My/Your Off Season Plan

[greg775]

You're right...the White Sox could probably get to where the Twins are if they get lucky and they spend a ton of money and sacrifice the guys moving up to AAA next year, but what's the point of that? What are the odds that the AL only takes 84 wins to get to the 2nd wild card next year? If you have to blow another $20 million beyond this season and trade away Montas and other top parts from our minor leagues to to get to 83 wins and above .500, it's a normal season where you're 5 wins outside of the wild card, then you fall back out of the playoff picture the next year because you spent everything you could to win in 2016 and have no money left to add any more and you've depleted your minor leagues again, what good is that? If you spend $25 million more and then someone gets hurt and you wind up at 77 wins because of it, what kind of a mess have you made? You know what that looks like? The 2015 season. It looks like the same mess.

 

Yes, there's a lot of status quo. That's the mess we made in 2015. We now have a combination of "guys who are unmovable" and "guys who we can't have any confidence in until they give us a reason to". We can have more excitement, but we're going to have to move someone we don't want to move to make that happen. Either empty the minors on something or move Quintana, Sale, or Rodon. Frankly, I'd rather sit on my hands than trade those guys given that I don't think we'll get the kind of overwhelming deal I'd need to part with them.

 

Anyway, I don't expect the White Sox to do any of that, because of the opening of that post. They're in denial. It permeates this season. "If we keep playing like this we'll be right there at the end" said Rick Hahn at the deadline after a short, unsustainable streak against 2 teams playing terrible ball at the time. We were in denial last offseason - "guys will develop because we say they will" "Defense doesn't matter" "there's no risk on the FA market". We were in denial all season "we're just waiting for a winning streak" "We'll be right there at the end". We were in denial at both trade deadlines - there's no reason whatsoever why Soto and Albers should still be on this roster right now, they should have been turned into something by August 31 even after the Samardzija mistake.

 

And I expect that after the WS ends we'll continue that denial and pick up Alexei's option. We will insist "oh this was just an abberration, if we try the same thing again it's sure to work this time". We will spend some money on mid-level free agents, get our usual "happy press conference", make a big trade of some sort to get ourselves in the news, and it'll probably work just about as well.

 

Maybe they'll prove me wrong and actually act like they understand "this is your real roster". Maybe they'll get lucky and "doing the same thing" will actually somehow work - people do win the lottery sometimes, but it's not a long-term, successful solution for financial planning. But if their "try to win in 2016 moves" work and push them to 85 wins, it'll probably be the worst thing for the org because it'll put them right where they were in 2013 - in denial about how weak their roster really is and convinced that they don't need to worry about a sustainable future path.

 

Good post again. I do agree that Alexei has to be dumped. I do think we'll be actually weaker at short without him though. I think Saladino will probably pull a Gillaspie - that is, regress. Hopefully Anderson could be called up as you said.

[Balta1701]

Good post again. I do agree that Alexei has to be dumped. I do think we'll be actually weaker at short without him though. I think Saladino will probably pull a Gillaspie - that is, regress. Hopefully Anderson could be called up as you said.

If Saladino regresses, I have no problem with Anderson taking over that spot mid-season as long as he's earning it. Frankly, if Saladino is worse than he is this year in the first half...he'll look like Alexei Ramirez in the first half of 2015. At least he won't be paid handsomely for the privilege.

[oldsox]

I don't think Sox will get rid of Alexi. They keep playing him -- one day off is all. Don't get it.

 

Things look pretty bleak for 2016. Especially with Hahn running the trade show. I think Sox need to trade one of Sale/Q -- at least determine what we could get for either one of them.

[flavum]

You lost me at trading Fulmer, which I don't think is allowed.

 

Getting Latos made be vomit in my mouth a little.

Edited September 22, 2015 by flavum

[Bob Sacamano]

I'd love if the Sox could get Plouffe unfortunately it isn't going to happen.

[Dunt]

I think you're getting a better player than Plouffe if you're trading Fulmer

 

 

Edit: Not to say I wouldnt love Plouffe on the Sox, I just think Fulmer would be part of a monster package for someone

Edited September 22, 2015 by Dunt

[southsider2k5]

You lost me at trading Fulmer, which I don't think is allowed.

 

Getting Latos made be vomit in my mouth a little.

 

With the rule changes a draft pick can be traded after the world series in his draft year.

[OmarComing25]

After all the talk about Upton and Heyward I completely forgot about Gordon, but didn't realize he was already 31.

[southsider2k5]

I will say this much. The pending free agent who best fits the White Sox needs right now is a guy that hasn't been talked about at all. That name is Matt Wieters.

[Jose Abreu]

Yeah, I don't think Fulmer for Plouffe is fair to the Sox. I also think Quintana is worth a little more than Swihart/Marrero/Kelly. He's a #1/#2 starter on a cheap contract. His value is more than just Swihart and a couple throw-ins. I know Swihart is a top-20 MLB prospect, and he's a good centerpiece for Quintana, but I think Boston would have to throw in another top-100 guy or two.

[Jose Abreu]

I will say this much. The pending free agent who best fits the White Sox needs right now is a guy that hasn't been talked about at all. That name is Matt Wieters.

His health issues concern me.

[southsider2k5]

His health issues concern me.

 

Those will also be the reason he didn't see a huge contract on the open market.

[OmarComing25]

Maybe Fulmer-Plouffe is a little light on the Sox end but Plouffe hits 20 HR/year in Minnesota and has taken big strides forward on defense.

The trade also gives me some pause because I don't want to see Fulmer killing us for years in Minnesota.

[Jose Abreu]

Maybe Fulmer-Plouffe is a little light on the Sox end but Plouffe hits 20 HR/year in Minnesota and has taken big strides forward on defense.

Yeah, Plouffe is a good player, there's no denying that. He could be a good fit here as our 3B. But I wouldn't trade Fulmer for him.

[SoxAce]

You lost me at trading Fulmer

Yea that's not happening. I still think this team isn't THAT far off, but not a year away either.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, Plouffe is a good player, there's no denying that. He could be a good fit here as our 3B. But I wouldn't trade Fulmer for him.

 

I am not trading Fulmer to the Twins unless we get back Sano.

[AlSoxfan]

Resurrecting this thread because I am bored in a waiting room.

 

Trade Trayce Thompson to Milwaukee for Will Smith.

Trade Avi Garcia to Oakland for Craig Gentry.

Sign Alex Gordon (if 1st round pick protected). 5yr/90mil

Trade Quintana for Chrisitan Vasquez/Blake Swihart, Deven Marrero and Joe Kelly. I think Red Sox would rather keep Vasquez so Swihart.

Trade Carson Fulmer for Trevor Plouffe.

Sign Mat Latos. 1yr/9mil.

 

vs. RHP

CF Eaton

LF Cabrera

1B Abreu

RF Gordon

3B Plouffe

DH LaRoche

C Swihart/Flowers

SS Ramirez

2B Micah

 

vs. LHP

LF Eaton

DH Cabrera

1B Abreu

RF Gordon

3B Plouffe

SS Ramirez

CF Gentry

C Swihart/Flowers

2B Sanchez

 

Bench: C Flowers/Swihart, INF/2B Sanchez/Johnson, DH/OF LaRoche/Gentry and Saladino/Shuck (whoever wins the spot).

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Rodon

SP3 Latos

SP4 Danks

SP5 Johnson

 

RHP Robertson

RHP Nate Jones

LHP Will Smith

LHP Zach Duke

RHP Zach Putnam

RP Joe Kelly/Dan Jennings/Montas/FA flier

RP Joe Kelly/Dan Jennings/Montas/FA flier

 

I might be stretching that Thompson could get Smith but that'd my plan.

-Defense gets a lot better (Add Gordon, Plouffe, Gentry, subtract Avi and Eaton is CF on somedays.)

-Young controllable talent switches from pitching side to hitting side (Add Swihart/Marrero/Plouffe, subtract Quintana/Fulmer.)

-Pitching takes a slight dip (Add Latos/Smith/Kelly, subtract Q/Fulmer.)

-Hitting gets way better (C, 3B, OF, legitimate back up SS)

So far IMO this seems to be the most do-able and best plan I've seen without the lopsided trades (we do seem to value our players a bit much) and keeps our payroll about right. I would like to keep Albers though and agree the Smith trade might take more. I'd also rather sign Heyward than Gordon but that would blow the budget.(just dreamin) Good plan

[2Dbill]

I’m a new member on the site who is a lifelong white sox fan. I don’t claim any special expertize. I recently retired and enjoy reading the different topics posted on the site. I’d like to take a crack at a plan for next year.

I would like to start out by saying that I fall into the camp of not seeing how we can compete for any post season spot next year. I do however see the next 12 months,however, as crucial to the White sox competing once again.

To begin:

Extend a QO to Jeff Samardzija

Do not pick option on Alexi Ramierz

Resign Matt Albers

Resign Geovany Soto

Free Agency:

Sign Scott Kazmir to a three year deal (I know this seems stupid to spend free agent money on the team’s strength when there are other needs on the team, but it’s part of a larger short range plan.)

Trades

Trade Jose Quintana to the Arizona Debacks for SS prospect Dansby Swanson, relief pitcher Silvino Bracho, SS prospect Isan Diaz and their first round pick in the supplemental 2015 draft.

Trade Avi Garcia and Jacob May to the Mets for pitcher Zack Wheeler and 1st base Prospect Dominic Smith.

Trade David Robertson to the Boston Red Sox for prospect OF Andrew Benintendi and Pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza.

Trade Micah Johnson and Adam Laroche(and 10 million dollars) to the Pittsburg Pirates for catching prospect Reese Mcguire.

I think all these trades ae doable because:

in Arizona’s case even though it’s a big step to trade the first pick in the draft from reading their site information they feel they are close to contending but their primary weakness to competing for a playoff spot is their starting pitching.

In the Met’s case they want they want reasonably priced hitting talent (who doesn’t). They almost traded Wheeler for Carlos Gomez of Milwaukee. One of the rumors for the trade failing though was that Milwaukee would not pick up any of Gomez’s salary. It’s also interesting to note that Avi Garcia’s current hitting statistics are almost identical to that of Carlos Gomez.

In Boston’s case their site is saying that they need both a quality starter and a closer. They even mention Roberson a one of their possible targets in the off season.

In Pittsburg’s case they have seem to be in need of pitching and infield help. They have young starting catcher and are not in need of a replacement at this time. Laroche used to play for them and I would hope they would want someone to mentor their 1st base prospect Josh Bell(you can’t get much cheaper than 3mil).

I’m trying to take advantage of the new rules for the drafting of this year’s draft picks after the end of the current season. I think that clubs are more hesitant to trade players who are ready to contribute right away and there is usually at least a six month delay in even the best of prospects joining their parent clubs.

International draft

According to Baseball America’s Ben Brader there was a “huge game changer” last week. MLB has started granting unexpected exemptions for Cuban players who will be eligible to sign this year. These are players who had been thought not to eligible until next year’s International Draft(e.g.Jorge Ona, Cionel Perez, Ronald Bolanos) this is in addition to this year’s eligible player Eddy Julio Martinez. The Sox need to be all over this new development. They can no longer take the view that either it’s not right or it’s too expensive to go your allotted budget. This is a rare opportunity to obtain some quality talent.

One extra thing signing

I did not mention this earlier but I am ok with the Sox signing someone for one year to play third(Juan Uribe ?).

In the bullpen I would have the same cast of characters plus Frankie Montas and Silvino Bracho from the Dback trade.

The starting position players would be Jose Abreu 1st , Carlos Sanchez 2nd,Tyler Saladino SS, Juan Uribe 3rd,Tyler Flowers catcher. Melky Cabera LF, Adam Eaton CF and Trace Thompson RF.

The starting pitchers would be Carlos Rodon, Chris Sale, John Danks, Scott Kazmir and Erik Johnson.

Mid year changes:

I could be wrong but I suspect next year’s team will be at the same level of competiveness or even a little worse than this year’s team. If this is indeed the case then I would look to trade Scott Kazmir at the trade deadline. Even though we did not take advantage of the situation this year Samardzija , I would not make the same mistake .I would hope that Kazmir would be an attractive trade piece as he would not be a partial year rental but would be signed for over 2years..By that point I would hope that Zach Wheeler is available to begin pitching for the Sox.

I would expect the same or a slightly worse result than what we had this year. At least we would have a better idea of what we have or don’t have with our current young players.

The end result:

The big payoff would be in 2017. Most of the prospect players that we traded for are projected to join their teams in 2017 . The only exceptions are Isan Diaz(voted the MVP of Pioneer league ) and Anderson Espinoza who are quality prospects although their achievements thus far are at the lower leagues.

We would have money available for free agents from the salaries of John Danks ,Scott Kazmir, Juan Uribe and the bulk of Adam Laroche’s salary. Our farm system should be full of prospects from our current group plus the two additions from above who are not ready for 2017 and whomever we draft in 2016 with our 3 first round draft picks and hopefully from our international Cuban signings from this year.

 

[LDF]

I’m a new member on the site who is a lifelong white sox fan. I don’t claim any special expertize. I recently retired and enjoy reading the different topics

 

welcome to the site .... best group of informed posters on baseball. i just wish i was one.

 

from 1 retired person to another. enjoy the beginning of the new and hopefully successful era of sox baseball.

 

btw, i don't know if i ever saw a first post as big as yours.

 

btw 2 - how do you like the minor leagues???

[OmarComing25]

Thank you and agree 100% on the bolded. Objectivity people, let's capture it!

Agreed but to me I either see people way overvaluing our guys or way undervaluing them. Almost every Quintana proposal either has me imagining Hahn hanging up the phone immediately or personally driving him to the airport.

[LDF]

Agreed but to me I either see people way overvaluing our guys or way undervaluing them. Almost every Quintana proposal either has me imagining Hahn hanging up the phone immediately or personally driving him to the airport.

 

i am not disagreeing but i look at this way.

 

the real homers / fans have always done that, for me, it goes back to the grammar school days. it is great to think like that.

 

now comes the reality of getting older, many still like to think like that, it is the cold hard facts to realize they will always be a difference there.

 

nothing can ever chg that.

 

but as a fan, i like it.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I will say this much. The pending free agent who best fits the White Sox needs right now is a guy that hasn't been talked about at all. That name is Matt Wieters.

 

 

I wouldn't give up a 1st round pick to sign him though.

[3GamesToLove]

I will say this much. The pending free agent who best fits the White Sox needs right now is a guy that hasn't been talked about at all. That name is Matt Wieters.

 

A guy whose career high in OPS+ over a full season is 110. That's good for a catcher in this day and age, of course, but that will be five years ago. His defensive numbers have cratered as well. I don't know anything about his framing abilities off the top of my head, but signing him to something long-term feels like an albatross waiting to happen.

[Bob Sacamano]

A guy whose career high in OPS+ over a full season is 110. That's good for a catcher in this day and age, of course, but that will be five years ago. His defensive numbers have cratered as well. I don't know anything about his framing abilities off the top of my head, but signing him to something long-term feels like an albatross waiting to happen.

 

Do you think it is possible that he takes a one year deal somewhere to rebuild value? Of course idk if anyone would go for that and give up a draftpick for him (assuming he gets a QO)

[BamaDoc]

What are the boards thoughts on Marcell Ozuna? Marlins owner disappointed in him. Had great 2014 but questions of his conditioning this year. Pros: young 24, has some power, CF ability with dwar about 0. Cons: Boras client though earliest FA 2020, strikeouts about once per game, conditioning/attitude? Supposedly Marlins looking for pitching. Could Avi and a pitching prospect do it or just pitching prospects? Put him in RF