Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[Tnetennba]

24 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I speak only for myself but this is about as down as I could possibly be on a club projected to win the division.

I'm not down on them per se, but I have adjusted my overall expectations.  If they don't add anything significant before opening day there are still too many superior teams for me to rationally expect more than a central division winner and maybe a playoff series win.  Anything can happen, but I don't think this is an ALCS team as is.

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, KBX said:

The possibilities with all these guys with another year under their betls... Robert, Jimenez, Moncada, Vaughn, Sheets on the offensive side, then Cease, Kopech and Crochet plus the bullpen in general on the pitching side all makes it pretty exciting for me, that is to say more exciting than the offseason has been frustrating

The offseason has been awful, but I'll be excited as soon as the real games begin. Even if they do nothing else.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think all of his more major injuries have happened playing the field.  I don't think Eloy is really "worth" less to the Sox being a DH.  He's not a good OF and he's worth nothing when he's on the IL.  Seems pretty straight forward to me.  If he were a good OF of course his trade value would be higher than if he were a DH only, but Sox shouldn't be worried about his trade value.  They should be worried about getting him 600+ at bats because healthy Eloy can absolutely rake.  

Ok I'm spitballing of course so I'm open to other opinions and most proposed trades, in that vein, are unlikely. An Eloy for Marte and Varsho may improve the White Sox though. I know that's up for debate. Marte has had some injury problems the last 2 years but is a pretty good 2nd baseman and outfielder while Varsho is a pretty good OF /C . Marte is a switch hitter while Varsho is LH and displays decent upside with his bat. Improve OF and 2b defense and gets the Sox more left handed.

Eloy for Bellinger is 2 often injured guys . One can't play the OF and Bellinger's upside is 7 WAR, very good in the OF and 1st base. Eloy has 5 years left and Bellinger just 2.  Improve's the defense and provides more upside in WAR than Eloy . Dodgers would have to make up for the difference in years with a very good prospect or 2 of which they have plenty . Also gives the Dodgers some cost certainty and CBT relief.

[Tony]

6 minutes ago, RibbieRubarb said:

Really?? Ok guys. 

I actually agree with him. We should ALL have the expectation that the Sox were going to improve their team in the offseason, especially after two back-to-back first round playoff exits. 

Thus far, they have lost a 5 WAR pitcher and replaced him with Vince Velazquez, I guess? They have made multiple high-dollar bullpen investments and signed a soon to be 35 year old 2B who put up a - 0.5 WAR in the second half of the season. 

Yes, this team is very good on paper. I don't think many are arguing that. But this is a franchise that made a large time investment into being bad on purpose (instead of just being bad on their own) to get to this very point. And they did a very good job getting here! They built a team that can compete! But what looks to be the final 2-3 years of this core being together, they don't seem all that interested in actually pushing this team over the top, and improving. It seems like they have taken the attitude of "Eh, this team seems pretty good as is, let's see what happens, maybe we'll get lucky in the playoffs, who knows!" 

Doesn't exactly get the fan base fired up. 

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ok I'm spitballing of course so I'm open to other opinions and most proposed trades, in that vein, are unlikely. An Eloy for Marte and Varsho may improve the White Sox though. I know that's up for debate. Marte has had some injury problems the last 2 years but is a pretty good 2nd baseman and outfielder while Varsho is a pretty good OF /C . Marte is a switch hitter while Varsho is LH and displays decent upside with his bat. Improve OF and 2b defense and gets the Sox more left handed.

Eloy for Bellinger is 2 often injured guys . One can't play the OF and Bellinger's upside is 7 WAR, very good in the OF and 1st base. Eloy has 5 years left and Bellinger just 2.  Improve's the defense and provides more upside in WAR than Eloy . Dodgers would have to make up for the difference in years with a very good prospect or 2 of which they have plenty . Also gives the Dodgers some cost certainty and CBT relief.

Eloy for Ketel & Varsho would be interesting, though I don't think Arizona would do that deal with Eloy's current value.

Eloy for Bellinger would be awful.  Not sure Bellinger really has much surplus value.  Some, but not much. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by ChiSox59

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

I actually agree with him. We should ALL have the expectation that the Sox were going to improve their team in the offseason, especially after two back-to-back first round playoff exits. 

Thus far, they have lost a 5 WAR pitcher and replaced him with Vince Velazquez, I guess? They have made multiple high-dollar bullpen investments and signed a soon to be 35 year old 2B who put up a - 0.5 WAR in the second half of the season. 

Yes, this team is very good on paper. I don't think many are arguing that. But this is a franchise that made a large time investment into being bad on purpose (instead of just being bad on their own) to get to this very point. And they did a very good job getting here! They built a team that can compete! But what looks to be the final 2-3 years of this core being together, they don't seem all that interested in actually pushing this team over the top, and improving. It seems like they have taken the attitude of "Eh, this team seems pretty good as is, let's see what happens, maybe we'll get lucky in the playoffs, who knows!" 

Doesn't exactly get the fan base fired up. 

Well said.  Watching this FO basically sit on their hands all winter and once again spend only on the periphery has made some of us recalibrate.  They seem to be resting on their laurels instead of doing everything possible to push this team over the top.  Division titles and multiple playoff appearances are great, but I don't know if I can call them a championship contender, let alone competing for multiple championships.

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Eloy for Ketel & Varsho would be interesting, though I don't think Arizona would do that deal with Eloy's current value.

Eloy for Bellinger would be awful.  Not sure Bellinger really has much surplus value.  Some, but not much. 

Twins, Tigers and even Royals fans have reasons to be optimistic about this season.

It feels like this is the last season we are more looking ahead to the future instead of retrospectively ruing what mighta/coulda/shoulda been if things were executed properly…and likely with a different manager.  All we can do is wait and see how it all plays out.

I guess the other factor is Kimbrel lingering over this team…sort of feels like the team needs to make a decision relatively soon or be stuck in a kind of suspended limbo because the last thing we need is a “what do we do with Kimbrel now?” debate hanging over the first half of the season when it was so easily avoidable. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Eloy for Ketel & Varsho would be interesting, though I don't think Arizona would do that deal with Eloy's current value.

Eloy for Bellinger would be awful.  Not sure Bellinger really has much surplus value.  Some, but not much. 

Lets say Eloy and Bellinger both reach the peak of their games in 2022. $17M for 7 WAR would be a bargain but since you're trading Eloy and his $7M this year it's really only $10M. What's Eloy worth in WAR if he reaches his peak Value with his defense, 4 WAR ?

If Dodgers throw in a top prospect like Diego Cartaya , Miguel Vargas or  Bobby Miller plus a lower rated prospect, I'd be fine with trading Eloy's upside offense, 5 years, and terrible defense for Bellingers upside WAR, 2 yrs and very good defense plus a TOP 100 prospect and someone else in the Dodgers TOP 30. The winner of that trade depends on who stays healthier. So it could backfire if Eloy stays healthy (ha) and Bellinger doesn't.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

28 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

 

That is a very white sox deal on the face. Overpaying a guy who might just slide back to a 1 WAR player or even worse.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

11 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Well said.  Watching this FO basically sit on their hands all winter and once again spend only on the periphery has made some of us recalibrate.  They seem to be resting on their laurels instead of doing everything possible to push this team over the top.  Division titles and multiple playoff appearances are great, but I don't know if I can call them a championship contender, let alone competing for multiple championships.

I think it's actually more frustrating that they spent 47 million dollars and arguably got worse. Sitting on their hands would at least allow me to blame a tight budget and Jerry only; at this point it's as much on Hahn as it is on Jerry.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

That is a very white sox deal on the face. Overpaying a guy who might just slide back to a 1 WAR player or even worse.

The most Rockies thing I've ever seen. That extension is flat out hilarious.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, reiks12 said:

Im bored of the same old talk in this thread. Lets discuss an Eloy trade that would improve the MLB club. Who wants to take up the challenge?

OK I said I wasn't up for it but I couldn't help myself so I proposed 2 different trades.

[SoxFanForever]

31 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The most Rockies thing I've ever seen. That extension is flat out hilarious.

Am I a bad baseball fan if I said, "who?" when this was announced? 

[michelangelosmonkey]

26 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Well said.  Watching this FO basically sit on their hands all winter and once again spend only on the periphery has made some of us recalibrate.  They seem to be resting on their laurels instead of doing everything possible to push this team over the top.  Division titles and multiple playoff appearances are great, but I don't know if I can call them a championship contender, let alone competing for multiple championships.

Ohmigod Soxtalk has now officially lost their minds.  You can't get excited about THIS team??  Their outfield (Robert, Eloy, Vaughn) could hit .300 with 120 homer runs.  Grandal and Moncado could hit 50 home runs and get on base 40% of the time.   Tim Anderson could win the batting title again.  Abreu will probably hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 rbi's as always.  Four of their starting pitchers could win the Cy Young award and the fifth starter HAS won the Cy Young award and finished 5th as recently as 2020.   Their bullpen was #2 in all of baseball last year and have replaced their two worst pitchers with two pitchers that threw 100 innings with a 2.5 ERA.  The amount of moaning about Conforto who the Mets don't want...is unbelievable.   The ridiculous take that our window is "only 2-3 years" is just crazy...the core of our guys won't even be in their PRIMES in 3 years.   What is the matter with all of you??   I can't WAIT for the season to start.  I can't wait to see this core of young players grow into a dynasty.   .    

[Harry Chappas]

Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

Ohmigod Soxtalk has now officially lost their minds.  You can't get excited about THIS team??  Their outfield (Robert, Eloy, Vaughn) could hit .300 with 120 homer runs.  Grandal and Moncado could hit 50 home runs and get on base 40% of the time.   Tim Anderson could win the batting title again.  Abreu will probably hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 rbi's as always.  Four of their starting pitchers could win the Cy Young award and the fifth starter HAS won the Cy Young award and finished 5th as recently as 2020.   Their bullpen was #2 in all of baseball last year and have replaced their two worst pitchers with two pitchers that threw 100 innings with a 2.5 ERA.  The amount of moaning about Conforto who the Mets don't want...is unbelievable.   The ridiculous take that our window is "only 2-3 years" is just crazy...the core of our guys won't even be in their PRIMES in 3 years.   What is the matter with all of you??   I can't WAIT for the season to start.  I can't wait to see this core of young players grow into a dynasty.   .    

This whole thing could have been said 12 months ago and it went well and the post season was a failure, same as 2020.

As they saw last year injuries happen that leave holes and they did nothing to address this.  

People understand that there is talent but have all seen that this talent is not enough and the organization ahs no depth. 

[NWINFan]

44 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Well said.  Watching this FO basically sit on their hands all winter and once again spend only on the periphery has made some of us recalibrate.  They seem to be resting on their laurels instead of doing everything possible to push this team over the top.  Division titles and multiple playoff appearances are great, but I don't know if I can call them a championship contender, let alone competing for multiple championships.

The only time the White Sox had a successful post season was in 2005. They have lost every other series since division play began in 1969 and have looked bad in doing it.  I was hoping for more than winning a bad division or going to the playoffs in a 60-game season,

I know some are not happy with all the money spent on the bullpen, but the complete game vanished a long time ago. Starters now think they're doing their job if they go six innings. That means the bullpen has to take over a third of the season. 

I am not pessimistic about 2022 but the club still has question marks. 

[Eminor3rd]

5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Ohmigod Soxtalk has now officially lost their minds.  You can't get excited about THIS team??  Their outfield (Robert, Eloy, Vaughn) could hit .300 with 120 homer runs.  Grandal and Moncado could hit 50 home runs and get on base 40% of the time.   Tim Anderson could win the batting title again.  Abreu will probably hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 rbi's as always.  Four of their starting pitchers could win the Cy Young award and the fifth starter HAS won the Cy Young award and finished 5th as recently as 2020.   Their bullpen was #2 in all of baseball last year and have replaced their two worst pitchers with two pitchers that threw 100 innings with a 2.5 ERA.  The amount of moaning about Conforto who the Mets don't want...is unbelievable.   The ridiculous take that our window is "only 2-3 years" is just crazy...the core of our guys won't even be in their PRIMES in 3 years.   What is the matter with all of you??   I can't WAIT for the season to start.  I can't wait to see this core of young players grow into a dynasty.   .    

“Being excited about the team” and “being happy about the offseason” are not the same thing.

It is possible to BOTH (1) feel that the team is in a good position to win, and (2) feel that the FO squandered opportunities to put it in a much better position to win. You just have to be able to hold a couple different thoughts in your head at the same time. 

[Quin]

10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Ohmigod Soxtalk has now officially lost their minds.  You can't get excited about THIS team??  Their outfield (Robert, Eloy, Vaughn) could hit .300 with 120 homer runs.  Grandal and Moncado could hit 50 home runs and get on base 40% of the time.   Tim Anderson could win the batting title again.  Abreu will probably hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 rbi's as always.  Four of their starting pitchers could win the Cy Young award and the fifth starter HAS won the Cy Young award and finished 5th as recently as 2020.   Their bullpen was #2 in all of baseball last year and have replaced their two worst pitchers with two pitchers that threw 100 innings with a 2.5 ERA.  The amount of moaning about Conforto who the Mets don't want...is unbelievable.   The ridiculous take that our window is "only 2-3 years" is just crazy...the core of our guys won't even be in their PRIMES in 3 years.   What is the matter with all of you??   I can't WAIT for the season to start.  I can't wait to see this core of young players grow into a dynasty.   .    

The problem is that they have this amazing team and the resources to bolster it. Nothing in sports is guaranteed, so shoring up any weakness is key - and they just aren't doing it. It's incredibly frustrating. It's like if you were a kid and your parents take you to Disney World. You really want to go on the new Star Wars rides, see the animals in Animal Kingdom, etc.

Instead, you're stuck on It's A Small World for fucking eternity.

2 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

“Being excited about the team” and “being happy about the offseason” are not the same thing.

It is possible to BOTH (1) feel that the team is in a good position to win, and (2) feel that the FO squandered opportunities to put it in a much better position to win. You just have to be able to hold a couple different thoughts in your head at the same time. 

On the flip side, there are definitely people who are acting like this team is going to crater because they didn't shore up their weak spots. 

[southsideirish71]

6 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Ohmigod Soxtalk has now officially lost their minds.  You can't get excited about THIS team??  Their outfield (Robert, Eloy, Vaughn) could hit .300 with 120 homer runs.  Grandal and Moncado could hit 50 home runs and get on base 40% of the time.   Tim Anderson could win the batting title again.  Abreu will probably hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 rbi's as always.  Four of their starting pitchers could win the Cy Young award and the fifth starter HAS won the Cy Young award and finished 5th as recently as 2020.   Their bullpen was #2 in all of baseball last year and have replaced their two worst pitchers with two pitchers that threw 100 innings with a 2.5 ERA.  The amount of moaning about Conforto who the Mets don't want...is unbelievable.   The ridiculous take that our window is "only 2-3 years" is just crazy...the core of our guys won't even be in their PRIMES in 3 years.   What is the matter with all of you??   I can't WAIT for the season to start.  I can't wait to see this core of young players grow into a dynasty.   .    

Well, the last time I checked the owner of this franchise doesn't give out massive contracts.    So check out the contracts of the players and how many are free agents after 2024 and 2025.  So yes. The time is now.  We don't have a phase 2 in the minors that are nipping on these guys' heels right now.   Dynasty teams have waves of players coming in.  Look at the teams who spend quite a bit on their drafting, international FA, and development.  They consistently reload.  We have built this as the cubs built there's.  We are top-heavy, and that top is at the major league level.  Eventually, that top will cost money.  Some of these guys are under cost-controlled contracts.  But once again.  We don't have a second wave ready to hit anytime soon.    

   

 

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, Harry Chappas said:

This whole thing could have been said 12 months ago and it went well and the post season was a failure, same as 2020.

As they saw last year injuries happen that leave holes and they did nothing to address this.  

People understand that there is talent but have all seen that this talent is not enough and the organization ahs no depth. 

What does this even mean?   You are going to draw deep conclusions based on 4 games last October?  The Dodgers and Astros have been the most talented teams in the majors the last 9 and 7 years...and they each have won ONE World Series.  Are they losers?  Should they have signed Conforto?   My god their fan bases can't be this whiny.   Last year at this time Cease was a big question mark and he grew into a legit potential Ace.  Robert was a question mark and then was hurt for half the season and then put up a .950 OPS in the second half.  Vaughn went from A ball to the majors, learned a new position and held his own.  Eloy put up 45 home runs in his first 170 games...and then was hurt.  Gio proved he's legit.  Kopech struck out 13 batters per 9 with an under 3 FIP.  The sky is the limit for this team.  Fuck Conforto.        

[southsideirish71]

Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

What does this even mean?   You are going to draw deep conclusions based on 4 games last October?  The Dodgers and Astros have been the most talented teams in the majors the last 9 and 7 years...and they each have won ONE World Series.  Are they losers?  Should they have signed Conforto?   My god their fan bases can't be this whiny.   Last year at this time Cease was a big question mark and he grew into a legit potential Ace.  Robert was a question mark and then was hurt for half the season and then put up a .950 OPS in the second half.  Vaughn went from A ball to the majors, learned a new position and held his own.  Eloy put up 45 home runs in his first 170 games...and then was hurt.  Gio proved he's legit.  Kopech struck out 13 batters per 9 with an under 3 FIP.  The sky is the limit for this team.  Fuck Conforto.        

[Tnetennba]

 

[Tony]

28 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Ohmigod Soxtalk has now officially lost their minds.  You can't get excited about THIS team??  Their outfield (Robert, Eloy, Vaughn) could hit .300 with 120 homer runs.  Grandal and Moncado could hit 50 home runs and get on base 40% of the time.   Tim Anderson could win the batting title again.  Abreu will probably hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 rbi's as always.  Four of their starting pitchers could win the Cy Young award and the fifth starter HAS won the Cy Young award and finished 5th as recently as 2020.   Their bullpen was #2 in all of baseball last year and have replaced their two worst pitchers with two pitchers that threw 100 innings with a 2.5 ERA.  The amount of moaning about Conforto who the Mets don't want...is unbelievable.   The ridiculous take that our window is "only 2-3 years" is just crazy...the core of our guys won't even be in their PRIMES in 3 years.   What is the matter with all of you??   I can't WAIT for the season to start.  I can't wait to see this core of young players grow into a dynasty.   .    

You have a very poor understanding of how baseball works. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

12 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

“Being excited about the team” and “being happy about the offseason” are not the same thing.

It is possible to BOTH (1) feel that the team is in a good position to win, and (2) feel that the FO squandered opportunities to put it in a much better position to win. You just have to be able to hold a couple different thoughts in your head at the same time. 

Yes I wish we were like the Padres and the Phillies that win the offseason every year and have LOTS of big bad contracts out there.   Why are you unhappy about the off season?   A) it's NOT DONE.   B) top 6 bullpens won an average of 95 games last year...and we replaced our two worst arms with two very good pitchers.  C) NOT SPENDING MONEY is a strategy.   Part of keeping the core is not signing Edwin Jackson for 4 years and $52 million. Part of keeping the core intact is not trading for Dexter Fowlers big contract.  Part of longevity is not trading Eloy and Cease for Quintana.  We just saw the Cubs burn down their core because of lots of mis-steps.  Pushing all in for the short run can be bad for the long run.   This year attendance should boom which will fill the coffers for a big trade deadline deal...or resign long term parts.  Conforto over Vaughn/Engel does NOT put us in a "much better position to win".  I suspect if you evaluate the two options at the end of the year the fWar for Vaugnm/Engel will be higher than Conforto.     

[35thstreetswarm]

I am frustrated with this offseason so far.  I thought they should have spent money on a starter at a minimum.  I am worried that the FO is showing signs that they won't proceed with the urgency we all expected during our contention window.

That said, I am incredibly excited about our young core.  I also think a couple of things don't get enough focus here:  (1) other teams have flaws too.  The question isn't whether we have holes, it's whether ours are bigger than our competitors'.  In other words, what AL roster would you swap for ours?  I *might* have said Houston, but they just lost arguably their best player and cheater.  With that change, I'd say "none."  (2) The entire story of the contention window does not have to be written in March 2022.  Even assuming we do nothing else this offseason, we could still make a huge move at the deadline, and there's some logic to being extra patient with this roster, avoiding albatross contracts, and assessing young players' development for a few extra months when you're blessed with a weak division.  These factors mitigate my overall worry and frustration that we seem to be hanging back more than I'd like.

Edited March 21, 2022 by 35thstreetswarm