KW "We're a lot closer than the record indicates"

[witesoxfan]

What do advanced stats say about Shields and his immediate future as he continues to age? I'm not being smart aleck I'm serious. Cause the eye test tells me he's not dominant and could be a huge free agent bust moving forward.

I am right now listening to talk radio and the hosts are saying he's not worth the money and the Royals properly will let him walk. Granted they can't afford him but they also are saying good riddance because he's certain to be on the decline.

Little surprised people on this board wanted to get rid of Buehrle and want Shields. Interesting considering the ages of said pitchers at times of signing.

 

Advanced stats say the same thing, but a lot of times, a pitcher's reputation and their most recent pitching performances are what will get them paid on the open market. However, teams are willing to pay approximately $6 million or so per win, give or take, and if you pencil Shields in as a #2-3 starting pitcher who will put up 3-4 WAR for the next 2-3 years, you have no problem giving him $18-20 mill per year over 4-5 years at the expense of his production towards the end of that deal.

[southsider2k5]

What do advanced stats say about Shields and his immediate future as he continues to age? I'm not being smart aleck I'm serious. Cause the eye test tells me he's not dominant and could be a huge free agent bust moving forward.

I am right now listening to talk radio and the hosts are saying he's not worth the money and the Royals properly will let him walk. Granted they can't afford him but they also are saying good riddance because he's certain to be on the decline.

Little surprised people on this board wanted to get rid of Buehrle and want Shields. Interesting considering the ages of said pitchers at times of signing.

 

The great part is that the deeper the Royals go, the more pressure there is on them to pay a big time contract to either Shields or another front end starter to keep this run going.

[oldsox]

What's the amount needed for the QO status this year? Gotta be close to $15 large.

[BlackSox13]

What's the amount needed for the QO status this year? Gotta be close to $15 large.

Yup. Last I read it was speculated to be about 15.1M.

 

As for Masterson. If he does get 12M, I hope its not with the Sox. No way in hell Masterson is worth that. I would give him 8M and offer an additional 1-2M in performance incentives.

[Rowand44]

I really don't care what the money is if Masterson is looking for only a 1 year deal, sign him up.

Edited October 6, 2014 by Rowand44

[2nd_city_saint787]

I really don't care what the money is if Masterson is looking for only a 1 year deal, sign him up.

 

I'm in this camp as well. I truly believe if the deal makes sense, for any player, then money won't be an issue. Masterson for a year makes a lot of sense.

Edited October 6, 2014 by scs787

[Eminor3rd]

Yup. Last I read it was speculated to be about 15.1M.

 

As for Masterson. If he does get 12M, I hope its not with the Sox. No way in hell Masterson is worth that. I would give him 8M and offer an additional 1-2M in performance incentives.

 

The thing about 1 year deals is that it just doesn't matter that much UNLESS it's money that could have gone somewhere else.

 

With the Sox likely not to be real players in the big multi-year deal market, there's a good chance this year's payroll could sustain $12m easily without taking away from anything else Hahn wants to do. If that's the case, then we gotta do it.

[Eminor3rd]

What do advanced stats say about Shields and his immediate future as he continues to age? I'm not being smart aleck I'm serious. Cause the eye test tells me he's not dominant and could be a huge free agent bust moving forward.

I am right now listening to talk radio and the hosts are saying he's not worth the money and the Royals properly will let him walk. Granted they can't afford him but they also are saying good riddance because he's certain to be on the decline.

Little surprised people on this board wanted to get rid of Buehrle and want Shields. Interesting considering the ages of said pitchers at times of signing.

 

His velocity is down and he's maintaining his excellent K/BB ratio by conceding more contact, which means (1) his success is much more reliant on having an elite defense, which the Royals do but other teams do not, (2) his success is and will continue to be much more reliant on batted ball luck, and therefore potentially volatile, and (3) his decline in stuff has been superficially underrated by 1 and 2 this year.

 

I'm with you on this one. Shields has been a great player, but he's a ticking free agency time bomb at this stage.

[BlackSox13]

If the Sox are not legit contenders I see no point in Masterson out side of doing like the cubs and trade Masterson at the all star break in which case the money will very much matter to the team trading for him. Just my opinion but if the Sox are not going to be contenders then let Bassitt take that spot in the rotation and get him some more innings at the MLB level to see what he can do.

[Rowand44]

If the Sox are not legit contenders I see no point in Masterson out side of doing like the cubs and trade Masterson at the all star break in which case the money will very much matter to the team trading for him. Just my opinion but if the Sox are not going to be contenders then let Bassitt take that spot in the rotation and get him some more innings at the MLB level to see what he can do.

Ya but they think they can be contenders. If you sign Masterson for 12 mill, you still have plenty of money to work with to fill some of the other holes on the team. If he's back to his '13 form, you have an elite rotation(including Rodon here of course) and a pretty decent chance to contend. If he still sucks, he's gone after one year, no harm.

[witesoxfan]

If the Sox are not legit contenders I see no point in Masterson out side of doing like the cubs and trade Masterson at the all star break in which case the money will very much matter to the team trading for him. Just my opinion but if the Sox are not going to be contenders then let Bassitt take that spot in the rotation and get him some more innings at the MLB level to see what he can do.

 

If the Sox do end up trading him like the Cubs did, and money was an issue for the acquiring team, the Sox would have no problem eating some in that situation as they were clearly willing to give him $12 mill in the first place.

[southsider2k5]

I really don't care what the money is if Masterson is looking for only a 1 year deal, sign him up.

 

I'd rather see the team spend a 1 year $12million deal for Masterson, than something like a 4/80 for Shields for example.

[BlackSox13]

Ya but they think they can be contenders. If you sign Masterson for 12 mill, you still have plenty of money to work with to fill some of the other holes on the team. If he's back to his '13 form, you have an elite rotation(including Rodon here of course) and a pretty decent chance to contend. If he still sucks, he's gone after one year, no harm.

 

Of course they say they can be contenders, isn't that what they are supposed to say? There's an aweful lot of holes to fill in one off season. Hahn has already said they are not going on a free agent spending spree but they can bring in higher salary players via trade. That's great but that will cost prospects and will the Sox have enough quality prospects to bring in a few hitters to help the offense?

 

I would rather spend that 12M on a player that can help the Sox long term, not for just one year. For a team like the Sox that have so many holes to fill. Masterson is the finishing touch the team signs after they have the other pieces in place to make them a contender.

[Kyyle23]

I am pretty leery of Masterson after this past year. His stuff really dropped off

[chw42]

I am pretty leery of Masterson after this past year. His stuff really dropped off

 

Yeah. Masterson's usually had alternating good years throughout his career though. But the drop in velocity is very discouraging.

[Kyyle23]

Yeah. Masterson's usually had alternating good years throughout his career though. But the drop in velocity is very discouraging.

 

It has taken some bad location pitches from foul offs to blasts. He just didnt have that crazy sidewinder movement that I usually saw when he pitched

[Eminor3rd]

Of course they say they can be contenders, isn't that what they are supposed to say? There's an aweful lot of holes to fill in one off season. Hahn has already said they are not going on a free agent spending spree but they can bring in higher salary players via trade. That's great but that will cost prospects and will the Sox have enough quality prospects to bring in a few hitters to help the offense?

 

I would rather spend that 12M on a player that can help the Sox long term, not for just one year. For a team like the Sox that have so many holes to fill. Masterson is the finishing touch the team signs after they have the other pieces in place to make them a contender.

 

It's like a read option. You go in looking for one thing (contention), but if it isn't working out, you have an easy backup plan. This model of "contending while rebuilding" makes a ton of sense for a lot of reasons. Chiefly, you're trying to dodge service time AND wean guys into a full season of innings anyway. It doesn't hurt to throw some innings at a veteran and see what you have, particularly when you can then trade him to give your system even more prospects.

[Rowand44]

I am pretty leery of Masterson after this past year. His stuff really dropped off

 

 

Yeah. Masterson's usually had alternating good years throughout his career though. But the drop in velocity is very discouraging.

I will say that I should have researched a bit more on Masterson, as for whatever reason I just figured he had a crappy year but didn't even think his arm could be in trouble.

 

It's like a read option. You go in looking for one thing (contention), but if it isn't working out, you have an easy backup plan. This model of "contending while rebuilding" makes a ton of sense for a lot of reasons. Chiefly, you're trying to dodge service time AND wean guys into a full season of innings anyway. It doesn't hurt to throw some innings at a veteran and see what you have, particularly when you can then trade him to give your system even more prospects.

I do like this analogy.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah. Masterson's usually had alternating good years throughout his career though. But the drop in velocity is very discouraging.

 

He was pretty steadily between 92-93 on his fastball, and he went from 93 to just over 90 this year. Any injury talk? I didn't realize there was that kind of drop off.

[Balta1701]

He was pretty steadily between 92-93 on his fastball, and he went from 93 to just over 90 this year. Any injury talk? I didn't realize there was that kind of drop off.

This is why the "$12 million" y'all were quoting was scaring the heck out of me as I read it.

[witesoxfan]

There could be any number of things going on with Masterson. It could be injury, his body naturally slowing down, he may have been intentionally throwing slower to induce more movement, or something else entirely. It's hard to just look at decreased velocity in a vacuum and say "he's injured" because that's not always the case.

 

There were a few weird things that went on with Masterson this year that simply haven't happened before (or in a while, at the very least). He had a 14.6% HR/FB, which was the highest it's been since his rookie year with Boston. He had a higher than normal BABIP, but it wasn't higher by an incredible amount. His BB% did increase this year. And, for whatever reason, he's never been good about stranding runners - he's had 4 seasons of LOB% below 70%, which is not good. Some of that can likely be correlated to poor Indians defense and Masterson benig a sinkerballer, but not all of it.

 

He's intriguing, but I think he should be a fall back option.

[BlackSox13]

It's like a read option. You go in looking for one thing (contention), but if it isn't working out, you have an easy backup plan. This model of "contending while rebuilding" makes a ton of sense for a lot of reasons. Chiefly, you're trying to dodge service time AND wean guys into a full season of innings anyway. It doesn't hurt to throw some innings at a veteran and see what you have, particularly when you can then trade him to give your system even more prospects.

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with spending 12M on him. I COULD see it if the Sox were contenders but not where they currently stand.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with spending 12M on him. I COULD see it if the Sox were contenders but not where they currently stand.

 

The thing is, it doesn't really matter whether WE see them as contenders or not. If the FO thinks it then that's all that matters.

 

After arbitration the Sox payroll would be around 56M, adding 12M to that only puts them at 69M and they already addressed the rotation. IF they really think they can contend it wouldn't shock me 1 bit if the payroll is back to around 100M. So we're talking 31M for some bullpen arms, a LFer, and a DH (Assuming Dayan isn't one of those). That seems extremely possible.

 

[BlackSox13]

Well guys, I've pretty much said all I have to say on Masterson. I just don't agree with spending 12M on him, that's all.

[caulfield12]

It's like a read option. You go in looking for one thing (contention), but if it isn't working out, you have an easy backup plan. This model of "contending while rebuilding" makes a ton of sense for a lot of reasons. Chiefly, you're trying to dodge service time AND wean guys into a full season of innings anyway. It doesn't hurt to throw some innings at a veteran and see what you have, particularly when you can then trade him to give your system even more prospects.

 

Except we said this about Paulino and our veteran pen guys eight months ago.

No way on masterson unless we can control him going into 2016 if he pitches at his previous level again.