Levine: Sox won't offer more than 7 years for either player

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

I think you took what I said wrong.  I was saying that Jack was wrong in saying they've been too risky with their acquisitions.

I wasn't saying they were too risky per se, just there is considerable risk with everyone. When you have amassed the amount of high ceiling talent the Sox have, in a best case scenario out of 10 players, 2 are superstars, 2 are perrennial All Stars, 2 are average major leaguers and the other 4 completely wash out. 

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No I think almost their entire top 10 as of Jan 2018 was extreme ceiling extreme risk guys. The variance of outcomes with the majority of the Sox prospects other than Eloy and Dunning are wild. Any hitter could be a star 5+WAR player or a bust and any pitcher could be an ace or a complete washout. 

That's pretty much every prospect.  Also, if the Sox fail to develop more than 1 or 2 quality players from their system right now, then this whole thing is/was never going to work.

[Eminor3rd]

33 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't think that's his critique at all. 

Correct. 

35 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

People are bored of the rebuild by now, even though it was what they asked for two years ago.  They are also green-eyed about a certain team across town.  We all knew this would be a process and I think a lot of people got way too excited about the thrill of the hunt for these top two players.  The odds were never in our favor.  We are District 13 right now.

I’m talking about the intrigue of the market at large. Because the media industry has made news cycle so insanely small, it just doesn’t fit the pace of the free agent market. We expect more updates than really happen, and so writers have started to speculate and prognosticate and look further into the future than ever before. This free agent period has literally been in the background of our media awareness for over two years, and it’s been in the forefront of team-building discussion for some teams as early as July. The story has been alive in a very real way for five months, despite almost nothing, actually HAPPENING to move it forward. There was some actual news when teams started to admit to being in the race, and a bit more when the players actually started meeting. The media has just been making shit up literally every day otherwise. They are obligated to say stuff when there’s nothing to say, and it just doesn’t have the right effect.

The story just isn’t progressing at anything close to a reasonable pace for human consumption, as a story. I have no reasonable solution for this, and I’m not even sure if it’s fair for one to exist. I’m just pushing back against the images of drama and theater that the media has been selling is with this stuff. 

[Jack Parkman]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We did add a lot of payroll, guys like Thome and Javy.

How can you think you don’t have enough pitching when you enter the year with Contreras (the best pitcher in baseball during that stretch), Buehrle, Garcia, Garland, Javy and Brandon McCarthy.

You remember how expensive that rotation was...?

If anything, Cotts and Politte not repeating should have been expected.  But if it was THAT easy, the Cubs would have won the last two World Series titles to go with 2016.

I wasn't really talking about 2005-06, More so 2001-04 and 2010 and 2012.  01-03 is where it really hurts. 2004 both Frank and Maggs got hurt mid season so that is just shit luck. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

That's pretty much every prospect.  Also, if the Sox fail to develop more than 1 or 2 quality players from their system right now, then this whole thing is/was never going to work.

Not really. Some pitchers don't have ace stuff, and some hitters don't have the power or contact skills to be that good either. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

No I think almost their entire top 10 as of Jan 2018 was extreme ceiling extreme risk guys. The variance of outcomes with the majority of the Sox prospects other than Eloy and Dunning are wild. Any hitter could be a star 5+WAR player or a bust and any pitcher could be an ace or a complete washout. 

Hence, 2 other pitchers to go along with Giolito.  The problem is you can’t have all the washouts like the 2000 prospect list.  

Despite that, almost every team in recent history with a Baseball America Top 3 overall prospect group has made the playoffs within 5 years.

[bmags]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

It is slowly starting to happen, though the traffic jams at the lowest levels are making it harder to see them.

The positive thing that hahn has going for him that kw did not, is the cba changes have estaablisehd cost certainty for both latin america and amateur drafting allow sox to finally be on equal footing.

But the negative thing is those changes may have been possible due to the influence JR gets by "walking the walk" in playing by the spirit of the rules before they are formally enforced (i.e. never going over suggested slot value before there was an enforced budget, never breaking the latin american limit until there was an established alternative presented in the cba), but it prevented the sox, I believe, in getting what would have been a huge huge boost to the rebuild: 

Imagine if in 2015 or 2016 the sox had one of the budget breaking 20-30 player latin american classes coming through the ranks?

The counterpoint will be that Robert was that, but had he not been available after those Cba changes, that was on par to be another  on budget class and the sox would have spent all of those years having never really splurged despite huge opportunities to do so with a dwindling market of teams available to spend.

And though they have said they believe in quantity not quality in players that age, it hasn't borne itself out that impressively. 

I was more bullish on that 2016 class than anyone. But there are already players from that class making waves. Eventually, you have to say "why is our luck so much worse than everyone elses"?

Anyway I love Robert,  but that dude really really needs to pan out.

[Jack Parkman]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Hence, 2 other pitchers to go along with Giolito.  The problem is you can’t have all the washouts like the 2000 prospect list.  

Despite that, almost every team in recent history with a Baseball America Top 3 overall prospect group has made the playoffs within 5 years.

2000 is what I'm fearful of, but injuries had a lot to do with that. Those pitchers blew out shoulders instead of elbows, and that is what cost them their careers. A pitcher can recover from TJS. Shoulder surgery is usually a death sentence. 

The thing the Sox have going for them is they have 3 players who once received a 70 FV grade(Moncada/Giolito) 1 who received a 65 grade (Eloy) and 2 that received a 60 ( Kopech and Robert) with both Cease and Madrigal having the potential to get to 60 FV by their MLB debut. 

They have a ton of high end talent. 

With both Moncada and Giolito, the talent is still there, but the results aren't even close to their talent yet. (I'll continue to say this about both until I'm blue in the face because I truly believe it....for now) 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Dam8610]

19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Disagree. I think he's boom-bust based on extra base power and lack of walks. Madrigal has to hit 40-50 2B and 8-12 3B along with 8-12 HR,  and has to hit .320 annually for it to be a hit. 

You're describing a borderline MVP candidate. You think that's what Madrigal has to be to be a success?

[DirtySox]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

You're describing a borderline MVP candidate. You think that's what Madrigal has to be to be a success?

Aw you beat me to this. That surely was the best JP hot take I've read in a while.

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

The positive thing that hahn has going for him that kw did not, is the cba changes have estaablisehd cost certainty for both latin america and amateur drafting allow sox to finally be on equal footing.

But the negative thing is those changes may have been possible due to the influence JR gets by "walking the walk" in playing by the spirit of the rules before they are formally enforced (i.e. never going over suggested slot value before there was an enforced budget, never breaking the latin american limit until there was an established alternative presented in the cba), but it prevented the sox, I believe, in getting what would have been a huge huge boost to the rebuild: 

Imagine if in 2015 or 2016 the sox had one of the budget breaking 20-30 player latin american classes coming through the ranks?

The counterpoint will be that Robert was that, but had he not been available after those Cba changes, that was on par to be another  on budget class and the sox would have spent all of those years having never really splurged despite huge opportunities to do so with a dwindling market of teams available to spend.

And though they have said they believe in quantity not quality in players that age, it hasn't borne itself out that impressively. 

I was more bullish on that 2016 class than anyone. But there are already players from that class making waves. Eventually, you have to say "why is our luck so much worse than everyone elses"?

Anyway I love Robert,  but that dude really really needs to pan out.

Still, getting Tatis Jr. and Robert out of a 2-3 year cycle is better than every team out there except the Padres and maybe Braves.

The obvious and unresolved problem is the Dominican Republic.  We’ve been shut out for seemingly 15 years...who was our last guy internally developed, Jesus Pena?   That’s pretty terrible. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

19 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

You're describing a borderline MVP candidate. You think that's what Madrigal has to be to be a success?

I don't even think a player like that would even be in the MVP conversation, but whatever. Above average to star, yes. MVP, not even close.

Go look at what Altuve did to win MVP, just as a reminder. 

What I hope Madrigal becomes is a .320 annual hitter, with 30-40 2B 5-10 3B and 5-10 HR with 25-30 SB. 

In any event, he has to get a LOT of doubles, triples and steals if he's not hitting HRs and not hitting .320. 

If Madrigal hits .290 annually with a .330 OBP with 25 2B, 5-8 3B and 25 SB, I don't think baseball would value him that much, maybe league average average at best. Power is valued very highly right now. You do realize that the guy I mentioned above is basically Alexei Ramirez without the power and with a  few more hits, steals and walks? The only thing Madrigal has going for him is his position in this case. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Jack Parkman
Clarity

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Still, getting Tatis Jr. and Robert out of a 2-3 year cycle is better than every team out there except the Padres and maybe Braves.

The obvious and unresolved problem is the Domincan Republic.  We’ve been shut out for seemingly 15 years...who was our last guy internally developed, Jesus Pena?   That’s pretty terrible. 

This is a fair point. 

[DirtySox]

If anyone wants to listen.

[Dam8610]

15 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't even think a player like that would even be in the MVP conversation, but whatever. Above average to star, yes. MVP, not even close.

Go look at what Altuve did to win MVP, just as a reminder. 

What I hope Madrigal becomes is a .320 annual hitter, with 30-40 2B 5-10 3B and 5-10 HR with 25-30 SB. 

In any event, he has to get a LOT of doubles, triples and steals if he's not hitting HRs and not hitting .320. 

If Madrigal hits .290 annually with a .330 OBP with 25 2B, 5-8 3B and 25 SB, I don't think baseball would value him that much, maybe league average average at best. Power is valued very highly right now. You do realize that the guy I mentioned above is basically Alexei Ramirez without the power and with a  few more hits, steals and walks? The only thing Madrigal has going for him is his position in this case. 

You described Dustin Pedroia in his 2008 MVP season.

[chitownsportsfan]

24 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't even think a player like that would even be in the MVP conversation, but whatever. Above average to star, yes. MVP, not even close.

Go look at what Altuve did to win MVP, just as a reminder. 

What I hope Madrigal becomes is a .320 annual hitter, with 30-40 2B 5-10 3B and 5-10 HR with 25-30 SB. 

In any event, he has to get a LOT of doubles, triples and steals if he's not hitting HRs and not hitting .320. 

If Madrigal hits .290 annually with a .330 OBP with 25 2B, 5-8 3B and 25 SB, I don't think baseball would value him that much, maybe league average average at best. Power is valued very highly right now. You do realize that the guy I mentioned above is basically Alexei Ramirez without the power and with a  few more hits, steals and walks? The only thing Madrigal has going for him is his position in this case. 

People use WAR dude.  Even meatheads on TV.  

And Alexei took about 10 walks a year so his average was basically his OBP.  If Madrigal is that, well fuck.  You basically described a 6 WAR SS in your first post and a 3 WAR one in your 2nd.  

[fathom]

Anyone watch Passan interview?

[Jack Parkman]

15 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

People use WAR dude.  Even meatheads on TV.  

And Alexei took about 10 walks a year so his average was basically his OBP.  If Madrigal is that, well fuck.  You basically described a 6 WAR SS in your first post and a 3 WAR one in your 2nd.  

I know, but I use traditional stats when necessary or relevant to the conversation. Average, XBH and steals are of utmost importance when talking about Madrigal, just as how average is extremely important when talking about Moncada. if Madrigal racks up the XBH and SB, and hits over .300 the WAR will take care of itself, just as how Moncada makes incredibly loud contact so if he gets his hits the WAR will take care of itself. They are two players where traditional stats>SABR stats, because there are one or two traditional stats that both players are completely dependent on if they're going to be >2 WAR players. 

Long story short, for Moncada if he gets hits, the WAR will take care of itself, and for Madrigal if he gets XBH and hits  >.300, the WAR will take care of itself. I expect both players to rack up 25+ SB per season.  

Madrigal doesn't walk either really. He'll walk more than 10 times, but I wouldn't count on Madrigal walking more than 20-30 times per season. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Whisox05]

 

 

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, aeichhor said:

 

 

So is he saying the top bids are much lower than we have been lead to believe?

[fathom]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

So is he saying the top bids are much lower than we have been lead to believe?

It would seem so or maybe Sox are offering a huge AAV?  Either way, it’s not a bad thing he believes this.

[Lillian]

For me, if Madrigal cannot put up an OBP above .350, given his lack of power, he will not be a sufficiently productive player. I expect him to ultimately produce somewhere around Yolmer's 2018 stat line, with a higher OBP and fewer strike outs.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

So is he saying the top bids are much lower than we have been lead to believe?

Reading between the lines, yes. It seems that the top bids are much lower in years and dollars than we all expected. 

Maybe the Sox and Phillies are the only teams willing to go past 5 years. It could be that the Yankees(for Machado) and Dodgers/Cubs(for Harper) are only willing to go 3-5 years because they are almost 100% sure they're going to opt out anyway. They could be hedging their bet against injury. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

For me, if Madrigal cannot put up an OBP above .350, given his lack of power, he will not be a sufficiently productive player. I expect him to ultimately produce somewhere around Yolmer's 2018 stat line, with a higher OBP and fewer strike outs.

If he hits .320 that is a given. Don't get me wrong, I like Madrigal but his lack of pop concerns me. I thought it was better than what he showed in A ball at the end of the season. 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Dick Allen]

15 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If he hits .320 that is a given. Don't get me wrong, I like Madrigal but his lack of pop concerns me. I thought it was better than what he showed in A ball at the end of the season. 

The 2 highest wAR  full time 2B last season where Merrifield and Altuve. One hit 12 homers, the other 13. This kid is a clever hitter who is only going to get stronger. And his defense is described as golf glove quality. Plus, he knows how to run the bases, something the White Sox have difficulty teaching.  I think people put too much stock in his numbers last year. He had a lot going on including recovering from a hand injury.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Dick Allen