White Sox with roughly a 10% chance to win division/make playoffs

[caulfield12]

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Considerable gap with the Guardians still exists....despite only two games separating the teams in the standings. 

CLE really seems to be picking up some solid fan support at home, over 31k last night is quite unusual. 

Were arguably rewarded with the game of the season so far. 

Edited June 10, 2023 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

White Sox guaranteed division champs.

[The Grinder]

I look for the tigers to drop out leaving the indians, twins and us battling for the much sought after and prestigious  division crown

[The Kids Can Play]

Right now at BetRivers, they have the following odds to win the AL Central:

Twins -230

Guardians +250

White Sox +850

Tigers +2500

Royals +25000

[WookiesOnRitalin]

Sox pitching has really been the main reason the season has slumped so early combined with the early injuries. 

The Sox are only 13 and 14 runs scored behind Houston and Toronto respectively despite the injury bug. The Sox additionally have 4 starters in the top 14 in strikeouts (currently 4th in the AL). The problem is walks. Control issues seem to be the main thing holding back this staff and thus this team. Free baserunners is killing our chances of winning and if the the staff can figure it out, then we could see a fast improvement over the next several months. 

It is also clear that the lineup is missing a power bat. You would always hope that Eloy, Robert, and Vaughan were providing more power, but they just are not. If Hahn would be smart, he would figure out how to get another power bat in the lineup. Not sure who is available. The team is also dead last in walks. Any improvement in working counts and being patient would also lead to improvement as imagine. I think the hitting could just maybe use a change of philosophy. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, WookiesOnRitalin said:

Sox pitching has really been the main reason the season has slumped so early combined with the early injuries. 

The Sox are only 13 and 14 runs scored behind Houston and Toronto respectively despite the injury bug. The Sox additionally have 4 starters in the top 14 in strikeouts (currently 4th in the AL). The problem is walks. Control issues seem to be the main thing holding back this staff and thus this team. Free baserunners is killing our chances of winning and if the the staff can figure it out, then we could see a fast improvement over the next several months. 

It is also clear that the lineup is missing a power bat. You would always hope that Eloy, Robert, and Vaughan were providing more power, but they just are not. If Hahn would be smart, he would figure out how to get another power bat in the lineup. Not sure who is available. The team is also dead last in walks. Any improvement in working counts and being patient would also lead to improvement as imagine. I think the hitting could just maybe use a change of philosophy. 

You have to be able to control the running game and challenge other teams on the basepaths in this current version of the game. 

We're definitely not throwing out the big league average of 20%. 

The DBacks one prime example of a team that takes advantage of the new rules with Carroll and Gabriel Moreno from the Varsho deal. 

Sox just have Robert as a true defensive difference maker. 

 

[joejoesox]

no lol

[Soxfest]

People at game not going to continue coming to watch this crap 

[caulfield12]

0% revised. 

[flavum]

Sox have to go 4-3 vs Twins the rest of the way to clinch a tie.

The other 89, Sox would have to go 51-38 for 84 wins.

Under 10% still makes sense. Not expecting much in LA and Seattle.

[caulfield12]

You can't win with your entire offense underperforming expectations other than Burger Robert and maybe Grandal... 

And you're still playing with fire not backing up your rotation with any quality depth. 

[soxrwhite]

10% hope is better than hopeless

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, soxrwhite said:

10% hope is better than hopeless

Given this was supposed to be in the middle of a window of contention and not mired in mediocrity, having a 10% chance is a complete embarrassment. 

[soxrwhite]

8 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Given this was supposed to be in the middle of a window of contention and not mired in mediocrity, having a 10% chance is a complete embarrassment. 

I'm not embarrassed to keep hope alive. 4.5 back on 6/10 is not time to quit. Quitting is easy and quitters never win. GO SOX!

[Lip Man 1]

33 minutes ago, soxrwhite said:

I'm not embarrassed to keep hope alive. 4.5 back on 6/10 is not time to quit. Quitting is easy and quitters never win. GO SOX!

This team has little future and needs to be torn down at the trade deadline regardless of how far back they are in the "Comedy Central" division. The issue of course is the same incompetent, dysfunctional, inept front office will be in charge of the most recent tear down/rebuild.

But keeping the status quo with this "baseball-stupid" club also isn't a winning solution.  

[kitekrazy]

2 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

This team has little future and needs to be torn down at the trade deadline regardless of how far back they are in the "Comedy Central" division. The issue of course is the same incompetent, dysfunctional, inept front office will be in charge of the most recent tear down/rebuild.

But keeping the status quo with this "baseball-stupid" club also isn't a winning solution.  

I'd agree but they are not good at building either.

[South Side Hit Men]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

You can't win with your entire offense underperforming expectations other than Burger Robert and maybe Grandal... 

And you're still playing with fire not backing up your rotation with any quality depth. 

Yep. Heck of a job Hahny.

Actual vs. Expected (40% (65/162 through Friday) of "3 Year Projections 2023 ZIPS Projection"):

(fWAR first; ZIPS Projections listed second). Players with a 0.0 or negative projected ZIPS and players DFA'd are excluded.

No Salary indicates $720K-$760K 2023 salary.

1. 0.9 Luis Robert (2.3; 1.4) $9.5M
2. 0.8 Jake Burger (1.1; 0.3)
3. 0.4 Joe Kelly (0.5; 0.1) $9.0M
4. 0.2 Aaron Bummer (0.4; 0.2) $3.8M
5. 0.1 Mike Clevinger (0.5; 0.4) $12.0M
6. 0.0 Kendall Graveman (0.2; 0.2) $8.0M
7. -0.1 Lucas Giolito (1.0; 1.1) $10.4M
8. -0.2 Jessie Scholtens (0.1; 0.3)
9. -0.2 Tanner Banks (0.0; 0.2)
10. -0.3 Gavin Sheets (0.0; 0.3)
11. -0.3 Garrett Crochet (-0.2; 0.1)
12. -0.4 Dylan Cease (1.0; 1.4) $5.7M
13. -0.4 Michael Kopech (0.1; 0.5) $2.0M
14. -0.4 Seby Zavala (0.0; 0.4)
15. -0.5 Eloy Jimenez (0.2; 0.7) $10.3M
16. -0.5 Romy Gonzalez (-0.1; 0.4)
17. -0.5 Adam Haseley (-0.1; 0.4)
18. -0.5 Liam Hendriks (-0.1; 0.4) $14.3M
19. -0.6 Lance Lynn (0.2; 0.8) $19.5M
20. -0.7 Elvis Andrus (-0.1; 0.6) $3.0M
21. -0.7 Reynaldo Lopez (-0.1; 0.6) $3.6M
22. -0.8 Yoan Moncada (0.4; 1.2) $17.8M
23. -0.8 Andrew Benintendi (0.4; 1.2) $8.6M
24. -0.8 Tim Anderson (0.2; 1.0) $13.5M
25. -0.9 Yasmani Grandal (0.5; 1.4) $18.3M
26. -0.9 Carlos Perez (-0.1; 0.8)
27. -1.0 Andrew Vaughn (0.1; 1.1)
28. -1.0 Lenyn Sosa (-0.4; 0.6)
29. -1.0 Oscar Colas (-0.5; 0.5)

[Chick Mercedes]

So, you’re saying there’s a chance 

[Chimpton]

17 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Considerable gap with the Guardians still exists....despite only two games separating the teams in the standings. 

CLE really seems to be picking up some solid fan support at home, over 31k last night is quite unusual. 

Were arguably rewarded with the game of the season so far. 

Mind you that is about 10% more than they had at the end of April. 

[Texsox]

Heading to a state where sports betting is legal. 

 

 

 

 

Won't be placing the bet.

[Texsox]

5 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Yep. Heck of a job Hahny.

Actual vs. Expected (40% (65/162 through Friday) of "3 Year Projections 2023 ZIPS Projection"):

(fWAR first; ZIPS Projections listed second). Players with a 0.0 or negative projected ZIPS and players DFA'd are excluded.

No Salary indicates $720K-$760K 2023 salary.

1. 0.9 Luis Robert (2.3; 1.4) $9.5M
2. 0.8 Jake Burger (1.1; 0.3)
3. 0.4 Joe Kelly (0.5; 0.1) $9.0M
4. 0.2 Aaron Bummer (0.4; 0.2) $3.8M
5. 0.1 Mike Clevinger (0.5; 0.4) $12.0M
6. 0.0 Kendall Graveman (0.2; 0.2) $8.0M
7. -0.1 Lucas Giolito (1.0; 1.1) $10.4M
8. -0.2 Jessie Scholtens (0.1; 0.3)
9. -0.2 Tanner Banks (0.0; 0.2)
10. -0.3 Gavin Sheets (0.0; 0.3)
11. -0.3 Garrett Crochet (-0.2; 0.1)
12. -0.4 Dylan Cease (1.0; 1.4) $5.7M
13. -0.4 Michael Kopech (0.1; 0.5) $2.0M
14. -0.4 Seby Zavala (0.0; 0.4)
15. -0.5 Eloy Jimenez (0.2; 0.7) $10.3M
16. -0.5 Romy Gonzalez (-0.1; 0.4)
17. -0.5 Adam Haseley (-0.1; 0.4)
18. -0.5 Liam Hendriks (-0.1; 0.4) $14.3M
19. -0.6 Lance Lynn (0.2; 0.8) $19.5M
20. -0.7 Elvis Andrus (-0.1; 0.6) $3.0M
21. -0.7 Reynaldo Lopez (-0.1; 0.6) $3.6M
22. -0.8 Yoan Moncada (0.4; 1.2) $17.8M
23. -0.8 Andrew Benintendi (0.4; 1.2) $8.6M
24. -0.8 Tim Anderson (0.2; 1.0) $13.5M
25. -0.9 Yasmani Grandal (0.5; 1.4) $18.3M
26. -0.9 Carlos Perez (-0.1; 0.8)
27. -1.0 Andrew Vaughn (0.1; 1.1)
28. -1.0 Lenyn Sosa (-0.4; 0.6)
29. -1.0 Oscar Colas (-0.5; 0.5)

Gotta bring up the young guys. 

[scs787]

I've got my bet down. Even sprinkled some down on the pennant cuz why not? It's happened twice in the last few years with the Phillies and Nats looking God awful then making it to the world series.

 

 

[caulfield12]

12 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Yep. Heck of a job Hahny.

Actual vs. Expected (40% (65/162 through Friday) of "3 Year Projections 2023 ZIPS Projection"):

(fWAR first; ZIPS Projections listed second). Players with a 0.0 or negative projected ZIPS and players DFA'd are excluded.

No Salary indicates $720K-$760K 2023 salary.

1. 0.9 Luis Robert (2.3; 1.4) $9.5M
2. 0.8 Jake Burger (1.1; 0.3)
3. 0.4 Joe Kelly (0.5; 0.1) $9.0M
4. 0.2 Aaron Bummer (0.4; 0.2) $3.8M
5. 0.1 Mike Clevinger (0.5; 0.4) $12.0M
6. 0.0 Kendall Graveman (0.2; 0.2) $8.0M
7. -0.1 Lucas Giolito (1.0; 1.1) $10.4M
8. -0.2 Jessie Scholtens (0.1; 0.3)
9. -0.2 Tanner Banks (0.0; 0.2)
10. -0.3 Gavin Sheets (0.0; 0.3)
11. -0.3 Garrett Crochet (-0.2; 0.1)
12. -0.4 Dylan Cease (1.0; 1.4) $5.7M
13. -0.4 Michael Kopech (0.1; 0.5) $2.0M
14. -0.4 Seby Zavala (0.0; 0.4)
15. -0.5 Eloy Jimenez (0.2; 0.7) $10.3M
16. -0.5 Romy Gonzalez (-0.1; 0.4)
17. -0.5 Adam Haseley (-0.1; 0.4)
18. -0.5 Liam Hendriks (-0.1; 0.4) $14.3M
19. -0.6 Lance Lynn (0.2; 0.8) $19.5M
20. -0.7 Elvis Andrus (-0.1; 0.6) $3.0M
21. -0.7 Reynaldo Lopez (-0.1; 0.6) $3.6M
22. -0.8 Yoan Moncada (0.4; 1.2) $17.8M
23. -0.8 Andrew Benintendi (0.4; 1.2) $8.6M
24. -0.8 Tim Anderson (0.2; 1.0) $13.5M
25. -0.9 Yasmani Grandal (0.5; 1.4) $18.3M
26. -0.9 Carlos Perez (-0.1; 0.8)
27. -1.0 Andrew Vaughn (0.1; 1.1)
28. -1.0 Lenyn Sosa (-0.4; 0.6)
29. -1.0 Oscar Colas (-0.5; 0.5)

Carlos Perez being projected at 0.8, that's kind of a head scratcher. 

Also goes to show how little value we're getting out of the pen per dollar invested. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Carlos Perez being projected at 0.8, that's  of a head scratcher. 

Also goes to show how little value we're getting out of the pen per dollar invested. 

Carlos’ projections are for 111 Games played, so ZIPS more relevant for established players, less or not relevant beyond theoretical contributions for AAA prospects or year long reserve players.

Smart teams don’t burn money on the bullpen. I believe the Sox are top 3 this year in bullpen spending, including DFA Diekman.

Edited June 11, 2023 by South Side Hit Men

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Carlos’ projections are for 111 Games played, so ZIPS more relevant for established players, less or not relevant beyond theoretical contributions for AAA prospects or year long reserve players.

Smart teams don’t burn money on the bullpen. I believe the Sox are top 3 this year in bullpen spending, including DFA Diekman.

The last I saw they had spent the most money in MLB on bullpen pitchers.