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> Yu Darvish to Cubs, Theo making moves
ChiliIrishHammoc...
post Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:15 PM
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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:12 PM) *
Darvish will be hoping for the incentives as well haha but would a 32 year old Darvish be able to beat 4 years, $81 mill?


Well, it's HIS opt-out clause. If he has 2 great years for the Cubs, then he will be wanting to opt out, and thus he thinks he could beat 4 years/$81M. If he does bad, he won't opt out, and he gets that money anyway. So really, 4 yrs/$81M is already on the table for him, he just has to feel around if any teams can beat that offer.

This post has been edited by ChiliIrishHammock24: Feb 16, 2018 -> 01:57 AM
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soxfan2014
post Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:17 PM
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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:15 PM) *
Well, it's HIS opt-out clause. If he has 2 great years for the Cubs, then he will be wanting to opt out, and thus he thinks he could beat 3 years/$81M. If he does bad, he won't opt out, and he gets that money anyway. So really, 4 yrs/$81M is already on the table for him, he just has to feel around if any teams can beat that offer.


Which is basically what I implied and understand lol I get that it's his opt-out and didn't make it seem otherwise haha

This post has been edited by soxfan2014: Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:17 PM
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ptatc
post Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:28 PM
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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:03 PM) *
So 2 yrs/$45M is what Cubs fans and Darvish will be hoping for.

Yep. The last 4 years are like the years on Heyward's contract. Darvish will only take them if he plays poorly and the Cubs will be stuck with them if he plays poorly.
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Donaldo
post Feb 14, 2018 -> 08:45 PM
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The Cubs' rotation now has Q and Yu.
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JPR
post Feb 14, 2018 -> 09:17 PM
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QUOTE (Donaldo @ Feb 14, 2018 -> 08:45 PM) *
The Cubs' rotation now has Q and Yu.


And a whole bunch of L's
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bmags
post Feb 14, 2018 -> 09:39 PM
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QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:28 PM) *
Yep. The last 4 years are like the years on Heyward's contract. Darvish will only take them if he plays poorly and the Cubs will be stuck with them if he plays poorly.


Except Heyward was to be in his 20s getting his second big contract, Darvish will be 33. And a pitcher.
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soxfan2014
post Feb 15, 2018 -> 01:28 PM
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QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:28 PM) *
Yep. The last 4 years are like the years on Heyward's contract. Darvish will only take them if he plays poorly and the Cubs will be stuck with them if he plays poorly.


Heyward has two potential opt-outs. The first is after the 18 season and if he reaches 550 PAs in 2019, he can opt-out. Assuming no injury, he should reach the 550 but at that point it depends how well he did with the bat.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml
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ptatc
post Feb 15, 2018 -> 01:41 PM
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QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 14, 2018 -> 09:39 PM) *
Except Heyward was to be in his 20s getting his second big contract, Darvish will be 33. And a pitcher.

Still a disadvantage for the club no matter which way you spin it.
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ptatc
post Feb 15, 2018 -> 01:42 PM
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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 01:28 PM) *
Heyward has two potential opt-outs. The first is after the 18 season and if he reaches 550 PAs in 2019, he can opt-out. Assuming no injury, he should reach the 550 but at that point it depends how well he did with the bat.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml

The opt outs are still for the player only. As long as he continues the poor play he will not opt out and the Cubs are stuck with a bad contract.
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Eminor3rd
post Feb 15, 2018 -> 03:04 PM
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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 03:17 PM) *
Which is basically what I implied and understand lol I get that it's his opt-out and didn't make it seem otherwise haha


That's the crux, though. It's all about which party is the one that decides whether or not the Cubs keep paying him. There's no situation where it wouldn't be better for the Cubs if he simply didn't have the opt-out. Even if, two years from now, Darvish is worth his contract and they decide to trade him because they don't want to risk him falling off a cliff, they're still better off doing that than if he opted out. If he ends up having a catastrophic injury in year three, everyone will say "Oh well that worked out for them," but the RISK of that injury at the time of the decision was baked into his value. He's either worth more or less than 4/81 with projections included.

If he can demand more, then the Cubs are better off keeping him at that price. If he can't demand more, the Cubs still have to keep him at that price.

This post has been edited by Eminor3rd: Feb 15, 2018 -> 03:05 PM
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soxfan2014
post Feb 15, 2018 -> 03:09 PM
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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 03:04 PM) *
That's the crux, though. It's all about which party is the one that decides whether or not the Cubs keep paying him. There's no situation where it wouldn't be better for the Cubs if he simply didn't have the opt-out. Even if, two years from now, Darvish is worth his contract and they decide to trade him because they don't want to risk him falling off a cliff, they're still better off doing that than if he opted out. If he ends up having a catastrophic injury in year three, everyone will say "Oh well that worked out for them," but the RISK of that injury at the time of the decision was baked into his value. He's either worth more or less than 4/81 with projections included.

If he can demand more, then the Cubs are better off keeping him at that price. If he can't demand more, the Cubs still have to keep him at that price.


My point is, at 33, he'd have to pitch pretty damn good the next 2 seasons to land better than 4/81.
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Joshua Strong
post Feb 15, 2018 -> 03:49 PM
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As one of the people who was really beating the drum for Jason Heyward getting paid like a top player, even I can't deny that he has been an epic failure for the Cubs. I think that it is right up there with Pujols for being the worst contract in the sport.
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wrathofhahn
post Feb 15, 2018 -> 05:11 PM
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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 04:49 PM) *
As one of the people who was really beating the drum for Jason Heyward getting paid like a top player, even I can't deny that he has been an epic failure for the Cubs. I think that it is right up there with Pujols for being the worst contract in the sport.


Yep, Heyward is going to cost them one of their good young players when it comes to having to pay them.
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