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Sox hire Ethan Katz per WSD

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14 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, I don't agree with this. I don't know of many TOR SPs that have shitty BB/9IP >5. I dont know of many TOR SPs with BB/9IP even at or above 4. I dont know of many TOR SPs with HR/9IP that are in the same zip code as those that Cease and Lopez have had.

Why do posters fall all over themselves to excuse Cease's incompetence? (Posters have rightly criticized Lopez, but why is Cease Teflon on this?)

 

Now, if you'd posted, "Cease and Lopez have the best potential to be COMPETENT SPs," you could have a valid argument. But any pipedreams of those two becoming TOR SPs left with their inabilities to avoid BBs and HRs, IMO.

Because Cease has 28 career starts to his name while Lopez has 87? 

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Because Cease has 28 career starts to his name while Lopez has 87? 

Cool. And how many of those 28 starts have been good ones?

More importantly, has Cease gotten better at baseball, or has he followed Fulmer, Rodon, and Lopez in getting worse at pitching since he's been here?

 

But hey, if you want to give Cease a pass after his shitty performances, and after a cavalcade of failure to develop young SPs, thats up to you.

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1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, I don't agree with this. I don't know of many TOR SPs that have shitty BB/9IP >5. I dont know of many TOR SPs with BB/9IP even at or above 4. I dont know of many TOR SPs with HR/9IP that are in the same zip code as those that Cease and Lopez have had.

Why do posters fall all over themselves to excuse Cease's incompetence? (Posters have rightly criticized Lopez, but why is Cease Teflon on this?)

 

Now, if you'd posted, "Cease and Lopez have the best potential to be COMPETENT SPs," you could have a valid argument. But any pipedreams of those two becoming TOR SPs left with their inabilities to avoid BBs and HRs, IMO.

This is so absurd. There are definitely pitchers who start baseball with ridiculous stuff, walk lots of batters early, and the figure it out. Guys like Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan are right at the top of the lists. Now before you overreact again,  of course it doesn't mean they will be that good, but that they both possess TOR arms. Now they need to get  their stuff figured out to reach that potential. 

The difference between the expectations of both Lppez and Cease are also INCREDIBLY obvious.

Cease has thrown 131 innings over 26 starts. He hasn't even registered a single full season of work yet.  

Lopez has 87 starts and 92 appearances adding up to almost 500 innings pitched.

You don't understand the difference in viewpoints on the future potential of each guy?  How? It's literally right in front of everyone,  and everyone else seems to get it.

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

This is so absurd. There are definitely pitchers who start baseball with ridiculous stuff, walk lots of batters early, and the figure it out. Guys like Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan are right at the top of the lists. Now before you overreact again,  of course it doesn't mean they will be that good, but that they both possess TOR arms. Now they need to get  their stuff figured out to reach that potential. 

The difference between the expectations of both Lppez and Cease are also INCREDIBLY obvious.

Cease has thrown 131 innings over 26 starts. He hasn't even registered a single full season of work yet.  

Lopez has 87 starts and 92 appearances adding up to almost 500 innings pitched.

You don't understand the difference in viewpoints on the future potential of each guy?  How? It's literally right in front of everyone,  and everyone else seems to get it.

So what? They've both sucked out loud, and this org has sucked at developing their young SPs.

Why should we believe that Cease, and ONLY Cease will break the established trend of prospect failure?

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6 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

So what? They've both sucked out loud, and this org has sucked at developing their young SPs.

Why should we believe that Cease, and ONLY Cease will break the established trend of prospect failure?

Where did you see anyone say that ONLY Cease is going to make it?  You are just making up things so that you can be mad about them. 

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12 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Cool. And how many of those 28 starts have been good ones?

More importantly, has Cease gotten better at baseball, or has he followed Fulmer, Rodon, and Lopez in getting worse at pitching since he's been here?

 

But hey, if you want to give Cease a pass after his shitty performances, and after a cavalcade of failure to develop young SPs, thats up to you.

We literally just got rid of the guy who failed to develop these young pitchers.  Maybe give the new guy a shot with the former top 30 prospect with than a full season of starts to his name?

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3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We literally just got rid of the guy who failed to develop these young pitchers.  Maybe give the new guy a shot with the former top 30 prospect with than a full season of starts to his name?

Get out of here with that sound and sane logic. /green

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31 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Where did you see anyone say that ONLY Cease is going to make it?  You are just making up things so that you can be mad about them. 

The issue with Cease, and why I'm concerned he might go the Lopez path, is that like Lopez, he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd think he should based on his stuff. 

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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The issue with Cease, and why I'm concerned he might go the Lopez path, is that like Lopez, he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd think he should based on his stuff. 

Yes but neither did Giolito before his changes.

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5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The issue with Cease, and why I'm concerned he might go the Lopez path, is that like Lopez, he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd think he should based on his stuff. 

He had a .238 BABIP, and a .231 BAA while pitching from behind most of the time.

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

He had a .238 BABIP, and a .231 BAA while pitching from behind most of the time.

This is indicative of really good luck. 

He had a FIP well over 5 and an xFIP over 6. 

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7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The issue with Cease, and why I'm concerned he might go the Lopez path, is that like Lopez, he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd think he should based on his stuff. 

Giolito before Katz... 2018:

6.5 k/9

4.7 bb/9

1.4 hr/9

8.6 h/9

 

All very similar numbers to Cease in 2020.

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33 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Giolito before Katz... 2018:

6.5 k/9

4.7 bb/9

1.4 hr/9

8.6 h/9

 

All very similar numbers to Cease in 2020.

That's why you don't give up on him...yet. The Sox are trying to win though and they don't have as much time to mess around with Cease as they did with Giolito and Lopez. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's why you don't give up on him...yet. The Sox are trying to win though and they don't have as much time to mess around with Cease as they did with Giolito and Lopez. 

Yea, I think that there’s a general consensus that we should require two SP this year so our pitching depth is...

Giolito

DK

New SP

New SP

Dunning / Kopech / Cease / Lopez

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4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's why you don't give up on him...yet. The Sox are trying to win though and they don't have as much time to mess around with Cease as they did with Giolito and Lopez. 

Cease has never even pitched a full season at the MLB level.  This pandemic year was supposed to the be the first.  You do not even expect a young SP to be good until it is at least his second MLB full season. 

The Sox should be nowhere near the point of giving up on Cease.  They gave up on their pitching coach, which is what they should have done.

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Why not go the Rays route, pick up a strong third starter and use the other days with openers and bulk guys. Then make those guys compete for an expanded role over the course of the year while still getting experience at major league level. Most of these guys you don't want pitching a ton of innings anyway.

For example:

Rotation: Gio, Keuchel, FA

Openers/Bulk: Dunning, Cease, Kopech, Crochet

Bullpen: FA, Bummer, Heuer, Marshall, Foster, Fry

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is indicative of really good luck. 

He had a FIP well over 5 and an xFIP over 6. 

Which is not the same as what you previously said.  His numbers are skewed by his walk numbers, not his hit numbers.

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7 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, I don't agree with this. I don't know of many TOR SPs that have shitty BB/9IP >5. I dont know of many TOR SPs with BB/9IP even at or above 4. I dont know of many TOR SPs with HR/9IP that are in the same zip code as those that Cease and Lopez have had.

Why do posters fall all over themselves to excuse Cease's incompetence? (Posters have rightly criticized Lopez, but why is Cease Teflon on this?)

 

Now, if you'd posted, "Cease and Lopez have the best potential to be COMPETENT SPs," you could have a valid argument. But any pipedreams of those two becoming TOR SPs left with their inabilities to avoid BBs and HRs, IMO.

Because tons or pitchers with the POTENTIAL to be TOR pitchers often end up just being competent. Giolito didn't exactly set the world on fire with his stats . He was basically the worst starting pitcher in baseball. After that terrible 2018 season he already had 240 MLB innings pitched. Cease has 130 MLB innings pitched . It's a game where you learn from your mistakes and experience. I don't think their odds are very high to become 1's or 2's but the potential is always there. I don't have blind optimism  but as a fan I can always hope for better.

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16 hours ago, Vulture said:

Why not go the Rays route, pick up a strong third starter and use the other days with openers and bulk guys. Then make those guys compete for an expanded role over the course of the year while still getting experience at major league level. Most of these guys you don't want pitching a ton of innings anyway.

For example:

Rotation: Gio, Keuchel, FA

Openers/Bulk: Dunning, Cease, Kopech, Crochet

Bullpen: FA, Bummer, Heuer, Marshall, Foster, Fry

I agree your listed “opener bill” pitchers need to build up innings over the next year or two to be at a point they can pitch 30 starts on the ML level. Katz may even be able to help turn around Lopez or Rodon. One veteran #3 or #4 would be valuable to bridge the gap over the next two years. Plus you can never have enough pitching depth.

The 2005 team had solid established veterans (Garcia, Contreras, Buehrle, El Duque) and a rising Garland to close out an quality rotation which remained healthy all season (McCarthy the only other pitcher to start).

Katz can lead the way and unlock the potential these pitchers already have. They just need work, experience and confidence.

Edited by South Side Hit Men

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1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I agree your listed “opener bill” pitchers need to build up innings over the next year or two to be at a point they can pitch 30 starts on the ML level. Katz may even be able to help turn around Lopez or Rodon. One veteran #3 or #4 would be valuable to bridge the gap over the next two years. Plus you can never have enough pitching depth.

The 2005 team had solid established veterans (Garcia, Contreras, Buehrle, El Duque) and a rising Garland to close out an quality rotation which remained healthy all season (McCarthy the only other pitcher to start).

Katz can lead the way and unlock the potential these pitchers already have. They just need work, experience and confidence.

Carlos Rodon will be too expensive to keep around in case a new pitching coach might figure out how to keep him on the field. There are 29 other big league pitching coaches, he can probably get a minor league contract with a spring training invite to work with most of them. 

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Carlos Rodon will be too expensive to keep around in case a new pitching coach might figure out how to keep him on the field. There are 29 other big league pitching coaches, he can probably get a minor league contract with a spring training invite to work with most of them. 

Carlos will get a major league contract.

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21 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

The issue with Cease, and why I'm concerned he might go the Lopez path, is that like Lopez, he doesn't miss as many bats as you'd think he should based on his stuff. 

But that was true for giolito too, not a lot of Ks initially. 

As long the stuff is there I think there I hope they can increase Ks with better command and pitch selection.

Cease fell behind often and also missed big with his offspeed stuff a lot so hitters wouldn't chase.

If he can get ahead more often and keep the miss margin for the offspeed stuff smaller he will get more chased too.

That of course is an if and no guarantee but there is some hope for him and I wouldn't write off lopez either.

Edited by Dominikk85

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22 hours ago, bmags said:

Yes but neither did Giolito before his changes.

When Cease threw his change up more in a couple of his starts he looked a lot better. I remember saying in a couple game threads he needed to throw more, hopefully Katz gets him on the path to using his change up more often and keeping the hitters off balance. 97-99 MPH fastball plus his change up which was mid 80s is a great combo. Throw in his breaking pitches and he can be really good if he finds his control.

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Just now, BigHurt3515 said:

When Cease threw his change up more in a couple of his starts he looked a lot better. I remember saying in a couple game threads he needed to throw more, hopefully Katz gets him on the path to using his change up more often and keeping the hitters off balance. 97-99 MPH fastball plus his change up which was mid 80s is a great combo. Throw in his breaking pitches and he can be really good if he finds his control.

With Cooper it really felt like when he tried to work with a pitcher who wasn't having success, he liked to strip him down to the bare bones and have them work primarily with the fastball.  Once they found their control, then they tried to add back their off-speed stuff next.  With Cease, I think Coop wanted to see fastball control, and had him minimize reps with the curveball until they could get him spotting the fastball.

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A guy like Cease is never going to "spot his fastball" consistently.  Cooper's emphasis on fastball is just out dated thinking.  Hey my dad believed the same thing it's just old school baseball: you establish the fastball then pitch off it.  Forget that thinking tho it's been proven that many guys have more success going away from heavy fastball usage.

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