But don’t we have mechanisms pushing back now?
Capacity: Plenty of room for more at hospitals. It’s hard to tell how true this is or not, but it seems that way.
Identify: Healthcare knows what they are dealing with now (vs March-April rush and total confusion).
Treatment: Healthcare is getting better every day at saving lives. Not rushing to intubate any more, proning, oxygen etc.
Supplies: Ventilator-gate never happened. PPE supply is increasing daily since the rush.
Public Awareness: People are all wearing masks, making masks, social distancing, practicing way better hygiene, working from home etc. Yes there are morons too, but generally, everyone is being super safe.
Sure there are plenty of examples of idiocy and failures in all of the above, but overall, this has been a pretty remarkable mobilization and adaptation of the American people over 6-8 weeks.
I think the “real” flattened curve is whatever it looks like with people out and about but wearing masks, businesses open but with 6-10’ spacing, social distancing, washing hands, avoiding handshakes/hugs and generally isolating as much as possible.
So yes I agree we will see plenty of spike, but 18 month quarantine doesn’t seem realistic to me either, or even beneficial. We went from “Totally Unprepared” to hopefully “As Prepared As We Can Be, Realistically”.
You’re in Texas somewhere too, right? We are basically Sweden-lite, like it or not. That’s the path Texas has chosen.
Do you think we’ll see hospitals getting overrun? It’s certainly possible, but it would come slower than NY right?