Jack Parkman Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Sarava said: If you trade Eloy now, or anytime by next winter, you're likely getting pennies on the dollar back for him. And maybe some people would be ok with that between his injuries and underperforming. I'm not ready to go there yet. Eloy is worth more to the Sox than any other team. It is what it is. You keep him and hope he has a good, healthy year and go from there, whether you want to keep him or sell. Edited May 2, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, Sarava said: If you move Lynn and Giolito, you may be punting on the entire rebuild, as opposed to just accepting its a bad year and trying again next year. They don't have the prospects knocking down the door to replace these guys. And we know Jerry doesn't want to spend at the top of the market for free agent starting pitchers. You know what good front offices would do? They'd trade those guys and then replace them in FA. It would basically be getting prospects for free, with a small downgrade in SP quality. Trade these guys and go sign Syndergaard/Musgrove and Manaea. Edited May 2, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: You know what good front offices would do? They'd trade those guys and then replace them in FA. It would basically be getting prospects for free, with a small downgrade in SP quality. Trade these guys and go sign Syndergaard/Musgrove and Manaea. And a HUGE upgrade in salary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: And a HUGE upgrade in salary. Not necessarily. Giolito is in arb 3 next year and will be getting 20M+ Lynn has an 18.5M salary. It might cost 10M more between the two guys, if that. They get a lot of flexibility next year with Abreu and Keuchel off the books, if they get smart and DFA Keuchel. Edited May 2, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Not necessarily. Giolito is in arb 3 next year and will be getting 20M+ Lynn has an 18.5M salary. It might cost 10M more between the two guys, if that. They get a lot of flexibility next year with Abreu and Keuchel off the books, if they get smart and DFA Keuchel. Lol, Lucas isn't going from $7.45M to $20M+ in arb. Try again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Not necessarily. Giolito is in arb 3 next year and will be getting 20M+ Lynn has an 18.5M salary. It might cost 10M more between the two guys, if that. They get a lot of flexibility next year with Abreu and Keuchel off the books, if they get smart and DFA Keuchel. Giolito will not be getting $20 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Lol, Lucas isn't going from $7.45M to $20M+ in arb. Try again. Isn't there usually a huge jump in arb 3, where they go close to market value? Even so, they have 30M+ coming off the books in Keuchel and Abreu. Edited May 2, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Isn't there usually a huge jump in arb 3, where they go close to market value? Even so, they have 30M+ coming off the books in Keuchel and Abreu. Find me one SP that has jumped 300% in one year of arb. Edited May 2, 2022 by ChiSox59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Not necessarily. Giolito is in arb 3 next year and will be getting 20M+ Lynn has an 18.5M salary. It might cost 10M more between the two guys, if that. They get a lot of flexibility next year with Abreu and Keuchel off the books, if they get smart and DFA Keuchel. That is not how arbitration works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chick Mercedes Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 13 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: He was topping out at 97 mph in 2019 and 2020 but now he's barely scraping 95. Luckily the carry on his fastball is elite, so hitters are still late on it. It could be a simple arm slot issue but they're not going to fix what isn't broken. The guy from 19/20 had A+ ace written all over him, the guy now is a solid #2. He always gives up HRs because he lives at the top of the strike zone with the heater, so if said pitch continues to be more hittable, it also makes his change more hittable, and then what happens? I think Giolito is fine for the rest of the Sox team control but I wouldn't bet on him into his 30s as of right now. I like the guy, he's paid his dues, bet on himself and I hope he gets paid. I understand why the Sox don't want to do it though. My recollection is different. His velocity was down even before he started the compact delivery. Was getting hit, and went more compact to be more deceptive. Not sure his velocity didn’t actually slightly improve after the change Edited May 2, 2022 by Chick Mercedes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Chick Mercedes said: y recollection is different. His velocity was down even before he starter the compact delivery. Was getting hit, and went more compact to be more deceptive. Not sure his velocity didn’t actually slightly improve after the change It did improve. In 2017 Gio's velocity was way down, he was throwing about where he was right now. In 2018, he was back up to the mid 90s but didn't have any control. In 2019 it had an increase and that mostly held in 2020-21. Gio's average FB was 94.2 in 2019, 94.0 in 2020 and 93.8 in 2021. This year there has been a huge drop, averaging 92.9 so far. Edited May 2, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: It did improve. In 2017 Gio's velocity was way down, he was throwing about where he was right now. In 2018, he was back up to the mid 90s but didn't have any control. In 2019 it had an increase and that mostly held in 2020-21. Gio's average FB was 94.2 in 2019, 94.0 in 2020 and 93.8 in 2021. This year there has been a huge drop, averaging 92.9 so far. However, every single year his April velocity has been lower than his May-July velocity. April 2019: 93.3 April 2021: 93.4 April 2022: 92.9 He's a half mph lower than previous Aprils, but comparing April to his full season numbers is not appropriate given his pattern. In 2021, Gio had a big first outing where his fastball averaged 95, then the next 3 games was 92.7, 92.9, 93. So far this year, his numbers are 93, 92.6, 93.1 - completely comparable to starts 2, 3, and 4 in 2021. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 47 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: However, every single year his April velocity has been lower than his May-July velocity. April 2019: 93.3 April 2021: 93.4 April 2022: 92.9 He's a half mph lower than previous Aprils, but comparing April to his full season numbers is not appropriate given his pattern. In 2021, Gio had a big first outing where his fastball averaged 95, then the next 3 games was 92.7, 92.9, 93. So far this year, his numbers are 93, 92.6, 93.1 - completely comparable to starts 2, 3, and 4 in 2021. Where are you getting this data? If I could have gotten the month by month that would have been great. Link please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: Where are you getting this data? If I could have gotten the month by month that would have been great. Link please? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lucas-giolito-608337?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb Scroll down to the chart and you can check things by month or by game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: You know what good front offices would do? They'd trade those guys and then replace them in FA. It would basically be getting prospects for free, with a small downgrade in SP quality. Trade these guys and go sign Syndergaard/Musgrove and Manaea. They already have Kopech on the roster, they're not going to pay another $21+ million to add all the variability that comes along with Thor. Right now, they need to be just as concerned with getting to the playoffs as building a WS winning team. At best, they can afford one big add, but it's most certainly not going to be two...especially if revenues are down from somehow missing the playoffs. (Talent is much more likely to come via trades, which is a scary proposition with this current front office.) Edited May 3, 2022 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 19 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: He was topping out at 97 mph in 2019 and 2020 but now he's barely scraping 95. Luckily the carry on his fastball is elite, so hitters are still late on it. It could be a simple arm slot issue but they're not going to fix what isn't broken. The guy from 19/20 had A+ ace written all over him, the guy now is a solid #2. He always gives up HRs because he lives at the top of the strike zone with the heater, so if said pitch continues to be more hittable, it also makes his change more hittable, and then what happens? I think Giolito is fine for the rest of the Sox team control but I wouldn't bet on him into his 30s as of right now. I like the guy, he's paid his dues, bet on himself and I hope he gets paid. I understand why the Sox don't want to do it though. Your obsession with velocity over production, especially early season velocity, is absolutely hilarious. Giolito has been worth more than 5 WAR per 200 IP since 2019 and you call him a solid #2 lol I personally would bet on guys who don't rely on elite velocity to be damn productive, I'd also bet on a guy who has ADDED a + pitch to his arsenal each of the past two years. That's called growth. I'm certainly glad you're not the gm assessing talent and future production. Edited May 3, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Balta1701 said: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lucas-giolito-608337?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb Scroll down to the chart and you can check things by month or by game. Jack does this every year and is told this every year but still obsessed over a radar gun reading every start. He'll tell you he's a huge giolito fan though and one of his biggest supporters... just like yoan. Then he'll make irrationally negative and over the top critiques of both. Edited May 3, 2022 by Look at Ray Ray Run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Your obsession with velocity over production, especially early season velocity, is absolutely hilarious. Giolito has been worth more than 5 WAR per 200 IP since 2019 and you call him a solid #2 lol I personally would bet on guys who don't rely on elite velocity to be damn productive, I'd also bet on a guy who has ADDED a + pitch to his arsenal each of the past two years. That's called growth. I'm certainly glad you're not the gm assessing talent and future production. I'm not concerned about him based on his velocity alone, I'm concerned about how hard his delivery may be on his shoulder. Giolito is still elite in whiff rate so that's fine. Usually velocity decline is a precursor to injury. A lot of my nitpicking of Giolito and Moncada isn't because I don't like them, It's because I want them to do well and be the best they can be. All criticism isn't bad criticism. Edited May 3, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm not concerned about him based on his velocity alone, I'm concerned about how hard his delivery may be on his shoulder. Giolito is still elite in whiff rate so that's fine. Usually velocity decline is a precursor to injury. But if you were using the data that is available, you shouldn't have come to that conclusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Tony said: But if you were using the data that is available, you shouldn't have come to that conclusion. I didn't explore the baseball savant site well enough. I didn't know that they had month by month data. If I would have known, I would have used it. I had no idea that this data was available to the public. Edited May 3, 2022 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scs787 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Is this real life? I haven't been able to watch the Sox as closely as I would like, so I've stayed out of discussions....But this is still absolutely a team that should be a title contender when everything finally gets put together. Cease, Giolito, and Kopech have all been great so far, and when Lynn comes back, assuming he pitches like he's capable of, that is a world series rotation. The offense is gonna get it going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, scs787 said: Is this real life? I haven't been able to watch the Sox as closely as I would like, so I've stayed out of discussions....But this is still absolutely a team that should be a title contender when everything finally gets put together. Cease, Giolito, and Kopech have all been great so far, and when Lynn comes back, assuming he pitches like he's capable of, that is a world series rotation. The offense is gonna get it going. Yep. And this pen should be their best pen. I just miss our boy in the rotation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
35thstreetswarm Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Freeze this thread in amber. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said: Freeze this thread in amber. How many out there are willing to go on record that they believe so strongly in the White Sox still winning the division that they would bet let's say $50,000 on it? Seems about even odds with the Twins right now, would you agree? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 10 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm not concerned about him based on his velocity alone, I'm concerned about how hard his delivery may be on his shoulder. Giolito is still elite in whiff rate so that's fine. Usually velocity decline is a precursor to injury. A lot of my nitpicking of Giolito and Moncada isn't because I don't like them, It's because I want them to do well and be the best they can be. All criticism isn't bad criticism. Yet he's never had shoulder problems. Jack, please give it a rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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