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Sox expecting to open '18 with both Avi and Abreu

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 01:23 PM)
For many it crossed a line into personal.

Correct, and it never made any sense given his work ethic and effort on the field. It was a meathead fan fad.

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QUOTE (Tony @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 01:21 PM)
Which was well deserved, given his production.

 

What I take issue with is people equating "Avi hate" to the Sox possibly moving him and not locking him up to a long extension after one season of positive production, after 1,500 AB's of putting up a 0.0 WAR in his career.

 

There are always going to be extremes on this board. In the same 24 hour period we had a poster saying he has a decent chance of being non-tendered in 2018, and a poster calling him Roberto Clemente. Removing the goofball stuff, fans don't "hate" Avi Garcia. Reasonable skepticism isn't hate.

 

In fairness it wasn't a goofball poster comparing Avi to Roberto Clemente...it was ZIPS projections. I merely pointed out that for the first 2500 at bats Roberto Clemente was bad and then had a break out season and was great for the next 13 seasons. It seems to me crazier to think this 26 year old coming off a 4.6 WAR is likely to be terrible because of what he did at 24 than to think he could be Clemente. He's under control for two more years...it seems prudent to wait and see if he maintains greatness than to trade him for someone that we could DREAM of putting up a 4.6 WAR at 25.

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QUOTE (michelangelosmonkey @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 11:35 AM)
I like the dream big scenario. The Zips projection lists Avi's closest comparison as Roberto Clemente. Through Roberto's first 2500 AB's he had a slash line of .285/.306/.373 and had 10 WAR over that five years. Then something clicked and he went .330/.370/.475 and averaged 6.5 over the next 13 years. Yes Roberto clicked at a younger age but Avi lost a full year to injury. Both RF's with cannon arms. I think there has been way too much negative comments about Avi when he was young and then when he had a monster year last year everyone said..."well yes but this" and "well yes but that". Not every great player comes up as Mike Trout. Why is it outlandish that Avi has found the greatness that everyone saw in him when he was 20? I sure like the idea of Jimenez, Robert, Avi outfield if Avi is Clemente.

 

Ummm...it wasn’t only the right arm. It was a mantle full of Golden Gloves (think Heyward x2) and reckless abandon on the basepaths. The comps should be Larry Walker and Vladimir Guerrero for arm. Sosa, before the steroids, had a lot of similarities, actually. I got ripped for comparing Puig, but he’s another one in terms of excitement level.

 

And Clemente wasn’t a big guy...he was a very slender guy who generated a lot of power from his forearms and wrists, but was known more for his triples and XB hits and also being able to hit balls in and way out of the strike zone, even when stepping into the bucket and taking a terribly awkward swing. That’s also not Avi.

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QUOTE (mac9001 @ Jan 29, 2018 -> 07:41 PM)
If there was a bookie taking bets I'd feel more comfortable putting my money on Avi being non-tendered next off-season then getting a big extension.

 

This

QUOTE (oldsox @ Jan 29, 2018 -> 09:21 PM)
Non-tendered? How bad do you think Avi will be in 2018?

 

I personally expect him to put up a season similar to his 2015 and 2016 seasons, which would be worth a non-tender in 2019. Most were shocked he was tendered in 2017. Most people forget that.

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 06:58 PM)
Avi got a ton of hate up until this past season. Even now he gets more doubt per square mile than any other player on the roster.

Let's face it, there are people on this board (I'd say 40 percent of the peeps, maybe a bit more) who will never "believe" in Avi. His age and his production scream "excitement" and "potential" but Sox fans just can't unequivocally support the guy. That's fine. He's got to prove it again. I'd say if he has the same year this year as last there still will be severe detractors. I guess they will want at least 15 more homers from Avi, a ton more RBIs.

The funny thing is that the advanced stats all love Avi and still the advanced statniks here can't buy that Avi is a star.

Again, that's fine. We Avi lovers can't win; and Avi can't win. If he sucks in April and May ... wow the naysayers will want to run him out of town. If he excels? Big deal. It's not sustainable.

 

Tough tough crowd and it makes no sense cause of Avi's age and his WAR.

 

p.s. Would the nontender crowd like for Hahn to just dump him for scraps ASAP? Dat's a good question.

p.s.s. The Royals getting rid of Moss?? Now that makes sense in all aspects. Avi being dumped? Makes no sense.

BELIEVE.IN.AVI. He will deliver, folks.

Edited by greg775

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The advanced stats say that 2017 was likely an aberration.

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QUOTE (Heads22 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 07:03 PM)
The advanced stats say that 2017 was likely an aberration.

 

They say the same thing about Lucas Giolito for example.

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QUOTE (Heads22 @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 01:03 AM)
The advanced stats say that 2017 was likely an aberration.

Because of BABIP? One stat. He's destined to drop.

Hopefully Avi reports to camp in as good shape as last year and doesn't get fat and happy. If he remains the "in shape" Avi ... look out.

Edited by greg775

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 07:00 PM)
Let's face it, there are people on this board (I'd say 40 percent of the peeps, maybe a bit more) who will never "believe" in Avi. His age and his production scream "excitement" and "potential" but Sox fans just can't unequivocally support the guy. That's fine. He's got to prove it again. I'd say if he has the same year this year as last there still will be severe detractors. I guess they will want at least 15 more homers from Avi, a ton more RBIs.

The funny thing is that the advanced stats all love Avi and still the advanced statniks here can't buy that Avi is a star.

Again, that's fine. We Avi lovers can't win; and Avi can't win. If he sucks in April and May ... wow the naysayers will want to run him out of town. If he excels? Big deal. It's not sustainable.

 

Tough tough crowd and it makes no sense cause of Avi's age and his WAR.

 

p.s. Would the nontender crowd like for Hahn to just dump him for scraps ASAP? Dat's a good question.

p.s.s. The Royals getting rid of Moss?? Now that makes sense in all aspects. Avi being dumped? Makes no sense.

BELIEVE.IN.AVI. He will deliver, folks.

The advanced stats scream “regression”. He most definitely got better last season, but he also got really lucky. You can continue to ignore all those indicators all you like (and you will), but I think the majority of people here simply want to see more power from him before truly believing that he’s an above average player. The good news is he young enough to see further improvement and maybe just maybe he finds a way to loft the ball consistently in 2018.

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 08:00 PM)
Let's face it, there are people on this board (I'd say 40 percent of the peeps, maybe a bit more) who will never "believe" in Avi. His age and his production scream "excitement" and "potential" but Sox fans just can't unequivocally support the guy. That's fine. He's got to prove it again. I'd say if he has the same year this year as last there still will be severe detractors. I guess they will want at least 15 more homers from Avi, a ton more RBIs.

The funny thing is that the advanced stats all love Avi and still the advanced statniks here can't buy that Avi is a star.

Again, that's fine. We Avi lovers can't win; and Avi can't win. If he sucks in April and May ... wow the naysayers will want to run him out of town. If he excels? Big deal. It's not sustainable.

 

Tough tough crowd and it makes no sense cause of Avi's age and his WAR.

 

p.s. Would the nontender crowd like for Hahn to just dump him for scraps ASAP? Dat's a good question.

p.s.s. The Royals getting rid of Moss?? Now that makes sense in all aspects. Avi being dumped? Makes no sense.

BELIEVE.IN.AVI. He will deliver, folks.

 

It isn't about belief it's about facts his BABIP was far and away the best in the league. If he makes some further improvements in his plate discipline and knocks a couple extra of HR's he can help stave of the regression but his BABIP will force his BA regress the only question is how much.

 

But in order for that to happen he's going to have to get more loft on the ball. Only 27% of his balls put in play last year were flyballs. He hits around 26 for his career. His HR/FB is actually a pretty respectable 16.1. I have no idea what league average was last year due to the balls being juiced but it's usually around 10 percent.

 

So basically what he did worked last year but unless he wants to max out at a .760 ish OPS he's going to have to adjust his approach. Steamer by the way projects him to have a .333 BABIP which is till too high.

 

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 07:05 PM)
They say the same thing about Lucas Giolito for example.

This is coming from a huge Giolito fan, but if he doesn't find some of his lost velocity soon, dude is probably going to get torched at the MLB level.

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QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 04:20 PM)
This

 

 

I personally expect him to put up a season similar to his 2015 and 2016 seasons, which would be worth a non-tender in 2019. Most were shocked he was tendered in 2017. Most people forget that.

 

Exactly.

 

My guess is he regresses offensively. I expect his number to be closer to 15/16 than 17, which when combined with his defense will make him a below average RFer. Given his expected salary in arbitration, I expect we'll have a serious debate if he's worth the money.

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QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 08:37 PM)
Mistake keeping Avi he should of been dealt.

 

For?

 

If the Brewers can't find a take for Domingo Santana with 4 years of control, we're going to be seriously underwhelmed with the return...

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 07:08 PM)
The advanced stats scream “regression”. He most definitely got better last season, but he also got really lucky. You can continue to ignore all those indicators all you like (and you will), but I think the majority of people here simply want to see more power from him before truly believing that he’s an above average player. The good news is he young enough to see further improvement and maybe just maybe he finds a way to loft the ball consistently in 2018.

 

Explain how the advanced stats scream regression without using the acronym "BABIP". That's the only one that is strongly favoring negative regression, and other advanced metrics point to the possibility of positive regression in both power and plate discipline. If he puts up a .290/.360/.540 line, is he any less valuable? Because I could see that based on his 2017 numbers factoring negative BABIP regression with positive regression in the power and plate discipline categories.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 07:55 PM)
Explain how the advanced stats scream regression without using the acronym "BABIP". That's the only one that is strongly favoring negative regression, and other advanced metrics point to the possibility of positive regression in both power and plate discipline. If he puts up a .290/.360/.540 line, is he any less valuable? Because I could see that based on his 2017 numbers factoring negative BABIP regression with positive regression in the power and plate discipline categories.

Personally while I believe in advanced stats to a degree there is an over reliance on them.Baseball Common Sense 101 tells me when you hit .330 you did a lot right and just didn't get lucky. While I will have to agree that his batting average is likely to regress because of a large number of infield hits it wasn't just luck . I think we forget baseball takes a large amount of skill to get hits and all this talk about his numbers declining to pre 2017 is just people hedging their bets playing the odds that previous bad seasons still outweigh the 1 good one. Why can't the Sox have a player who breaks out in a big way ? Happens all the time.

 

The only way to get a feel for a player is to watch a lot of games. I don't mean 1/2 the games I mean at least 75% and watch what the player is doing up there in the batters box. There's a lot to be said for actually watching/studying baseball.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 10:55 PM)
Explain how the advanced stats scream regression without using the acronym "BABIP". That's the only one that is strongly favoring negative regression, and other advanced metrics point to the possibility of positive regression in both power and plate discipline. If he puts up a .290/.360/.540 line, is he any less valuable? Because I could see that based on his 2017 numbers factoring negative BABIP regression with positive regression in the power and plate discipline categories.

 

Um okay he doesn't walk. If you look at the batted ball data you will see he really wasn't doing anything all that differently. He wasn't hitting lasers all over the field. His LD% was actually lower then the year before and his career numbers. He's not a contact hitter either the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone he swung at was basically unchanged from the year before. His zone contact percentage was negligibly better then last year.

 

 

He mainly just got lucky. You want to see how hard to do what Garcia is attempting to do take a look at Melky someone who plays no defense and puts up .130 to .140 ISO power. Then take a look at the batted ball data and contact rates.

 

 

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 02:55 AM)
Personally while I believe in advanced stats to a degree there is an over reliance on them.Baseball Common Sense 101 tells me when you hit .330 you did a lot right and just didn't get lucky. While I will have to agree that his batting average is likely to regress because of a large number of infield hits it wasn't just luck . I think we forget baseball takes a large amount of skill to get hits and all this talk about his numbers declining to pre 2017 is just people hedging their bets playing the odds that previous bad seasons still outweigh the 1 good one. Why can't the Sox have a player who breaks out in a big way ? Happens all the time.

 

The only way to get a feel for a player is to watch a lot of games. I don't mean 1/2 the games I mean at least 75% and watch what the player is doing up there in the batters box. There's a lot to be said for actually watching/studying baseball.

 

Sigh baseball is littered with BABIP one year wonders.

 

Remember the era of Pat Listach? Me neither. Jose Iglesias. Mike Aviles. The era of Danny Santana? The thing about Garcia is he has talent but he needed to make changes prior to last season and instead found success.

 

So what are the chances he makes the necessary changes of him being more patient at the plate and trying to get more loft on his swing with the success he had last year? I mean we'll see but one of the sort of curses of the BABIP monster is you see many promising young players never sort of recover they are trying to recapture the magic of their rookie year instead of writing it off as the fluke it was and making the necessary changes for longterm sustainable success.

 

 

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 30, 2018 -> 09:55 PM)
Explain how the advanced stats scream regression without using the acronym "BABIP". That's the only one that is strongly favoring negative regression, and other advanced metrics point to the possibility of positive regression in both power and plate discipline. If he puts up a .290/.360/.540 line, is he any less valuable? Because I could see that based on his 2017 numbers factoring negative BABIP regression with positive regression in the power and plate discipline categories.

It’s more than just BABIP, although it’s obviously the big one. I’ve read multiple articles that suggest regression is coming for a multitude of reasons and I’m pretty sure one of them had a metric that suggested even his 2017 power numbers were a bit flukey. If I can find it, I’ll make sure to post it.

 

What metrics suggest positive regression for power and plate discipline?

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 01:55 AM)
Personally while I believe in advanced stats to a degree there is an over reliance on them.Baseball Common Sense 101 tells me when you hit .330 you did a lot right and just didn't get lucky. While I will have to agree that his batting average is likely to regress because of a large number of infield hits it wasn't just luck . I think we forget baseball takes a large amount of skill to get hits and all this talk about his numbers declining to pre 2017 is just people hedging their bets playing the odds that previous bad seasons still outweigh the 1 good one. Why can't the Sox have a player who breaks out in a big way ? Happens all the time.

 

The only way to get a feel for a player is to watch a lot of games. I don't mean 1/2 the games I mean at least 75% and watch what the player is doing up there in the batters box. There's a lot to be said for actually watching/studying baseball.

First, let me give you credit about Avi. He actually got better last year and became a better player. You believed in him and deserve credit for that. Having said that, no one can sustain a .392 BABIP. It’s not about an over reliance on advanced metrics, it’s based on actual historical evidence. The highest career BABIPs (by some truly amazing players no less) come in around .350. Do you actually believe Avi is going to continue to be better than the best ever by a good 40 points? It’s not going to happen. His batting average is most definitely going to regress some. Having said that, I think he can still maintain an incredibly high BABIP and remain a .290ish hitter. And that’s fantastic IMO.

 

The real question is can he add power or improve his plate discipline. That’s what will truly define a breakout. I honestly don’t see any reason to believe his plate discipline will improve by any significant margin at this point, but the power theoretically could. If it does he could be a damn good RF like he was in 2017, otherwise he’s probably league average at best. I personally don’t think adding loft is a simple task, but I’m more than willing to give him a shot this coming year because his fielding & base-running are no longer huge value drains and he’s got a non-zero chance of being a star.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 05:39 AM)
First, let me give you credit about Avi. He actually got better last year and became a better player. You believed in him and deserve credit for that. Having said that, no one can sustain a .392 BABIP. It’s not about an over reliance on advanced metrics, it’s based on actual historical evidence. The highest career BABIPs (by some truly amazing players no less) come in around .350. Do you actually believe Avi is going to continue to be better than the best ever by a good 40 points? It’s not going to happen. His batting average is most definitely going to regress some. Having said that, I think he can still maintain an incredibly high BABIP and remain a .290ish hitter. And that’s fantastic IMO.

 

The real question is can he add power or improve his plate discipline. That’s what will truly define a breakout. I honestly don’t see any reason to believe his plate discipline will improve by any significant margin at this point, but the power theoretically could. If it does he could be a damn good RF like he was in 2017, otherwise he’s probably league average at best. I personally don’t think adding loft is a simple task, but I’m more than willing to give him a shot this coming year because his fielding & base-running are no longer huge value drains and he’s got a non-zero chance of being a star.

You spend your whole 1st paragraph explaining to me how his BABIP will regress when I already clearly stated I think it will too.

 

While his walk rate was rather static his K rate was the best of his career. I believe it was 17.9 %. The one area he improved dramatically on was contact within the strike zone. . Now I am not using some O zone stat for that . I basically just used the hot zone graphics that indicate how well he hit in the strike zone and Avi basically hit well in the whole strike zone when in the past there were areas of the plate usually 4 out of the 9 divisions the plate is divided into that Avi didn't hit well. In 2017 it was basically only one part of the plate that he didn't hit well. He was making more and better contact within the strike zone.

 

Maybe because he was in better shape his swing loosened up , maybe it got a touch quicker. Maybe his knowledge of how pitchers were approaching him got better . Maybe it was all of the above. These are things you cannot measure . If you have good eyesight and are physically gifted with good reflexes and hand eye coordination the one thing that prevents many players from developing is the ability to think along with the pitcher. In what counts should you expect a fastball, a slider a curve a change etc depending on the pitchers repertoire? What can you learn by looking at the fielders ? Has the 3rd baseman crept closer to 3rd when its not the late innings thus indicating a pitch you might be able to pull ( for a RH hitter). It's a game of nuances and subtleties. The best hitters are smart hitters to go along with their physical gifts.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 07:25 AM)
It’s more than just BABIP, although it’s obviously the big one. I’ve read multiple articles that suggest regression is coming for a multitude of reasons and I’m pretty sure one of them had a metric that suggested even his 2017 power numbers were a bit flukey. If I can find it, I’ll make sure to post it.

 

What metrics suggest positive regression for power and plate discipline?

 

His BB% increased and K% declined throughout the year, his BB% last year was below his career average, O-swing% was below career average, Z-swing% was well above career average, Z-contact% was well above career average, contact% was the highest it's been since his partial seasons, swstr% was career low. All of those things point to improved plate discipline or the potential for it.

 

His pull rate was well above career average, hard contact rate was well above career average, soft contact rate was well below career average, FB% above career average, IFFB% below career average, he had one of the highest average exit velocities in MLB, and he had some sort of arm injury in July, after which he didn't hit a HR for a month and a half. All of those things point to improved power numbers or the potential for it.

Edited by Dam8610

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 08:44 AM)
His BB% increased and K% declined throughout the year, his BB% last year was below his career average, O-swing% was below career average, Z-swing% was well above career average, Z-contact% was well above career average, contact% was the highest it's been since his partial seasons, swstr% was career low. All of those things point to improved plate discipline or the potential for it.

 

His pull rate was well above career average, hard contact rate was well above career average, soft contact rate was well below career average, FB% above career average, IFFB% below career average, he had one of the highest average exit velocities in MLB, and he had some sort of arm injury in July, after which he didn't hit a HR for a month and a half. All of those things point to improved power numbers or the potential for it.

Which of those metrics are predictive based on a one year sample? There’s a reason projection systems are predicting a huge fall-off for him in 2018. And by no means am I suggesting these systems are the end all be all (cause they’re not), but I’m not sure any of what you posted changes my mind much other than his plate discipline might be a bit better than I originally anticipated. I’m simply not going to expect power improvement until his adds more loft and I am not sure anything you provided here suggests a massive change in loft is coming.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 08:44 AM)
His BB% increased and K% declined throughout the year, his BB% last year was below his career average, O-swing% was below career average, Z-swing% was well above career average, Z-contact% was well above career average, contact% was the highest it's been since his partial seasons, swstr% was career low. All of those things point to improved plate discipline or the potential for it.

 

His pull rate was well above career average, hard contact rate was well above career average, soft contact rate was well below career average, FB% above career average, IFFB% below career average, he had one of the highest average exit velocities in MLB, and he had some sort of arm injury in July, after which he didn't hit a HR for a month and a half. All of those things point to improved power numbers or the potential for it.

 

 

Avi could win the MVP, Triple Crown, cure cancer, dress in tights and fight crime by night and control the movement of the heavens and there would still be people that hate him and think he should do more.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 09:02 AM)
Which of those metrics are predictive based on a one year sample? There’s a reason projection systems are predicting a huge fall-off for him in 2018. And by no means am I suggesting these systems are the end all be all (cause they’re not), but I’m not sure any of what you posted changes my mind much other than his plate discipline might be a bit better than I originally anticipated. I’m simply not going to expect power improvement until his adds more loft and I am not sure anything you provided here suggests a massive change in loft is coming.

 

I wasn't arguing that his power numbers are certain to go up, but the numbers suggest sustainability at a bare minimum, which is 25 HR power if he doesn't get the arm injury in early July. I'm arguing potential, which I think is there based on the drastic change in his contact profile that led to a much higher level of success than he's had at any point in his career, and his average exit velocity and average launch angle are comparable to Robinson Cano and Ryan Zimmerman, so it's not like he can't make what he has work to the tune of 30 HR power.

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