is a 3rd baseman and the other a 1st baseman,

Donaldson got the 2nd largest contract in MLB history for a guy 33 or older and he turned 34 a month ago. 4 years $82M guaranteed from a team he has as of yet made no contributions to. Much of the difference in WAR is due to how WAR is accumulated defensively at 3rd base as compared to 1st base if we can agree ( which we probably can't} that their offensive sides were pretty much equal. Donaldson played on a team that was much better than the White Sox.

1. No I will not agree that a .900 OPS and a .834 OPS are equal, so you're correct we can't agree on that.

2. Well now I'm curious, who got the largest? Who's #3? Have those deals worked out for their teams?

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 Steamer:

Polanco 109
Arraez 109
Cruz 134
JD 137
Kepler 117
Sano 121
Garver 108
Rosario 110
Buxton 101

They definitely have a monster lineup, probably the best or second best in the AL. 

That rotation is very thin though and has injury risk too. The sox lineup is weaker than that but could be pretty good too and the sox rotation is much better. Won't be easy but the sox have a real shot to win the division.

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2 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

 Steamer:

Polanco 109
Arraez 109
Cruz 134
JD 137
Kepler 117
Sano 121
Garver 108
Rosario 110
Buxton 101

They definitely have a monster lineup, probably the best or second best in the AL. 

That rotation is very thin though and has injury risk too. The sox lineup is weaker than that but could be pretty good too and the sox rotation is much better. Won't be easy but the sox have a real shot to win the division.

Yeah, they have a top 3 lineup (assuming they don't regress much).. The White Sox however, I believe, will have a top 5. So I don't think there's going to be a massive gap there.

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