Jake Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 We have a couple of topical threads around, one (well, several) about firing the manager and another about the team playing better when the players meet expectations. I would like to counter both of those explanations for the team playing badly with another one: the team doesn't have enough talent. The Sox have enough talent to get lucky and win; in April we saw how the right bounces of ball and guys getting hot at the same time can produce a hell of a run. But if the guys on this team are on average just meeting expectations (for every guy who exceeds them another guy doesn't meet them) then there isn't enough talent. The fallacy that is easy to fall into is looking at the struggling players and saying if they played well, the team would be however much better. But this ignores the guys who are playing over their heads. You could have looked at Abreu a few weeks ago and sounded the alarm, claiming everything will be good if he starts hitting. He started hitting, but a guy like Lawrie regressing over the same time span completely cancels out the boost we got from Abreu starting to hit as expected. The thing about that, though, is we should have expected Lawrie to regress. There are obviously many other examples. So that's the issue. As for the manager, the amount of talent on this team doesn't necessarily say anything about whether he should be kept. If your argument is that he has ruined an obvious playoff team, then you are wrong. But you could argue that a good manager should lift a team with middling talent into playoff contention and on those grounds you could say the manager should be replaced as we seek someone to get this team to play above its talent level. You might also say simply that after a certain amount of time, if things don't happen—like a playoff appearance—then the manager should be fired. That's reasonable. You might also say that it's wrong to fire a manager who has never had playoff-level talent to manage on the grounds that his teams only play to their talent level. All acceptable arguments. But it's doubtless that the main problem is the talent. That is unless you subscribe to the idea that numerous guys on the team's true talent expectations for this season are beyond anything they have ever shown with their track record (might call this the "Tyler Saladino fallacy"). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigsoxhurt35 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 This team has more than one problem honestly. Front office, ownership, players, evaluators. All is a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 South: Agree. It's not just one area a basic fix or a simple fix. Like I said the Sox are between a rock and a hard place with no easy solutions and no easy answers. Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSoxfan1986 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 All comes down to player development. The teams that develop players win. Sox haven't done a good job of that for 10-plus years. So instead they're stuck going dumpster diving for guys like Latos, Shields, etc. Things aren't going to change until development does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchetman Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Sox minor league teams went 0-5 today and are now a combined 51 games under .500. Fulmer got rocked again today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 We have the wrong Fulmer. At this point, Brad might be better. Michael definitely is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggsmaggs Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 04:29 PM) This team has more than one problem honestly. Front office, ownership, players, evaluators. All is a problem. This is it right here. There is nothing this organization does well. If you fire Robin (which is completely deserved), you still have our terrible front office. If you fire KW or Hahn, you still have our terrible scouting department. If you do something about that, we have terrible player development. The issue with the White Sox is systemic. Firing Robin is a start but it won't solve the key issues. Honestly, the only hope we have is that Jerry sells the team. That is the only way to get new people all over the organization. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 05:29 PM) This team has more than one problem honestly. Front office, ownership, players, evaluators. All is a problem. Agree. But I know a good place to start. A few weeks ago there was talk the Red Sox and White Sox were both interested in Shields. Obviously both scouted his last few starts in SD. But the Boston papers reported the Red Sox dropped out of the chase because they felt Shields would not be able to pitch in a hitters park like Fenway. Obviously the White Sox scout was not as concerned. I say fire him and offer the Red Sox scout an offer he cannot refuse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (WhiteSoxfan1986 @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 05:16 PM) All comes down to player development. The teams that develop players win. Sox haven't done a good job of that for 10-plus years. So instead they're stuck going dumpster diving for guys like Latos, Shields, etc. Things aren't going to change until development does. That certainly is a problem, but it's better than advertised. There was no reason to dumpster dive for Latos and certainly not Shields. Johnson was an okay 5 (anyone who thought Shields could be more than that should spend their time practicing alchemy) but the pitching coach didn't like him; nor did he like Junior Guerra. Poor roster decisions don't help. Nor does poor talent evaluation. It's near impossible to build a team with veterans when your young core stands at 4. Hahn has since made a number of terrible trades which have exacerbated the problem; but his plan had no chance of success anyway. Hahn may be okay, and he may have been able to build this operation with a sensible plan. But even then, he's got to maneuver through sacred cows like Kenny Williams and Don Cooper....not only does he have to win, he has to keep those 2 happy while doing it. Edited June 20, 2016 by GreenSox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 07:39 PM) That certainly is a problem, but it's better than advertised. There was no reason to dumpster dive for Latos and certainly not Shields. Johnson was an okay 5 (anyone who thought Shields could be more than that should spend their time practicing alchemy) but the pitching coach didn't like him; nor did he like Junior Guerra. Poor roster decisions don't help. Nor does poor talent evaluation. It's near impossible to build a team with veterans when your young core stands at 4. Hahn has since made a number of terrible trades which have exacerbated the problem; but his plan had no chance of success anyway. Hahn may be okay, and he may have been able to build this operation with a sensible plan. But even then, he's got to maneuver through sacred cows like Kenny Williams and Don Cooper....not only does he have to win, he has to keep those 2 happy while doing it. I JOHNSON is horrible. ERA over 10 in SD. The Sox won 8 of Latos 11 starts.ok for 3 million. Juno is starting to show what he is. And he is older than all of the others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 08:49 PM) I JOHNSON is horrible. ERA over 10 in SD. The Sox won 8 of Latos 11 starts.ok for 3 million. Juno is starting to show what he is. And he is older than all of the others. I agree with the comments on EJ. Johnson is not a solution right now for a team that has even the most remote thought of contending. He's a guy that a fully rebuilding team throws out there in the hopes that he can become something in a couple years. If he has to be fully cut loose, then there is no major loss because it won't change the team's status this year. That describes the Padres position accurately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Fireworks Man Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 05:22 PM) Agree. But I know a good place to start. A few weeks ago there was talk the Red Sox and White Sox were both interested in Shields. Obviously both scouted his last few starts in SD. But the Boston papers reported the Red Sox dropped out of the chase because they felt Shields would not be able to pitch in a hitters park like Fenway. Obviously the White Sox scout was not as concerned. I say fire him and offer the Red Sox scout an offer he cannot refuse. Great post. My position on Shields was that if the Sox thought he could be a solid number three starter they should not hesitate to pick up whatever amount of his salary required as long as they didn't have to part with any significant talent to get him. Trading Johnson and Tatis jr. for him would have been a good move with the salary SD picked up if Shields could even perform like a decent number four starter. But what the Sox got in return is a much more expensive pitcher worse than Johnson or Danks. They would have been much better off sticking with Latos. Whoever scouts for the Sox and whoever evaluates talent for them should be fired immediately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 GreenSox, The argument is a lot stronger that we could have won with Semien/Thompson/Montas/Desmond/Uribe or Saladino than the argument Erik Johnson would be a meaningful contributor to our rotation. This isn't Kip Wells, Daniel Hudson, Brandon McCarthy or Gio Gonzalez we're talking about. In the end, Latos actually earned his money, in many respects. It's typical we had to pay top dollar for David Robertson...will probably end up dumping him since a closer at his salary is wasted on our roster...then the player we picked (Burdi) to replace him will arrive too late to make a difference this season, when we could have signed the likes of Fowler or Desmond had we foregone that pick in the first place. So we'll have Burdi/Jones closing for a rebuilding team, and then end up trading them like we did with Reed and Santos. Of course, the returns on those two players were abysmal, one of the many reasons we're in this current predicament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 QUOTE (South Side Fireworks Man @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 07:21 PM) Great post. My position on Shields was that if the Sox thought he could be a solid number three starter they should not hesitate to pick up whatever amount of his salary required as long as they didn't have to part with any significant talent to get him. Trading Johnson and Tatis jr. for him would have been a good move with the salary SD picked up if Shields could even perform like a decent number four starter. But what the Sox got in return is a much more expensive pitcher worse than Johnson or Danks. They would have been much better off sticking with Latos. Whoever scouts for the Sox and whoever evaluates talent for them should be fired immediately. The Red Sox have done some really smart things, besides throwing money around: Being patient with Jackie Bradley, Jr., for one. That has been rewarded. They easily could have taken the Sox route and cut bait early. They also have developed enough minor league talent (Moncada/Benitendi are two of the two 10-15 hitting prospects in the game at the moment) that they can trade for virtually anyone in the world, with the possible exception of Trout. Rangers have done the exact same thing, especially being successful in the Latin America. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanne Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 blow it up!..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 08:25 PM) The Red Sox have done some really smart things, besides throwing money around: Being patient with Jackie Bradley, Jr., for one. That has been rewarded. They easily could have taken the Sox route and cut bait early. They also have developed enough minor league talent (Moncada/Benitendi are two of the two 10-15 hitting prospects in the game at the moment) that they can trade for virtually anyone in the world, with the possible exception of Trout. Rangers have done the exact same thing, especially being successful in the Latin America. What top prospect comparable to Jackie Bradley Jr. Did the Sox cut bait early? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 QUOTE (WhiteSoxfan1986 @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 05:16 PM) All comes down to player development. The teams that develop players win. Sox haven't done a good job of that for 10-plus years. So instead they're stuck going dumpster diving for guys like Latos, Shields, etc. Things aren't going to change until development does. Yeah the Sox didn't develop Sale, Quintana, Rodon and guys like Anderson, Fulmer and Adams don't look to have bright futures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 (edited) Organization top to bottom just one of the worst in baseball. The only reason draft picks have got better is the slotted system. JR before slotted system was the cheapest owner in MLB no team spent less on draft than the Sox not that long ago. That is why the system is so bad overall, Sox still rank in bottom 3rd in MLB. KW is a guy I have no faith in at all, Hahn a chip off the block. JR wanted PK to manage then settled for RV what a disaster. Until JR sells nothing is going to improve sadly. I was a Sox fan before JR bought team and will be a fan long after JR is just a distant memory. Edited June 20, 2016 by Soxfest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 I wouldnt put it past JR to bring in AJ to manage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDWhiteSoxFan Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 It's from top to bottom. This team sucks... but I still love them. But they suck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 The title of this thread is partly right, partly wrong. Any organization that would trade for Shields as they did, when they did, has more problems than talent. I'd say 90 percent of this board knew it was a stupid stupid stupid move to acquire a guy with as bad stuff as Shields at this stage. It should be very interesting to see what they do with him. I mean you get rocked as much as he's been rocked, 2-3 more outings like that and you have to do something. It's like that year the Giants acquired that starting pitcher, I forget his name, who immediately turned to crap. They kept trotting him out there to get rocked game after game just cause of $$$. He was a lefty I believe. Name escapes me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 19, 2016 -> 11:14 PM) The title of this thread is partly right, partly wrong. Any organization that would trade for Shields as they did, when they did, has more problems than talent. I'd say 90 percent of this board knew it was a stupid stupid stupid move to acquire a guy with as bad stuff as Shields at this stage. It should be very interesting to see what they do with him. I mean you get rocked as much as he's been rocked, 2-3 more outings like that and you have to do something. It's like that year the Giants acquired that starting pitcher, I forget his name, who immediately turned to crap. They kept trotting him out there to get rocked game after game just cause of $$$. He was a lefty I believe. Name escapes me. Barry Zito? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 (edited) Except Zito was signed to one of the largest free agent contracts of that time period....and he ended up staying with the Giants for the duration of it (as far as I recall), despite bouncing back and forth between relieving and starting and largely being ineffective for most of it. Edited June 20, 2016 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Thanks guys I did mean Zito. He got rocked and rocked and rocked. It was ugly. Wonder if Sox will hang Shields out to dry like that or make him a meaningless middle reliever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harkness99 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 All these people going on and on about "Home grown" talent... That's not really it. The reason the White Sox have been bad is their failure/bad luck in there free agent signings. It's a combo of many different things. A manager who never wanted to be a manger... going after home run hitters that can't make contact... Bad offense... bad offense... bad bull pen... bad offense... bad bull pen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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