How to fix Shane Smith and Vargas

[vilehoopster]

Well, baseball sure can turn around on you. The two guys, who four or five weeks ago, we were debating which one would be the Sox all-star rep, both of them have really fallen into the crapper. 

But what can we do to try to get them both back? So, here are my suggestions to try to get some discussion going and give us something to debate until the game tonight. 

1st for Vargas: I really don't know what to do about fixing him. His BA his last 15 games is (all my stats are off MLB.com) .127; for the last 30 it's .183 . . . ouch! I don't have a guess of what has happened, and I'm not ready to agree with the naysayers that May was the aberration, and last year and this last month is the real Vargas. But I am starting to consider they might be right. 

It's weird, watching the TV view from the centerfield camera, back in May, you'd see a good swing with good contact and it would go off or over the leftfield fence. The last few weeks as you watch, again from center camera, and he gets a good swing with good contact, and it doesn't even make it to the warning track, just a fly out to left field. I don't know. But what I do know is that the Sox have to pull him out of batting 4th or 3rd; he is killing them right now. Yesterday made it very clear, his results with guys in scorinng position are awful. I don't want the Sox to give up on him and believe (hope?) he can get it back together. But if the Sox care about winning games now and having a good showing against Cleveland, they have to move him down in the batting order. A month ago, I was complaining that he has no protection behind him; now he gives absolutely no protection to whoever is batting in front of him. 

2nd, now Shane Smith:  I do have a plan for him, and i think it would work. It would work to help the Sox win games going forward for now, and save on Smith's arm for now and next season. Smith's last four games have been terrible. In all four of those games he has given the Sox with their weak offense NO CHANCE to win. 

July 6 - Col -- 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings

July 1 - LAD - 6 earned in 4.2

June 23 - AZ - 5 earned in 2.0

June 17 - Stl. - 6 earned in 4.1  -- all four, no chance for Sox to win. 

I think the thing to do is (at least for the next month to rest his arm) is to turn him into a opener, for one inning, maybe two. 

And . . . I know exactly whom he should open for -- Tyler Alexander. When people lately have been discussing great pitching pick ups by the Sox, no one seems to be bringing up Tyler Alexander. If you want a contrast to Smith's last four games, look at what Alexander has down his last five games: 

July 7  -- Blue Jays -  3 innings - no runs (again off MLB.com)

July 1 -- Dodgers - 2.1 innings - no runs

June 27 -- Giants (not so good) - 3 innings - 2 earned runs 

June 25 -- AZ - 1 inning - no runs

June 20 Blue Jays - 4 innings - no runs

There's no way around that: that's some very impressive pitching against some really good offensive teams. 

I think the Sox need to sit Smith down and tell him (all-star or not) that there needs to be some changes and they need to rest his arm. Tell him he will be the opener for two innings and only two innings, even if he's throwing a perfect game. So he knows he can throw hard and work just to get six outs. I think this would go a long way to helping him and keeping the Sox in the games that he's been starting. Also, it's a nod to Alexander on how well he's been doing and that he knows going into the game that he's got a good 3 or 4 innings to cover and he can prepare. I really think this would work for a while. Try it three or four times and see how it goes. I think this would give the Sox six solid innings of pitching and give them more of a chance to win Shane Smith's upcoming starts.

 

Now about Meidroth, who has also really struggled his last 15 games . . . . I got nothing there. 

[Tony]

You just used 889 words in a topic titled " How to Fix Shane Smith and Miguel Vargas" and your conclusion was:

- Miguel Vargas: I don't know how to fix him

- Shane Smith: Pitch less than he is, because he's been bad

Just riveting stuff. 

[Tnetennba]

23 minutes ago, Tony said:

You just used 889 words in a topic titled " How to Fix Shane Smith and Miguel Vargas" and your conclusion was:

- Miguel Vargas: I don't know how to fix him

- Shane Smith: Pitch less than he is, because he's been bad

Just riveting stuff. 

A simple question mark in the title would go a long way.

[southsider2k5]

I don't know about Vargas, but we know for a fact that Shane Smith is approaching a career high in innings not even halfway through the season, and his previous career high of innings was achieved over a 6 month period and not a 3 month one.  Because of this it is tough to pick apart what is conditioning, what is the league figuring him out, or some combination of both.  Obviously on the conditioning side of things, the Sox need to get more involved in picking their spots to give him shorter outings, longer breaks etc.  It would be nice to let him continue on, but you really have to monitor his stuff his health to make sure that he isn't hurting himself to continue.  Injuries increase with fatigue, and we need to make sure we don't let that happen into a more major injury.

[Snopek]

1 hour ago, vilehoopster said:

I'm not ready to agree with the naysayers that May was the aberration, and last year and this last month is the real Vargas. But I am starting to consider they might be right. 

There’s really no reason to decide what Vargas is until after the season.

Let him play out the rest of the season and if he mostly struggles, yeah, he probably ain’t it. That’s a lot of at bats to go off of at that point.

But the Sox are in a position to let him work through things and see if he can make more adjustments.

[southsider2k5]

21 minutes ago, Snopek said:

There’s really no reason to decide what Vargas is until after the season.

Let him play out the rest of the season and if he mostly struggles, yeah, he probably ain’t it. That’s a lot of at bats to go off of at that point.

But the Sox are in a position to let him work through things and see if he can make more adjustments.

I mean yes, you don't bench him unless he turns into Vinny Capra.  We have the time to figure out who he is, let him (and the others in similar situations) the rope they need.

[Boopa1219]

They should throw Shane Smith on the IL for dead arm after the ASB. He’s never pitched this much, and certainly not this far into a season. He needs to give his body a break. Then they should do the Crochet thing where he goes 4IP at a time 

[vilehoopster]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

You just used 889 words in a topic titled " How to Fix Shane Smith and Miguel Vargas" and your conclusion was:

- Miguel Vargas: I don't know how to fix him

- Shane Smith: Pitch less than he is, because he's been bad

Just riveting stuff. 

Well, please let me reply in the same tone that you exhibited in your comment. 

So, I didn't say anything about moving Vargas down in the order but staying with him and giving him time? The giving him time and not giving up on him; it seems by other's less insulting comments that they agree. 

So, nothing about how well Tyler Alexander has been pitching and how we need to be giving him Smith's innings as the Sox reduce Smith's innings for a while? Nothing on that? I didn't mention that?

Here's a crazy idea. Next time, instead of letting the computer count how many words are in a post, maybe your should read them?

 

"Hey, Tony, what do you think of that book?"

"I hated it!"

"Really Tony, what didn't you like about it?"

"Oh, I didn't read it. It had too many words."

[southsider2k5]

45 minutes ago, Boopa1219 said:

They should throw Shane Smith on the IL for dead arm after the ASB. He’s never pitched this much, and certainly not this far into a season. He needs to give his body a break. Then they should do the Crochet thing where he goes 4IP at a time 

Obviously you want him to keep pitching as long as he isn't hurting himself doing so, but I also would have no problems with a couple weeks off and/or shorter and shorter stints.

[soxrwhite]

When was the last time Miedroth got a legit hit? Quero maybe the only CORE player we have going forward.

[Boopa1219]

I want to see Vargas with a full off season with these changes under his belt. I’m not too worried about him right now, the league figuring him out was due to happen, now he has to learn how to adjust back.

[kitekrazy]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mean yes, you don't bench him unless he turns into Vinny Capra.  We have the time to figure out who he is, let him (and the others in similar situations) the rope they need.

If that were the case they would try to bat him twice in the lineup.

Edited July 10 by kitekrazy

[kitekrazy]

37 minutes ago, Boopa1219 said:

I want to see Vargas with a full off season with these changes under his belt. I’m not too worried about him right now, the league figuring him out was due to happen, now he has to learn how to adjust back.

I often find this statement interesting.  Good scouting not named the White Sox know this already. DO you think they keep MiLB scouting reports hidden?

We are addicted to small sample sizes good or bad. 

What made that trade really bad was getting a player with no options.

I think 2026 will be a better revelation.

I'm just glad he doesn't look like a player under severe depression like last year.

[greg775]

3 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

2nd, now Shane Smith:  I do have a plan for him, and i think it would work. It would work to help the Sox win games going forward for now, and save on Smith's arm for now and next season.

I think the Sox need to sit Smith down and tell him (all-star or not) that there needs to be some changes and they need to rest his arm. Tell him he will be the opener for two innings and only two innings

Now about Meidroth, who has also really struggled his last 15 games . . . . I got nothing there. 

I read your whole post and enjoyed it. Good stats; good post. ... However I tire of the White Sox having possible solutions to problems or expected problems no other teams with a clue ever have. This desire to save arms for the future, rest the arms now. And worrying about things to do for players in hitting slumps. Look, Meidroth plays every day and see what you have. If he's utterly pathetic and you have to bench him, fine. And Smith ... geez. Just have the guy pitch. If you deem his stuff has become totally hittable either send him to the minors or suffer with his bad performances. It's a long season. If the Sox think Vargas is a big league regular, play him every day with the occasional day off. That's baseball.

Edited July 10 by greg775

[kitekrazy]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Obviously you want him to keep pitching as long as he isn't hurting himself doing so, but I also would have no problems with a couple weeks off and/or shorter and shorter stints.

That would call for a Clevinger sighting.

If he does get hurt and depending on the injury that could be a 2027 appearance.

[Chisoxfn]

6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't know about Vargas, but we know for a fact that Shane Smith is approaching a career high in innings not even halfway through the season, and his previous career high of innings was achieved over a 6 month period and not a 3 month one.  Because of this it is tough to pick apart what is conditioning, what is the league figuring him out, or some combination of both.  Obviously on the conditioning side of things, the Sox need to get more involved in picking their spots to give him shorter outings, longer breaks etc.  It would be nice to let him continue on, but you really have to monitor his stuff his health to make sure that he isn't hurting himself to continue.  Injuries increase with fatigue, and we need to make sure we don't let that happen into a more major injury.

I think giving him a bit of a breather here with all star break coming up will be a good thing - but there is also benefit on a bad team in terms of how you can develop through this as well.  

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, greg775 said:

I read your whole post and enjoyed it. Good stats; good post. ... However I tire of the White Sox having possible solutions to problems or expected problems no other teams with a clue ever have. This desire to save arms for the future, rest the arms now. And worrying about things to do for players in hitting slumps. Look, Meidroth plays every day and see what you have. If he's utterly pathetic and you have to bench him, fine. And Smith ... geez. Just have the guy pitch. If you deem his stuff has become totally hittable either send him to the minors or suffer with his bad performances. It's a long season. If the Sox think Vargas is a big league regular, play him every day with the occasional day off. That's baseball.

You can't ignore Smith's injury history since high school and Wake Forest, the total innings count the last three or four seasons as well as the more recent velocity uptick and seeming crash in his results and just have him try to pitch through it when this is all completely new to him as a rookie in the big leagues...need to really sit down and map out a new plan or strategy to address what's going on.

[tray]

Pitchers probably seek to avoid throwing a lot of off-speed pitches to Chase.  He is adept at adjusting his approach/swing and guiding ground balls through holes in the infield.  That is a big part of his offense and if you minimize it, you take away a part of his game.

Edited July 11 by tray

[greg775]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

You can't ignore Smith's injury history since high school and Wake Forest, the total innings count the last three or four seasons as well as the more recent velocity uptick and seeming crash in his results and just have him try to pitch through it when this is all completely new to him as a rookie in the big leagues...need to really sit down and map out a new plan or strategy to address what's going on.

Why?

In the old days of Jack Morris, Gary Peters, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins, LaMarr Hoyt, Juan Marachal, Mark Buehrle, such things as rest were not considered. Ballplayers played ball. To heck with pitch counts in college and workload. They just pitched.

[fathom]

11 hours ago, tray said:

Pitchers probably seek to avoid throwing a lot of off-speed pitches to Chase.  He is adept at adjusting his approach/swing and guiding ground balls through holes in the infield.  That is a big part of his offense and if you minimize it, you take away a part of his game.

He’s been horrible against breaking balls this year 

[southsider2k5]

9 hours ago, greg775 said:

Why?

In the old days of Jack Morris, Gary Peters, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins, LaMarr Hoyt, Juan Marachal, Mark Buehrle, such things as rest were not considered. Ballplayers played ball. To heck with pitch counts in college and workload. They just pitched.

And what happened to the ones who got hurt?

[Tnetennba]

24 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And what happened to the ones who got hurt?

You see, a lack of reporting means it never happened... and therefore I get to exist in my olden days bubble that doesn't allow any new information to enter...

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

You see, a lack of reporting means it never happened... and therefore I get to exist in my olden days bubble that doesn't allow any new information to enter...

And we all know what sports reporters are worth.

[Tnetennba]

9 hours ago, greg775 said:

Why?

In the old days of Jack Morris, Gary Peters, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins, LaMarr Hoyt, Juan Marachal, Mark Buehrle, such things as rest were not considered. Ballplayers played ball. To heck with pitch counts in college and workload. They just pitched.

Refusing to acknowledge the ways the game has changed does not make it reality.

 

[Boopa1219]

9 hours ago, greg775 said:

Why?

In the old days of Jack Morris, Gary Peters, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins, LaMarr Hoyt, Juan Marachal, Mark Buehrle, such things as rest were not considered. Ballplayers played ball. To heck with pitch counts in college and workload. They just pitched.

We’ve gotten so much smarter since then. Not to mention guys weren’t max effort and not everyone was throwing 95