Sox trade Matthew Thompson to Cubs for old friend Bailey Horn

[T R U]

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I can't believe people are upset about losing Matt Thompson. 

Im not upset about losing Matt Thompson, im upset that our organization that is rebuilding is trading away prospects for low upside situational players.

The upside of a prospect clicking and figuring it out is way more valuable to this team than a lefty reliever. I don't care what his name is, I care more about what he could be for this team in the future. Rebuilding teams don't need to be trading prospects for low level middle relief. Its absurd.

And if you are of the belief that they are just clearing out guys they don't like or don't think will make it, I have a problem with that as well since the guy now in charge was responsible for developing and bringing those guys up in his previous gig. Not very inspiring to me.

We have now traded away two SP prospects and in return have received two low ceiling players. I don't understand the logic.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, T R U said:

Im not upset about losing Matt Thompson, im upset that our organization that is rebuilding is trading away prospects for low upside situational players.

The upside of a prospect clicking and figuring it out is way more valuable to this team than a lefty reliever. I don't care what his name is, I care more about what he could be for this team in the future. Rebuilding teams don't need to be trading prospects for low level middle relief. Its absurd.

And if you are of the belief that they are just clearing out guys they don't like or don't think will make it, I have a problem with that as well since the guy now in charge was responsible for developing and bringing those guys up in his previous gig. Not very inspiring to me.

We have now traded away two SP prospects and in return have received two low ceiling players. I don't understand the logic.

Matt Thompson and Baily Horn have the exact same amount of control.  Sure, Horn is a couple years older, but the Sox traded a guy who extremely likely to never make it for a guy that has a decent chance to be a part of the Sox bullpen the next half decade+, and has three options. 

I also don't really understand why some here are grouping Dom Fletcher into the "low upside situational player" pool.  He looks like a 2 WAR floor player that can play above average OF defense all three OF positions.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Matt Thompson and Baily Horn have the exact same amount of control.  Sure, Horn is a couple years older, but the Sox traded a guy who extremely likely to never make it for a guy that has a decent chance to be a part of the Sox bullpen the next half decade+, and has three options. 

I also don't really understand why some here are grouping Dom Fletcher into the "low upside situational player" pool.  He looks like a 2 WAR floor player that can play above average OF defense all three OF positions.

This struck me as selling on a guy who may well have zero value very soon.  He is also a guy who has to be approaching Rule 5 territory as well.  I will be honest, I have no idea if this guy just needs a change of scenery or is what he is, but I do appreciate them being convicted in their self scouting and moving on from a guy who they don't think they can get anything out of.  Sure you hope to get more out of him, but at the same time, is a future reliever better than nothing?  Thompson has been awful in his minor league career to this point, and if anyone should know Thompson, it should be Getz.

He isn't even a top 30 guy in the MLB.com, Fangraphs, or Keith Law.  Law didn't rank him or even mention him.  He sneaks in at #27 in BA.

[Nardiwashere]

I'm willing to give Getz and the new front office the benefit of the doubt on these deals for a little bit.  I assume they are clearing out guys they don't love or targeting guys they like.  

Its not like they are trading Montgomery for a bullpen arm.  To me, it seems like its a swap of similar guys.  We obviously like Horn better and the Cubs needed space on their roster. 

[T R U]

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Matt Thompson and Baily Horn have the exact same amount of control.  Sure, Horn is a couple years older, but the Sox traded a guy who extremely likely to never make it for a guy that has a decent chance to be a part of the Sox bullpen the next half decade+, and has three options. 

I also don't really understand why some here are grouping Dom Fletcher into the "low upside situational player" pool.  He looks like a 2 WAR floor player that can play above average OF defense all three OF positions.

Don't agree at all with your assessment that Thompson is extremely likely to never make it while Horn has a decent chance to be on this team for 6+ years. And even so, I still would rather have the roll of the dice of the starting pitcher than a reliever for the position that this team is in right now. My gripe is why are we trading SP prospects for low upside, not that we traded Matt Thompson the specific player.

Fletcher has less than 100 AB's in the majors and can't hit lefties. To me, and to most of what I have seen reported/projected, he is a platoon player. We'll see about the 2 WAR floor, that seems pretty ambitious to me.

[T R U]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This struck me as selling on a guy who may well have zero value very soon.  He is also a guy who has to be approaching Rule 5 territory as well.  I will be honest, I have no idea if this guy just needs a change of scenery or is what he is, but I do appreciate them being convicted in their self scouting and moving on from a guy who they don't think they can get anything out of.  Sure you hope to get more out of him, but at the same time, is a future reliever better than nothing?  Thompson has been awful in his minor league career to this point, and if anyone should know Thompson, it should be Getz.

He isn't even a top 30 guy in the MLB.com, Fangraphs, or Keith Law.  Law didn't rank him or even mention him.  He sneaks in at #27 in BA.

Its hard to judge him honestly, he has been developed in a minor system that really hasn't proven they can develop anyone. If the Cubs can get his control in order, hes probably a back of the rotation guy.

[WestEddy]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This struck me as selling on a guy who may well have zero value very soon.  He is also a guy who has to be approaching Rule 5 territory as well. 

Matt Thompson's already in Rule 5 territory. The whole league had a shot to nab him for $50k, and took a pass. And depending how MLB handles the 2020 COVID season, he could be a minor league free agent after this season. 

[Chisoxfn]

4 minutes ago, T R U said:

Don't agree at all with your assessment that Thompson is extremely likely to never make it while Horn has a decent chance to be on this team for 6+ years. And even so, I still would rather have the roll of the dice of the starting pitcher than a reliever for the position that this team is in right now. My gripe is why are we trading SP prospects for low upside, not that we traded Matt Thompson the specific player.

Fletcher has less than 100 AB's in the majors and can't hit lefties. To me, and to most of what I have seen reported/projected, he is a platoon player. We'll see about the 2 WAR floor, that seems pretty ambitious to me.

I always think with someone like Thompson, if his stuff is there, they have been trying and trying to have him be a starter, but at some point, they can always just make him a 1-2 inning guy.  Does he profile as someone who when you shorten him becomes more elite or no?  

Horn doesn't have that - he's been a reliever forever, but I hope he has some swing and miss stuff where there is a reason he's a late bloomer.  

[southsider2k5]

23 minutes ago, T R U said:

Its hard to judge him honestly, he has been developed in a minor system that really hasn't proven they can develop anyone. If the Cubs can get his control in order, hes probably a back of the rotation guy.

That's the big "if" though. 

[WestEddy]

24 minutes ago, T R U said:

Its hard to judge him honestly, he has been developed in a minor system that really hasn't proven they can develop anyone. If the Cubs can get his control in order, hes probably a back of the rotation guy.

It's really a chicken and egg situation with drafting vs. development, with a side of KW/Hahn jerking the top picks around by rushing them to the major league bullpen ahead of schedule. The organization is developing pitchers, with guys like Chase Solesky and Christian Mena even passing Thompson to AAA. 

They have a group of guys right behind him in Kohl Simas, Jonathan Cannon, Tyler Schweitzer, Connor McCullough, Josimar Cousin, and Juan Carela. They still have Eder, Nastrini, Bush, and another 3-4 veterans to keep fresh at AAA, where frankly, they don't have the innings at AA or AAA to fart around with this guy anymore.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

It's really a chicken and egg situation with drafting vs. development, with a side of KW/Hahn jerking the top picks around by rushing them to the major league bullpen ahead of schedule. The organization is developing pitchers, with guys like Chase Solesky and Christian Mena even passing Thompson to AAA. 

They have a group of guys right behind him in Kohl Simas, Jonathan Cannon, Tyler Schweitzer, Connor McCullough, Josimar Cousin, and Juan Carela. They still have Eder, Nastrini, Bush, and another 3-4 veterans to keep fresh at AAA, where frankly, they don't have the innings at AA or AAA to fart around with this guy anymore.

I guarantee you that Christian Mena is not pushing Thompson anywhere right now.

They also don't have roster spots to fart around with Horn either.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Matt Thompson and Baily Horn have the exact same amount of control.  Sure, Horn is a couple years older, but the Sox traded a guy who extremely likely to never make it for a guy that has a decent chance to be a part of the Sox bullpen the next half decade+, and has three options. 

I also don't really understand why some here are grouping Dom Fletcher into the "low upside situational player" pool.  He looks like a 2 WAR floor player that can play above average OF defense all three OF positions.

Jesus christ, the guy is 26 and still has no guarantee of making an mlb roster. That does not scream "decent chance to be part of the sox bullpen for the next half decade" unless it is meant as an insult to how terrible this team is.

Is anyone a wee bit interested to see how Thompson, who was able to pitch 130 innings as a starter last year, could have seen his stuff play up in a reliever role (which Horn already had to transition to because he was a garbage starter in college?), where his fastball could be thrown harder and his two pitch arsenal was less of a vulnerability?

Could that have made the guy "extremely likely to never make it) (which again we are discussing for a guy who was 22/23 in AA last year, vs a guy was a bad reliever in AAA as a 25 year old and was unlikely to make the team so was traded?

I don't know. Makes you think!

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I guarantee you that Christian Mena is not pushing Thompson anywhere right now.

They also don't have roster spots to fart around with Horn either.

Bailey Horn isn't a starting pitcher. Through injuries, failures and a glut of DFAs at the end of ST, I'm sure they'll be okay. 

[WestEddy]

To me, the funniest part of all of this is the pivot from calling Mike Elias some uncomplimentary names for not wanting to jettison multiple top-20 in the game prospects for Dylan Cease - to prospect hugging on a guy who is getting passed on the depth chart by pitching titans, like Chase Solesky. 

Left-handed relievers are a commodity. 

[Balta1701]

25 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

To me, the funniest part of all of this is the pivot from calling Mike Elias some uncomplimentary names for not wanting to jettison multiple top-20 in the game prospects for Dylan Cease - to prospect hugging on a guy who is getting passed on the depth chart by pitching titans, like Chase Solesky. 

Left-handed relievers are a commodity. 

No, "GOOD" left handed relievers are a commodity. We have several left handed relievers right now, they're just not "Good" left handed relievers. Tanner Banks has better minor league numbers than Horn, but he's not a commodity.

[southsider2k5]

49 minutes ago, bmags said:

Jesus christ, the guy is 26 and still has no guarantee of making an mlb roster. That does not scream "decent chance to be part of the sox bullpen for the next half decade" unless it is meant as an insult to how terrible this team is.

Is anyone a wee bit interested to see how Thompson, who was able to pitch 130 innings as a starter last year, could have seen his stuff play up in a reliever role (which Horn already had to transition to because he was a garbage starter in college?), where his fastball could be thrown harder and his two pitch arsenal was less of a vulnerability?

Could that have made the guy "extremely likely to never make it) (which again we are discussing for a guy who was 22/23 in AA last year, vs a guy was a bad reliever in AAA as a 25 year old and was unlikely to make the team so was traded?

I don't know. Makes you think!

It would have been an interesting move, and one I am sure wasn't too far away.

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No, "GOOD" left handed relievers are a commodity. We have several left handed relievers right now, they're just not "Good" left handed relievers. Tanner Banks has better minor league numbers than Horn, but he's not a commodity.

Substitute "right hand starters" for "left hand relievers" and "Thompson" for "Horn", and it is pretty much the same sentiment.

[Chicago White Sox]

14 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Did you miss something in the copying or was his control so poor they didn’t score it?

Nope, your theory is correct.  I actually noticed that before posting and found it mildly humorous.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Substitute "right hand starters" for "left hand relievers" and "Thompson" for "Horn", and it is pretty much the same sentiment.

With the notable differences that one of them was already on the 40 man roster and one of them wasn't, and one of them could be transitioned to the bullpen to try things out and one of them...already was there.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

With the notable differences that one of them was already on the 40 man roster and one of them wasn't, and one of them could be transitioned to the bullpen to try things out and one of them...already was there.

And one of them has way higher bust potential? 

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Matt Thompson and Baily Horn have the exact same amount of control.  Sure, Horn is a couple years older, but the Sox traded a guy who extremely likely to never make it for a guy that has a decent chance to be a part of the Sox bullpen the next half decade+, and has three options. 

I also don't really understand why some here are grouping Dom Fletcher into the "low upside situational player" pool.  He looks like a 2 WAR floor player that can play above average OF defense all three OF positions.

A 2 WAR floor OF with six years of control would command much more than Mena and I say this as a fan of Christian.  People are over-inflating the certainty of Fletcher’s bat and likely the quality of his CF defense.  From what I have read, he can probably be adequate in CF but would not be above average.  His defense is based on reads & jumps and that will only take you so far in CF.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

A 2 WAR floor OF with six years of control would command much more than Mena and I say this as a fan of Christian.  People are over-inflating the certainty of Fletcher’s bat and likely the quality of his CF defense.  From what I have read, he can probably be adequate in CF but would not be above average.  His defense is based on reads & jumps and that will only take you so far in CF.

ALL of these guys are being overinflated.  I think a lot of guys have caught a bad case of Tatis syndrome.

[WestEddy]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

With the notable differences that one of them was already on the 40 man roster and one of them wasn't, and one of them could be transitioned to the bullpen to try things out and one of them...already was there.

Horn is closer to the bigs, and is left-handed. Whether you choose to recognize that as a plus or not is meaningless. the Sox just watched Horn pitch up close last Friday, and probably saw a pitcher who was workable. Thompson sure looks like he stalled out, Rick Hahn's empty praise aside. I certainly wish Thompson and Mena well. I cringe at the guys who call players "hot garbage" and such.

I seriously don't know if I'm not getting a inside site joke, or something. I remember the online blow-ups over at SouthSideSox when Jim Margalus ran it - over the trade of Jake Peter, or cutting Jordan Guerrero, two guys who brushed the bottom of the top ten for truly awful White Sox prospect lists back in the early-mid teens. 

You're advocating for never trading or cutting anybody except for 6 years of a sure-fire, can't miss #1 prospect who is 22 or younger. We all need to have dreams, but that's not really the way baseball works. MLB now has an organizational limit on players, and I'd rather the Sox concentrate on catching the 17-year-olds with stuff and working with them instead of pounding their heads against the wall with a guy who hasn't really clicked in 4 minor league seasons. 

Edited February 28 by WestEddy

[Autumn Dreamin]

Maybe Horn is that long term lefty piece in the pen to replace Bummer and Crochet (if he makes the switch to starting).

Or maybe he isn't. But they turned a rental of 30yo journeyman RHRP Keynan Middleton into a RH starter who has Thompson's positives of youth (22yo) and workload (222.2 IP over the last two seasons) with better control (3.3 BB/9) and better results (3.58 ERA).

Both are Rule 5 guys, but one seems closer to earning a roster spot. You can hold both and hope that Thompson makes a step this year that he hasn't made in the previous two...or you can cash in now if you think it's unlikely that he raises his value (to this team or another) before hitting minor league free agency.

And in the meantime you have several years of a lefty with good stuff who you can keep or trade as you please. Horn finished 2021 at A+ with a WHIP approaching 2 and an ERA well over 5. He repeated the level the next year, and dominated with a .700 WHIP and 0 ER in 10 appearances before being promoted. 

His first time at AA, he struggled again with a high WHIP (but a reasonable 3.46 ERA). Repeating AA last season, he dominates again with a <1 WHIP and 2 ERA before another quick promotion. He struggles again with a high WHIP his first time in AAA...Sensing a pattern?

I get that the Sox currently have Schrodinger's 40 man, where spots are either precious and limited or full of unsalvageable detritus who should be cut without hesitation, depending on what allows for the harshest judgement in the moment.

But the Sox are apparently convinced by Horn's demonstrated capacity for adjustment and progression that Thompson hasn't flashed yet (and reasonably confident in their ability to backfill future needs for RHSP with guys like Juan Carela and the upcoming crop of draft arms).

I'm not sure you get to accuse the move of being shortsighted if your "analysis" consists of "don't trade starters for relievers" or 23 < 26.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Autumn Dreamin said:

Maybe Horn is that long term lefty piece in the pen to replace Bummer and Crochet (if he makes the switch to starting).

Or maybe he isn't. But they turned a rental of 30yo journeyman RHRP Keynan Middleton into a RH starter who has Thompson's positives of youth (22yo) and workload (222.2 IP over the last two seasons) with better control (3.3 BB/9) and better results (3.58 ERA).

Both are Rule 5 guys, but one seems closer to earning a roster spot. You can hold both and hope that Thompson makes a step this year that he hasn't made in the previous two...or you can cash in now if you think it's unlikely that he raises his value (to this team or another) before hitting minor league free agency.

And in the meantime you have several years of a lefty with good stuff who you can keep or trade as you please. Horn finished 2021 at A+ with a WHIP approaching 2 and an ERA well over 5. He repeated the level the next year, and dominated with a .700 WHIP and 0 ER in 10 appearances before being promoted. 

His first time at AA, he struggled again with a high WHIP (but a reasonable 3.46 ERA). Repeating AA last season, he dominates again with a <1 WHIP and 2 ERA before another quick promotion. He struggles again with a high WHIP his first time in AAA...Sensing a pattern?

I get that the Sox currently have Schrodinger's 40 man, where spots are either precious and limited or full of unsalvageable detritus who should be cut without hesitation, depending on what allows for the harshest judgement in the moment.

But the Sox are apparently convinced by Horn's demonstrated capacity for adjustment and progression that Thompson hasn't flashed yet (and reasonably confident in their ability to backfill future needs for RHSP with guys like Juan Carela and the upcoming crop of draft arms).

I'm not sure you get to accuse the move of being shortsighted if your "analysis" consists of "don't trade starters for relievers" or 23 < 26.

Well done.

[Quin]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

ALL of these guys are being overinflated.  I think a lot of guys have caught a bad case of Tatis syndrome.

If I had to diagnose this thread, I'd say it's more about the fact that Getz is trying to half-ass build a "win-now" roster of older guys while trading youth.

I'm ambivalent towards moving Thompson overall cause he got buried. But it might have been worth seeing him as a reliever.

This isn't the Mena trade, which reeks of "call J.G. Wentworth, because I need a warm body in RF now!" The Sox are familiar with Horn, he's a lefty reliever which (as many have pointed out) is worth its weight in gold (or Nicky Lopez, Mike Soroka +++). He could become very valuable, or he could be s%*#! It's just that Getz' philosophy is "with Paul DeJong's glove, anything is possible for our pitchers. Empty the farm! Go!"

Edit: He's obviously not emptying the farm, but that's clearly why people are panicking. Because this is what the prior regime - that Getz was a part of - did.